After about a month or so of some pretty mediocre weeks, we're looking to turn it around. The problem is this card is just weird enough that I think it might be a tough one to get things turned around with. We're going to try our best though and try to really lock in on some of these fights. I feel like my process has been good and I've gotten the wrong side of variance a lot recently, but I've also had some really not great looking picks. This card has the potential to either be really chalky or get weird and I feel like no matter which way I go, it will be the opposite. Just to be clear, my picks will be in the bolded font, and the real results will be listed next to it in italics after the fight is official. Let's get back on track.
Sam Hughes defeats Elise Reed Result: Hughes by KO (1-0)
This is the first fight of the night and it is already one that will go against me no matter which way I go. I think Hughes is the more well rounded fighter here and I'll give her the slight lean. Just last fight, I thought Reed would be basically equal in the striking with Cory McKenna and while she won that fight in the standup, I still don't know exactly how good she is. She has pretty decent power and throws with sufficient volume, but I don't think she's an especially high level striker. Hughes probably isn't quite as fast or powerful on the feet, but I think she'll come forward and at least put some volume out there. She is also the much better grappler. She isn't a phenomenal wrestler, but if she can get Reed down, I think she'll be able to keep her down for the rest of the round. I think Hughes is probably the more skilled fighter from an all around perspective, but her athletic limitations make this one closer than it could've otherwise been. I don't think Reed's slightly better striking defense and slightly better power are going to be enough here.
Chase Hooper defeats Felipe Colares Result: Hooper by KO (2-0)
I can't say I feel great about this one either. Believe it or not, Chase Hooper actually lands strikes at a significantly higher rate and also absorbs strikes at a lesser rate. Hooper is certainly not a great striker, but he's still very young and I'm expecting we see him to show continued improvement in that area. Colares may be a slightly better wrestler, but Hooper is going to work for submissions off of his back if he does get taken down. I can't possibly feel good about picking Hooper at this stage, but Colares throws and lands so few strikes that I can't imagine him getting the win with that little volume. Even if he gets top position, I think Hooper can win rounds from the bottom or finish the fight with his submission attempts.
Jonathan Martinez defeats Vince Morales Result: Martinez by decision (3-0)
This is the first one that I feel a bit better about, but I'm still not calling this a lock. If Morales can get in Martinez's face and make this a dirtier fight, then he has a chance. If this fight can take place in the pocket, Morales can find the win. However, if the fight is at distance, Martinez will have the distinct advantage. Martinez throws good kicks and a lot of them. Morales has been very susceptible to low kicks in the past and never really addressed them. He was finished by leg kicks by Chris Gutierrez not too long ago. I have a feeling those range kicks will get Martinez the win in this one unless Morales has really drilled the ability to check kicks.
Uros Medic defeats Omar Morales Result: Medic by KO (4-0)
It is at this point where I realized that it is impossible to pick this card with any hope of getting a great record. This one is probably not going the distance as Medic is a kill or be killed type of fighter. I don't expect this fight to go to the ground, but if it did I suppose Morales would have the advantage there. Medic is going to come out and throw heavy strikes with huge volume. I don't see how this fight goes more than about 7 minutes one way or another. I think Medic will be able to find the finish, but if he doesn't, he's probably getting finished himself after he gasses out.
Parker Porter defeats Jailton Almeida Result: Almeida by sub (4-1)
This is a weird fight with Almeida going up to heavyweight after Porter offered to take the fight on short notice. Almeida is going to be a significant size disadvantage. He used to fight at middleweight and Porter is every bit of the 265 lbs limit. He will probably walk into the cage closer to 270+. It is possible that Almeida still just takes Porter down and submits him pretty quickly, but I think getting the takedown is going to be pretty tough for him. Almeida has solid power for his size, but Porter has likely felt way more at heavyweight. Meanwhile, Porter is going to throw way more strikes and probably has some of the best power Almeida has ever felt and Porter doesn't even have great power for the division. I kind of think this is Porter's fight with his significant weight advantage. Almeida doesn't throw with nearly enough volume to win a decision here. I think he is limited to a submission, which he could certainly get, but the significant weight advantage will make getting those takedowns tough.
