Well, I didn't do a preview for Jamahal Hill vs Johnny Walker. I honestly just didn't feel inspired to do it today. I don't hate the fight at all and actually really like Jamahal Hill a lot. It's 3:07 on Saturday morning and am just starting this so here we go. Let's just get into it. Just to be clear, my picks will be in the bolded font, and the real results will be listed next to it in italics after the fight is official.
Mario Bautista defeats Jay Perrin Result: Bautista by decision (1-0)
We get striker vs grappler off the bat and I'll go with the striker on this one. Bautista throws with good volume on the feet and pairs it with a respectable level of power. He does absorb more damage than you would like, but Perrin doesn't throw with enough volume to capitalize. Perrin does well in getting his takedowns, but I like Bautista's defense enough to keep it standing and get the win.
Jonathan Pearce defeats Christian Rodriguez Result: Pearce by decision (2-0)
This should be a pretty good matchup. Both men throw strikes with good volume, so the action should be fast paced. Pearce absorbs over 2 more strikes per minute than Rodriguez, but I think his grappling will be the difference. He's relentless in his takedown attempts and it shows, averaging over 7 takedowns per 15 minutes. I think that will be too much for Rodriguez to overcome.
Chad Anheliger defeats Jesse Strader Result: Anheliger by KO (3-0)
This fight should take place entirely on the feet. Strader threw a ton of strikes in his debut, but he also absorbed way too much damage. The two times he's fought UFC caliber opponents, he's been finished. Anheliger doesn't throw with the volume that Strader does, but he's much more in control. I'll look for him to capitalize on the openings that Strader gives once he starts to open the fight up with extended combinations.
Gloria de Paula defeats Diana Belbita Result: de Paula by decision (4-0)
This fight should be interesting and seems pretty close. Belbita throws with much more volume and also absorbs way more damage. De Paula still lands with a respectable volume, but her defense has been much better. She's only absorbing 1.52 strikes per minute. Her takedown defense hasn't been great, but I don't know if Belbita can take advantage. If it stays on the feet, I think de Paula can avoid the strikes of Belbita and land counter shots.
Chas Skelly defeats Mark Striegl Result: Skelly by TKO (5-0)
Tough one to pick. Neither guy looks great in the statistics section and Striegl only has one UFC fight that he lost in 51 seconds. I have to go with Skelly here. He's the more known commodity with a significant experience advantage at this level. His wrestling isn't terribly efficient, but he may be able to just smother Striegl from start to finish.
Jessica-Rose Clark defeats Stephanie Egger Result: Egger by sub (5-1)
Egger will have a 4 inch reach advantage, but she'll likely be the one looking to close the distance. She will need this fight to be on the ground. Her activity levels on the feet won't be enough to win this one. Clark will have the striking advantage, but she is not slouch on the ground either. She's the more well rounded fighter in my estimation and I think she should be able to win this one.
David Onama defeats Gabriel Benitez Result: Onama by KO (6-1)
Onama made his UFC debut on short notice against a legitimate prospect in Mason Jones. He was consistently hurting Jones on the feet and forced him to wrestle. I don't think Benitez has the grappling to force that style of fight today. I'll go with the volume, power, and technical ability that I saw out of Onama in that fight. Benitez will hold his own, but I like Onama a little more.
Abdul Razal Alhassan defeats Joaquin Buckley Result: Buckley by decision (6-2)
These are two powerful strikers who will be looking for the finish early and often. Buckley is probably the better athlete and has a more diverse set of strikes. Buckley was losing his last fight though up until he landed the knockout blow. If he absorbs as much damage as he did that time out, it won't be a good night for him as Alhassan has massive power. I think he can land the big shot first in this one.
Jim Miller defeats Nikolas Motta Result: Miller by TKO (7-2)
Jim Miller is still doing it and I think he picks up another win. Neither guy is especially great on the feet, but Motta absorbs more damage. Miller will also have the grappling advantage. I think his more well rounded skillset will allow him to mix things up, keep Motta off balance, and get a win.
Parker Porter defeats Alan Baudot Result: Porter by decision (8-2)
Here's another one I don't feel great about. Porter is 2-1 in the UFC despite not necessarily looking the best on the eye test. He does a good job of throwing with great volume and maintaining it throughout the fight. He's also shown an ability to take some damage. Baudot hasn't looked great in the UFC so far and has taken a ton of damage. He does throw shots back, but I just can't pick him at this point.
Kyle Daukaus defeats Jamie Pickett Result: Daukaus by sub (9-2)
I think Daukaus is the more skilled fighter of the two in both the striking and on the ground. Pickett also took this fight on short notice, so he'll have that working against him. The key will be if Daukaus can deal with the strength of Pickett. Daukaus has the BJJ skills, but I think Pickett's strength could be a problem in the wrestling. Because of the short notice aspect, I don't know if he'll have the cardio to do that for three rounds though.
Jamahal Hill defeats Johnny Walker Result: Hill by KO (10-2)
I picked against Jamahal Hill last time and I'm not doing it again. I'm a big fan of his and I went against my instincts when he fought Jimmy Crute. If Walker is back to his old self and comes out crazy, then anything can happen in this one. If we get that same cautious, overly patient version of Walker from his last fight, I think Hill can find the mark and finish him. I really like Hill's combination of power and volume to find a finish in this one at some point regardless though, its just a matter of how long it takes.
This card doesn't really carry the name value, but I'm not going to hate on it too hard. There are some interesting fights and from a match making perspective, I think a majority of them pose interesting and relatively even pairs. Even if they're not extremely high level, close and competitive fights make for a solid viewing experience in my book. What do you guys think? Who are your locks? Are you riding with me or fading? Leave your picks below with any other comments. Thanks for reading and have a good one. I'll be back after to update this with my new yearly record.
UPDATE:
How about that. This wasn't a super exciting card in terms of well known commodities and high profile matchups, but I did expect it to be a pretty solid night of competition and that is largely what we got. With this many unknowns and close matchups on paper, I couldn't have expected to do this well. Our only 2 losses came with Joaquin Buckley who won by split decision and Stephanie Egger won as the biggest underdog on the card, so I can't complain there.
We did have some things break our way. Anheliger was in a close battle until he finished the fight late in the 3rd round. He may have ended up getting the decision anyways, but that wasn't necessary. The de Paula vs Belbita fight was the closest one and the odds indicated that coming into it. I thought de Paula's defense would be important and that ultimately is what got her the win. Onama was in a little bit of trouble when he got hit in the eye, but after he recovered, he really turned it on and finished in dramatic style. Jim Miller got hit hard with that one right hand that had him a little off balance, but other than that, he was really in control of that fight. Porter vs Baudot was a pretty even fight for the most part, but Porter's cardio advantage made the difference. Daukaus and Hill were able to win in a more dominant fashion, especially Daukaus.
We had a great night of picks and I'm hoping to keep that going for as long as we can. We'll come back to Earth eventually, but let's prolong the hot streak. We'll be back next week with another middle of the road card.
Weekly Record: 10-2
Previous Yearly Record: 31-17
New Year to Date Record: 41-19
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