The time for the first UFC pay per view of the year is upon us. We're coming off of a good first UFC card of 2023 and hopefully taking that momentum and building on it. Being in front of a crowd, especially a Brazilian crowd for the first time in a few years, should only help. We have two really great fights to end the night and the rest of the action should end up being pretty solid too in my opinion. I'm excited to get into this one, so let's not waste any time. Just to be clear, my picks will be in the bolded font, and the real results will be listed next to it in italics after the fight is official. Official bets will be at the bottom. Bets are now being officially tracked at BetMMA as well.
Daniel Marcos defeats Saimon Oliveira Result: Marcos by KO (1-0)
A bit of a strange fight to start the night as I'm not entirely sure what I should make of either of these guys. Neither guy has a history of fighting great competition, so that doesn't help matters. If I had to simplify this fight as much as I could, I guess I would say the outcome hinges on Oliveira's ability to get takedowns. If he can have grappling success, then he will probably be able to do enough to win this fight. If he can't, then I think I prefer Marcos on the feet. It's a hard fight to really pin down because I just don't feel like either guy has many reliable data points. I don't really trust Oliveira's wrestling, but if he does get takedowns, I think he is the better grappler. Marcos does have at least ok enough takedown defense for this level of fight, but that isn't saying a whole lot. On the feet, I think Marcos has a very slight technical advantage and he'll have an aggression advantage as well. He's much more willing to engage and throw out volume. What really throws a wrench into all of this is that neither guy has reliable cardio, so it's really a guess as to what the back half of this fight even looks like. Maybe I'll look stupid, but I just think I trust the striking of Marcos a bit more. He may have a slightly better gas tank as well. Once this fight starts to get sloppy, I think it's more likely to stay standing, so I have to lean Marcos.
Bets to consider: Marcos ML +130, O2.5 rounds -118
For a pretty low level fight, I think this one has some interesting spots. Marcos money line is more of a pure play on the number than any legitimate degree of confidence in him though. Ultimately, I think this fight is a 50/50 low level fight, so getting one guy at +130 provides a somewhat interesting opportunity. I'm even more interested in the over though. Neither one of these guys are true finishers. Oliveira attempts submissions, but I'm not convinced he gets to many takedowns. Marcos isn't much of a finisher on the feet and he doesn't have the gas to really put it on guys. The cardio component could go both ways. One guy could just completely empty the tank and get finished because they can't defend themselves. However, I'm more on the side that they both know they can't push much of a pace and we get a slower paced fight that goes over pretty comfortably.
Josiane Nunes defeats Zarah Fairn Result: Nunes by decision (2-0)
I don't really have a ton to say about this fight because there really just isn't much to say. Nunes is extremely undersized for the division and I'm not here to tell you that she's going to be the one to beat Amanda Nunes, but she really shouldn't have a problem here. She's a solid striker and she brings good volume and good power. She doesn't have the best striking defense in the world, but she should be fine. Zarah Fairn is in a tough spot. She's fought some very questionable competition and has struggled since coming over to the UFC. She's been submitted by Megan Anderson in 4 minutes and knocked out by Felicia Spencer in 3 and a half minutes. Her last fight was almost 3 years ago now and she's approaching 40 years old. She hasn't landed strikes at a great rate and has taken a ton of damage. This is Nunes' fight to lose.
Betting thoughts:
There's really no reason to bet this fight as things currently stand. I don't think there's a number where betting Fairn would make sense. Nunes is a huge favorite, but it is probably deserved. There's just no value to be had at -620. Everyone was looking to be on the under so much that it is now an O/U 1.5. The under is at +108 and Fairn hasn't made it past the 4 minute mark in her UFC career, but betting a WMMA under 1.5 just seems like a great way to lose money. I probably won't be looking to make any play on this fight.
