The cold streak has lasted long enough. We have to turn these bets around at some point and there's not better time to start. The picks are doing just fine, even after a mediocre event last week, but the bets have really taken a nose dive. We can't win it all back at once, but we can start. UFC 284 is an odd event. In terms of a PPV card, it's really not all that great. We aren't getting a lot of the Australian fighters that you would expect. Dan Hooker, Robert Whittaker, Carlos Ulberg, Jacob Malkoun, Jake Matthews, Carlos Ulberg, Casey O'Neill, Kai Kara-France, and Tai Tuivasa are amongst some of those we won't be seeing on Saturday night. That leaves us with a pretty lackluster looking event up until the end. Yair Rodriguez vs Josh Emmett is a really good fight and seeing one of those guys become interim champion will be fun. The main event is my most anticipated fight of the year, even including Jon Jones returning, so I'm all in with this card despite it only be ok top to bottom. Just to be clear, my picks will be in the bolded font, and the real results will be listed next to it in italics after the fight is official. Official bets will be at the bottom. Bets are now being officially tracked at BetMMA as well. Let's waste no time.
Zubaira Tukhugov defeats Elves Brener Result: Brener by decision (0-1)
We start the night off with the worst fight on the card, but at least we get it out of the way. Overall, I'm not the highest on Tukhogov. He has two problems that really turn me off from picking or betting on someone and those are that he doesn't have trustworthy cardio and he is low output on the feet. However, in this matchup, he really should be fine. He's really just the better fighter. He's the better striker, he's faster, and he's more powerful. He'll also be the better wrestler. Brener is stepping in on somewhat short notice and I just don't think this is really his spot. This is the toughest fight of his career by a significant margin. If he somehow survives early, he could have success late if he can force Tukhugov to gas, but I think this is just a case of two guys on vastly different levels. All of Tukhugov's flaws can be exploited by an equivalent level of fighter, but, from what I see, Brener just isn't that. This should be a good spot for Tukhugov.
Bets to consider: U2.5 rounds +102
Tukhugov isn't the most dynamic finisher in the world by any means. However, he has real finishes in the UFC against better fighters than Brener. He has the power to do get the knockout standing and he has the wrestling to get into dominant positions on the ground. I think this is a levels fight where Tukhugov's ability to finish this fight is greater than we would think if this was even a low level opponent who was truly UFC caliber. To get an under 2.5 at plus money in a fight that is this clearly one sided, I think that is something you have to consider. If I trusted Tukhugov a bit more, this would be a no brainer, but I may play it anyways.
Shane Young defeats Blake Bilder Result: Bilder by decision (0-2)
I don't think this is a fight that most people really have on their radars, but I'm keeping my eye on this one to see where Shane Young is really at in his career. I don't think Young was ever a guy who was on a trajectory to win a title, but he was certainly better than the guy he's been lately. Two fights ago he was quickly knocked out and his last fight he didn't look like himself at all. Historically, he's a fighter who throws solid volume, but he didn't do that last time so I'm not really sure what to expect. I do think he's the better fighter here as long as he fights like he normally does, but what he did last time out has me concerned. On the other side, we have Bilder and I'm not really sold on him as a UFC level fighter. I think his best qualities are that he's aggressive and has a solid submission game, but beyond that, I'm not sure how much he has to offer. His striking defense is pretty porous and his offensive striking is very raw. He's aggressive with it, but it's nothing high level at all. His submissions are ok, but I don't know that he has the wrestling to get into a position to use them against Young. If Young fights with his older, higher volume style, he should be fine. If he is the low output guy we saw last time, then this fight may get interesting as, despite the level that Bilder strikes at, he does bring the aggression to potentially win rounds. I have to go with Young here though as virtually all of the upside is on him.
Bets to consider: U2.5 rounds -108
On the money line side, it almost has to be Young...I guess. Betting Shane Young at -140 really isn't towards the top of my to-do list, but I am at least considering it. If we get the best version of Shane Young, he wins this fight without issue, but I just can't bank on that or really anything close to it right now. I think the under may be a safer way to go. If we do get that version of Young, he probably finishes Bilder. If we don't and Bilder is live, I think his best chance of winning is via submission. This is one I'm more on the fence about, but I have no issue with anyone playing this at all.
