Well, I had a final on Monday and procrastinated my studying until Sunday night, so this is probably coming out on Tuesday instead of Monday, but it is what it is. Saturday's card overall wasn't the best card I've ever seen, but there were some good performances and solid fights. Belal Muhammad proved me wrong once again and I really couldn't be happier about it. I've always found myself rooting for Belal and the fact that he's gotten himself so close to the title is a fun story. I honestly think I just need to reevaluate my views on him, but I'll get into that more in his section. I did also watch the Bellator card, I think I'll have something about that coming out on Thursday, so if you want my thoughts on that, it is coming. Let's just start.
Belal Muhammad turned in his second performance in a row that was really impressive to me. To some degree, every winning performance in the UFC is impressive, but his last two have me asking questions about what I thought about him. Last time, I questioned where Wonderboy was at in his career, but now that Belal has done it again, I think I have to take a step back and really look at what I'm seeing. To keep it simple, I think Belal Muhammad is just better than I'm giving him credit for. I think I had just fallen into a pattern and assumed that the Belal that I had seen fight so many times before was just going to be the same guy Belal would always be and that isn't the case. For anyone new here, I am not a technique guy and I've never trained, so I don't have that level of understanding, but he is making it clear that he's just a way better wrestler than I thought he was. He was basically able to get Luque down whenever he wanted. He was definitely keying in on something and as soon as he got Luque where he wanted, he shot the takedown and was able to get it consistently. I think what stood out to me more was Belal's movement and striking. They kept talking about it during the broadcast, but that was something we really hadn't seen in Belal's game, at least not to this extent. While he was the one with his back on the fence, he was largely controlling the fight. He had Luque following him more often than not and that will be huge for Belal as he continues towards the title. Belal's striking looked much improved as well. His hands looked faster and more powerful than I ever remember them being. He also threw some really effective kicks at times. I really think that was the best version of Belal Muhammad that we have ever seen and it wasn't particularly close. Before that fight, I was a little on the fence about him as a true title challenger, but with that performance, I am much more interested in seeing what he does in his next fight. He really didn't do too much wrong. He got clipped and was a little wobbly for a moment, but he recovered nicely and showed no signs of lingering damage in the following rounds. He was fantastic and he's ready for another title eliminator or a potential number one contender fight in his next appearance.
In his next fight and probably at least a few more beyond that, regardless of result, Belal has the advantage of being a fresh face at the top of the rankings. He hasn't fought many of the guys in the tier that he's currently in, so there aren't many fights that can be obviously ruled out. The current landscape at the top of the welterweight division is unclear at best and I think that may comeback to hurt Belal, with no fault of his own. This really all comes down to Kamaru Usman and the health of his hand. Had he never needed the surgery, he probably would have fought Leon Edwards by now and we would be setting up for his next defense or the trilogy fight between those two if Leon had won. Instead, welterweight has been mostly stagnant as we wait for his recovery. I still believe that Kamaru Usman vs Leon Edwards is the fight that needs to be made and, at least for now, Dana White seems to be thinking the same. In the immediate aftermath of the Khamzat Chimaev vs Gilbert Burns fight, Dana was talking about making Khamzat vs Colby Covington, meaning that Khamzat was going to fight again before getting a title shot. If Khamzat is not getting the title shot in his next fight, then clearly Edwards is. I also laid out a scenario in my post Khamzat/Burns post where Khamzat fights Edwards for an interim title, which happens if Usman is going to be out much longer beyond July. I don't think that is particularly likely right now, but it is certainly a scenario that needs mentioning. In any case, this does seem to leave Belal with limited options. He's not fighting Usman next, so that can be ruled out for sure. I can't rule out any of the other top 5, but they all seem like they're going in other directions. I don't see Belal vs Colby as being particularly likely. Colby likes to think he is a big draw and might be looking to move up to middleweight. I don't think a win over Belal gets him much closer to a third shot at Usman, so I don't really see him taking a fight against Belal. While running back their fight that ended in a no contest would make sense, I don't really see a path to making a Belal vs Leon Edwards fight next. I don't see a scenario where Leon isn't fighting for the title in some capacity in his next fight. He's either fighting Usman or he's fighting for the interim title if Usman needs more time. One could argue that Belal is qualified to be the other half of that interim title fight, but there would be nothing more shocking than Khamzat being passed up for that opportunity. With that said, where does that actually leave Belal? Well, I think he has two options, the first of which is Khamzat Chimaev. If the UFC wanted to make things easy on themselves, this is the fight they would make. Putting together a fight between the two highest contenders who aren't already the next challenger would make sense as a pure number one contender fight. Making this fight sets the division on a very clear path for the immediate future. The winner of this fight would be the next person to challenge for the belt after the Usman vs Edwards series is completed, whether that is just one more fight or needs a trilogy. The other option is Gilbert Burns. While Gilbert is coming off of a loss, I think his stock is actually higher now than it was coming out of his win over Stephen Thompson. A win over Burns would probably put Belal in a position to just wait out a title shot of his own. I don't think there is really much of a reason for Belal to prefer one over the other as they largely provide the same opportunity for him. The problem with doing Belal vs Burns and Khamzat vs Colby is that there are a lot of different outcomes. If Belal and Khamzat both win, then Khamzat is going to get the title shot. He's the bigger star and would have the best win of the two since in this scenario he would have beaten Colby. However, if Belal and Khamzat both lose, there isn't really a clear challenger. I think this best route for the UFC would be for them to fight each other and make sure a clear challenger is lined up for the next title shot. I actually do believe that this is what ends up happening. I think that Colby goes up and fights in some sort of number one contender fight at middleweight and that leaves Belal and Khamzat to fight each other. Maybe that isn't the most exciting matchup in the world, but that would certainly be a great main event and would give Khamzat the opportunity to go 5 rounds at least once before challenging for the title should he win. A win over Khamzat would easily be the biggest of Belal's career and would have him at his peak heading into the title fight he would get after.
