Last week, we got back on track with our bets, but the picks really just fell off a cliff. We're going to have to get that back in order. Unfortunately, we're getting one of the worst cards in awhile. You guys know that I'm usually one who can find the best in an event whether it is a couple of fights, a notable prospect or two, an interesting style dynamic here and there, or just some general entertainment value. This card is very, very thin on all of those outside of the top two fights on the card and another spot here or there. This card also doesn't lend itself to a ton of interesting bets either, but we'll get to that in time. While I do wish this event was better, this is the price we have to pay to get some of these loaded up cards for the stretch run of 2022, so I'll live with it. I do kind of wish we could've gotten just a fight or two from next week to make this one a bit more tolerable though. Even the Julio Arce vs Montel Jackson fight would've drastically improved this event, where placing one of the random fights from this card on the early prelims next week wouldn't change anything for the PPV. Anyways, I'm not going to complain too much because maybe tonight will surprise us and we'll get a decent event. Just to be clear, my picks will be in the bolded font, and the real results will be listed next to it in italics after the fight is official. Official bets will be at the bottom. Bets are now being officially tracked at BetMMA as well.
Ramona Pascual defeats Tamires Vidal Result: Vidal by KO (0-1)
We're starting the card off hot with the UFC debut of Tamires Vidal. I didn't know anything about her at all before looking into this card and I can't say I was especially blown away by anything I saw. She just looks to be incredibly raw and sort of relies on just being more physical than a lot of her opponents on the regional scene. Her striking is very rudimentary where she seems to be primarily a boxer, but she is sort of limited to a very low volume of overhands. I know I just said it, but I have to stress that her volume striking is nonexistent. I suppose I would call her a primary grappler, but her takedown game isn't much more advanced than her striking, if at all. She really doesn't have much in terms of technical takedown types and instead ends up trying to force her opponent to the ground based on pure strength. Vidal is young and inexperienced, so she should be improving, but she may be in over her head against UFC level competition. With that said, it isn't like Ramona Pascual is being pegged as a future title challenger. However, I think she should be fine in this spot. She has at least a definable skill set. I guess I would call her a grappler as well, although she's not a particularly efficient one. She does average 2 takedowns per 15 minutes though and I have to imagine that she could get Vidal down if she wanted to. She may actually have an easier path to victory on the feet here though as I can't imagine that she couldn't just out strike Vidal on the feet. Pascual isn't anything special on the feet and her defense has left a lot to be desired, but even the solid, but unspectacular rate at which she's landed strikes so far in the UFC would be plenty good enough to beat Vidal on the numbers without too much effort. This projects to be Pascual's fight to lose to me.
Bets to consider: Pascual ML +110
I just don't really get what someone saw that suggested to them that Vidal should be favored against Pascual or really anyone of consequence. I get that Pascual hasn't looked all that great in the UFC, but I guess I would ask any Vidal backers how they actually project her to win this fight. Pascual hasn't been finished in 5 years and Vidal just doesn't have the output to win a decision in my opinion. I think people are just fading Pascual because they know her and have seen her in the UFC cage before, but I think that is a mistake here. I think Pascual is playable at any plus number and should be lined as a smallish favorite. I definitely would keep it as a small play though and nothing too drastic.
Jake Hadley defeats Carlos Candelario Result: Hadley by submission (1-1)
This is one of those fights where the style dynamics make it more interesting than it originally seems on the surface. In general, I do think Hadley is just the better fighter here. He's going to be the better striker in this one and he'll pair it with athletic advantages. He will likely be faster both with his feet and with his strikes and will have the power advantage as well. I think Hadley has the better submission game as well and he's certainly more aggressive with it. I ultimately lean his way because I think there is a set of outcomes where we find out Hadley is just better than Candelario despite the style dynamics, but it does scare me for him. That dynamic is the fact that Hadley had a tough time with his defensive wrestling in his last fight and ended up getting controlled for a long time by Nascimento, who isn't thought of as a tremendous wrestler. Hadley gave up over 9 minutes of total control in that fight and it wouldn't really surprise me if that happened here. That really is Candelario's path to victory and he is a serviceable wrestler. You're not going to confuse him for Khabib or anything, but he does reliably and consistently attempt and finish takedowns. His cardio can hold up to that type of grappling pace as well. He's not a horrible striker, but he is on the lowish output side at times and his defense lacks at times as well. Combine that with the fact that Candelario lacks the high end athletic traits and I suspect that he'll be behind Hadley on the feet. I worry that his lack of strength and explosion could limit his wrestling success as well. I'm going with Hadley here, but Candelario is very live to pull off the upset with his wrestling and top control game.
