Fight day is officially upon us and it is the last pay per view of the year. UFC 269 is a massive card filled to the brim with exciting individuals, great matchups, important fights in terms of the rankings, and of course 2 titles being defended to cap it off. This is a pretty large card, which we need because the last month has been pretty rough for me. This is shaping up to be a great night of fights, which is great for entertainment purposes, but for this, it means a lot of fights that can sort of go either way. Despite a good start to this series, I've had some rough weeks recently, but we need a good finish to the year. I'll restart my record after the final UFC card next week and use the winning percentage as a comparison for each year that we end up doing this. Just to be clear, my picks will be in the bolded font, and the real results will be listed next to it in italics after the fight is official. Let's start.
Gillian Robertson defeats Priscila Cachoeira Result: Robertson by sub (1-0)
This is a striker vs grappler matchup and I'll lean to the side of the grappler here. Robertson's striking isn't great, but she does minimize damage by absorbing about 2.5 strikes per minute. Cachoeira is the striker, but she just absorbs way too much damage. She lands 3.81 strikes per minute, but is absorbing more than 7. Cachoeira has never landed a takedown and defends them at 61%. Robertson gets over 2.5 per 15 minutes with a success rate of 47%. I like Robertson's skill set a little bit more in this one.
Randy Costa defeats Tony Kelley Result: Kelley by TKO (1-1)
This should be a pretty exciting fight between two strikers who throw a lot and get hit a lot. This one probably won't go the distance either. Kelley actually absorbs more than he lands, but it's about even for him (4.57 landed and 4.77 absorbed). Costa lands over 8 strikes a minute, but absorbs just under 7 a minute. I think Costa is a little more dynamic and he has a 3 inch reach advantage. Combine that with him being busier and I think he has the edge.
Ryan Hall defeats Darrick Minner Result: Hall by decision (2-1)
Picking Ryan Hall fights is never fun because his skill set is so narrow. His striking is very rudimentary and he only lands takedowns at an 11% rate. The problem is his BJJ is second to none and he can submit basically anyone on the planet. Hall's striking defense is also pretty good so he avoids damage on the feet when the fight is there. Unfortunately for Minner, his offense is very reliant on the takedown, which he is very good at, hitting them with 70% success and averaging over 3 per 15 minutes. Landing those takedowns will go right into Hall's world and spending a vast majority of 15 minutes on the ground with Ryan Hall is asking to be submitted. If Minner opts to try and win a striking battle, then I honestly have no idea how this fight will go, so that's fun. I'll go with Hall by submission.
Alex Perez defeats Matt Schnell Result: Fight cancelled due to Schnell medical problem
This fight should be a fun one. I think Perez has the edge in both the striking and grappling, but that's not to say Schnell is just going to get run over. Perez is a little more active in the striking, while absorbing less damage on a per minute basis. Perez also hits just under 3 takedowns per 15 minutes at a 47% success rate and defends takedowns at an 87% rate. Schnell doesn't do much offensive wrestling and has 50% takedown defense. On the feet, his strikes landed and absorbed are basically equal, but he will have a 5 inch reach advantage, so if he can take advantage of that, he has a chance. I'll go with Perez's more well rounded skillset.
Miranda Maverick defeats Erin Blanchfield Result: Blanchfield by decision (2-2)
I like Maverick both in this fight and as a prospect overall. The stats are a little deceiving in this one because Blanchfield only has 1 UFC fight, which was a pretty dominant victory over Sarah Alpar. I'm not going to bother listing her stats because since they only come from 1 fight, which was dominant, they make her look like the most unbeatable force the world has ever seen. Maverick has legitimate skills in both the standup and on the ground and it's gotten wins over legitimate UFC veteran competition more than once. I expect her to get the win in this one.
Andre Muniz defeats Eryk Anders Result: Muniz by sub (3-2)
This will be an interesting grappling matchup. Anders is more active on the feet and probably has the power advantage, but he absorbs more strikes than he lands per minute. Muniz doesn't land as much, but he absorbs even less. Muniz lands over 3 takedowns per 15 minutes, while Anders lands 1.76 per 15 minutes. Muniz lands his takedowns at a slightly higher percentage, but Anders has significantly better takedown defense at 76%, while Muniz's is only 40%. Muniz has the better submission game and I think that could be the difference in this one.
Bruno Silva defeats Jordan Wright Result: Silva by KO (4-2)
This fight should take place entirely on the feet as neither fighter has ever successfully completed a takedown in the UFC. Wright lands over 7 strikes per minute, but also absorbs over 7 a minute and has shown a shaky chin at times. Silva on the other hand lands over 5 strikes per minute, but he absorbs less than 2 a minute. I think that will be the difference and gives Silva the advantage.
Tai Tuivasa defeats Augusto Sakai Result: Tuivasa by KO (5-2)
Another fight that should take place entirely on the feet. I have to admit this one is personal. I picked against Jamahal Hill last week despite wanting to pick him and I'm not making that mistake again. This is a typical heavyweight striking battle. Whoever lands flush first will likely get the win. I like Tai a lot and he's been on a good run of late, so I'll take him.
