It is fight day again and I'm actually looking forward to this card quite a bit. Even though we're only getting 11 fights this week, the card is one of the deeper Fight Nights that we've gotten all year. The name value is solid and even the fights with lesser known fighters are pretty interesting matchups for one reason or another. I'm not sure why this card is starting late like a PPV type time slot, but I guess we'll have to live with it. Just to be clear, my picks will be in the bolded font, and the real results will be listed next to it in italics after the fight is official. Let's get into this week's picks. I need to get back on track after too many weeks in a row of mediocrity after a pretty nice hot streak.
Nick Maximov defeats Andre Petroski Result: Petroski by sub (0-1)
I thought it was funny that FanDuel has him listed as "Andrew Petroski", but that is neither here nor there. This is probably going to end up being a tale of two fights. The early going is going to be pretty interesting. Both are primarily grapplers, but I think Petroski has the striking edge. He's also the bigger, stronger man with more power in his punches and I would give him the slight edge in submission ability. The problem is Petroski gasses out pretty quickly. Maximov isn't nearly as strong or natural on the feet, but he's going to push a really high grappling pace and I think he is the better pure wrestler. If Maximov can push an early pace and survive the first round, I think he will put it on Petroski in the second half of the fight. I think Maximov is good enough in the submission department to survive any of those early attempts as well.
Carlos Candelario defeats Tatsuro Taira Result: Taira by decision (0-2)
We were supposed to get this fight a couple of weeks ago, so I already explained my pick, but we'll go over it again. Taira is making his debut and I'm just not really sure how his skills stack up against this level of competition. He seems to be a bit reliant on submissions and specifically getting to his opponents back. Candelario isn't a world beater by any means, but he's shown himself to be a pretty solid wrestler and at least a competent striker against a level of competition that I feel much better about. Taira could certainly end up getting a sub here, but I'm much more comfortable going with the more known commodity in Candelario.
Angela Hill defeats Virna Jandiroba Result: Jandiroba by decision (0-3)
Not that this fight is like championship level, but I'm surprised this is the third fight of the night. This fight is actually a pretty interesting one in my estimation as well. Hill is going to bring a kick boxing heavy style, but also has good strikes from the clinch. She is really the stereotypical volume striker in women's strawweight, but I think her power is probably a little better than she gets credit for. Virna on the other hand is going to need to grapple a lot in this fight. Her striking has lacked even against opponents who are also known to not have great striking ability. She hits her takedowns at a 39% rate, which isn't amazing, but she gets over 2 takedowns per 15 minutes, meaning that she's persistent. Once on the ground, she has a dangerous submission game, which Hill has been prone to at times in the past. Defensively, Hill does have pretty good takedown defense, but I think Virna may only need one to end up finishing the fight. On the other side, Virna's striking defense hasn't been fantastic and her chin has shown the ability to be cracked. I'll lean towards Hill keeping the fight standing and doing massive damage on the feet.
Michael Johnson defeats Alan Patrick Result: Johnson by KO (1-3)
This feels like one of those fights that no matter which way I go, it will be the other side that gets the win. To put it simply, I think Johnson is just the more talented fighter. He's had his problems in the past with losing fights he should probably win, but I just have to trust him here. His striking, specifically his boxing, is the best skill either fighter has in this one. I expect Johnson will use his jab and keep the fight at the range he wants. Patrick is much more of a grappler and he strikes at an extremely slow pace. Patrick will be willing to come forward and push somewhat of a pace, but I don't think his cardio is in a place that will allow him to just pressure Johnson relentlessly. Johnson has pretty good takedown defense as well and Patrick is just sort of an ok wrestler, not a fantastic one. Johnson should win, but we've said that so many times in the past when he ended up losing.
Andrea Lee defeats Viviane Araujo Results: Araujo by decision (1-4)
This one hurts as someone who considers themselves a Vivi fan, but I think this is an especially bad matchup for her. Araujo will start fast as she's a powerful and explosive athlete for the division. She has pretty good striking as well and will throw with pretty good volume, at least early on. She brings a very solid grappling base too and hits her takedowns at a 60% rate with a 2.10 average per 15 minutes. Her weakness is that she's tended to slow down later in fights, at least at times, and loses the back half of the fight. Lee is reliable to push a pace and strike with really good volume. Lee has solid grappling, but I think Vivi has the slight edge in that department. Lee's advantage will be her striking defense as Vivi is way more hittable and will absorb more shots. Lee will also work the body, which won't help Vivi's gas tank. I think Lee's volume striking and cardio will give her the edge in this one.
