Going to be a little later with this one, but it will be out before the card starts. We're coming off of a very mediocre week for the first time in awhile. Hopefully, we can put an end to that slide today. We have a pretty large card, so it should be a fun night of fights. What the card lacks in name value, it should bring in some relatively even fights that are fun watches even if you're unfamiliar with the athletes. I'm already up against the clock, so I'll stop rambling and get into the picks. Just to be clear, my picks will be in the bolded font, and the real results will be listed next to it in italics after the fight is official.
Alatengheili defeats Kevin Croom Result: Alatengheili by KO (1-0)
First fight and I'm already stuck on what to do. Alatengheili has 2 wins in the UFC and they've come when he's been able to get takedowns and control the fight from the top. Croom won his UFC debut by guillotine, but the result was overturned because of a failed drug test. He hasn't stopped takedowns very well in his other fights, so he could spend a lot of time on bottom in this fight. The striking isn't likely to be pretty. Croom has a huge reach advantage, but I'm not sure he can take advantage. Both fighters absorb more than they land. I expect it to only be a matter of time before Croom ends up on his back and he may stay there for long stretches. Give Alatengheili I guess.
Istela Nunes defeats Sam Hughes Result: Hughes by decision (1-1)
Neither woman has ever landed a takedown, but neither defends them very well either. I don't think either has the offensive wrestling to really take advantage of the other's defensive deficiencies. Nunes has been the much more efficient striker in her career, even if that only includes 1 UFC fight. She strikes with good volume and doesn't absorb too much damage. Hughes on the other hand has had a hard time defensively in the UFC. She's absorbing over 5.50 strikes per minute, which is just way too much. She lands her strikes at a solid clip, but I think her ability to be hit so easily does her in again here. I like Nunes to get the win.
Jordan Leavitt defeats Trey Ogden Result: Leavitt by decision (2-1)
Ogden will be making his UFC debut in this fight. He's a grappling heavy fighter who has more than his fair share of submissions on his resume. He's coming into this fight as the betting favorite, so maybe they know something I don't, but I'm going with Leavitt here. In a fight that should take place mostly in the grappling phase, I am going with the more proven grappler. We've seen Leavitt get multiple UFC wins due to his grappling, so I'll go with him until I see Ogden against actual UFC competition.
Martin Buday defeats Chris Barnett Result: Buday by decision (3-1)
Barnett is going to come into most fights with a huge size disadvantage like he does here. The reach disadvantage isn't nearly as pronounced though. Barnett has good power and is a pretty good athlete for his size, but I like Buday's skills a little more. He's much more of a traditional heavyweight and I think he is the better overall striker. He is a little more sound defensively and throws his shots more technically sound. I don't doubt that Barnett could find the win, but I think the path for Buday is much more clear.
Jesse Ronson defeats Rafa Garcia Result: Garcia by sub (3-2)
This should be your striker vs grappler type of matchup. Garcia needs to get this fight to the ground. He's averaging 4 takedowns per 15 minutes, but he's only landing takedowns at a 40% rate. On the feet, he's absorbing over 5 strikes per minute, while landing around 3.5. Ronson is the far superior striker both offensively and defensively. He doesn't strike with as much volume as you would normally like, but he absorbs very little damage. His takedown defense is just ok at 61%, but I think he will be able to do enough to get the win in this one.
Brandon Jenkins defeats Drakkar Klose Result: Klose by KO (3-3)
I have to admit, this one is kind of a gut feeling. Drakkar Klose is fighting for the first time since he was injured by Jeremy Stephens in the prefight face off after the weigh ins. Klose was talking about how he's going to need surgery after he's done fighting and how he still has side effects from it. He then originally missed weight and eventually made it after he was given an extra hour. I'm really nervous about what type of condition he is coming into this fight with. This fight is going to take place on the feet and under normal circumstances, I would say Klose has the advantage on the feet. However, I just can't pick Klose until I see how he performs given what he said about his injuries and then almost missing weight. Jenkins is a dangerous striker in his own right, even though he didn't look great in his UFC debut.