Bets to consider: Candelario ML +220
This one is much more of a pure play of the number than any significant confidence in Candelario, but I just don't see a ton of scenarios where Hadley covers his -280 price tag. My general feel is that this fight goes to a decision and ends up being pretty competitive. If I'm going to the scorecards, especially with the way MMA judging has been recently, I would much rather be holding a +220 ticket than a -280. Hadley's last showing was very worrisome as Nascimento really isn't a high end wrestler or anything, but took him down multiple times and tallied a ton of control time. I think Candelario is a better wrestler than Nascimento and if Hadley hasn't improved his takedown defense and get up game, he could very well get stuck on his back again. I think this line is just a bit out of wack and will probably end up taking a small poke at Candelario. Even if he doesn't win at a horribly high rate, I feel good about him covering that price pretty consistently.
Johnny Munoz defeats Liudvik Sholinian Result: Munoz by decision (2-1)
Third fight in and we're going to keep it weird. I do lean, and I mean a slight lean, in Munoz's direction here. The reason is that his BJJ game is the best individual skill for either fighter in this one and it's by a lot. I'm not sure any skill for either guy other than that is at a fringe UFC level. Munoz falls into the pattern that we've seen plague so many jiu jitsu based fighters in that his wrestling just isn't good enough to consistently get the fight to the ground. If he does, I suspect that he can and will win, but that is a huge if. Should this fight stay standing, Munoz will struggle. His striking is very, very raw. His volume is nonexistent as is his power. Munoz isn't going to outstrike hardly anyone in the UFC unless he's made dramatic improvements since the last time we've seen him. As strange as it is to say, I kind of think Sholinian is the more well rounded fighter here. I have to default him to being the better striker, but it really isn't by much. He's also extremely low volume and doesn't have great power. The upside to him is that even against someone in Jack Shore who was clearly better, he still wasn't afraid to be aggressive and go forward. The hope is that Sholinian will keep up that aggression, but will feel more confident in throwing strikes since he'll be in there with an opponent who is less dangerous on the feet. I do really think Sholinian has a chance here as he showed very competent takedown defense against Shore, who is an infinitely better wrestler than Munoz. Stuffing 6 of 8 shots against Shore is reason to believe that he can stuff a majority of Munoz's shots. If Sholinian was more reliable to throw strikes, I think I would pick him here, but he just isn't. Being so low volume could hurt him. I also kind of wonder if Munoz could get to advantageous grappling positions directly from the clinch without getting a traditional takedown. This fight may end up being really messy and a tough one to score, but I'll go with the guy who has the only high end skill as a lean.
Bets to consider: Sholinian ML +205
I can hear everyone now saying that I'm on another underdog, but what can I say. I just went over a similar situation last week. We saw Chase Hooper as a huge favorite who is a grappling only fighter with below average wrestling. If Munoz can't get to his takedowns, he is going to be in trouble. Now, Steve Garcia last week was a much better bet to take advantage of the fight standing, but my point still stands. Unless Munoz can get takedowns consistently, there's really no way he covers his -260 price or really even comes close to it. I think Sholinian has shown the ability to stop most of the takedowns and I think he could even get some takedowns of his own if he wanted to. If this fight does end up being a standup fight, then it is going to be very low volume and very messy. I certainly do not want to be holding a Munoz -260 ticket in a 15 minute kickboxing match. I think Sholinian covers his price her more often than not and can win this fight at a very respectable rate. I think a small shot on him is warranted at anything +200 or better.
