This time of the week again. We're slowly improving each week with picks so far in 2022 and I'm hoping to keep that going. I honestly felt really good about things last week and it still ended up being just an ok showing. I'm looking at the UFC stats page, which is here incase you were ever wondering, and I think the bout order is messed up. I'll try my best to make it accurate, but the William Knight fight was moved to the bottom, which probably has something to do with the weight class being changed. Perez vs Schnell was also cancelled after Perez missed weight, so removing that probably messed some things up on the website. Anyways, let's just start. Just to be clear, my picks will be in the bolded font, and the real results will be listed next to it in italics after the fight is official.
Blood Diamond defeats Jeremiah Wells Result: Wells by sub (0-1)
I'm taking a chance right out of the gate. Blood Diamond is only 3 fights into his career and is making his UFC debut. He's working out of the CKB gym with Izzy, Dan Hooker, and the rest of the crew, so his striking should be prepared. Wells is a good fighter in his own right coming off of a knockout win in his own debut last time. I think Blood Diamond will be ready to go and take advantage of his height and reach advantage.
Sergey Morozov defeats Douglas Silva de Andrade Result: de Andrade by sub (0-2)
This is striker vs grappler and I have to go with the grappling here. De Andrade absorbs more strikes than he lands and doesn't defend takedowns particularly well. 66% isn't horrible by any means, but Morozov is relentless and will attempt takedown after takedown until he lands them. He only gets his takedowns at a 37% rate, but he still averages 3.81 per 15 minutes. I think the wrestling will just be too much for de Andrade to overcome and Morozov grinds out a decision.
AJ Dobson defeats Jacob Malkoun Result: Malkoun by decision (0-3)
This will be Dobson's first real UFC fight and I think he gets the win. He's going to have to stay standing, but if he does, I think he gets the finish. Malkoun got 8 takedowns in his one UFC win, but in his loss, he was knocked out in 18 seconds. Dobson has heavy hands and throws a lot of strikes. I think his striking overcomes Malkoun's wrestling.
Carlos Ulberg defeats Fabio Cherant Result: Ulberg by decision (1-3)
This fight is sort of set up for Ulberg to win. He's a guy who throws a lot of strikes and has good power, especially in his hands. He did gas out, but that was after throwing a ton of strikes in that fight. Cherant has been finished in both of his UFC fights so far. He doesn't land a ton of strikes, absorbs too many, and hasn't landed a takedown. Ulberg should be able to get a win here.
Renato Moicano defeats Alexander Hernandez Result: Moicano by sub (2-3)
Pretty good matchup here. Both fighters have been a little up and down of late, but I'm going to lean Moicano. He's just a touch better in each aspect. He's more active in the striking, landing over 5 strikes a minute, where Hernandez is a little under 4. He only absorbs 3.43 strikes per minute and Hernandez absorbs 3.82. Moicano lands more takedowns per 15 minutes, gets them at a higher percentage, and defends them at a higher percentage. I think he can edge out a victory in this one.
Ronnie Lawrence defeats Mana Martinez Result: Lawrence by decision (3-3)
I really like Ronnie Lawrence in this fight. His grappling should be enough to get him a victory. He lands a ton of takedowns and gets them at a high percentage, while Martinez has never successfully defended a takedown in the UFC. Martinez is more active on the feet, but absorbs significantly more damage as well. I just think Lawrence can overwhelm him with his wrestling and control him the entire fight or look to finish him potentially.
Maxim Grishin defeats William Knight Result: Grishin by decision (4-3)
This is the first really tough one. I was leaning Knight early in the weak, but he showed up 12 lbs over weight. Either he didn't train enough to even attempt a cut or an injury didn't allow him to train as he normally would. Either way, it's hard to imagine Knight's cardio will be in a good spot. He has big power and likes to mix in the wrestling. Grishin has ok takedown defense at 66%. He's a slower paced striker and he'll have a noticeable 5 inch reach advantage. I can't trust that Knight is either prepared or healthy coming into this one, so I'll lean Grishin, but I don't feel great about it.
Casey O'Neill defeats Roxanne Modafferi Result: O'Neill by decision (5-3)
Unfortunately, I don't think Roxi will be ending her career with a win. She's pulled off these huge upsets before, so I wouldn't rule her out, but she's going to have to turn in a special performance. At this stage, O'Neill is probably better in both the striking and the grappling. She hits more takedowns at a higher rate and has better takedown defense. She also lands more strikes while absorbing less. Roxi is tough, so it probably goes the distance, but I'm going with Casey O'Neill.
