Well, you guys probably know by now that I'm on vacation and I didn't get to the preview for the main event, but for the sake of keeping an accurate record, I have to keep these picks for every fight. You know the deal by now. I pick every fight and give a brief explanation as to why I feel the way I do. I'm pretty excited for this card. It isn't the most exciting card in terms of name value by and large, but the last three fights should be really fun, so I'm looking forward to it. Just to be clear, my picks will be in the bolded font, and the real results will be listed next to it in italics after the fight is official.
Ramona Pascual defeats Joselyne Edwards Result: Edwards by decision (0-1)
We're starting off with a bit of a weird one. This should largely be the standard striker vs grappler matchup. Edwards will have noticeably better striking both offensively and defensively when the fight is at range on the feet. She is the superior boxer with her combinations and can largely avoid taking damage as well. Pascual is a willing striker and throws with ok volume, but she struggles to avoid being hit. She absorbs way too many strikes. On the other hand, Pascual did show an ability to get takedowns in her UFC debut, but struggled to keep the fight down. Edwards struggles in the grappling and to add to it, she is coming up a weight class. If nothing else, Pascual is a legitimate featherweight, so the grappling and size advantage goes to her. Edwards does not fight well off of her back, so one takedown may be the end of the round for her striking. I think this should be a pretty even fight that could go either way. I think Pascual will be able to hang around in the striking better than Edwards can on the ground, so I'll lean her way.
Silvana Gomez Juarez defeats Liang Na Result: Gomez Juarez by KO (1-1)
This is another one of those fights. Liang Na is one of those fighters who has a very particular way in which they have to win and if the fight goes any other way, they're probably going to lose. She is going to come out and try to grapple very aggressively and pursue submissions early and often. This often results in her almost completely gassing out after the first 5 minutes. Normally I would say backing off the pace would help, but in her case, I don't really think it would. Her best chance to win fights is to create chaos in the grappling and find a submission, so she goes all out for it. Unfortunately for her, when she gets gassed, she really doesn't have a second wind. She is going to completely empty the tank and if this fight goes into the second, she will probably get finished. Gomez Juarez on the other hand will have a striking advantage. She doesn't throw a ton of volume, but she can box and has pretty solid power. The problem is that she can be very susceptible to submissions herself. The only way Liang Na can win lines up perfectly with the way Gomez Juarez loses, so that is the game we're playing. Ultimately, I think Gomez Juarez is just the better fighter and I can't trust someone who I know is going to gas completely after 5 minutes and have literally nothing left to defend herself beyond that point.
Danaa Batgerel defeats Kyung Ho Kang Result: Kang by decision (1-2)
This is a fight I'm looking forward to. This is another striker vs grappler matchup, but I think a more interesting one than the opening fight of the night. I've seen people be pretty split on this, but I like the Batgerel side. I like him to get off his strikes in bunches with good power and more than I like Kang to get the fight down. Batgerel certainly isn't a grappler, but I don't think he's an awful one either. Kang is very reliant on his ability to get takedowns and then fish for submission attempts, but I don't think it will be enough this time. Batgerel is going to hit him early and often with power that I'm not sure that Kang will be able to stand up to. I think Kang is a better overall grappler than he is a pure wrestler, which leads me to leaning Batgerel ever so slightly.
Brendan Allen defeats Jacob Malkoun Result: Allen by decision (2-2)
I used to think Allen was going to be a really good fighter and while his more recent performances have my expectations for him a little cooled, I think that he is plenty good enough to win this fight. Allen will be looking to keep this fight standing and at range where he will have a striking advantage. Allen isn't a fantastic striker, but he is decent. He throws both punches and kicks with solid volume and power. His body kicks have become one of his best weapons. Malkoun will be looking to wrestle and while he has had success with it over his last couple of fights, I don't think it will be enough this time. Malkoun has shown himself to be a willing wrestler with good cardio who is willing and able to push a pace and attempt takedown after takedown, but I'm not sure what he does beyond that. He is a tad limited athletically, which is something that makes me hesitant when picking fights in general. He isn't overly powerful, strong, or explosive, which means he needs everything to be going his way. I don't think Allen is a great grappler, but he is at least competent. I think he will be good enough to keep the fight standing where he is both the superior striker technically, while also being the bigger, stronger, faster, and more powerful athlete.
Steve Garcia defeats Maheshate Result: Maheshate by KO (2-3)
This is going to be an interesting one. Maheshate is coming off of a nice win on the Contender Series, but I have my questions about him. We saw that he is very tough and has decent power in his strikes. However, he hasn't shown to have grappling that is even average. I think he gets taken down way too easily to have any level of sustained UFC success unless he makes major strides in that area. Garcia on the other hand isn't necessarily and amazing fighter, but he is solid. He throws strikes with good volume and he does a decent job of limiting damage on the feet. Garcia's path to victory will be in the wrestling, where he has shown himself to be respectable. He isn't necessarily the most dominant wrestler I've ever seen, but he is a willing one. He is a safe bet to attempt takedowns across all three rounds and I think he can have success there. The worry is that Maheshate can sucker him into a fire fight, where Maheshate's natural abilities shine and Garcia's weaknesses can be exposed. Garcia hasn't shown to be overly durable, so if they start trading, I favor Maheshate's chin by a considerable margin. With that said, I think Garcia knows his path to victory and won't try to deviate from that plan.