Polyana Viana defeats Jinh Yu Frey Result: Viana by KO (3-1)
We're keeping up the trend of strange fights with this one. This is a tough one to figure out for me. Neither fighter really brings a style that I actively look to back most times, but someone has to win and I'll lean towards the Viana side. In general, I think Frey is actually a moderately skilled fighter. She's a fairly technical striker and does her best work when countering. I think she is a competent wrestler as well and could look to use it more. The problem with Frey is that she doesn't use these skills in a way that translates to consistent wins. Despite having some ability to wrestle, she usually just chooses not to and opts to stand instead. While she is technical on the feet, her volume is so low that even when she can land her counter shots, she falls behind on the numbers pretty easily. Her defense also isn't all that great, so when she is waiting to counter, she can get touched up a bit. She also doesn't really have the power to just sit back and wait for counters and relying on finishes. Frey doesn't have many knockouts on her resume and I don't really expect that to start here either. I think Frey's best path to victory would be to look for takedowns and ride out minutes on top, but that is going to put her in the most dangerous spot she could be in as well. That brings us to Viana and her best attribute is her submission game. She gets a lot of submissions off of her back though, which lends her to giving up a ton of control time. The main issue is that Viana doesn't wrestle particularly well, so she struggles to ground fights at times. That leads her to having to pull guard and either submit off of her back or look for sweeps, which are high risk strategies to take. On the feet, Viana isn't nearly as clean as Frey, but she is a bit more reliable to put out volume. I think she is a little more trustworthy defensively as well. This fight should be pretty close, but I think Viana has almost all of the potential to finish this fight, so I have to give her the edge here.
Bets to consider: Viana by submission +360
This is sort of a tough fight to bet. On the money lines, I think the line is more or less correct. It may be starting to get a bit too far out there for Viana, but nothing that I'm looking to play. I don't think Viana really has the skill set to be a heavy favorite most of the time, but I do favor her here slightly. If I thought Frey would throw more volume or use her wrestling, I would be a lot more interested in taking the shot, but she doesn't, so I'm not. At +360, I just think that may be worth a dart throw. Viana is a favorite and I think submission is her most likely way to win, so I don't hate that look. I'm not going to play it, but if I were forced to play this fight in some capacity, I think this is how I would look to do it.
Mario Bautista defeats Benito Lopez Result: Bautista by submission (4-1)
To keep up the theme of odd fights, we're getting the return of Benito Lopez after a 3 year layoff against the dangerous Mario Bautista. Lopez is really a wildcard here as he's been away for so long that it's hard to really know what to expect from him at this point. Lopez is primarily a striker and he's been a pretty dangerous one for the most part. He's historically very aggressive and throws out a ton of volume with pretty decent power. The downside to that aggression is that Lopez takes way more damage than you would normally like. His grappling has been a weak spot for him and he hasn't always looked good off of his back especially. Add in the fact that we really don't know what to expect from him and there's a ton variance on the Lopez side. Even if this was a prime version of Lopez, I kind of think Bautista would kind of have him covered. I think Bautista is a better striker and should probably be faster as well. His pacing is more reliable, but the grappling is really where he should set himself apart. He will have a wrestling advantage as well as an overall grappling advantage and he may be able to really take control of the fight if it hits the mat. The one thing that worries me for Mario is that sometimes he lets his defense fall by the wayside and takes some clean shots. An additional advantage is that I think his cardio and pace are a lot more reliable and I think we could see a situation where Bautista is winning a moderately competitive fight and then he really pulls away over the second half of the fight.
Bets to consider: Bautista ITD +130
At the end of the day, this really should be Bautista's fight to lose. I think he's the better fighter and with this long layoff for Lopez, I'm really not sure what to expect from him. Bautista should have a really noticeable advantage on the ground and I think he would have a really good chance to finish Lopez there. Even if the fight stays standing, Bautista has the volume and power to find a knockout there as well. Lopez has never had the best defense in the world and after being away from the sport for so long, I have my concerns about what the state of his durability may be. On top of all of that, add in the cardio dynamic and Lopez may be in for a tough night at the office. I like Bautista in this spot a lot and think he probably finishes this fight more often than not, especially if this fight goes to the ground.