Nicolas Dalby defeats Warlley Alves Result: Dalby by decision (3-0)
This is another uncomfortable fight to pick. Dalby in general is a tough guy to pick fights for or against because of his style. He doesn't have enough output or present enough danger to dominate or finish anyone. However, for some reason, he always finds a way to keep fights very close and competitive. As far as this matchup goes, I think Dalby is the better technical striker with a more refined game. His cardio isn't anything special, but he will be the fresher fighter in the later rounds if it is able to get there. Alves does have legitimate paths to victory here, but they're kneecapped by the fact that he gasses out after only a few minutes. I'm not even sure it's a true cardio problem, but he just comes out and empties the tank looking for an early finish and doesn't have anything left if he can't get it. I don't think he's the better striker, but he will be faster and more powerful. He is also probably the better grappler. I do have some concern about his defense though as he is pretty open to being hit. Alves has almost all of the finishing potential here, but if he doesn't get that finish in the first round, I think Dalby is able to handle him. I think Dalby's movement will be able to limit how much Warlley lands in the early exchanges as well. I don't feel good about it, but I think I prefer Dalby slightly in this one.
Bets to consider: Dalby ML +102
This is sort of a tough fight to bet as it does have a fair amount of variance. However, I just find Alves being a favorite to be kind of odd. His finishing potential is certainly there, but if it doesn't come within the first 4 minutes or so, it probably isn't coming at all. Dalby isn't the greatest fighter of all time, but he doesn't have a history of being finished early or anything. If Alves empties the tank early like he usually does, then Dalby is at least decent enough to win those final two rounds a nice chunk of the time in my opinion. I just think the cardio dynamic makes this a fight where Dalby should be the slight favorite instead of Alves. This isn't one I'm running to the window to play it, but it is a spot where a bit of value may be able to be extracted.
Ismael Bonfim defeats Terrance McKinney Result: Bonfim by KO (4-0)
This should be a pretty fun one for as long as it lasts, which probably won't be all that long. McKinney is the type of fighter who comes in and looks to create chaos and an opening for a finish. He's done a decent job of it, but it's been against competition that either isn't all that great or was willing to engage in that style of fight back. When he got a fighter who could match him and be durable enough to last, McKinney gassed out and got finished himself. McKinney has a lot of really great skills while he's fresh though. He's fast, powerful, and explosive. He's a solid enough wrestler and has an interesting submission game to go with it. It's really just the fact that he empties the tank in the first 3-4 minutes and then is left with nothing that holds him back when he doesn't finish the fight. Bonfim is a somewhat intriguing prospect and he is more than good enough to finish McKinney if he lasts. The grappling of McKinney is really the concern for Bonfim. I think McKinney is a good enough wrestler with enough physicality that he could get Bonfim down and potentially do good work there if he wanted to. On the feet, I think Bonfim is the better, more refined striker. All of that is kind of secondary though. It will all come down to whether or not Bonfim survives the early McKinney onslaught. I think he can and that he'll find the finish not too long after.
Bets to consider: Bonfim ML +100
This isn't an easy fight to bet because it's going to be crazy. It's hard to really find anything reliable to bank on besides McKinney coming out hot. The fight being lined with McKinney as a small favorite is fine in theory I guess, but I would switch it. I think Bonfim wins this fight 90% of the time or greater if this gets to round two. I don't think McKinney is that lethal of a finisher where he can be expected to finish a fight at that degree, especially against someone in Bonfim who is largely a durable guy. I don't know that I'll take the plunge, at least if the number stays steady, but I don't hate anyone who does.
Cody Stamann defeats Luan Lacerda Result: Stamann by decision (5-0)
This is an odd fight and one that Cody Stamann really shouldn't have too much of a problem with. Lacerda is making his UFC debut and we don't really know a whole lot about him. His game seems pretty raw overall. His jiu-jitsu seems to be solid and he does some nice things there. Stamann has been submitted in the past, so that isn't a completely ridiculous thing to imagine happening here. However, Lacerda really doesn't seem like the rest of his game is legitimate enough to set up any of those submission attempts against real UFC competition. His wrestling and striking really just don't seem to be there at this stage and I imagine he struggles here. Stamann is just a steady fighter. He's not really spectacular in any way, but he should just be better. He's the better striker and he puts out decent volume with a solid enough pace. He's going to be a better wrestler as well if he needs it, but he would only be putting himself at risk by trying to shoot in this one in my opinion. Stamann should be able to cruise to a nice win here most of the time.