Pannie Kianzad defeats Lina Lansberg Result: Kianzad by decision (4-3)
This fight is setting up to be Kianzad's to lose. I think she is both the better offensive and defensive striker in this fight. Both women land less than 1 takedown per 15 minutes and Kianzad has 77% takedown defense to go with it. Lansberg absorbs more strikes than she lands, while Kianzad has a positive differential and lands over 5 strikes per minute. I feel good about Kianzad here.
William Knight defeats Devin Clark Result: Clark by KO (4-4)
This is such a weird fight. Both are moving up to heavyweight and I'm not sure if that is a permanent thing or if it was just because the fight was put together on shorter notice. Knight is going to have a significant weight and strength advantage. I think this fight will be primarily and clinch and grappling battle and that size will help Knight a great deal. This is such a close fight that I think the power that Knight throws his strikes with may be enough to sway things his way in the eyes of the judges. The striking out put and defense is so close as are the takedown stats. It could really go either way, but I'll go with Knight.
Mounir Lazzez defeats Ange Loosa Result: Lazzez by decision (5-4)
You may not recognize either of these names, but it should be a solid fight while it lasts. Both are pretty talented fighters who are willing to mix it up. Both have limited UFC experience, but they've proven that they are both willing and able to throw and absorb strikes at a high rate. They're both solid grapplers as well. I do think Lazzez is just a tad better in the striking and the grappling and I expect that he will be able to find a way to win.
Pat Sabatini defeats TJ Laramie Result: Sabatini by decision (6-4)
This should be a grappling heavy fight. Neither fighter spends much time on the feet and they don't look particularly comfortable there either. We've seen Sabatini get some legitimate UFC wins and really grind out some decision wins. His top control game is as smothering as there is right now. Laramie showed some skill on the contender series, but it didn't really translate in his debut. I have to go with the more proven Sabatini in this one.
Wu Yanan defeats Mayra Bueno Silva Result: Bueno Silva by decision (6-5)
This should be a fun fight while it lasts. First, both women have solid submission skills, but they don't really show the wrestling to actually get the fight down. They both also absorb more strikes than they land. Yanan lands a little more of her own shots, while absorbing slightly less than Bueno Silva, so I'll lean her way on this one.
Miguel Baeza defeats Andre Fialho Result: Fialho by KO (6-6)
Another fight that should be almost entirely on the feet. Fialho put on a decent showing considering his UFC debut came against Michel Peirera, but I'm not sure it will be enough here. He threw strikes with ok volume, but absorbed way too many. Baeza is going to land his shots with good volume too, but will be willing to absorb damage to do so. I'm not sure if Fialho can match his volume. I would say that Baeza probably has the power advantage as well.
Caio Borralho defeats Gadzhi Omargadzhiev Result: Borralho by decision (7-6)
Both fighters have limited UFC experience, but this should be an interesting matchup. Omargadzhiev is going to look to wrestle as much as possible and is going to look for the submissions once he's down. Borralho is a solid grappler himself and has 100% takedown defense. Borralho is the superior striker and I think his well rounded game will allow him to pick up the win in this one. I thought this was a weird one to have as the co-main, but I'm actually looking forward to it quite a bit.
Vicente Luque defeats Belal Muhammad Result: Muhammad by decision (7-7)
I did the full preview on this yesterday, so I'll keep this short. Luque is clearly the superior athlete explosively and I think he will be able to find a late finish. He has more dynamic striking and will have the submissions if the fight reaches the ground. I think Belal's path to victory is much the same as the one he used against Wonderboy. I just can't imagine him grinding out Luque for a full 5 rounds.
That's it from me. I'll save the nonsense at the end this time because I want to get this out as soon as possible. Enjoy the card. Leave your picks below. I'll be here after the card to update the results and tabulate my updated record. Thanks for reading and have a good one.
Weekly Record: 7-7
Previous Year to Date Record: 91-43
Updated Year to Date Record: 98-50
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