Loma Lookboonme defeats Elise Reed Result: Lookboonme by submission (1-2)
It's really no secret that I was going to pick Loma here. I pick her pretty much every time she fights, which is kind of strange, but here we are. I just like how Loma fights and against the level of competition she is typically matched up with, she's pretty reliable. Loma is a solid striker with good out put. She does good work in the clinch and she's shown an ability to get takedowns when presented to her. The downside in her game is her lack of high end athleticism and explosion. She doesn't have the hand speed to wow anyone or the power to finish fights standing. She isn't the strongest to force takedowns either. She's just a really solid fighter. Elise Reed is a better boxer, but I think she's limited to that. If this is a 15 minute range based boxing match, Reed has a chance. However, she's still low volume and she takes a lot of damage. Loma is going to be able to clinch her and should do good work there. The huge issue for Reed is her grappling. She doesn't stop takedowns well and her bottom game is nonexistent. If Loma gets a takedown, she could easily finish the fight. Reed gets passed and gives up dominant position very easily. If Loma gets on top, she'll likely end that round on top unless the referee has to stop the fight. I think Loma is the more well rounded fighter with all of the paths to a dominant victory if she wants it.
Bets to consider: Lookboonme by KO +390
This one is more of a dart throw than something I would be looking to play heavily, but it's worth a shot if you're looking to have something on every fight. Loma has shown at least decent ground and pound in the past and if she gets on top of Reed, she'll have a chance to land hard shots. Loma is going to force the clinch and once she does, she'll likely get one of the trips that she likes to use to work. Reed doesn't have a bottom game, so if Loma is throwing strikes, she has a very legitimate chance to finish this fight. It's not a supremely confident play, but just an interesting thing to maybe take a shot on.
Jack Jenkins defeats Don Shainis Result: Jenkins by decision (2-2)
This is the fight on the card that I have no idea how it came together. I really don't have a ton of interest in it either. Shainis is a base wrestler and he's not a bad one, but he's not a great one either. If he can't get takedowns, he's generally in a not great situation. I don't really expect him to get takedowns in this one and I wouldn't be surprised if Jenkins was able to get takedowns of his own. More likely is that he keeps it standing and Jenkins really takes advantage of him on the feet. Jenkins is just the better fighter and he probably finishes Shainis sometime over the back half of the fight. I don't feel like spending any more time on this one.
Betting Thoughts:
I don't think there's really a great way to play this fight. I guess if you're a believer in Shainis then that would be the way to go, but I don't see this fight that way. Everything on Jenkins is just too far gone for me to want to play it. His inside the distance is -160 and that just doesn't really entice me. The under is around -170 and I'm not really looking to jump into that either. This could end up being a levels fight like I mentioned earlier in the card, but Jenkins is far less proven than Tukhugov is, so I'm not quite as interested in it.
Jamie Mullarkey defeats Francisco Prado Result: Mullarkey by decision (3-2)
This is another odd fight. I generally like Jamie Mullarkey as he fights in a style that I see a lot of positives in. Mullarkey isn't an amazing striker from a technical standpoint, but he's very aggressive. He fights with great pace and volume that I kind of doubt Prado can hold up against. Prado is extremely inexperienced against a low level of competition. Prado's path to victory is probably an early knockout, but Mullarkey is largely pretty durable, especially early. What worries me is that Mullarkey just doesn't defend strikes at all. Prado could certainly knock him out, but I kind of don't think it's all that likely. On top of that, I think Mullarkey could probably just wrestle him if he really wanted to. I don't think that's what he'll do, but the path is there. I think Mullarkey is a better fighter maybe everywhere, so I have to assume this is his fight.
Bets to consider: Mullarkey ML -270
This is a strange spot. I don't typically look to play large favorites, but I think Mullarkey sort of justifies it. The one hang up is the fact that he's so hittable. Mullarkey's chin isn't uncracked, but he doesn't really get finished by the caliber of fighter that Prado currently is. I don't know that the early going of this fight looks -270 on the Mullarkey side as they both stand and bang it out, but I don't think Prado can keep up. Mullarkey should probably finish this fight sometime after the first round if he keeps the pressure on.