Bets to consider: Stamann ITD +300
This is a bit of a risky one, but it may be worth it. Stamann at -400 on the money line doesn't present any value and I'm not looking to bet on Lacerda either. I think inside the distance based plays are the way to go. For Stamann to look anywhere near his price, he's going to have to get at least close to a finish. He really should be able to dominate this fight, so a finishing sequence has to be expected, despite the fact that he doesn't have great power. Maybe just play the under and that covers a Lacerda submission if you want. I don't think I'll do, but it isn't the worst route to go if you want some action on this fight.
Jailton Almeida defeats Shamil Abdurakhimov Result: Almeida by KO (6-0)
This is a fight where Jailton Almeida is set up to succeed. Really everything about this matchup is created to get Almeida a win over a ranked opponent and get the most out of what is likely to be the last UFC fight for Shamil. Shamil is starting to get up there in age and you can see that he's coming to the end. His durability is starting to fade and he's getting finished pretty consistently these days. Some of the technical skills are still there and he was having success against Chris Daukaus not too long ago, but I don't think that helps him too much here. He's so low volume that I'm not entirely sure he could even force Jailton to gas out if he wanted to. Shamil hasn't defended takedowns at a great rate over his career and I think Almeida will get him down and do a lot of work on top. Once he's in dominant position, Almeida will be able to finish Shamil in any way he chooses. I guess the best route to victory for Shamil would be if he can somehow stuff early takedowns and then win a technical kickboxing match against a gassed out Jailton? I'm not really even sure. This should be a good spot for Almeida.
Betting thoughts:
Betting this fight is near impossible. Everything is really just far too juiced to really feel good about anything. Even the violence based plays are smoked. Jailton round 1 is over -200. Unless you really want to take the plunge on Shamil, then this should be a safe pass spot. A few fights ago, I would have been more interested in Shamil at +600, but he's just been showing his age lately. Fight to start round 2 is +178, so maybe that's the way to play it if you must.
Mounir Lazzez defeats Gabriel Bonfim Result: Bonfim by submission (6-1)
Maybe this is some sort of hot take, but I kind of like Lazzez in this one. I don't necessarily think Bonfim is a bad fighter or anything, but I just have some questions about him. Mainly, I wonder how his cardio holds up in extended fights and I don't like some of the things we've seen from him defensively on the feet. I do think he's a solid striker, at least in terms of landing his own damage. He throws solid output with power. He just gets hit a lot on the feet and now that he's facing legitimate competition, I have questions about how he'll be able to deal with that. I'm also not sure that his gas tank is deep enough to fight extended minutes of a competitive fight. He doesn't have the strongest competition in his rearview mirror, so fighting someone like Lazzez represents a significant step up for him. At the same time, it's not like I think Lazzez is a future contender. However, I think his experience will be an advantage here. He throws back some solid volume of his own with good power as well. The difference is that we know his cardio can hold up and we know he's relatively durable. He is a bit of a slow starter and if he's just going to let Bonfim put it on him early, he could find himself in trouble. I don't really think we see a ton of grappling in this fight either as Lazzez isn't the best offensive wrestler, but he does a pretty good job of stuffing takedowns and returning to his feet if he does hit the floor. I just trust Lazzez a bit more in this spot.
Bets to consider: Lazzez ML +136
To me, this is a line you just have to take. I'll be holding my breath for the first few minutes, but once this fight starts to extend, I'll be feeling more and more confident. Seeing fighters making their UFC debut at moderately sized chalk numbers is just sort of a default play most of the time. If it turns out that Bonfim can fight a competitive 15 minutes without issue, this may not look great, but I really think he's going to end up slowing down and we see Lazzez take over the back half of this fight. I think this fight should be closer to a pick em, if not Lazzez as a small favorite.
Thiago Moises defeats Melquizael Costa Result: Moises by submission (7-1)
This is the kind of fight where you're just sort of asking for trouble. I've never been the biggest Thiago Moises fan in the world, but he really should be ok in this one. He seems to me to just be the better fighter in every facet in this fight. On the feet, things could be moderately competitive, but even then, I think Moises is just the more advanced fighter at this stage of their careers. He is on the low volume side though, so Costa could at least compete there. If Moises chooses to grapple, that will likely be his easiest path to victory. I think he could dominate on the mat and should probably be able to find a submission. The thing with Moises though is that he's just not reliable. Sometimes he just has a weird gameplan or he just doesn't look like himself. He's just not the most consistent or trustworthy fighter in my opinion, but this matchup should serve him well.