Unfortunately, there is always a losing side to these and that was Vicente Luque on Saturday. You can go back and see the evidence that I picked Luque, so I obviously saw something that I thought would allow him to win going into this. Luque really didn't perform up to the level I thought he would or in the way I thought he would. This is largely to Belal's credit as he was able to minimize Luque's offense, but there were some things I thought he could've done differently. Luque did a good job in forcing Belal on his back foot for most of the fight, but he really didn't do anything with it. The easiest way to prevent someone from wrestling you to death is to have them going backwards, but for some reason, Belal was able to get almost every takedown he shot for. The reason that I say that Belal was keying in on something in particular is that if he wasn't, I assume he would have gotten them earlier in the rounds. Luque really struggled to stay off of his back and that is really what cost him the fight. Belal was able to get around a minute or more of control time in four of the five rounds and the other minutes of the fight were even. Luque wasn't able to take advantage of Belal in the striking, which I didn't anticipate. He was the more explosive athlete with faster hands and more power, but he really didn't let that shine. He was light in both the overall volume and power shots. He really didn't seem like the guy that we saw against Woodley or Chiesa and I'm going to give Belal a lot of credit for that. While Saturday wasn't his finest moment, Vicente Luque is still a talented fighter and he still isn't that far removed from the title picture.
Luque still has some solid options for whenever he returns to action. The best case scenario for him would have been Gilbert Burns. They're both coming off of a loss and that is the fastest way for Luque to get back into the shorter list of the title picture, but that fight won't happen. Burns and Luque are good friends and training partners. Burns was in the corner for Luque, which they showed on the broadcast. As it currently stands, I think there are two realistic options for Vicente Luque. The first one is a rematch with Stephen Thompson. Luque fought Thompson in 2019 and lost a decision, but I think this fight makes the most sense for the both of them. They're both coming off of losses to the same opponent and are the highest ranked opponent that the other can get. Stylistically that is a fight that I would want to see as well. It gives them both a guy to stand and strike with and not have to worry about getting taken down over and over again. The other option that I see as realistic for Luque is Sean Brady. If someone isn't going to challenge for a title themselves, the UFC is going to look to build a contender off of their name and that is where Brady comes in. Brady is the highest ranked of the up and comers in the welterweight division and isn't too far away from a title shot of his own. Based on the way the schedule projects out, his title fight wouldn't come until 2023 at the earliest, but he's on a nice path. Getting a fight against Luque would go a long way towards getting that shot and would be the next logical step up for Brady. For Luque, getting a win over someone that fans, media, and to some degree, the promotion views as a future title challenger is a good way to get himself back into the mix. This loss is definitely a set back for Luque and he kind of goes to the back of the line now, but he has plenty of time and plenty of matchups that can get him right back into the mix with a win. The last thing I want to mention is a potential Jorge Masvidal fight. Purely in terms of the rankings, a Masvidal vs Luque fight would make sense, but all of the other factors lead me to believe we won't be seeing it. Masvidal is sort of on the outskirts of the exclusive club with Conor McGregor and the Diaz brothers, so he plays by his own rules to a certain degree. I could be wrong, but I don't think Vicente Luque is a name that really peaks his interest. I mentioned it awhile back in the aftermath of the Colby fight, but I think Wonderboy would interest him because of their past history and the style matchup. If it was up to me, I think Wonderboy vs Luque would be a great fight and one that I would most definitely want to see. At the same time, Sean Brady is going to need to continue moving up the rankings, so that fight is a solid number two option.
What do you guys think? What did you think of the fight? How far away is Belal Muhammad from the title shot? Who should he fight next? Where does Vicente Luque go from here? Leave your thoughts and comments below. Thanks for reading and have a good one.
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