This division is so weird to me. A lot of people say that this is the best division in the UFC and it really confuses me. To me, this division is dominated by Alex Volkanovski and Max Holloway and then there's a huge gap before there's a lot of guys who are good fighters, but don't really seem to be on the level of those two right now with an exception or two. I'm of the opinion that we should not be limited by the trilogy format and that if two fighters are clearly the best two in the weight class, they should fight for the title as many times as necessary until they are no longer the best two. Now, I don't mean that Max and Volk should fight each other exclusively for 6 fights in a row, but if each guy fights 2 more times after this next fight and they're both sitting at the top again, why should they not be able to fight a fourth time? I don't fully understand it and regardless of who wins the trilogy fight in March, I think we will be in a position where a fourth fight makes sense in early 2023. Anyways, let's just get into the breakdown.
Champion - Alexander Volkanovski
I think Alex Volkanovski may be the most underrated champion in the UFC. He's such a good fighter and so well rounded that I think it actually bores people in a way. It's like he's so good that people don't even care because they just expect him to win. When I do my overall P4P rankings, Volk will come in pretty high. He's an incredible athlete who has been able to stand with Max Holloway for long stretches on the feet, survive the ground game with Brian Ortega, and is a cardio machine. He really doesn't have any weaknesses. I honestly think what holds him back is that Max Holloway is also an amazing fighter, who has a larger fan base. If Max Holloway were to move up to lightweight or if in some multiverse situation Max wasn't in the UFC, I think we would view Volkanovski in the same light as Kamaru Usman and Israel Adesanya. I have nothing bad to say about Volkanovski and can't wait for the trilogy.
Next Challenger - Max Holloway
Max Holloway is one of the best fighters in the entire UFC and is also one of the most well liked. His massive fan base is a major factor in why Alex Volkanovski doesn't get as much credit as he probably should. Max fights in a much more particular way than Volk as well, which sort of gives him a signature, which helps as well. Volkanovski is so well rounded and good, that he doesn't really force anything on his opponents, but just takes advantage of whatever weaknesses they have. Holloway imposes his will on his opponents and uses what is, in my opinion, the most entertaining style to watch in MMA. Max is a volume striker to the highest degree and is primarily a boxer. He doesn't throw a ton of kicks and doesn't shoot for a ton of takedowns, even though he has them in his arsenal. Holloway is a great fighter who has really met his match when it comes to Volkanovski. They are so even that they could fight 100 times and each guy would probably win 50 of them. I can't wait for this fight and if it was up to me, this wouldn't be the last time we see it either.
Contenders - Giga Chikadze, Chan Sung Jung, Josh Emmett
Giga is the guy on this list who has sort of separated himself. If Giga beats Calvin Kattar on the 15th of this month, he'll likely be next in line for the title shot. He's an incredible striker and is on an equally incredible run. I like his skillset a lot even though we haven't seen much of his grappling and I think the UFC may need him to win against Kattar. If he comes up short, there really isn't an obvious choice for the winner of the trilogy. Giga is on a meteoric rise and I think he can find himself in a title fight as soon as the middle of 2022. This category was pretty hard to fill out because Giga has sort of distanced himself as long as he gets the win, but I think Korean Zombie probably fits. He's won 2 of his last 3 with the loss coming to Brian Ortega. He's going to need at least one more win to get the title shot, but I think with that, he may have done enough. That's especially the case if the fight comes against Josh Emmett. Emmett returned after a long injury layoff to get another win and put himself in a position to fight for a title late in 2022. I think having Zombie and Emmett fight each other makes the most sense for a number one contender fight after Giga vs Kattar. Emmett has 4 wins in a row, so if Giga loses and he can beat Zombie, he could find himself right into a title shot.
Up and Comers - Arnold Allen, Bryce Mitchell, Sodiq Yusuff, and Movsar Evloev
Arnold Allen probably toes the line between this category and the contenders category, but I chose to put him here because the names on his resume aren't quite there just yet. His best win is Sodiq Yusuff, which is a good win, but he likely needs a couple top 10 wins before the general fan base is willing to accept him. However, given the weird status of the division, there does exist a world where Arnold Allen fights for a title with only one more win. If Allen gets a fight against Ortega or Yair Rodriguez and comes away with a win, is there anyone besides Giga who really stands out beyond that. I really like Allen's skillset even though I don't think he's a finished product just yet. He may just be thrust into title fights before his development is fully complete. Bryce Mitchell is very similar in a lot of ways. Mitchell is probably more reliant on his wrestling than Allen, but his upside is very evident. Mitchell needs a step up in competition as do most people in the up and comers section and I think he'll get that in his next time out. Mitchell probably has the biggest fan push out of these fighters so, he may be able to use that to his advantage. Sodiq Yusuff is someone who probably is a little behind the other guys on this list, but I really like his skills. He's found a fair amount of finishes in his career, but he definitely needs some refinement and improvement. I believe in Yusuff's raw talent, which has already got him this far. Even small improvements can get him into the top 10 and if he's able to become more well rounded, he can get into the top 5 and beyond. Movsar Evloev gets more hype than Yusuff and I think that's due to his style. Evloev uses a wrestling heavy approach, which can be smothering at times. This leads to him dominating his opponents for stretches, making him look like a future champion in the eyes of some. His resume doesn't have any great wins, but that should stop soon as he's only going to be getting high level opponents from here on out. I think all of these fighters will be getting big fights and potentially finding themselves with top 10 opportunities in 2022.