Kleydson Rodrigues defeats Shannon Ross Result: Rodrigues by KO (4-2)
This is another fight where I feel like the better fighter sort of has the other covered. Rodrigues isn't a perfect fighter by any means, but this should be a good spot for him. I think he is an overall more effective striker. He's a more diverse striker and is more dynamic as well. He has the power advantage as well as the volume advantage. On the feet, Ross may be a slightly more buttoned up boxer, but I don't think it gets him far in this matchup. The main reason for that is he doesn't have great striking defense and he isn't all that durable. He gets hurt pretty consistently and against someone like Rodrigues, that just isn't going to work. I think that the grappling in this fight is probably going to be a wash, but if I had to side with someone to come out on top there, I would lean to Rodrigues. I think he's able to hurt Ross pretty consistently and even if he doesn't, his volume should be enough to get him the win here.
Bets to consider: U2.5 rounds -110
While I like this spot for Kleydson, I can't look to play him at -330. I think the more interesting way to play it would be the under, but this one I don't feel as great about. Ross has gotten hurt a lot, but he also doesn't get finished a lot. I'm not sure. I'll probably regret passing on this after we see a Rodrigues KO in the first round, but there's just something that is telling me to hold off on this one.
Melsik Baghdasaryan defeats Josh Culibao Result: Culibao by submission(4-3)
I really don't have much of an opinion on this fight. Both guys have a lot of things in common. Neither is really much of a grappler. I think Culibao would have a slight edge there, but not enough for it to really determine the outcome, in my opinion. Another similarity is that both fighters don't have reliable cardio. I expect that to keep the pace of this fight a little slower. In what should be a narrow fight, I think I just prefer Melsik a little more. I think he may just be a tad cleaner in his striking and be a little more likely to finish. This fight is about as evenly matched in style and skill as it gets though. I really don't have a take because I am not really able to differentiate the two very clearly. I'll go with Melsik, but I don't feel good about it at all.
Bets to consider: FGTD -138
This fight currently sitting at -108/-108 makes perfect sense to me. I have no interest taking a side for obvious reasons. What is much more interesting is taking this one to go the distance. Neither of them have a problem with being finished or durability concerns. They do have cardio problems which can lead to being finished late, but because the other has the same issue, I expect the pace of this one to stay a little slow. I think this is a fine looking bet.
Tyson Pedro defeats Modestas Bukauskas Result: Bukauskas by decision (4-4)
I'm still holding out some hope that Tyson Pedro can reach the heights that so many had for him once upon a time, but at some point, I want to see him against some more legitimate competition. We get him against Bukauskas here, which I guess is a step up from Harry Hunsucker. Pedro is someone who I've had to adjust my expectations for. I don't know that he is the high end type of guy that many projected him to be, but rather just someone who is pretty solid. He's not amazing anywhere, but he's solidly above average everywhere. That really should be enough to beat Bukauskas. Modestas doesn't have reliable volume when he's striking and doesn't have the skill set to take the fight elsewhere. Pedro will be the better grappler and also presents more danger on the feet. Pedro is also low volume, so if he doesn't get a finish, the fight may look for competitive than some are giving it credit for. It's really the durability questions surrounding Bukauskas that has me firmly on the Pedro side.
Betting thoughts:
This just isn't the fight that I'm looking to lose money on. I can't take the shot on Bukauskas even though I don't think of Pedro as highly as I once did. The over 1.5 is -144 which makes some sense for guys who are low volume, but I do kind of think Pedro comes out with no respect for Modestas and finishes him early. I don't really feel like sweating the under 1.5 though. This is a fight that I would rather just watch than have to think about a bet as it's going on.
Jimmy Crute defeats Alonzo Menifield Result: majority draw (4-4-1)
I used to be extremely high on Jimmy Crute. I thought he was a title challenger type of fighter and it turns out he isn't quite there yet. With that said, he really should be able to beat Alonzo Menifield, but I don't feel good about it. I think Crute is better at most technical aspects of MMA. He's the more gifted striker. He's the better offensive wrestler. He has the better submission game as well. The massive problem for Crute is that he really doesn't defend strikes well and he hasn't been the most durable guy in the world recently. He got flatlined by Jamahal Hill and was almost out on his feet against Anthony Smith prior to that. If there's one thing Alonzo Menifield can do, it's hit people really hard. He's not an amazing striker, but he's got power. Against someone with the defense of Crute, I imagine he can land and if he lands, he can win. Menifield should be able to limit the grappling as well as his best MMA skill is his defensive grappling. He stops takedowns very well and can get up off the bottom. Jimmy Crute is more skilled, but Menifield is very live to find the knockout punch in this one.
