Well, I'm back from vacation and am doing this in a bit of a rush. It is 9:30 am on the east coast, so I'm going to try and get this out as soon as possible to keep the integrity of the picks up. I think this card is pretty fun and I know a lot of people don't like the really long cards, but I'm a fan. Give me as much action as possible even if the first fight or two aren't particularly high level. Just to be clear, my picks will be in the bolded font, and the real results will be listed next to it in italics after the fight is official.
Kyle Daukaus defeats Roman Dolidze Result: Dolidze by KO (0-1)
First fight of the night should be an interesting one, but I think Daukaus is the more skilled fighter here. I think he is simply the better striker and he is going to throw with more volume. Dolidze has good power, but he is so low output that, on the feet, I think he is basically limited to a one shot knockout. That is a possiblity, but I don't think Dolidze is Francis Ngannou or anything. Grappling wise is where things get interesting as it is probably where both men want to be. I think Daukaus is probably the more skilled grappler and wrestler from a technical perspective, but Dolidze will have a size and strength advantage there. Daukaus has had some issues at times getting stuck on the bottom or against the cage. My main concern with Daukaus are his athletic limitations, which is something I talk about every week, but I don't think this is the fight where it hurts him. He's just the more skilled fighter here and he should get this win.
Phil Hawes defeats Deron Winn Result: Hawes by KO (1-1)
This one is a bit of a weird one. Winn comes into this fight probably fighting for his UFC career and it isn't going to be an easy one for him. He's a decent wrestler and he has power that is respectable, but I just don't think that path works for him in this fight. He is severely undersized for this weight class and has cardio issues on top of it. Hawes has some cardio issues of his own, but I think his size, reach, and power advantage will probably be enough. Hawes should be a good enough wrestler to keep the fight standing and for Winn to land strikes, he is going to have to walk through the fire and I don't know how long he can deal with Hawes' power. I think Hawes ultimately gets the win here.
Cody Stamann defeats Eddie Wineland Result: Stamann by KO (2-1)
Not sure how exactly this matchup came to be, but I think it is set up for Stamann to get a win. Stamann is going to bring his grinding wrestling style and should be looking for takedowns virtually the entire fight. His stand up has improved over the years and it is at the point where he throws for a decent enough volume with about average power. Maybe in years past Wineland would be a much more interesting opponent here, but it looks like his career is winding down. He's on a really bad stretch and I'm not sure he is in a position to turn it around after all of these knockouts. If we get a prime Eddie Wineland performance here, this fight will be much closer than what the betting lines suggest though. Wineland has historically stopped takedowns well and throws strikes at a decent enough rate to cause problems. However, I don't think that version of Eddie Wineland exists anymore and we will see Cody Stamann get the win.
Gloria De Paula defeats Maria Oliveira Result: Oliveira by decision (2-2)
This fight is also a bit strange and I think it is setting up nicely for De Paula to pick up another win. De Paula has shown the ability to strike at range with a decent level of effectiveness whenever her opponents have allowed her to do so. Her problem has been her ability to be taken down and then held down for long stretches. Oliveira hasn't shown that wrestling ability to date and will be forced to stand. Oliveira throws with less volume and gets hit way more than De Paula does, so I don't think this is a good matchup for her at all unless she has developed an offensive wrestling game since we've last seen her. This should be De Paula's fight.
Ricardo Ramos defeats Danny Chavez Result: Ramos by KO (3-2)
This fight seems to me like it is going to be a close one. Both of these guys seem to be somewhat even in most regards and it will be the little things that separate it. They both absorb the same amount of damage on the feet, but Ramos is slightly more active. Chavez is pretty low output on the feet and his best weapon is probably his low kick game. In the grappling, I think Ramos is probably the better pure wrestler, but his top control game has lacked at times. He is much more comfortable trying to advance position and get to the back, which gives his opponents openings to get up and he does lose the takedown somewhat consistently because of it. I think Ramos is just slightly better, but Chavez is a tough guy who won't go away, so I wouldn't rule him out of this one at all.
Court McGee defeats Jeremiah Wells Result: Wells by KO (3-3)
This fight isn't making a ton of sense to me in terms of the betting line. I don't know how this fight is essentially even. Wells is the better athlete here with his power, speed, and explosiveness, but I'm not sure how far that can take him. In terms of MMA skills, I think they are either even or Court has the advantage. Wells path to victory is to get an early knockout and it certainly is possible. He has good power and while Court has only been knocked out once, he has been dropped a few times more recently. If that knockout doesn't come, I think McGee is going to be able to use his cardio to take control. McGee won't get tired and he is going to throw strikes at a really high clip and he is also going to wrestle relentlessly. I think the percentages really side with Court McGee here. I ride with Court McGee all the time and I'm going to continue that.
Jasmine Jasudavicius defeats Natalia Silva Result: Silva by decision (3-4)
I'm honestly not really sure what to make of this fight. Jasudavicius performed well against Kay Hansen, but how much can or should we put into that fight? Jasudavicius threw her strikes with a decent enough volume, but she was largely losing the striking exchanges against Hansen, who is known more for her grappling. Once she got the fight down, she was able to dominate much more easily. On the Silva side, there is just so much unknown that there really wasn't any way I could pick her. She's coming off of a multi year layoff and it is unclear what she will look like in her return. Prior to her break, she was very reliant on the armbar to get wins and while that is fine during regional fights, relying on submissions from guard at the UFC level is a very dangerous game to play. I think Jasudavicius probably controls this fight from top position and gets the decision win here.