Jake Hadley defeats Allan Nascimento Result: Nascimento by decision (1-5)
This is the weirdest fight on the card for me. Hadley is making his debut and I expect him to come out and wrestle pretty heavily. I think he'll have the advantage there and should be able to control this fight from the top. If it stays on the feet, I think the fight is pretty even. Nascimento may have a slight volume advantage, but I don't think it will be a huge factor. Nascimento has pretty solid submissions as well, so I do think he's being overlooked slightly, but I do lean Hadley slightly. I think the most likely outcome is Hadley riding out a decision from top position.
Frank Camacho defeats Manuel Torres Result: Torres by KO (1-6)
This is a bit of a weird one as well. Torres is making his debut and he just has way too many questions for me to pick him. Camacho certainly isn't great, but I think he has a pretty reliable base. He's not great at anything, but he is respectable everywhere. He will strike with pretty good volume as well. He has had problems with his chin lately as well, which isn't encouraging, but I think he can get it done. Torres is a tough fighter to judge as his level of competition is very limited and he was able to walk through those opponents so quickly that his gas tank is impossible to judge. If this fight makes it out of the first round, I have no idea how he'll look. I have to go with the more proven Camacho here.
Katlyn Chookagian defeats Amanda Ribas Result: Chookagian by decision (2-6)
I'm kind of hoping that Ribas took this fight up a weight class because Waterson pulled out and not because she's actually going up to 125. Ribas is normal sized, if not on the smaller end for 115 and is now fighting one of the larger women in the flyweight division in a matchup that doesn't favor her at all. Chookagian isn't flashy or the most exciting to watch, but she's not a fun fight by any means. Her volume striking with her length is a real issue for most women. She keeps her opponents on the ends of her punches and kicks so well and can land her strikes from a range where she can't be touched. Her movement is also some of the best and she won't get tired. Ribas is sufficient in the striking, but not up to the level of Chookagian. She'll need to grapple in this fight and going up in weight will likely put her at a size disadvantage, even though Chookagian isn't the most muscular fighter in the division. I think this is a bad matchup for Ribas and the size discrepancy will only make that worse.
Davey Grant defeats Louis Smolka Result: Grant by KO (3-6)
This fight seems destined to end inside the distance. I'll boil this one down to a striker vs grappler type of matchup, even though they're both fairly well rounded. Grant would be the striker in this case, even though he is from a wrestling background. I think his path to victory is on the feet with his solid power and volume. Smolka's chin has had a rough go of it lately and I'm not sure that Grant is the guy to help things on that front. Grant has solid wrestling as well and can mix in takedowns if he needs to. His chin has also held up better more recently, so maybe he figured something out with the weight cuts or something. Smolka is certainly live in this fight and his path to victory comes on the ground. He isn't a great wrestler and I would give Grant the edge there, but once the fight is down, Smolka certainly has the submission edge. Grant has been susceptible to submissions throughout his career and Smolka has more than enough ability to find one. I just think his chin may be his downfall here and I'm not sure if he will be able to take Grant to the ground.
Ryan Spann defeats Ion Cutelaba Result: Spann by sub (4-6)
This is another one of those fights where no matter which side I'm on, the other side will get it done. Spann is the much larger man and better athlete, but his MMA skills are a bit hit and miss. He's strong and has really good power in his strikes, but his striking defense is just mediocre and his chin hasn't always held up. His wrestling is again just sort of ok with a 60% takedown defense and he averages 1.58 takedowns of his own per 15 minutes and lands those at a 38% clip. His cardio is also not in the best situation. For someone who is thought of as primarily a striker, he actually has decent submission ability, but he hasn't really felt dangerous in that department in awhile. Cutelaba is just as unpredictable in my estimation. He's a pretty solid fighter in the first round, but has gassed out completely multiple times and is left to just hang on. He's a decent enough striker and has pretty good power to go with it. His wrestling is actually pretty good as well and I think he will be better than Spann there. He has a tendency to just go crazy and completely gas himself out. His chin also has been found on occasion. This feels like a bit of a coin flip to me and honestly, whoever lands the first clean shot may be the one to get the win. I think Spann is a little more powerful, so I'll go with him I guess. The grappling upside probably means I should take Cutelaba, but I'm not sure I trust him to actually fight to the best gameplan, much like I said about Randy Brown last week.
