Alright, waiting until the last minute last week resulted in a good week of picks so maybe we can get two in a row because its 1:00 and I'm just starting so, here we go. Just to be clear, my picks will be in the bolded font, and the real results will be listed next to it in italics after the fight is official.
Victor Altamirano defeats Carlos Hernandez Result: Hernandez by decision (0-1)
The opening fight features two guys coming off of split decision wins on Dana White's Contender Series. Both men throw a lot of strikes and take some damage back. Altamirano landed more shots in that fight, but also absorbed more damage. He showed the ability to land a takedown in that fight and have solid defense. Hernandez also displayed solid defense, but didn't land any takedowns. Pair a slightly more well roundedness with a 3 inch reach advantage and I'll lean Altamirano, but it's close.
Ramiz Brahimaj defeats Micheal Gillmore Result: Brahimaj by sub (1-1)
This looks to be a bad matchup for Gillmore. Neither fighter is all that efficient on the feet and they absorb more strikes than they land. Brahimaj will likely be looking for takedowns and, over his entire career, has a knack for finding submissions. Gillmore is 6-4 in his career and of his 4 losses, all of them come on the ground and 3 by submission. That seems to be the path to beating Gillmore and Brahimaj has the skills to do it.
Jonathan Martinez defeats Alejandro Perez Result: Martinez by decision (2-1)
This one is a little more even than the odds suggest in my opinion. Statistically, there isn't much differentiation. Both men throw strikes with good volume and have decent defense. Neither looks for takedowns that often, but does a decent job at defending them. In terms of percentages, Perez is more efficient defensively, but Martinez is more efficient offensively. Combine the better striking percentage with a 3 inch reach advantage and I think I lean towards Martinez.
Terrance McKinney defeats Fares Ziam Result: McKinney by sub (3-1)
Another close fight here and I'm leaning towards McKinney. McKinney's stats are kind of messed up since his UFC debut ended so quickly, but he's more of a patient striker. He's not looking to go crazy and throw as many strikes as possible. He prefers to be a little more measured and pick his shots carefully. Ziam does a lot of the same and it results in lower striking numbers. I think McKinney may have the wrestling advantage though and I think that may be enough to edge out the win if it goes the distance. If this one ends early, both men have the power to do it. I think McKinney has good momentum and I'll give him a slight edge.
Josiane Nunes defeats Ramona Pascual Result: Nunes by decision (4-1)
Nunes is only 1 fight into her UFC career, but it was an impressive debut. She threw strikes with good volume and good power, especially for the division. She probably took more strikes than she would have liked, but I think she can reign in the defense a little. Pascual is making her UFC debut in this one. She's 6-2 in her career with only 1 of those fights going to decision, so she's going to be looking for a finish. I really liked what I saw from Nunes last time and I'll be going with her.
Ignacio Bahamondes defeats Rong Zhu Result: Bahamondes by sub (5-1)
This should be yet another pretty interesting fight. Both fighters have shown both a willingness and ability to exchange if they have to. They throw strikes with really good volume and absorb more than they probably should. Rong Zhu has shown more grappling ability to this point, but Bahamondes has 100% takedown defense. I think Bahamondes is the more advanced and diverse striker and he'll have a 4 inch reach advantage here. Rong Zhu has also missed weight for the second fight in a row, so we'll see how his cardio holds up if this fight gets into the later stages.
Gregory Rodriguez defeats Armen Petrosyan Result: Petrosyan by decision (5-2)
Petrosyan will be making his UFC debut after capturing a contract on the contender series. He will be looking to strike and it seems likely the Rodriguez will be attempting the same. Both guys have been finished before, but I wouldn't say they have weak chins by any means. Rodriguez was finished on the contender series, but has actually looked pretty good since making the main roster. Both men have a really high output, with Rodriguez being a little more active. Petrosyan didn't get hit much in his only fight that contributes to the stats, but their defensive percentages are about equal. Rodriguez has also shown more grappling ability if he needs it, so keep an eye out for that.