Adrian Yanez defeats Tony Kelley Result: Yanez by KO (4-4)
This fight has a lot to talk about. First, both of these fighters are slightly different versions of each other. Neither like to wrestle much, they throw strikes with tremendous volume, and block all of the punches coming back with their face. The only real separation is a combination of two things. In favor of Yanez, he has the better power and if this fight is finished, he will probably be the one on top. Kelley doesn't get knocked out though, so that may not come into play as much. On the Kelley side, Yanez is kind of building a reputation as a really slow starter, which would position him to only need to win of the two remaining rounds to win the fight. On top of all of this, we are fighting in Texas, which has a reputation of some questionable judging decisions. Yanez is the fan favorite in basically all of his fights and he's fighting in his home state here, so the crowd will be behind him. On top of that, Kelley's comments about Brazil have more fans rooting against him here. With the crowd almost guaranteed to be 90+ % in Yanez's favor, I wonder if that is enough to sway judging that doesn't have a great history to begin with. Overall, I think Yanez is the faster and more technical boxer and that will serve him well in this fight. It is a lot closer than the betting lines suggest, but I still like the Yanez side.
Julian Marquez defeats Gregory Rodrigues Result: Rodrigues by KO (4-5)
This is just one of those fights man. If Gregory Rodrigues comes out with a gameplan that sees him wrestle for 15 minutes, he could probably win this fight somewhat easily. However, I do not trust him to follow that gameplan at all. He seems to prefer getting into back and forth wars on the feet, which gives Marquez the chance he needs. Marquez isn't completely lost on the ground, but we have seen him be put in bad positions on the ground by fighters who aren't nearly as good as Rodrigues is in the grappling. On the feet, this fight is probably pretty even. Both fighters throw bombs and don't defend strikes particularly well. Marquez has the durability advantage though and we have seen Rodrigues knocked out or wobbled on a few occasions. If I could trust Rodrigues to take the path of least resistance, I would pick him, but I think he opts for the war, which favors Marquez.
Damir Ismagulov defeats Guram Kutateladze Result: Ismagulov by decision (5-5)
This is getting a lot of buzz as probably being the best fight on the card outside of the main event and for good reason. I am the resident Ismagulov fan and I'm not backing off of that now. Kutateladze is a good fighter, but I think Damir is a bad matchup for him. Guram has really good power on the feet, but I think Damir has him covered. Damir should be able to manage distance better and land strikes with noticeably more volume. Guram does have wrestling ability as well, but defensively, I favor Damir here as well. I think he keeps this fight standing and is able to land shots on the outside and limit those big power strikes from Guram. I'm staying with Ismagulov here and think he should be more of a favorite in this fight.
Albert Duraev defeats Joaquin Buckley Result: Buckley by KO (5-6)
This is an interesting stylistic matchup. When Buckley wins, he wins by knockout. When Duraev loses, it is also by knockout. However, he is coming off of a fight where he was out wrestled by Abdul Razak AlHassan and also gassed out in the process. That was a very concerning result to me and I can't see past that here. Duraev is significantly better in the wrestling and grappling than Alhassan and anyone else that Buckley has fought. Buckley is certainly live to knock him out, but I think one takedown is all that Duraev needs.
Kevin Holland defeats Tim Means Result: Holland by sub (6-6)
I've seen a lot of people on Means this week and I get that to a high degree. However, I think the style matchup may be a problem for Means. Holland is huge for the weight class and will have a noticeable athleticism advantage. Holland has had problems with his defensive wrestling in the past, but he has shown improvement recently. Means isn't a phenomenal wrestler though and I think Holland can keep it standing. Means is going to come forward here and throw with really nice volume, but when he is coming forward against Holland, I think he is going to get hit hard and probably won't be able to survive it. Holland has very real power and I think that is what will ultimately win out here. Means prefers to get into wars and I think Holland is the wrong guy to do it with at this stage of Means career.
Donald Cerrone defeats Joe Lauzon Result: Cancelled due to Lauzon injury
What a fight this is. This fight comes down to this: Lauzon is going to start fast and Cowboy is going to start slow. Cowboy has had problems with being finished early in fights and that is certainly live here. However, Lauzon has about one round of gas and if the fight makes it into the second he will probably get finished himself. I think Cowboy will have a noticeable athleticism advantage, even at his age, and I think he should be able to get the win here.
Calvin Kattar defeats Josh Emmett Result: Emmett by decision (6-7)
As with most of his fights, Emmett's path to victory is for him to flatten Kattar here and that is certainly possible. Emmett has very real power for this weight and it only takes one for him. However, I think Kattar is the better striker and probably isn't going to be knocked out. Kattar is going to throw with volume and has very real power of his own. The concern here is that Kattar doesn't have the best striking defense and takes some shots even in the fights he wins. Holloway fight aside, Kattar still takes a lot of damage. If there's someone out there who can be the one to put Kattar down, it is probably Emmett. However, I just think Kattar's volume, chin, and overall striking ability is going to win out in this one. I think it being a 5 round fight also favors Kattar as well.
UPDATE:
Weekly Record: 6 - 7
Previous Year to Date Record: 147 - 84
Updated Year to Date Record: 153 - 91
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