Jan Blachowicz defeats Aleksandar Rakic Result: Blachowicz by TKO (5-6)
I'm going a bit on a gut feeling here, but I just think Jan finds a way. This doesn't project to be a particularly crazy or exciting fight, so I'm going to give the slight edge to the guy who can do more damage with a single strike. Jan and Rakic are prone to getting into these slow paced kick boxing fights, so I think my logic is to lean towards the guy with more power. I did a full preview for this and I think I give Jan the edge in the grappling as well, so maybe he can use that to edge out a round or two. This should be a pretty close fight though so maybe that Legendary Polish Power will make the difference on the scorecards.
What do you guys think? Who do you like in these fights? Leave all of your picks or maybe your best two or three bets below. Leave any and all thoughts as well. I'll be back after the card to update this and calculate my new year to date record. Thanks for reading, have a good day, and enjoy the card.
UPDATE:
Weekly Record: 5-6
Previous Yearly Record: 119 - 65
Updated Year to Date Record: 124 - 71
What a dreadful stretch to start this card. A hot streak to finish saved it a little, but lets hope this is rock bottom and we can get back on track. I thought this card was a bit uneventful at times, especially on the prelims, but it was still fun, especially as the main card picked up. Let's just go over the wins and losses. I had questions about Taira mainly due to his level of competition and his grappling seemed to be legitimate. I thought Candelario would be able to have more wrestling success, but Taira pretty much shut that down.
We'll start with the losses per usual. Andre Petroski was able to get the early finish, which was my fear in picking against him. I feel like I had that fight pretty well understood, but I thought Maximov would be able to avoid diving into a submission early and then just out pace Petroski late, but Petroski found the choke and latched it in. That's a big win for him. Angela Hill really didn't look that good in a fight that I thought she had a real chance to win. She struggled to keep the fight standing and to get up after it went to the ground. She really didn't even take advantage of the standup while the fight was at range. I'm pretty surprised she wasn't able to put it on Virna because their striking shouldn't even be close. Viviane Araujo looked good and as a fan of hers, I'm glad to have been wrong on that one. Her wrestling looked to be improved and her cardio held up pretty nicely. Lee isn't known for her grappling, but I had thought her cardio advantage would have been able to play a bigger role. The Hadley vs Nascimento fight was a bit surprising. Hadley really had no answers for Nascimento in the striking or on the ground. He was beat to basically every position. I guess I should have put more stock into the fact that Nascimento had Charles Oliveira on his side, but it is what it is. I thought Hadley had the wrestling advantage, but that was clearly not the case. Torres was able to dispatch of Frank Camacho rather quickly, which was my concern. He's almost always been a fast finisher, but I thought Camacho would be able to survive the first and then see what kind of cardio Torres had, but that wasn't the case.
As for the wins, Michael Johnson was the first. I can't help but feel good for Johnson as that was a win that he desperately needed. It was good to see him put on a good performance from start to finish and end up getting the knockout. Katlyn Chookagian was my next win and she got pushed. She probably should have lost that fight to be honest, which is a bit concerning. She's a tough matchup though and she's probably a favorite against almost everyone in the division who isn't Valentina Shevchenko. How Davey Grant vs Louis Smolka doesn't win fight of the night, I'll never know, but it was a good one. Grant started fast, but Smolka came back and showed a lot of heart in round two. The leg kicks started to add up and eventually caused the sequence that led to him getting knocked out in the third, but that is another good win for Davey Grant. Ryan Spann picked up a much needed win. He looked crisp and powerful in the striking and while he was taken down multiple times, he showed good urgency in getting back to his feet. He locked in the submission and it must have been tight because Cutelaba was tapping pretty quickly. Jan Blachowicz picked up a massive win in the main event and he looked like the best version of himself that beat Dominick Reyes and Israel Adesanya. He was actually being Rakic on the feet and looked good doing so. If that is going to be the version of Jan that we're going to get, then I'm all for him getting the next title shot.
I'm going to do the fallout reaction to the main event Monday and then have the round up about the whole card the following day so read those if you want a little more detail about the fight or want some suggestions as to who they should fight next. Thanks for reading and have a good one.
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