Betting thoughts:
This is another fight that just feels too far gone from a betting perspective. There's really no reason to bet Costa here and you can't bet Moises at -400. I don't know if I really trust Moises to fight the way he should and even if he does, he's not the most prolific finisher in the world. He's just a hard guy to pin down in a fight where the other party is almost a complete unknown. I don't really see any need to lose money on this fight.
Gregory Rodrigues defeats Brunno Ferreira Result: Ferreira by KO (7-2)
We have yet another fight where I think the favorite has the underdog pretty much covered. Rodrigues really should win this fight however he wants. Based on what I have watched of Ferreira, I'm not quite convinced that he's truly UFC caliber. He seems to have some power, but I'm not really sure where he excels beyond that. I don't think his striking is really anything special and the same goes for his grappling. Rodrigues isn't the most durable guy in the world. We've seen him hurt on more than a few occasions now, but he doesn't actually get finished and is able to recover well. He doesn't defend strikes, which is an issue though. However, offensively, I think he's the better striker. He'll be able to land early and often. I think he has the better power and can probably find the knockout here. He probably should grapple and he would likely be able to submit Ferreira, but he just doesn't go to his wrestling very often at all. Rodrigues should win and unless something crazy happens, he should get the finish. He's more proven against tougher competition and probably has the better cardio to go with it.
Bets to consider: Rodrigues by KO +110
This isn't the best number in the world to play, but it's better than I thought it would be. Seeing Rodrigues -240 to win ITD, but +110 by KO doesn't make a ton of sense to me. I understand that he will have a grappling advantage, but we've said that before and he just doesn't use it. If he's going to finish this fight, it has to most likely be by knockout, so to still be getting that at a plus number was surprising. I'm not saying I'll actually make the play, but I think you could and it wouldn't be ridiculous.
Ihor Potieria defeats Shogun Rua Result: Potieria by KO (8-2)
This fight isn't fun to talk about. I don't particularly enjoy speaking negatively about any fighter. I especially don't enjoy speaking negatively about the legendary fighters of our sport. However, it's been over for Shogun for a few fights now. He just doesn't look like himself at all. This was once one of the baddest men on the planet and we're only a few fights removed from him tapping to strikes against Paul Craig. If Shogun could somehow turn back the clock, he would win this fight easily. Potieria really doesn't present any issues he hasn't seen before. He's a big, strong, explosive guy. He has power and that's really about it. He's not a particularly technical striker and he's not a good grappler either. On top of that, he really doesn't have more than a round of gas, although he is aggressive while he's fresh. If Shogun somehow survives the early going, he does have a shot. Once Potieria is gassed out, Shogun can probably strike with him and he can definitely grapple him. Shogun could almost certainly submit him if the fight got to the ground, but I have my doubts that we'll see the fight grounded. I hope that Shogun finds a way, but I don't feel great about it.
Bets to consider: Rua ML +176
As sad as it has been to watch Shogun lately, you really can't bet Ihor at over -200 can you? Betting Ihor at over -200 and having him lose would make me question whether I even liked MMA anymore to be honest. Shogun really is the only side and I feel like everyone kind of wants to bet him, but can't. It's really the Paul Craig fight, more than that St. Preux fight that is keeping me off of him right now. Shogun really should win this fight and to get him at +176 isn't the worst look ever, but I really don't think I can bring myself to do it.
Johnny Walker defeats Paul Craig Result: Walker by KO (9-2)
Trying to predict this fight is probably a giant waste of time, but here we are. These are two of the most unpredictable fighters on the roster. Walker is just a walking meme at this point. He's a huge, explosive athlete who used to fight like a wild man, but now he tries to fight like he's Sean Strickland. He strangely wants to keep distance and use kicks to the body and jabs to stay at range. Walker is probably a better grappler than he gets credit for and we saw evidence of that last time out. Craig is one of the most unique fighters on the roster at this stage. He's really a one dimensional BJJ based fighter, but he does it in a way that has been effective for him. He comes out heavy on the pressure and really forces his opponent to engage with him. He tries to create chaos where he can either get the fight to the ground or he just pulls guard. He may be one of the best in the game at submitting guys from his guard and Johnny Walker is certainly the type of fighter who is susceptible to that kind of thing. Craig is tricky and I feel like he definitely could bait Walker into something and end up triangling him. However, Craig could also pressure his way right into a bad knockout. I just think Walker is the more talented all around fighter, so I have to go with him here.