Andrei Arlovski defeats Jared Vanderaa Result: Arlovski by decision (6-3)
Arlovski doesn't win pretty these days, but he finds a way to just edge out victories. Both men are strikers, but Vanderaa throws with more volume. He also absorbs more strikes. Vanderaa hasn't looked great so far in the UFC, but I think he'll have a chance. Arlovski has a way of making his opponents fight his fight and with someone as inexperienced as Vanderaa, I think he falls into that trap. I think Arlovski will be sble to just out do his opponent again in a close one.
Bobby Green defeats Nasrat Haqparast Result: Green by decision (7-3)
Statistically, this fight is pretty even. The striking is as close as it gets. Both men are active, landing over 5 strikes per minute and have pretty solid striking defense. Green does have a wrestling advantage it seems, but he doesn't look to use it too much these days. The key I think will be Green's speed advantage. He's one of the fastest guys in the division. His speed was even noticeable when he fought Fiziev, who is one of the most explosive guys in the division. I think he finds a way in this one.
Kyler Phillips defeats Marcelo Rojo Result: Phillips by sub (8-3)
This should be a fun one. Both guys are finishers and I don't see how this one goes the distance. Rojo has a tendency to get finished when he loses, so that doesn't favor him. We saw Phillips gas out in his last fight, but I think he'll learn from that. He's slightly more active on the feet and absorbs way less damage. He's not as efficient in the grappling in terms of takedown percentage and takedown defense, but he averages over 3 takedowns per 15 minutes. Rojo has 100% takedown defense, but he absorbs over 7 strikes per minute. That's just way too much for someone with the finishing ability of Phillips.
Jared Cannonier defeats Derek Brunson Result: Cannonier by TKO (9-3)
I think Cannonier can find the knockout shot with his right hand. His last fight against Gastelum really convinced me that he has the takedown defense to keep this one on the feet. If Brunson can get to his takedowns, then he will have a clear path, but I think Cannonier will be ready. Brunson's chin may just not be able to hold up against this power.
Tai Tuivasa defeats Derrick Lewis Result: Tuivasa by KO (10-3)
Picking this one is tough because it feels like its just a matter of whoever lands a big shot first, but I'm going with Tuivasa. He's on a great run and feeling good about himself. He showed improved kick boxing skills and a more patient style last time out. I think he can continue that trend and land his shots before going in for the finish. Lewis could very easily do the same, but I don't like the way he looked when he fought in Houston only a few months ago. He looked much more like himself against Daukaus, but who knows. I'm just going to enjoy this one. I'm a big fan of both, so I'll be happy with whatever happens.
Robert Whittaker defeats Israel Adesanya Result: Adesanya by decision (10-4)
I'm on a pretty good run of picking title fights. I've picked Oliveira, Figueiredo, and Ngannou all correctly as underdogs and I'm going with Whittaker here. There's something different about him this time around and I can't quite describe it. I think he's more confident in both his skills and his game plan coming into this one and I expect to see a great fight. Obviously Izzy is an amazing fighter and its going to take a next level performance to beat him, but I think Whittaker is capable of giving it to us. I think he can mix up the striking and grappling enough to edge out a decision win. I expect this fight to go the distance, so it will be up to the judges to score this one well, which is probably too much to ask.
This card is a fun one. Maybe it isn't the most star studded, but I think a lot of these fights will be competitive and fun to watch. What do you guys think? What predictions do you have? Leave you picks in the comments. Are you riding with me? Or are you fading me? Who are your locks for the night? Leave any and all thoughts below. Thanks for reading, have a good one, and enjoy the fights. I'll be back here to update this after the event, probably Sunday morning sometime.
UPDATE: I don't have too much to say honestly. This was a fun night of fights and I really enjoyed it. We had a really good night after a horrible start. Blood Diamond was really raw and it showed. Morozov vs de Andrade was a wild one. Malkoun loss was a tough one, he dominated the wrestling. Couldn't help myself but pick Whittaker, he was really good too in my opinion. There really wasn't any fights that were unwatchable to me. Grishin vs Knight wasn't amazing, but it was the first fight of the night, so everyone is excited to just start watching. Arlovski fight wasn't particularly exciting either, but I knew what to expect so it didn't really surprise me much. Ulberg vs Charant was the only one that was tough to sit through for me, but that's one out of fourteen fights. The Tuivasa win was the big one for us. It was a fun night of fights and I'll leave it at that.
Event Record: 10-4
Yearly Record: 21-13
New Yearly Record: 31-17
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