Miranda Maverick defeats Shanna Young Result: Maverick by decision (5-1)
I'm not going to spend a ton of time on this one as it should be pretty straight forward. If this fight stays standing for some reason, it may end up being moderately competitive, but I see no reason that it should stay standing. Young doesn't have particularly great takedown defense and she's not a great grappler in general. Maverick should largely be able to take her down at will and should be able to do whatever she wants from top position. I think it is just largely a matter of if Maverick finishes and how she goes about doing it. If Young somehow keeps this fight standing, she would at least have a chance. She doesn't have much power, but she does throw decent enough volume. Young does take a lot of damage though and I really don't expect her to stay off of her back much here. This is Maverick's fight to lose by quite a bit.
Bets to consider: Maverick ITD -130, U2.5 -108
This is an interesting fight to bet because the money line is so inflated. While this matchup does very clearly favor Maverick, you can't bet her at -750. The only real way to approach it would be a violence based approach and there's slightly different ways to go about it. To take Maverick ITD at -130 buys you an extra 2.5 minutes at a slightly worse line. The under gets you a little bit better odds, but you're losing that time, which Maverick could, in theory, need to finish the fight. The under also covers the small possibility that somehow Young gets the finish or if there's a Maverick injury or something. I'm probably not going to take a shot either way, but it's at least something to consider.
Shayilan Nuedanbieke defeats Darrick Minner Result: Nuerdanbieke by KO (6-1)
We have another strange fight with here and I'm not really sure how I should feel about it. Darrick Minner is such an interesting fighter in a sense that he has largely been a first round submission type of fighter. After the first round, his cardio fades on him badly and he can be finished after that. For as much as he's known as a submission type of fighter, his wrestling is pretty good. It's just that it starts to fail after he gasses out and then he gets stuck. I do also think Minner is the better striker in this fight. He's not especially high volume, but his power is at least respectable. Again, all of this is contingent on him being fresh. After the first round, he pretty reliably slows down though and if he does that here, he's probably going to be in trouble. Nuedanbieke is primarily a wrestler and I do think he's a better wrestler than Minner. I think the concern is just everything else. Minner has the submission advantage and he will certainly have the striking advantage. It really comes down to how long Minner can extend his cardio. If he can get to the top position later in the fight, I think he could win a decision, but I have real questions about how long that cardio can really last him. If it fails again, my inclination is that Nuedanbieke probably out wrestles him over the last two rounds, but this will be competitive for as long Minner can push. It would be interesting to see how this fight plays out if we get a striking battle though and maybe that is the way Minner can best extend his cardio. Nuedanbieke is very low output, so maybe that's how Minner is able to win multiple rounds.
Bets to consider: Minner ML +180, FDNGTD -152
You may be sensing a theme here, but I would much rather be holding the underdog ticket in this one than the favorite. When both fighters are fresh, I like Minner here. I suspect that he'll win the first round. It's really just a matter of if and when he slows down and how bad does it get. Minner won't look +180 early, but he could look +500 late in the second round too. This is just such a strange fight. If Nuedanbieke was more aggressive, then I would be more interested, but he's just not. He doesn't really push a pace that forces Minner to gas out and he won't really put it on him when he does start to slow. I think that extends Minner's cardio and gives him a real chance to win a decision if it gets there. More realistically, Minner will finish the fight early or he'll gas out and get finished late. I think the fight not going the distance at -152 is a pretty solid look, but I'm not sure if I'll actually take it or not.