Bets to consider: Craig by submission +300
If you're going to play Craig in this fight or any other fight, it almost has to be by submission. It's really his only way to win against competition of any significant level at this point. I can't really bet Walker at -200 right now and I don't see any point in taking the Craig money line. I don't know what a Craig knockout or decision really even looks like. Honestly, I think the over 1.5 rounds at +134 is at least somewhat intriguing. If Walker is going to be slow paced and Craig can't get the fight to the floor, then we could see a bit of a staring contest. Ultimately, this fight is too hard to predict for me to really be looking to make a play at all.
Jessica Andrade defeats Lauren Murphy Result: Andrade by decision (10-2)
It's really not much of a secret that I haven't been the biggest Lauren Murphy fan and it's really nothing personal, I just think her upside is so limited against these other top 5 level opponents. Murphy's best qualities have always been her toughness and physicality. She still has those things, but as she approaches 40, they will eventually start to slip. In terms of MMA skills though, I think she is just a step behind the other elite level women. Her striking is fine, but she doesn't fight with any significant pace and doesn't have tremendous power or speed. Her wrestling is also ok and her physical strength has allowed her to be successful in the grappling both offensively and defensively. Without the high end explosion though, she's struggled to finish takedowns at times and she just isn't really capable of finishing fights with any degree of consistency. Where Murphy lacks, Andrade's excels a lot of the time. She does fight with an aggressive pace and pressure. She does bring very real power. She's not the best grappler in the world, but she holds her own there and probably has the more developed submission game. I think Murphy can keep this fight moderately competitive, but I struggle to see exactly where she'll be able to beat Andrade consistently for 2 out of 3 rounds. Andrade doesn't have the best defense in the world, but Murphy doesn't strike with enough volume to really out point her and she doesn't have the power to finish her so, I'm not sure it makes too much of a difference.
Bets to consider: O2.5 rounds -124
As for the money lines, you're really trapped by the number. The fight will probably look more competitive than -520 for Andrade, but I really don't believe Murphy wins this fight very often at all. The better play is the over. Murphy has very little finishing equity in this fight. She's not going to get a knockout for reasons I just went over and she doesn't really even have a submission game. As for Andrade, she could finish in theory, but Murphy has only been finished by Shevchenko and it took championship rounds to do it. I think Andrade wins, but this one should go over at a much higher rate than the line suggests.
Gilbert Burns defeats Neil Magny Result: Burns by submission (11-2)
As a Magny fan, this is a bit of an unfortunate fight. Neil Magny will probably go down as having one of the more underrated careers of his time, but it won't be because of this fight. Gilbert Burns is really the perfect opponent to beat him. Magny typically struggles against grappling heavy opponents who are going to put on the pressure and that's exactly what Burns will do. He's going to use his big power strikes to back Neil against the cage and then he should be able to take him down without too much of an issue. Burns has some of the best BJJ in the sport right now, so he can probably submit him once he grounds the fight. We also know Burns has great power, so a knockout via ground and pound or if he just has Neil trapped against the cage is possible too. The one real path for Magny is that Burns really doesn't have great cardio and he's not the most durable guy ever, especially once he gets tired. If Neil can somehow force him to gas early, then he has a chance. The odds of a Magny finish aren't great as he just doesn't have that kind of power. Even a gassed out Burns may be able to hit a takedown and it wouldn't surprise me that much. Neil also hasn't really seemed like his old self recently and his age may just be catching up with him. This should be a good spot for Burns.
Bets to consider: Burns ITD -125
This isn't a great fight to bet, but if I had to, I think Burns inside the distance is the route. I think Burns is going to be able to get takedowns here pretty easily. If he's going to be on top of Neil Magny for extended minutes, he will almost certainly finish. Between his power and elite submission game, it feels like almost a foregone conclusion that he would finish the fight on the mat. It's not a great number, but it's at least something.
