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UFC Vegas 44 Full Card Picks

Alright guys, it's been a little while since I've done one of these and I think that might actually be for the best. I've consistently declined since starting this exercise and the Tate vs Vieira card predictions were just horrible. However, with having last week off and entering the month of December, hopefully that's the reset that I needed to get back on track. I do apologize if you've been following my picks for betting purposes and if you've been fading me then congratulations. Just to be clear, my picks will be in the bolded font, and the real results will be listed next to it in italics after the fight is official. Let's get back on track this week with a solid showing. 

Louis Smolka defeats Vince Morales                Result: Morales by KO/TKO (0-1)

        I like Smolka to come out victorious in this one. He's a little more active in the striking than Morales while taking less damage on average. Smolka doesn't have great takedown defense, but Morales doesn't do much offensive wrestling. Smolka could potentially take this to the ground also if he wants. I favor him slightly both on the feet and on the ground. Should be his fight to lose.

Azamat Murzakanov defeats Jared Vanderaa         Result: Fight cancelled 

        No matter which way I pick this one, it will go the other way. Vanderaa took this fight on short notice, but he's going to have a huge size advantage. Murzakanov was preparing for a light heavyweight fight, but now will have to fight up a weight class against someone who weighs in right at the limit. Vanderaa has been up and down in the UFC, so I'll take Murzakanov's power to get it done early. 

Claudio Puelles defeats Chris Gruetzemacher        Result: Puelles by sub (1-1)

        Classic striker vs grappler match up in this one. Puelles has a ton of control time in his wins and we've seen Gruetzemacher get taken down even in fights that he wins. I can't say I feel great about this one either way, which is why the betting lines are so close. If it stays on the feet, Puelles will likely lose, but I'll lean towards his grappling ability here.

Alonzo Menifield defeats William Knight                Result: Knight by decision (1-2)

        Should be another interesting, close fight here. Menifield is a little more active on the feet and absorbs a little more damage. Knight is more patient in the striking, throwing and absorbing less shots. However, Knight's striking defense by percentage is only 34%, which is less than ideal. Knight has the offensive wrestling advantage, but Menifield has 85% takedown defense, so I think he can keep it standing. I think the stats lean towards Menifield and so will I.

Cheyanne Vlismas defeats Mallory Martin                Result: Vlismas by decision (2-2)

        Another striker vs grappler matchup here, but I'll go with the striker this time. Vlismas lands over 4 strikes per minute, while absorbing less than 2 per minute. Martin is busy on the feet, but absorbs over 1 strike per minute more than she lands. Martin is aggressive in her takedowns, getting over 3 per 15 minutes and gets them at a 63% rate. Vlismas defends takedowns at a 60% rate, so she can be taken down. Despite her willingness to grapple, Martin has been submitted in 2 of her 3 UFC fights, so I'll lean Vlismas.

Jeremiah Wells defeats Jake Matthews                    Result: Fight cancelled

        I think this fight will actually be pretty close. It should be relatively even on the feet in terms of volume. Matthews lands 3.03 and Wells lands 3.82 strikes per minute, while Matthews absorbs 2.16 and Wells absorbs 2.73 strikes per minute. Matthews does have decent offensive wrestling, but Wells has a 100% takedown defense, so I think it will stay standing. I believe Wells has the power advantage, so I think he can do more damage and get the win.

Bryan Barberena defeats Darian Weeks                Result: Barberena by decision (3-2)

        Tough one to predict as Weeks is taking this on only a few days notice and we know very little about him. Weeks is 5-0 in MMA and 1-1 in boxing, so striking his definitely his preferred route. Barberena we know wants to strike as well, so this should be on all on the feet. Barberena hasn't been outstanding of late, but a vast majority of his losses come against really high level competition. I have to take his experience over someone fighting their 8th professional combat sports bout on a few days notice.

Manel Kape defeats Zhalgas Zhumagulov            Result: Kape by KO/TKO (4-2)

        Admittedly don't feel great about this one. The stats point towards Zhumagulov being a more active striker, while absorbing less damage. He also has better offensive wrestling, but Kape's 80% takedown defense should be good enough to deal with that. Kape absorbs more than he lands, but that has been due to him seeming really hesitant in his first few UFC bouts. He's the much more explosive and dynamic athlete, as we saw in his last knockout win. I think he's better than Zhumagulov, but he has to let his striking flow without the hesitancy. 

Dusko Todorovic defeats Maki Pitolo                    Result: Todorovic by KO/TKO (5-2)

        I don't expect this fight to last very long, regardless of which way it goes. We've seen both guys be finished in their recent past. Pitolo is on a 3 fight losing streak coming into this one as well. Todorovic is more active on the feet, but takes more damage. Pitolo has the grappling advantage, but I don't know if it's significant enough to make too much of a difference. He may also have the power advantage, but I'll lean with Todorovic's activity on the feet to be the difference.

