We had an up and down 2021 for this series. We finished strong and we're looking to carry that momentum into the new year. Unfortunately, this card doesn't have a ton in terms of fighters we know very well. A lot of these fighters are early on in their UFC careers, so we can see a lot of variation from a fight to fight basis. That can make for a fun night of fights to watch, but it might be a rough night to make some picks, but here we are. Let's get off to a good start. Just to be clear, my picks will be in the bolded font, and the real results will be listed next to it in italics after the fight is official.
TJ Brown defeats Charles Rosa Result: Brown by decision (1-0)
Rosa took this fight on short notice and I don't think it's a matchup that suits him well. He absorbs more strikes than he lands and he defends takedowns at a 41% rate. Brown lands over 4 takedowns per 15 minutes. We've seen Rosa struggle with some aggressive wrestlers in the past and on short notice, it's hard to say how much cardio he has available to him. I think Brown wins this one and it probably comes by decision.
Brian Kelleher defeats Kevin Croom Result: Kelleher by decision (2-0)
Croom is another short notice replacement and he's had an interesting UFC run so far. His stats aren't great, but that's only with 2 UFC fights and one of them was a submission win overturned to a no contest after a positive marijuana test. He absorbs double the amount of strikes that he lands on a per minute basis and only lands takedowns at a 6% rate. Kelleher also absorbs more than he lands, but does so with a higher activity rate. He lands takedowns at a 33% rate and has pretty good cardio. Maybe this one starts competitively, but with Croom on short notice and likely not having a full 3 rounds of cardio, I think Kelleher pulls away as the fight goes on.
Court McGee defeats Ramiz Brahimaj Result: McGee by decision (3-0)
This should be a close and interesting fight. Court McGee isn't the best striker in the world, but he throws with good volume and decent power. He's averaging 4.76 strikes landed per minute and 3.78 absorbed per minute. He averages over 1 takedown per 15 minutes, but is only landing them at a 23% clip. His 69% takedown defense will likely be key as Brahimaj averages over 2 takedowns per 15 minutes and has landed 100% of his takedowns in his 2 UFC appearances. He absorbs over 5 strikes per minute, while landing just over 3 of his own, so getting this to the ground seems to be the path for him. I'll lean towards the more experienced McGee in this one.
Joseph Holmes defeats Jamie Pickett Result: Pickett by decision (3-1)
This one might be a bit of a weird fight. Both men absorb more strikes than they land on a per minute basis, so on the feet, this one will be interesting. Pickett has good power as we've seen on his Contender Series win, but he's had trouble translating that to success within the UFC so far. Holmes hasn't had much success in the striking either and is much less active in terms of volume, but he's going to rely on his grappling. He is averaging 3.86 takedowns per 15 minutes and 1.9 submission attempts per 15. Pickett has been susceptible to submissions in his past and I think that is the path to victory for Holmes. I think we see him lock in a submission and get the win.
Joanderson Brito defeats Bill Algeo Result: Algeo by decision (3-2)
This one could also get interesting. Algeo wants to keep this on the feet where he is extremely active, landing over 6 strikes per minute. He absorbs his fair share at over 4 strikes per minute, but he's content to be hit in order to land his own shots. Brito lands over 4 a minute himself, but has tighter defense and absorbs a little less than 2 a minute. The difference maker for me is Brito averaging over 4 takedowns per 15 minutes and Algeo's 50% takedown defense. Brito is going to be able to take him down and control him early, but the key will be his ability to hold up. Brito has the potential to gas late if Algeo can make him work hard early, but I think Brito will be able to do enough early on to get the win.
Dakota Bush defeats Viacheslav Borshchev Result: Borshchev (3-3)
Maybe I'm just being contrarian here, but I really don't think so. The man known as Slava Claus is very, very raw. He has pretty good power and he's a tough guy who's game to fight. He wants to get into the pocket and swing and he's pretty good at it. I haven't really seen too much in his game beyond that at this point. Bush is also young and inexperienced, but he has a more well rounded skillset at this point. I think he can use that to his advantage as long as he doesn't get into a brawl. Slava is going to bring the fight to him early with tons of volume and power shots, but if he can weather that storm, I like his chances. He has a lot of submission wins early in his career, so if he can get Slava down when he's over extending or tiring, he could even find the finish.
Katlyn Chookagian defeats Jennifer Maia Result: Chookagian by decision (4-3)
For the first time on the card, we have two fighters who we are actually familiar with. Maia is going to want to grapple here, but I don't think she'll be able to effectively enough. She doesn't hit her takedowns well enough, only 50%, to do what she needs to in order to win. Maia has had some success on the feet, but not enough to overcome the clear striking advantage for Chookagian. Not only does she have the advantage in technical striking, but she has a pretty nice 4 inch reach advantage to go with it. I expect we'll see Chookagian by decision.
Brandon Royval defeats Rogerio Bontorin Result: Royval by decision (5-3)
This should be a pretty good fight. Royval is going to bring the same high energy, frenetic pace that he always does. He has pretty solid power and dangerous submissions. Bontorin absorbs more strikes than he lands and averages 1.68 takedowns per 15 as opposed to Royval's 1.16. Royval has landed 100% of his takedown attempts though, so the grappling may be pretty even. Royval is at his best when he's mixing things up and keeping his opponents guessing and I expect that's what we'll see here. It's hard to imagine any of his fights going the distance, so I assume he'll find a finish somehow.
Jake Collier defeats Chase Sherman Result: Collier by sub (6-3)
This should take place entirely on the feet. Collier is a little less active in terms of strikes per minute at 5.52, which is still pretty active, especially for a heavyweight. He does, however, have better defense, absorbing only 4.44 per minute. Sherman on the other hand throws and lands way more strikes, 6.24 per minute, but actually absorbs more than he lands at 6.33 per minute. I think Collier's defense forces Sherman to miss more, which results in Sherman tiring first and Collier pulling away late to get the win.
Giga Chikadze defeats Calvin Kattar Result: Kattar by decision (6-4)
I did a full preview on this yesterday, so if you want something more in depth on this one, you can read that, but I'll give a short answer here. Giga is the more dynamic and creative of the two and this fight should take place entirely in the striking department. I also just like Giga's confidence right now and Kattar hasn't fought since his devastating loss this time last year. This feels like two fighters trending in opposite directions and I honestly wish Kattar would have gotten a little bit easier of a fight after such a long layoff and taking that much damage from Max Holloway. I think Giga's kicking game and better striking defense will give him the edge and allow him to get a win, probably by decision this time.
That's it from me on this one guys. Let me know what you think. Leave your picks below or let me know if you're riding with me or fading. I know it's not the best card ever, which is odd for the first one back, but I'll take some fights over nothing for another week. Glad to be back to the normal weekly formula a little bit and enjoy the fights as always. Thanks and have a good one. Oh, and if you're new to this series, I'll be back here later to update this with results and keep track of my yearly record, so check back later tonight for that.
UPDATE:
Well, not the worst way to get started, especially on this card. We got a few breaks and had a few bad breaks so, can't really even be upset. We got Court McGee as the underdog so that was a good pick there. Not picking Algeo hurt because part of me knew I should have, but I talked myself out of it. Dakota Bush clearly didn't read this and immediately decided to get into a brawl with Slava Claus, which I said wouldn't end well for him, so I was right about that at least. Royval edged out the close decision after it seemed like Bontorin may have tapped earlier in the fight, so that worked to our benefit. Calvin Kattar was absolutely outstanding and I'll do a full post on that, so I'll leave it at that for now.
Event Record: 6-4
Year to Date: 6-4
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