Alright guys. I'm finally done with all of my interviews and after being in 4 cities over the last 5 days, I'm absolutely exhausted. This is going to be a bit of a lazy one this week, but I want to get the picks out for continuity purposes. I'm just going to list out the picks and try to keep the reasoning short this time. There isn't going to be a best bets or bets to consider section like normal this week as I just don't have it in me to do on Friday night and the card starts early tomorrow so I don't even have time to do it in the morning. If I have the energy, I'll put my bets at the end, but I may just take the week off from betting in general, depending how long it takes me to do the rest. Just to be clear, my picks will be in the bolded font, and the real results will be listed next to it in italics after the fight is official. Official bets will be at the bottom. Bets are now being officially tracked at BetMMA as well. Oh and I haven't updated last weeks yet, but I'll get on it soon.
Karol Rosa defeats Lina Lansberg Result: Rosa by decision (1-0)
Really going to commit to keeping these short. To me, Rosa is just the better fighter in this one. She's the more active striker and the better striker. She should be the better all around grappler as well. Lansberg is starting to get up there in age and she just hasn't looked quite the same recently either. Her one path to victory here would be to have success in the clinch, which is still possible, but I think that is just too narrow of a path for her to win this fight any significant percentage of the time.
Muhammad Mokaev defeats Malcolm Gordon Result: Mokaev by submission (2-0)
This should probably be another win for Mokaev as I don't really think Gordon presents him a ton of issues here. Mokaev has kind of proven at this point that he's going to be able to just out wrestle any opponent who isn't going to actually attempt to wrestle him back. Best case scenario here is for Gordon to stay safe enough that he makes it to a decision, but there is also the possibility that Mokaev just wipes him out. On the feet, Gordon does have some chance, but his durability has been an issue. I think Mokaev probably can knock him out if he decided he wants to keep the fight at range, but he will probably face less resistance in taking him down and controlling Gordon, so that is probably how this one goes.
Armen Petrosyan defeats AJ Dobson Result: Petrosyan by decision (3-0)
In a fight that should play out mostly on the feet, I have to go with Petrosyan. His biggest struggles have come against opponents who can take him down, with Dobson isn't really one to do. He's more one to look to slug it out on the feet, which is where Armen should have the advantage. Petrosyan is going to throw more strikes and he will have the technical advantage as well. The one spot for concern is that Petrosyan does have moments of poor defense, especially when his opponents come out aggressive, which Dobson will do. In that case, I think a Dobson knockout is a very live outcome, but Petrosyan will be winning a vast majority of the exchanges in this one so I have to lean his way.
Abubakar Nurmagomedov defeats Gadzhi Omargadzhiev Result: Nurmagomedov by decision (4-0)
This is a weird one. On one hand, I do kind of think Abubakar has him covered just about everywhere, but I don't feel good about it either. Both guys are grapplers and I think Abubakar is the better wrestler, but he's been submitted before. We've seen Gadzhi be aggressive in attempting submissions at times, so a finish is very live there for him. Similarly, I think Abubakar is probably the better striker, but Gadzhi does have pretty legitimate power that he throws his strikes with and he can probably land at least some here, so the danger is there as well. While I think Abubakar is the better all around fighter, the danger factor is there with Gadzhi to make me feel uneasy about it.
Nikita Krylov defeats Volkan Oezdemir Result: Krylov by decision (5-0)
This is a fight between two guys that I think I pick against almost every time they fight. I think Krylov's wider array of skills is what sets him apart here. On the feet, it could be moderately competitive. However, Krylov is a bit bigger, I think he has a bit more power, and he's also more durable. He also does a better job of limiting damage in my estimation. Volkan is certainly a competent striker, but I like Krylov just a tad more for those reasons. The difference is that Krylov has the ability to get takedowns here and I think he could dominate Volkan there if he got on top. Given that Krylov has all of the upside in terms of the grappling, I have to lean his way here.
Caio Borralho defeats Makhmud Muradov Result: Borralho by decision (6-0)
This is a fight where I think Borralho takes Muradov down and probably dominates him from top position. Muradov's striking could be enough for him to win this fight, but I just don't know how long he keeps it standing. Borralho isn't a bad striker either and is probably going to keep it at range until he can get the fight down. If Muradov had better cardio, I may give him a better chance here, but seeing him gas out early before really caps his ability to win this fight. Borralho eventually gets this fight to the ground and probably finishes Muradov sometime over the second half of the bout.
Belal Muhammad defeats Sean Brady Result: Muhammad by KO (7-0)
I've always had a tough time pinning down just how good Belal is, but I'm going with him here. This should be a really close fight and it's honestly a pretty important one. Belal's all around skill set will be enough for him to edge out a decision here in my opinion. Brady most likely needs to get this fight to the ground and while it wouldn't surprise me if he does, I think Belal can stay safe and work his way back to his feet. When the fight is standing, I think that is where Belal ultimately wins. Belal is a competent striker and throws good volume while staying safe on the outside. Brady's striking has seemed a bit rudimentary at times. He does throw some volume and he is powerful, but I just don't really suspect that he's landing frequently enough to out do Belal on points. Brady needs takedowns and he needs to do significant work while down there and I think Belal can do enough to prevent that and then win based on volume.