Grant Dawson defeats Mark O. Madsen Result: Dawson by submission (7-1)
This will be an interesting fight to see exactly how it plays out. Both guys are primarily grapplers who really don't bring a whole lot in the striking. Dawson is more of your traditional wrestler and I think he is the better overall grappler here as well. He is typically very aggressive with his attempts and has the cardio to shoot takedowns for the entire 15 minutes. Once on the ground, he isn't just a positionally sound grappler either as he as pretty aggressive in attempting submissions. My feeling is that Dawson will probably have the advantage once it hits the ground, but it's a matter of if he gets the fight down. On the feet, Dawson doesn't throw great volume, but he does have some and it's something that it seems like he's working on. He does a decent job of limiting damage though, so he has that going for him. Madsen comes from a greco wrestling background, which we've seen have varying degrees of success in MMA, but it's an uncommon base these days. Madsen does get takedowns consistently, but he's starting to get to a place in the division where guys are going to be solid all around fighters, so we'll see how this translates. Even if he gets the fight down, Madsen is a position over submission style grappler and prefers to control over anything too damaging. On the feet, Madsen has a little more volume and I think their power is about equal. Madsen's striking defense hasn't always been the best, but he isn't completely awful either. The big thing has always been Madsen's tendency to slow down over the second half of the fight. I think this fight will be competitive early, but I think Dawson's relentless wrestling pace will wear Madsen down and we'll see Dawson getting takedowns more consistently as the fight progresses. If Dawson is in dominant position, I do think he could potentially submit Madsen as well, especially if he death gasses late.
Bets to consider: Madsen ML +184, Dawson submission +380
The way I see this fight from a betting perspective is that you can go one of two ways. Either you think this line is too wide or you think it's about right. I find it hard to believe that there are many people who think Dawson is the value side at -230. If you think it's too wide, which is kind of the side I lean towards, then taking the shot on Madsen ML is the way to go. What really scares me off of Dawson is the scenario where no one can get takedowns and they're forced to stand at range at strike. I don't want to be holding a -230 ticket on Dawson while trying to watch him kickbox his way to a decision. What ultimately scares me off of Madsen though is the combination of his cardio and his inability to finish fights. Almost all of the upside here is on the Dawson side. If anyone is going to finish, it is Dawson. I think if anyone is going to have dominant wrestling success, it's probably Dawson. I think best case scenario for Madsen is a really close fight where his cardio is hanging on by a thread at the end and +184 just isn't enough for me to play it. The other option is that you think Dawson -230 is the correct line. If you think that, that has to mean Dawson is getting takedowns and is going to be in good positions. In that case, he's going to have a very real chance to submit Madsen and +380 is at least tempting. If he isn't in a position to submit, then Madsen was probably the value side anyways. I've seen more than a few people have some pretty aggressive plays on this fight and I will not be one of them. It's just not a fight where I feel like I have a really confident feeling as to exactly what we'll see and I'm not sure what people are seeing that makes them feel otherwise.
Tagir Ulanbekov defeats Nate Maness Result: Ulanbekov by submission (8-1)
Keeping up with the theme of the evening, we have another strange fight. Maness is coming down to 125 lbs for the first time and despite looking like a skeleton, he was one of the fighters who actually made weight this week. Maness isn't really the kind of guy who I look to back often because he just has a generally negative style. He doesn't throw volume on the feet, he absorbs a lot of strikes, and he's not much of an offensive wrestler. He's really just a guy who relies on his big power to hurt guys so he can finish fights or steal rounds. His power was fine at bantamweight, so he should be fine there down a weight class. The huge questions is how compromised is Maness going to be. There's no way the cut doesn't impact him somehow, it's just how much. At the same time Tagir isn't the best or most dominant fighter in the world either. He does generally do things I like, but I think I overestimated his abilities in the past. He's not quite as good of a wrestler as I once thought, but he still is a solid one. Maness has decent takedown defense, but I do suspect that Tagir can get him down. Once on the ground, Maness has never really shown much of a get up game and seems content to fight off of his back at times. Tagir is sound enough to not get submitted and he should be able to hold him down and just lay on top of Maness. On the feet, Tagir isn't going to blow you away, but he does throw strikes with some type of pace. The one worry is that his striking defense has lapses and with the power of Maness, a knockout is certainly in play. As long as Tagir doesn't get knocked out, I suspect that this will be his fight to lose.