Brandon Moreno defeats Deiveson Figueiredo Result: Moreno by KO (12-2)
Well, this is now the fourth time we're seeing this fight and I'm not sure what else can really be said about it at this point. There's really not even much room for speculation as we've seen these two doing basically everything that can be done in an MMA fight. Both guys are super close in most aspects. It really comes down to Figueiredo's power and moments against Moreno's volume and cardio. In the first and third fights, we saw Figueiredo's cardio hold up and they were close, but he came out on top both times. In the second, the weight cut got to him and he looked horrible. He's only getting older now and the cut looks like it really kills him. He didn't look great on the scale at all. In all likelihood, Figueiredo is going to have to get knockdowns or near finishing sequences again if he wants to win a decision. Whether it's only the weight cut or his cardio just isn't great, I don't think he can match Moreno's pace for 25 minutes. He's going to need big moments in order to win and I just don't know if he can get them again. Moreno is the younger fighter as well. I think he wins it this time and puts this saga to bed.
Bets to consider: Moreno 4, 5, or dec +160
I think this fight gets pretty deep regardless of the outcome. I'm not expecting an early finish on either side, so the 4, 5, decision prop is where I went. Deiveson was +180, but I'm on the Moreno side, so I like him at +160. Maybe I'm just getting selfish, but I think the extra risk is worth the better payout on this one. Moreno could find that late finish if Figueiredo's cardio completely fails him, so I rather this than just the decision prop.
Glover Teixeira defeats Jamahal Hill Result: Hill by decision (12-3)
This is going to be a lot of fun for as long as we get to watch it. This fight is being billed as striker vs grappler and while that is true to a degree, I don't think it's giving enough credit. Hill is the striker and he is a very good one. He's long, fast, and powerful. We've seen him put guys lights out with a single shot in impressive fashion. He has the youth on his side as well. The concern for Hill is that we've seen him out grappled before. He was submitted by Paul Craig, but he was also taken down several times by Thiago Santos, who isn't much of a grappler. That's where Glover should come in and succeed. He's going to take Jamahal Hill down unless he gets knocked out in the opening exchange, which is possible. Once Hill goes down, I think he's in a lot of trouble. Glover probably has the best top game amongst active fighters. He won't give up position easily and he's going to do a ton of damage there. I don't think Hill is going to be able to do the "fuck it, just stand up" defense that Jiri was able to pull off against Glover as he's just not that caliber of physical specimen. Once Glover gets on top, I kind of think that's the beginning of the end. There's some people out there who just sort of boil the fight down to that and almost imply that Glover is Ben Askren. Glover is more than capable of handling himself on the feet. He's not as durable as he once was, but he's not just getting knocked out left and right either. Hill can certainly put him out, but if Glover is who we've seen him be over his last few fights, I think he wins here.
Bets to consider: Teixeira ML +116
I don't understand how this line got here. I'm not going to repeat what I just went over, but Glover should be a smallish favorite here. He's the more proven and more well rounded fighter. Outside of just getting clipped and knocked out, Glover should win this fight. He should be somewhere around at least -150 in my mind and that's giving serious respect to Hill.
That's it from me on this card. Leave all of your predictions and bets below. Thanks for reading, have a good day, and enjoy the card. Official bets are below.
Official Bets
Marcos/Oliveira O2.5 rounds .5 units at -118 to win .42 units - .5 units
Mounir Lazzez ML .5 units at +136 to win .68 units - .5 units
Andrade/Murphy O2.5 rounds 2 units at -124 to win 1.61 units + 1.61 units
Moreno 4, 5, dec 1 unit at +160 to win 1.6 units - 1 unit
Glover Teixeira ML 2 units at +116 to win 2.32 units -2 units
Net Gain/Loss
Event Total: - 2.39 units
Previous Year to Date Total: + .81 units
Updated Year to Date Total: - 1.58 units
UPDATE:
Weekly Record: 12 - 3
Previous Year to Date Record: 9 - 2
Updated Year to Date Record: 21 - 5
2022 Winning Percentage: 62.919%
2021 Winning Percentage: 60.000%
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