Manon Fiorot defeats Katlyn Chookagian Result: Fiorot by decision (8-0)
This is an interesting fight. Chookagian is a long, rangy fighter who wants to keep things on the outside and throw volume. She has used this style and had a ton of success and most haven't been able to come up with a solution for it. However, Fiorot does a lot of the same things and has a little bit extra. She is also a very good striker, especially from range. The difference is that she has a lot more power and could finish the fight standing. I also think she is the more likely to land takedowns here as well. Those two factors have me on the Fiorot side in what I think is probably a pretty close fight.
Mateusz Gamrot defeats Beneil Dariush Result: Dariush by decision (8-1)
This is an unfortunate one as I really like both of these guys, but I have to stick with Gamrot here. I like Gamrot quite a bit and think he could potentially fight for a title in the not too distant future. He's a good wrestler, competent striker, and brings a crazy pace. I largely think the cardio concerns for Dariush are a bit overstated, but I do think Gamrot could put a pace on him that he can't keep up with. However, I do think Dariush could have decent success on the feet here. Gamrot isn't the best striker in the world and Dariush can be dangerous. However, I just have a feeling that Gamrot is going to be able to control Dariush in the wrestling and spend most of this fight on top. We don't really have the evidence for that on the Dariush side, but it's just my suspicion.
Sean O'Malley defeats Petr Yan Result: O'Malley by decision (9-1)
I don't know man, sue me. I probably get labeled as a Yan hater and an O'Malley lover, but what can I say. Sean O'Malley does a lot of really good things. He's a good striker, he's a diverse striker, he has power, and he's extremely long. He throws a ton of volume and has shown the cardio to fight off of his back foot for an entire 15 minutes. Combine that with the fact that Petr Yan has consistently given away the first round of most of his fights and I think that is a recipe for a lot of Sean O'Malley success early. Sean also does a great job of using his length to exchange only when he wants to, which should help him here. I suppose Yan could try to wrestle him here and I don't doubt that he could succeed in doing so, but I don't really know how someone could predict him to do so when he's had that advantage against other opponents and never went to it. I think he is a very good boxer and think he is more powerful, but the length and distance management of O'Malley is going to be an issue. I like Yan late, but if he hasn't fixed the slow start problem, he could find himself behind here. It's really Yan's starts and his tendency to just give away free volume that concerns me for him. I know Sean didn't look great against Munhoz and his legs may very well be made out of Kleenex, but until we have solidified evidence that those two are consistent problems, I'm rolling with him here.
Aljamain Sterling defeats TJ Dillashaw Result: Sterling by KO (10-1)
Not a passionate take her on my part, but I'm just really not sold on where Dillashaw is at. He was gone for two years off a PED suspension, comes back against Sandhagen in a fight that I thought he lost, and the injures his knee and is out again for extended time. He's also now 36 years old. Put that up against Aljo who is in his prime and who is huge for the division and I don't like the sounds of that for TJ. Aljo will probably be the better grappler overall and even if he can't get the fight down, he can have success in the clinch. He also will have the better cardio as long as he doesn't dump it all like the first Yan fight. Dillashaw is probably still the better striker, but I think Aljo can at least compete there in terms of volume, so I think this is kind of Aljo's spot. If I felt more concrete in even a few of those spots for Dillashaw, I would probably take him here, but there's just way too many questions about his health and the general state of his skill set for me to want to pick him.
Islam Makhachev defeats Charles Oliveira Result: Makhachev by submission (11-1)
This is an uncomfortable fight for me to pick. On one hand, I think Islam should be able to wrestle Charles without too much of an issue here. Oliveira just doesn't defend takedowns very well and that is obviously where Islam wants to be. Islam is elite from top position, so I think he should probably be able to stay safe. The weird dynamic is how dangerous Oliveira is. It wouldn't completely shock me if he tagged Islam early and knocked him out. He could also jump on a guillotine or maybe even sweep or latch onto an armbar. I think Oliveira hitting any submissions from his guard are probably unlikely though. Islam should be fine from top and he should get takedowns without too much of an issue. Charles has to keep this fight standing if he wants to have a chance, but I just don't think he does that here. I sort of hope he does though just to hear him call out Khabib after.
I'm too tired to go into any betting here, so we'll take the week off. Thanks for reading though. Next card this post will return to full length with all of the bets as it typically does. Thanks for reading, have a good one, and enjoy potentially the card of the year.
Net Gain/Loss
Event Total: 0 units
Previous Year to Date Total: + 10.41 units
Updated Year to Date Total: + 10.41 units
UPDATE:
Weekly Record: 11 - 1
Previous Year to Date Record: 255 - 155
Updated Year to Date Record: 266 - 156
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