Dominick Cruz defeats Pedro Munhoz Result: Cruz by decision (6-2)
This is one of my most anticipated fights on the card. Cruz is a legend, but the question is what does he have left? I was surprised to see that Munhoz absorbs more strikes than he lands. Cruz is in the positive there, but he's way less active in terms of strikes landed per minute. Cruz's movement and striking defense is one of the best MMA has ever seen and he'll need it here. I think Cruz is the more well rounded fighter and I think his ability to effectively land shots, avoid his opponents, and mix in the takedowns will allow him to do enough to edge out a decision.
Josh Emmett defeats Dan Ige Result: Emmett by decision (7-2)
This fight is so even. Emmett lands a little more, but also absorbs a little more. The grappling stats are basically even and I don't think either guy really wants to grapple anyways. Ige has been a little up and down. Emmett was in the midst of a good streak, but suffered an injury in his win over Shane Burgos that has kept him out for awhile now. Despite that, I think Emmett has a power advantage, so I'll use that as a reason to lean towards him ever so slightly. Should be a great fight and could honestly go either way.
Sean O'Malley defeats Raulian Paiva Result: O'Malley by TKO (8-2)
Another purely striking battle. Paiva absorbs slightly more strikes than he lands, which probably isn't a strategy that will serve him well in this matchup. Sean does get hit more than you may think, absorbing 3.59 strikes per minute, but he lands over 8 strikes a minute. Sean is more dynamic and has the advantage in both the power and reach. Sean's leg health has been a problem on multiple occasions, but assuming his legs hold up, I like him to get the win this time out.
Kai Kara-France defeats Cody Garbrandt Result: Kara-France by TKO (9-2)
Garbrandt will be cutting to 125 lbs for the first time in a matchup that doesn't favor him. Cody absorbs more than he lands and is unlikely to land a takedown. Kara-France is also unlikely to land a takedown, but is more active in landing strikes, while absorbing less. Combine the first time getting to 125 for Cody with a 4 inch reach advantage for Kara-France and that leads me to picking Kai Kara-France to win. Also, fun fact - Cody Garbrandt is the only UFC fighter I have ever met in person and he was a very friendly guy.
Santiago Ponzinibbio defeats Geoff Neal Result: Neal by decision (9-3)
This one is kind of a weird one. This fight is so even. Neal absorbs a little more than he lands and Ponzinibbio lands a little more than he absorbs per minute, but those numbers are almost all the same. Neither will be looking to wrestle offensively and have at least solid takedown defense anyways. Neal has lost 2 in a row and was arrested last week, so the momentum suggests Ponzinibbio and that's where I'll go with this one.
Amanda Nunes defeats Julianna Pena Result: Pena by sub (9-4)
Pena is a legitimate fighter with lots of skills that make her dangerous. The problem is that she's a good fighter facing the best in the world today. Standing with Nunes is a bad idea for anyone and I don't think Pena's 53% takedown offense with 0.8 submission attempts per 15 minutes is enough to control Nunes for 3 of 5 to get a decision or finish her with a submission. I think Nunes probably wins inside the distance in this one. She's just too good.
Charles Oliveira defeats Dustin Poirier Result: Oliveira by sub (10-4)
I've gone back and forth on this one at least 5 times. I still don't know if I'll change it again before I have this go live. Spoiler alert: this is coming out late because I had to rewrite this section because I changed my mind. I gave every stat and possibility in my full preview, so I won't go through it here. I think Oliveira has the more diverse set of skills. I also don't like how emotional Poirier looked at the weigh in last night. We've heard fighters say that before and Oliveira looked calm. I'm taking him and hitting publish so I don't have time to change my mind again.
Alright guys, that's it for this one. I'm really hoping this week goes different for me. Let me know if you're riding with me or fading me. Leave your picks in the comments below for any and all fights. I want to know how you feel about them. Thanks for reading and enjoy the fights. As always, I'll be back to update this and provide my year to date rankings sometime after the event.
UPDATE:
First of all, what a night of fights. That card was really great basically from beginning to end. Most importantly, I finally got back on track with these picks. Of my 4 losses, one was the 4th biggest upset in the history of the UFC and another was a split decision, so I'm even happier with the way things went. Obviously, Amanda Nunes losing her title is the most shocking loss, but Miranda Maverick being dominated in the way she was really surprised me. I knew Blanchfield was a legitimate prospect, but with just 1 UFC win over Sarah Alpar before this was really eye opening to me. The Ponzinibbio loss doesn't bother me, that fight was pretty even and was honestly maybe one of the worst fights of the night (that says more about the card than the fight). Losing Randy Costa was unfortunate as I'm a fan of his, but seeing how the fight was playing out, it wasn't all that surprising either.
As for my wins, I feel like I ended up going with mostly favorites early on, so there's nothing to really brag about there. I did sort of hint at method of victory for Muniz and Tuivasa, so if you want to give me credit for that then I'll take it. I did straight up say Cruz by decision so I will be taking that credit. I did hit 2 underdog wins on the main card with Kai Kara-France and Charles Oliveira, so those look pretty good too. Overall, I'm happy with my performance as well as being very pleased with the night of fights.
Weekly Record: 10-4
Previous Year to Date Record: 34-29
Updated Year to Date Record: 44-33
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