Bets to consider: Menifield ML +150
Given how this fight projects to play out, I think Menifield has to be the side here. Menifield isn't going to allow takedowns. Crute generally doesn't shoot a ton of takedown attempts to begin with and Menifield has stuffed attempts from much better wrestlers. If we're going to see these two slug it out on the feet, Menifield has to be considered very live. Crute is the better offensive striker and it isn't that close. However, with how porous his defense is, I have to assume Menifield is going to land. For everything Menifield isn't, he is a big, strong, explosive guy. If he's landing clean shots on someone's chin, they're going to feel it. Given what we've seen from Crute's durability lately, I don't know that he stands up to that kind of power.
Parker Porter defeats Justin Tafa Result: Tafa by KO (4-5-1)
For this fight to be on the PPV portion of the card is equal parts sad and strange, but here we are. This is almost guaranteed to be a bizarre fight. I'm really not a Justin Tafa guy and that isn't going to start today. Tafa is a huge, powerful guy, but that's really about it. Seeing him miss weight at heavyweight in the recent past was really the last straw. It makes you wonder how much work he's really putting into this. Tafa could certainly find the knockout here though. He's going to be landing the heavier shots and could also win a decision based on those optics. Porter is going to bring a more volume heavy striking style. His power isn't there for a heavyweight, but he is going to land with frequency. Neither guy has any defense, which is worrisome for Porter as eating the bigger shots from Tafa won't be easy. However, Porter has the grappling upside here. He's not a great wrestler by any means, but I imagine he can get a takedown or two if he wants to. We don't know much about Tafa as a grappler, but what there is to see isn't very good. If Porter gets the fight down, it will likely stay there for the rest of the round. I don't trust Tafa to do anything beyond have good power, so I have to be on the Porter side here.
Bets to consider: Porter +108
I get that Tafa's power and Porter's lack of striking defense creates a very dangerous issue for him, but I really don't get Tafa being a favorite. You can really only bet Porter right now in my mind. Betting anyone at minus money isn't attractive, so I have to be on the Porter side in this one. However, I don't know that I'll play it because betting low level heavyweight MMA is about as risky as it gets.
Jack Della Maddalena defeats Randy Brown Result: Maddalena by submission (5-5-1)
This should be the first really good fight of the night. Jack is basically guaranteed to put on exciting fight as long as he has an opponent that is going to strike with him. Jack is a very good boxer and he does some great work in close range. He throws tremendous volume with really good power. He pushes a crazy pace for a guy throwing with the kind of power he has. His technical boxing is some of the best in the division and he throws to the body as good as anyone in MMA right now. I have some questions about Jack long term, but I don't know that they have too much impact on this fight. I don't think Jack is a great grappler. He doesn't really stop takedowns and his submission defense is a little raw as well. He also doesn't have the best striking defense in the world, which may come back to get him at some point. I like Randy Brown more than most and think he's being overlooked here. Brown's biggest problems are his consistency and durability. Brown just doesn't reliably perform his best, which is unfortunate. Brown also doesn't always take damage well and can be finished. Brown's striking is pretty good and he has good power. He's very tall and long for the division and he mostly uses it well. His defense is ok, but he relies a lot on that length. When guys can get in close, he is there to be hit, which Jack can do. If Jack closes the distance too much, I like Brown's ability in the clinch. I think Jack should be the favorite here by a decent amount, but Brown has a very real chance to win here. I like Jack to eventually work his way in and find the knockout. If Brown were a little more reliable to attempt takedowns, I would be very tempted by him.
Bets to consider: U2.5 rounds -158
I like Jack a lot, but he really shouldn't be -300 in this fight. Randy is going to make it closer than most people are giving him credit for, but how vulnerable he is on the inside and his overall durability concerns don't have me feeling particularly confident in him. I think Brown will look good until he doesn't and once it starts to go south for him, it probably snowballs pretty quickly. I think the under makes a lot more sense to pursue. That covers the scenarios where Jack picks up the knockout, but also the scenario where Brown latches onto a submission or finds a knockout of his own.