Bets to consider: Maness finish only +112
This is a weird fight to bet as the line on Tagir has kind of gotten a bit inflated. I like this fight for him, but there's no way you can play him at -235. He's a guy who really doesn't have the skill set to pull away in fights and his finishing ability is generally pretty low. To cover that price without a finish would require like 11 minutes of control time, which is possible, but I don't think we'll see Tagir that dominant. Maness holds a vast majority of the finishing upside in this fight and to get his finish only line at plus money is at least worth a second though. If Umar Nurmagomedov couldn't finish Maness on the ground, I don't see why Tagir would be able to. I guess the one big worry there would be the weight cut. Maybe he's so depleted that Tagir hits him with something flush and he just goes down. Other than that, I don't really see how Tagir finishes this fight, so I think Maness finish only is an interesting way to play this fight.
Chase Sherman defeats Josh Parisian Result: Cancelled
While this fight is a mess, it should at least be a fun mess. Sherman and Parisian are often clowned on social media for being some really low level fighters, but I think this fight should be entertaining enough to justify it's existence. For the second fight in a row, I'm picking Chase Sherman and I kind of like this spot for him. He should just be the better striker here. I think he has more weapons, more power, and he's just generally cleaner. His defense isn't great historically, but he is fairly durable and Parisian isn't bringing much power. Offensively, Sherman is a competent heavyweight striker. It's really his defense and cardio that has held him back, but I think this matchup limits a lot of those risks. Parisian isn't a very good wrestler, so Chase should be able to keep it standing and even if he goes down, he should be able to get back up. I actually think he'll have better cardio here as well. Parisian is a heavyweight who will throw strikes at a decent pace, but he only has about a round of gas to actually do so. He also doesn't wrestle particularly well or defend strikes that much. As long as Sherman doesn't put himself in a position to be submitted, he should be relatively ok here.
Bets to consider: Sherman by KO +165
This is kind of a tough fight to bet as well. The idea of betting Sherman at -140 is not very attractive, but I can't really bet Parisian either. The under 2.5 is around -170 or -180, which isn't that bad, but I don't know that there's huge amounts of value there either. I think a solid enough way to play it would be Sherman by KO. He's going to be landing clean shots with good power. After the first round, Parisian will be gassed out and I think Sherman will connect enough to get him out of there. It's a tough fight to play though as a lot of the lines are just sort of uninteresting. Parisian by submission is +950 though and we know Sherman has a history of being submitted by other fighters not known for being grapplers so, if you're feeling lucky then maybe that's the route to go.
Neil Magny defeats Daniel Rodriguez Result: Magny by submission (9-1)
While this fight still is weird, it should be a pretty good one. What makes this fight weird is that we have to project what exactly Neil Magny is at this stage of his career. He looked bad against Shavkat and while Shavkat may be fighting for the title in the near future, that just didn't look like Neil Magny to me. I would take a prime version or even the Magny from a few years ago in this spot without too much thought, but this declining version is what gives me pause. At the end of the day, I still think he has a wider array of skills and that may be enough for him to pick up a win. Rodriguez is the kind of fighter who needs the fight to take place at boxing range and in the pocket so he can get his volume off. If that's where this fight takes place, Rodriguez will win and he may even find a finish. Anywhere else and Neil should, at least in theory, have the advantage there. Historically, Magny has decent output and he can limit damage from range. He also does good work in close and I think he could clinch this fight up and do damage there. I think he also has all of the grappling upside as well. I think a prime Neil Magny handles this without too much of an issue, but I don't really think he's the guy anymore. I'll still lean his way here, but I suspect it will be pretty close.
Betting thoughts:
I'm not really even sure how to approach this fight from a betting perspective. Because we don't know what to expect from Magny, anything could be value in retrospect. I find it very unlikely we get a vintage Magny performance, but if we get something that at least reminds us of that, then he probably looks like value here as does his line by decision. If he really is done, then the Rodriguez line and the violence based plays probably look like value. I really don't have a good feel on which way to lean though because Daniel Rodriguez and Shavkat are very different fighters. Magny didn't look great against Griffin either, but he still won that fight. I kind of thing this fight looks a bit more like that one, but Magny would probably have very real advantages still. As long as he's not standing in the pocket with D Rod, he should still be ok. I don't really know where his cardio is at, but it has historically been great. Can he still move along the outside for a full 15 minutes and then come in and clinch? Maybe. Magny has had pretty solid defense for the most part as well. I just don't know how you bet this fight with any degree of confidence and there's no lines that really even stand out to me.