Joseph Holmes defeats Alen Amedovski Result: Holmes by sub (5-1)
Another tough one. Amedovski has had a really tough go of it in the UFC. He was controlled on the ground badly in his first fight and then was knocked out in 14 seconds in his second fight. He hasn't fought in a few years since, so it is unclear what improvements he's made in that time. Holmes burned me the last time I picked him and I don't have great confidence in him here. His striking isn't great and his gas tank isn't great either. His grappling has shown to be decent at times though and he's the much bigger and stronger athlete here, so I guess I'll go with him. He's also just been competing regularly, so he has that going for him.
Jun Yong Park defeats Eryk Anders Result: Park by decision (6-1)
This is the first fight that could go either way in a way that is actually interesting. Most of these fights could go either way because both fighters are unpredictable. This fight has two fighters who are actually good, so we have that. Anders has the grappling advantage here and if he used it, I think he could win the whole fight. However, I'm not sure if he will actually use his wrestling and if his cardio can hold up. If this fight takes place on the feet, I think the power will be relatively even, but Park will have a significant volume advantage. I think Park keeps the fight standing and puts it on Anders late.
Tabatha Ricci defeats Polyana Viana Result: Ricci by decision (7-1)
On the feet, I think this fight will be relatively even. Viana does have the better striking defense though and absorbs way less damage. Ricci brings the wrestling advantage though and will work for takedowns for the entire fight. Viana is a fairly decent grappler, but she is very content to fight off of her back. I think Ricci is a good enough grappler to not be submitted and will be able control the fight from the top and pick up the win.
Chidi Njokuani defeats Dusko Todorovic Result: Njokuani by KO (8-1)
This fight is going to take place almost exclusively on the feet. I have to go with Njokuani as I trust his defense much more. Todorovic has been reckless so far in his UFC career and if he does that again here, I think Chidi is more than good enough to land the counters necessary to get the win. The path for Dusko is to get the fight in the clinch and take away Njokuani's space, but he's seemed hesitant to do so in the UFC. Dusko just gets hit way too much and doesn't seem interested in fighting a more patient and careful style. If he opens up like crazy, I don't expect it will end well for him as he hasn't taken shots particularly well recently either.
Santiago Ponzinibbio defeats Michel Pereira Result: Pereira by decision (8-2)
This is a tough one. The prime version of Ponzinibbio should win this fight pretty easily, but after all of his health issues, he hasn't quite looked the same. However, I think he can still get this one. He should still throw leg kicks and his cardio has seemed pretty solid. Pereira will probably have the advantage early while he's fresh, but he's going to gas at some point. He has the grappling advantage, but I'm not sure if he's going to use it. Pereira is so unpredictable that he could really do almost anything. I just have to trust that Ponzinibbio is going to win the late exchanges after Pereira tires out.
Holly Holm defeats Ketlen Vieira Result: Vieira by decision (8-3)
I think this is similar to the last fight. The prime version of Holm probably wins this fight easily, but is the 2022 version still mostly that fighter is the real question. I think Holm is still good enough to keep this fight standing and then controlling the fight at range. Her striking has historically been in a different tier than Vieira's and her defensive grappling has stopped better wrestlers as well. Unless her age and all of the injuries and weight cuts have just caught up with her, I think this is Holm's fight to lose.
What do you guys think? What are your predictions? Who is your lock of the night? Leave any and all of your thoughts on the card below. I'll be back after to update this and have my fresh year to date record after the event. Thanks for reading, have a good one, and enjoy the fights.
UPDATE:
Weekly Record: 8-3
Previous Year to Date Record: 124 - 71
Updated Year to Date Record: 132-74
I can't believe this was the card that got us back on track. We were a few breaks away from having a really nice night as well. For as weird as this card seemed on paper, it actually wasn't all that bad. It ended up being a pretty run of the mill fight night, but a little on the lesser side, but it was more entertaining than what many projected before hand. As usual, we'll briefly run through our wins and losses.