Arman Tsarukyan defeats Joel Alvarez Result: Tsarukyan by TKO (6-2)
Alvarez is absolutely massive for the division and is extremely explosive. He'll have a massive reach advantage and he has serious power. The two concerns I have are that he's never successfully defended a takedown in the UFC (0% takedown defense) and his cardio. Being so big means he has to cut a lot of weight and he has missed in the past. He made it this time around, but I don't know how far he can go before starting to tire. Tsarukyan can push the pace and is going to be willing to wrestle. If he can weather the early storm and close the distance, I think he can put a pace on Alvarez that he won't be able to hold. If this one ends early, that probably favors Alvarez though. I'll lean Tsarukyan to out last and get a decision win.
Ji Yeon Kim defeats Priscila Cachoeira Result: Cachoeira by decision (6-3)
This is probably my biggest lock for the card. Neither fighter has landed a takedown in their UFC career, so this going to be a striking battle. Kim is much more active in terms of throwing strikes and Cahcoeira absorbs almost 7 strikes per minute. Kim will also have a 7 inch reach advantage, so look for her to take advantage of that.
Misha Cirkunov defeats Wellington Turman Result: Turman by sub (6-4)
While it isn't by a lot, I think Cirkunov is just a little bit better all around. He's a more efficient striker even though he doesn't throw with a pace that is extremely high. Turman averages more strikes absorbed per minute than strikes he lands. I think Cirkunov will also have the grappling advantage. He hits more takedowns than Turman and at a higher percentage. Turman does have 100% takedown defense though, so he may be able to keep himself off the bottom. If Turman doesn't have top control for a majority of this fight, I don't think he has a great chance. Cirkunov has good takedown defense, so I just don't really see a clear path for him in this one. I'll go with Cirkunov.
Islam Makhachev defeats Bobby Green Result: Makhachev by TKO (7-4)
I like Bobby Green and think he does have a real chance here, but I still can't pick him. No one has been able to stay off the bottom against Islam and I just can't predict Bobby Green will be able to do it for 5 rounds on short notice. I think Green will stuff some takedown attempts and force Islam into a fight, but also it takes is one with Makhachev. I think he'll be able to at the very least control his way to a decision win.
Well, that's my speed run through these picks. Hopefully, I can maintain the pace I set last week. Let me know what you guys think. Leave your picks down below. Are you riding with me or fading? Who is your lock of the week? Leave any and all thoughts below. Thanks for reading and enjoy the fights.
UPDATE:
All in all, a pretty good day. Can't complain about 7-4, especially considering it should have been 8-3. As for our losses, Hernandez got the split decision, but I agree that he won the fight. Petrosyan and Rodriguez also put on a good fight, thought Rodriguez should have used the grappling more and he might have been able to get a win. We took a loss on Kim and that was simply the wrong decision. She won the fight, but MMA judges still struggle at times and that was a bad one. Finally, Misha Cirkunov was doing a lot of good things and all of the sudden Turman threw up and got the arm bar so fast I almost missed it. Very impressive finish from him.
Felt a lot better about our wins. Islam won easily even though I expected a little more resistance from Bobby Green. I think I said the same thing when Islam beat Dan Hooker too, but here we are. Arman Tsarukyan absolutely hammered Joel Alvarez. That one elbow changed the whole fight. I thought Bahamondes was interesting on the contender series, but he's actually better than I thought. He could be a major issue with his size. He gets hit a lot, but he has some serious potential. Josiane Nunes impressed again, would like to see her get a step up in competition next time thought. McKinney also looks like he might be for real. He's shown a well rounded skillset considering he's 2-0 in like 2 total minutes of action. Martinez did mostly what we expected. He used his kicks a little too much but he kept the fight at range and took care of business. Brahimaj used his grappling advantage and got to the submission even quicker than I expected.
Overall that was a pretty solid night of competition. Not the most epic night of fights by any means, but the main card was honestly pretty fun to watch for the most part. Strap in and get ready for Masvidal vs Covington next weekend though. The updated stats are below.
Weekly Record: 7-4
Previous Year to Date: 41-19
New Year to Date Record: 48-23
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