Marina Rodriguez defeats Amanda Lemos Result: Lemos by KO (9-2)
It's no secret that I'm a pretty big Rodriguez fan and I'm going with her here. I think she's the better striker with more volume and better cardio. That's essentially the story for Marina in most fights, but especially this one. She should really be able to win this fight at range without any problem at all as she manages range extremely well. Her striking defense is pretty solid as well. Her weakness has always come on the ground as her get up game really doesn't exist. I would say her takedown defense is just ok and if she gets to her back, she stays there for the rest of the round. She does try to do some things from her guard, but she's not really at the level where she's catching other UFC level fighters in any submissions. I assume that's something she's been working on, but she really needs to get it in her mind that she has to try and work her way up or she's going to lose a big fight that she otherwise shouldn't have. Lemos is sort of in a spot where she's damned if she does and damned if she doesn't. On one hand, if she chooses to stand and strike with Marina, she's probably going to lose, but that is her best bet for extending her cardio. On the other, she should have an advantage in the grappling, but shooting takedown after takedown is going to empty her gas tank even faster than normal. Lemos has a lot of good traits though. She strikes with really good volume and has a ton of power for the division. The problem in this fight is that Rodriguez is way cleaner. Lemos already is a bit hittable and in this matchup, I think Marina would be able to land basically whenever she wants. The power threat is there for Lemos, but she really doesn't have much else on the feet for Rodriguez. I would say that, overall, Lemos is just an ok grappler, but she will be better here. Her wrestling isn't anything special and she averages just over 1 takedown per 15 minutes, while not being extremely efficient. She may have the strength though to force a takedown that maybe she wouldn't normally have finished. She should be able to hold Marina down since she really doesn't try to get up and win rounds that way. The cloud that hangs over all of this for her is that her cardio just really isn't there. We've seen her gas out around the midpoint of 3 round fights multiple times now and if she does that here, Rodriguez will have multiple rounds to just put it on her. That's where she's sort of stuck. She can try to extend her cardio as much as possible, which probably means she'll be striking from range. I think she loses that fight pretty consistently. If she fights the best strategy to win each round, she'll be shooting a lot of takedowns and I don't think she has the gas to do that for more than a couple of rounds at most. She needed to really work on that this camp to have a real chance here, but I like Marina to have this fight standing more often than not and then punishing Lemos there. I think this is a decent spot for her.
Bets to consider: Rodriguez 4, 5, or dec +110
It's time for my weekly 4, 5, dec bet in the main event, but what can I say. As long as we don't see another injury, I think this one fits just fine. Rodriguez isn't really a crazy finisher, so a finish for her would probably come late after Lemos is gassed out. I think Rodriguez wins the final rounds a vast majority of the time and a late finish is very live. I don't suspect we see an early Lemos finish as Marina will have a noticeable striking advantage, so I think the chances of a knockout are low. Marina has historically had pretty solid submission defense, so I don't expect her to be submitted either. At +110, I just think this is the obvious way to play this fight.
That's it for me here. Leave all of your bets and predictions in the comments. Thanks for reading, have a good day, and enjoy the card. Official bets are below.
Official Bets
Ramona Pascual ML .5 units +110 to win .55 units - .5 units
Carlos Candelario ML .5 units at +220 to win 1.10 units - .5 units
Liudvik Sholinian ML .5 units at +205 to win 1.03 units - .5 units
Mario Bautista ITD .5 units at +130 to win .65 units + .65 units
Marina Rodriguez 4, 5, dec 1.5 units at +110 to win 1.65 units - 1.5 units
Net Gain/Loss
Event Total: - 2.35 units
Previous Year to Date Total: + 11.52 units
Updated Year to Date Total: + 9.17 units
UPDATE:
Weekly Record: 9 - 2
Previous Year to Date Record: 270 - 163
Updated Year to Date Record: 279 - 165
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