I guess we'll start with the losses since there's only a few of them. Our first loss was Parker Porter and I kind of felt decent about that pick. I really thought the 50+ pound difference would help Porter keep himself standing, but that clearly wasn't the case. He was basically taken down instantly and was held down the entire round until Almeida got the submission late. I still have some questions about his game over a full 15 minutes, but we'll have to wait at least one more fight before we get to see how that looks. I don't think Porter is great, but he doesn't lose any stock in my opinion. His skill set is a tough problem for a lot of heavyweights to solve because they just don't have the cardio to deal with him. The next loss was Santiago Ponzinibbio and even though he lost, this is as good as I've felt about him since he had all of those health scares. He's taken a few fights since those problems and he's looked better with each performance. I think there was an argument to be made that he won this past Saturday. That fight was so close that I think it really could've gone either way though, so no complains from me. I hope Ponzinibbio continues to get ranked or close to ranked opponents because I think he is still mostly that type of fighter, even if he's never back to 100% of the guy he was in the past. Pereira on the other hand looked really good. He's finally been able to reel in his wildness just enough to really string some wins together. I don't know that he's a true championship level fighter because his performances have historically been a little inconsistent, but athletically, he's a real problem for a lot of guys in the welterweight division. Our final loss was Holly Holm and I think that was a pretty questionable decision. I know the stats aren't available to the judges and even if they were, they don't necessarily matter, but it was clear Holm dominated the stat sheet. She had more total strikes by a wide margin and had a massive advantage in control time. This wasn't the case of the Font vs Vera fight either where Font had the striking numbers and Chito was just doing way more damage. Vieira was landing the heavier shots, but it wasn't incredibly damaging or anything. A loss is a loss all the same, but that one was one of the more questionable decisions I think in a little bit.
As for the wins, we took a lot of chances this week and a lot of them paid off. Our first win was Sam Hughes and of the chances, I think that was the one I was most comfortable with. Reed wasn't a particularly high level opponent, but she had a pretty noticeable power and athleticism advantage that did worry me a bit. While Hughes is limited in raw athleticism, I thought she had the advantage in heart and grit as well as actual MMA skills and that seemed to largely be the case. I'm not sure exactly what her future is, but that was a really nice night out for her. A lot of that could also be said about Chase Hooper, who was our next win, but he has age on his side. Hooper isn't an especially great athlete either, but his grappling has always been for real. His wrestling has historically only been ok and his striking has been a glaring weakness in the past. I thought both of those skill sets looked improved and his striking actually looked dangerous at times. He was hurting Colares on the feet, which isn't something I thought I would ever say about Hooper. He still has a lot of development to do, but he is still so young. The growth that he showed this past fight actually has his arrow pointing up for me for the first time in a few fights. Jonathan Martinez was the first favorite I took and, while I'm not sure how highly I rate him overall in the bantamweight division, that was a really solid performance in a matchup that favored him. Morales doesn't defend leg kicks no matter how badly his legs are beaten up and Martinez throws a ton of kicks. He did was he had to do and his hands didn't look all that bad either. Uros Medic looked to be improved as well. He was able to fight somewhat calmly and not just completely empty the tank in the first round. He stayed more patient and then capitalized on the openings when he was given them. He is clearly powerful and after he had Morales hurt, he didn't let him off the hook. That was a really nice win for him. Joseph Holmes was a favorite that I was a bit nervous about. There was a path for Amedovski to get the win, but Holmes landed that huge knee that was the beginning of the end before he locked in the choke. Jun Yong Park was on the positive side of a questionable decision, so at least one of those worked out for us. Park did a good job of keep the fight standing, even though Anders was clinching him a lot. He was able to really put his striking together in the third round to win that one and apparently edged out the second. I'm not sure that I would have given him the decision, but it was pretty close. That is a fight where open scoring would help a lot more and is less to blame on the judges. The Ricci vs Viana fight wasn't a particularly great one, but I think my read on it was actually pretty much right on. Viana probably had the tools to win the fight if she used them to the best of her ability, but she was too content to fight off of her back, which is what ultimately cost her. If she kept the fight standing, she probably would have won, but she is so comfortable on the ground that she had no urgency to get up. Ricci was able to get the win mostly off of her ability to control the position from the top and avoid Viana's submissions. Chidi Njokuani was our final win and man, that was something. I think I'm more interested in him than most, but his skills are very interesting to me. That was a nasty elbow that folded Dusko in a bad way. I thought Dusko was fighting more of the fight that he needed to, but he got blasted on the break and that would have dropped most in the division. I don't blame him on that one, but I'm not sure how much longer of a leash he has in the UFC.
That's it from me on this one. The fallout post for the main event will go up Monday and the roundup will be out Tuesday. I think something on open scoring is going up Wednesday though. Anyways, let me know what you guys though about the card. Leave all of your thoughts in the comments. What bad beats or great wins did you have? Thanks for reading and have a good one.
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