Alex Morono defeats Mickey Gall                            Result: Morono by decision (6-2)

        Morono is on a little bit of a run winning 3 of his last 4 and he has a good chance to make it 4 of 5 here. He'll have the striking advantage and will use volume over power. Gall isn't a high level striker and absorbs more shots than he lands on a per minute basis. Gall will be looking to wrestle, but only lands his takedowns at a 28% rate. Morono doesn't have great takedown defense at 52%, but I think it will be enough to keep this one standing and he'll be able to get the win.

Brendan Allen defeats Chris Curtis                            Result: Curtis by KO/TKO (6-3)

        We saw Curtis with the big upset a few weeks ago, but I don't think he'll be able to repeat in this quick turn around. Allen is a better fighter than Phil Hawes, who was dominating Curtis up until he landed the shot that knocked Hawes out. Of course the same could happen here, but I think Allen is better in both the stand up and grappling, so all signs point to this being his fight to lose.

Leonardo Santos defeats Clay Guida                        Result: Guida by sub (6-4)

        Picking against Guida always makes me a little uneasy, but I think Santos should be able to get the win in this one. He was on a really nice streak before losing his last fight. Both guys absorb more shots than they land in the striking and rely on takedowns that they get at a low success rate. We know Guida's cardio is still in a really good spot, but I'll take the younger, more athletic Santos.

Jimmy Crute defeats Jamahal Hill                            Result: Hill by KO/TKO (6-5)

        I'm really high on both of these fighters, but I think Crute is more well rounded right now. Hill has good power and a noticeable reach advantage, so he could certainly get a knockout win, but I think Crute's wrestling will be the difference. Hill was submitted by Paul Craig (technically a TKO, but if you saw what happened you know what I'm talking about), and Crute has high level submissions, while landing his takedowns with an 80% success rate. I think he can grind out a win on the ground with the potential for a submission finish. Also, Jamahal Hill has one of the most underrated nicknames in the game right now, just wanted to put that on record.

Brad Riddell defeats Rafael Fiziev                            Result: Fiziev by KO/TKO (6-6)

        Fiziev is the better athlete, but I think Riddell is the more well rounded fighter. This fight will be pretty even on the feet, but Fiziev I think is a little faster. Riddell has the better wrestling, if he can get past Fiziev's good takedown defense. I'll take Riddell's proven cardio and chin strength after seeing him get the win in a back and forth battle with Drew Dober, where in Fiziev's last fight, we saw him gas at the end against Bobby Green.

Rob Font defeats Jose Aldo                                        Result: Aldo by decision (6-7)

        This fight will almost certainly be an all stand up contest. I would expect it to look pretty even early on, but I think Font will use his pace and pressure to eat at Aldo's gas tank. We've seen Aldo gas even in his prime, down a weight class and several years older, I think Font can get him tired and pull ahead in the later rounds, potentially getting a finish.

Alright guys, there's the full card with my picks. We need to get back on track this week and I honestly feel much more at peace with my selections than I have the last few cards. There's a lot of close fights on this one, but I feel like my choices are based in sound logic. Even if we get some tough luck losses, I trust my process this week. 

What do you guys think? Leave your picks for any and all fights below. Let me know if you're riding with me or fading my picks. Also leave any suggestions in the comments. If there's a topic that you guys want me to discuss then I want to deliver on that. Enjoy the fights after a week off and as always, I'll post an update after the card is finished with an updated record and yearly record, which is almost through. Thanks for reading and have a good Saturday.

UPDATE: 

Truly unbelievable. Got off to such a hot start with the lesser known fighters and then got burned on the main card. I can't even be mad honestly. I picked with my head instead of my heart in the Jimmy Crute fight as I'm a huge believer in Jamahal Hill. Chris Curtis got the upset again on short notice. Clay Guida came back from the dead after almost being finished multiple times in the first against Santos. Riddell was probably losing the fight even if he didn't get finished, so that one is unfortunate. I can't even be upset with Aldo winning because him fighting Dillashaw next is great theater. I did think Menifield got the short end of the stick in his fight, I thought he should've got the win over William Knight, but that's how it goes sometimes. I'm trusting the process and chalking some of these up to bad luck this week. I know I haven't been great in like a month, but I feel like I did a lot of good this week and then just got some bad breaks in a few fights that take a mediocre week to a pretty solid one. If Keith Peterson stops the Guida fight, the judges give Menifield the decision, and I pick Jamahal Hill like I wanted to, this week looks a lot different for me, but here we are.

Weekly Record: 6-7

Yearly Record: 28-22

New Record to date: 34-29

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