Josh Emmett defeats Yair Rodriguez Result: Rodriguez by submission (5-6-1)
This is a very interesting fight. We have a lot to consider and some rumors to add to it. In general, Emmett is a fighter who has given me problems as he has a very unique style. He throws with just ok volume. He's not low output, but he doesn't have a great pace either. Emmett mostly relies on his tremendous power when he's standing. He also has the ability to wrestle in this fight. Rodriguez doesn't grapple particularly well and I think Emmett could get him down if he wanted to. Rodriguez is extremely dynamic and explosive. He throws strikes that most other fighters aren't even capable of. He can find a knockout from virtually any position at any moment. The drawbacks with Yair are his defense and his cardio. He doesn't defend strikes well. He doesn't have a history of being finished necessarily, but with the power of Emmett, he can certainly be put out here. Yair is also very reliable to slow down in the second half of a fight. In a fight that projects to be low volume, that may be minimized a bit, but Emmett can still push some pace. Emmett's power suppresses volume very regularly, so I don't expect Yair to get ahead on numbers. That leaves Yair at a power disadvantage and a defensive disadvantage in a fight where every strike landed is going to be meaningful. He'll also slow down late. That had me siding with Emmett somewhat comfortably until we started getting rumors that Emmett may have an injury. I'm not sure what to do with that information, but I still have to go with my gut unless we get some more definitive information before the fight.
Bets to consider: U4.5 rounds +114
Where the injury rumors do effect my thinking is not playing Emmett. I was probably going to take the shot on him and I still may, but I'm not sure that I want to lose money while I watch Emmett get finished like TJ Dillashaw did a few months ago. Where I will play this fight though is the under 4.5 rounds. Yair's best route to victory is via finish as his cardio really isn't there to win a decision and we've seen Emmett finished before. Like I said, the Emmett finish is live because of his power and Yair's lacking defense. Finally, if Emmett really is hurt, maybe he ends up re-injuring himself and can't continue, so the under is where I'll be for this fight.
Alexander Volkanovski defeats Islam Makhachev Result: Makhachev by decision (5-7-1)
Look. I get it. Everything about this fight suggests it should probably be Islam, but I can't help it. Islam is significantly bigger and stronger. He's the much better grappler. He's a much better striker than people give him credit for. I completely understand all of it. However, I just kind of feel like Volk finds a way. I'm buying into the narrative that he's built different, but I'm only human. I think his speed and quickness is going to give Islam a look that he hasn't really seen before. I think Volk's pace and cardio can push Islam. The big key is going to be if he can make the fight take place at distance long enough to actually do damage. I think he can. I think Volk finds a way to do it.
Bets to consider: Volkanovski ML +360
Picks are one thing, but bets are another. Picking Volk really doesn't do any damage because the only thing at stake is my winning percentage. Putting money down on it is something else though. I'm not going to sit here and tell you that I'm super confident that Volk wins and you should bet the house on it. However, I do think Volk is the best fighter in the world right now. All of the other stuff aside, I can't open my app and see +360 next to Volk's name and not take a shot at it. It's going to be a small shot, but I'm taking it.
This is coming out very late. Thanks for reading, enjoy the card, and official bets are below.
Official Bets
Tukhugov/Brenner U2.5 rounds .5 units at -102 to win .49 units - .5 units
Baghdasaryan/Culibao FGTD 1 unit at -142 to win .7 units - 1 unit
Alonzo Menifield ML .5 units at +150 to win .75 units Push
Parker Porter ML .5 units at +108 to win .54 units - .5 units
Maddalena/Brown U2.5 units 1.5 units at -148 to win 1.01 units + 1.01 units
Rodriguez/Emmett U4.5 rounds .75 units at +112 to win .84 units + .84 units
Josh Emmett ML .25 units at +158 to win .4 units - .25 units
Alexander Volkanovski ML .25 units at +330 to win .83 units - .25 units
Net Gain/Loss
Event Total: - .65 units
Previous Year to Date Total: - 4.33 units
Updated Year to Date Total: - 4.98 units
UPDATE:
Weekly Record: 5 - 7 - 1
Previous Year to Date Record: 27 - 9 - 1
Updated Year to Date Record: 32 - 16 - 2
2022 Winning Percentage: 62.919%
2021 Winning Percentage: 60.000%
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