Seung Woo Choi defeats Josh Culibao Result: Culibao by decision (2-4)
This fight reminds me of something I said about Allen vs Malkoun earlier. One could make the argument that this fight is fairly even and the stats would suggest as much. However, I come back to those fighters who are not fantastic athletes and in these close fights, I have a hard time picking them in a lot of cases. I think skill for skill, these two are more or less even, but Choi is a superior athlete and it shows. He is stronger, faster, and way more powerful. This projects to be a low output kick boxing battle and in those fights I like to lean towards the guy who hits harder and that is Choi here. With strikes landing being at such a premium, doing a lot of damage with each punch is imperative. Choi is going to come out and he is going to throw his punches with everything he's got and I think he is likely the one who will land the more damaging blows in this fight. He's also ever so slightly more active with the volume and defends strikes at a slightly better rate, so I'll lean his way.
Ramazan Emeev defeats Jack Della Maddalena Result: Della Maddalena by KO (2-5)
I'm going against the grain on this one. Della Maddalena is an exciting fighter who fights in a style that I really like, but I just think this is a really poor matchup for him. He relies on his solid boxing and forward pressure to put him in advantageous positions to throw heavy shots in combinations. He throws strikes with tremendous volume, but that does leave him open to counters coming back his way. I assume those on the JDM side are expecting that he just outworks Emeev over 3 rounds, which certainly wouldn't be the most surprising thing in the world. However, I think Emeev's style has him covered. Emeev does a great job of fighting at range and just landing jabs and one punch here and there while focusing his efforts to stop strikes defensively. His striking style is designed to prevent damage and set up his wrestling, which he should have success with here. JDM struggles against good grapplers, which I would say Emeev qualifies. In some of his early career fights, JDM is being taken down and controlled by grapplers nowhere near as good as Emeev is right now. I don't think Emeev is an amazing grappler, but I think he is pretty solid and pretty solid might be way more than enough in this one.
Jake Matthews defeats Andre Fialho Result: Matthews by KO (3-5)
A lot of the same sentiment I just talked about can be echoed here. Fialho is a solid and powerful striker, but he doesn't have nearly the same amount of success against opponents who won't just stand and trade with him. If there is anything Matthews isn't going to do, it is stand in the pocket and trade power shots with anyone. He is a slower paced striker who tries to limit the damage he absorbs. He is very sound defensively and should look to get to his takedowns here. Fialho hasn't proved to be a good grappler at any stage so far and I doubt that starts against Matthews. As long as Matthews doesn't just stand in front of Fialho, I think he basically has him covered. He is probably a more technical range striker and is certainly a better grappler.
Joanna Jedrzejczyk defeats Zhang Weili Result: Weili by KO (3-6)
I have to go with Joanna here. I think she is going to learn from her mistakes in the first fight and execute a better game plan this time around. Joanna is the overall more technical striker who is going to throw strikes at a greater volume. She is a great defensive grappler who should be able to keep this fight standing. She got into trouble in the first fight because she was a little too willing to trade with Weili, which brings into Weili's biggest advantage, which is the power. I think Joanna is going to come in focused and will keep this fight on the outside where she can land more strikes, while avoiding the more damaging and powerful shots coming back at her. Zhang will probably try to wrestle at some point, but Joanna is going to stuff those takedowns and she punished Weili in the clinch last time. I think Joanna gets this one back in route to another title shot.
Valentina Shevchenko defeats Taila Santos Result: Shevchenko by decision (4-6)
What do I really have to say here. I talked in my preview about how this is the most dangerous opponent Valentina has fought in a few fights and while I fully believe that, I don't think that Santos is nearly refined enough to pick up the win here. Valentina doesn't fight particularly well off of her back, but I don't think Santos is the one who can take advantage of that. I just don't see her landing takedown after takedown and then holding Valentina down. Shevchenko is too technically advanced to be beaten by just pure power and strength. Outside of a hail mary punch or submission attempt in a crazy scramble, this is Valentina's fight. There's levels to this game that Santos hasn't experienced yet and she'll learn that in this fight I believe.
Jiri Prochazka defeats Glover Teixeira Result: Prochazka by sub (5-6)
This is a tough one. My heart says Jiri and my head says Glover. Every time I'm in these spots I go with my head and I get it wrong. I didn't get to my preview for this, but this is going to be a wild ride for as long as it lasts. Either Jiri is going to flatten Glover and put him out cold, or Glover is dragging Jiri down and choking him out. I really don't see this playing out any other way. Jiri certainly has his weaknesses as a grappler and I think one takedown could be the end of the fight for him. Glover has one of the best top games in all of MMA still. However, he is 42 and his chin hasn't looked great even during this run. He's gotten dropped or hurt in almost every fight and Jiri hits harder than all of those other opponents. To me, I think Jiri's pressure will be the difference. As great as Glover is on top, he's not an amazing wrestler and if he is moving backwards the whole fight, I'm not sure his wrestling will be good enough to get the fight down. I just don't know that Glover's chin has it left to make this a long title reign, but I'm so glad it happened, even if it ends after one fight. I think Jiri finds the knockout here and gets the belt.
What do you guys think? Leave your predictions below. I'll be back to update this after the card. Thanks for reading, have a good one, and enjoy the fights.
UPDATE:
Weekly Record: 5-6
Previous Year to Date Record: 142 - 78
Updated Year to Date Record: 147 - 84
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