Wild Cards - Brian Ortega, Yair Rodriguez, Calvin Kattar, and Henry Cejudo
Ortega finds himself in an unfortunate spot. He's fought for the title in 2 of his last 3 fights and was beaten badly in both of those losses. Absorbing as much damage as he did is not good for someone's health and I don't really know when we should expect to see Ortega again. He's undefeated against anyone who isn't Max Holloway and Alex Volkanovski, but he's going to have to get past one or both of them to get back for a title shot. Ortega's health should be his main concern and the beating he took and injuries suffered in his loss to Holloway and the amount of damage he took in the Volkanovski fight should have Ortega making his next move very carefully. We know he's one of the 5 best in the weight class, but I think he needs to get completely healthy before we see a return. Yair Rodriguez is coming off of a similar situation where he was out of the sport for over 2 years. He returned against Max Holloway in a fight that he lost, but he looked about as good as anyone could have expected. If Yair can put together a win streak in 2022, he could be looking at a title shot as soon as late this year or early 2023, depending how active the champion is. The key will be how active Rodriguez is. He was away for multiple years and suffered some injuries in the Holloway fight that may delay his return again. Calvin Kattar was absolutely battered by Max Holloway in his last appearance and I'm glad he took the time away from the cage to get fully healthy. Unfortunately for him, he's walking in to another incredibly difficult fight with Giga. However, if Kattar can get the win over Giga, he puts himself on the short list of guys looking for a title shot. Kattar primarily uses his striking and his power to get him wins offensively and he does display incredible toughness. He has the base of skills required to get into the top 6, but so far he's struggled to get over that one last hurdle. A win over Giga probably puts him one more win away from a title shot. Henry Cejudo is a true wild card in a sense that we don't even know if he'll fight again. If he does fight again, we don't know what weight it will be at. I think there is a chance that Cejudo gets this title fight because depending on the outcomes of a couple of fights, there may not be a clear number one contender. If Cejudo steps up and wants this fight, he may be the most qualified guy for the shot if a few things break his way. I'm not going to talk too much about it because he's such a wild card it may be a waste of time to spend too much time on him
Prospects - Ilia Topuria, Lerone Murphy, and Charles Jourdain
I think most fans know who Topuria is at this point. He's an incredibly explosive athlete who has more than enough power to knock anyone out. We saw that against Ryan Hall when he was able to put him out cold despite Hall doing his leg lock thing. I expect Topuria to be in the rankings soon and really getting some name value fights. He's fighting Evloev next and a win there would jump start all of this. A lot of what I just said about Topuria also applies to Lerone Murphy. He's incredibly explosive and is a true finisher. The power is obvious and we saw that in his last win that came via a flying knee after being controlled on the ground for most of the first round of that fight. Murphy needs to round out his game and improve in the grappling department, but if he can do that, the sky really is the limit. Charles Jourdain is very much the same as these other guys. He's an incredible athlete who uses his power and speed to his advantage in the stand up. Jourdain pairs this with a great chin and willingness to brawl that a lot of other fighters just can't hold up against. The brawling and wild nature has sometimes led to him getting out of control and causes him to lose fights he could have potentially won. However, I would much rather have to reel a fighter in then have to tell them to pick it up. Refinement of his techniques and trying to control some of those wild tendencies could lead to Jourdain really making a push into the rankings in the latter part of this year or early 2023.
Zabit Magomedsharipov
Zabit gets his own category. This man is as talented as anyone in the entire weight class. His striking is both explosive and creative in a way that is entirely unique. He's such a unique fighter that was already at the top of the division and was pushing for a potential title shot. His cardio was his main issue, but I think he was really working on it. The problem is that whether his career will actually continue or not is completely up in the air. I really don't know what else to say about him. If he does come back, he's immediately in the top 5 and only a win or 2 away from a title shot. It just seems like no one has any idea if he'll ever fight again. What is so strange is that he's active on social media and seems to be in a gym, but never addresses the fact that we haven't seen him in forever with no indication of whether he wants to fight again or if he plans to fight again. His lack of acknowledgement of the entire situation only adds to the weirdness. At this point, I honestly forget that Zabit exists. Whatever his situation is, I hope he is both happy and healthy first and foremost. If all of those things are in order, I would love to see Zabit fight again, but if we never see him back, I just want to say thanks for all of the memories and the great fights.
What do you guys think? Who gets the win in the trilogy between Max and Volk? Does Giga get the jump on Calvin Kattar? Can the Korean Zombie or Josh Emmett jump the line and get the title shot? How far can Arnold Allen and Bryce Mitchell rise this year? Can Brian Ortega and Yair Rodriguez bounce back and get into title contention? Can Ilia Topuria or Lerone Murphy get into the rankings by the end of the year? What do you think happens to Zabit? Leave any and all thoughts below. Comment and as always, thanks for reading and have a good one.
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