The bets are really spiraling and I'm taking the time to try and reevaluate where I'm going wrong. I don't necessarily think I'm making awful reads consistently because my picks are going ok for the most part. There seems to be a disconnect between my general take and breakdown of the fight versus what I actually play for that fight. I think I need to be more confident in the reads I'm making, especially for minus money plays. I'm so reluctant to play medium sized or better favorites and I think that is an area that I could look to be a bit more willing to jump in on. Anyways, This week is a solid lead up to a really good stretch in the UFC schedule. I'm not here to say this is the best Fight Night in the world, but it is definitely a step up compared to the last few Fight Nights, at least in my mind. There may be some decent plays to be had as well. Just to be clear, my picks will be in the bolded font, and the real results will be listed next to it in italics after the fight is official. Official bets will be at the bottom. Bets are now being officially tracked at BetMMA as well.
Ailin Perez defeats Hailey Cowan Result: cancelled
This fight should be fairly competitive, but I'm not sure if that's enough to make it a good fight or not. In a vacuum, I think Cowan is probably the better fighter. She's clearly a better striker and she should have the speed advantage as well. She's not a poor grappler by any means, but I wouldn't say it's necessarily a strength either. Perez isn't a significantly better fighter, but I think the style dynamics allow for the potential for her to dominate this fight. Perez is fairly physical for the weight class and I think she could have success in the clinch here. Perez is also aggressive and should come out looking to close the distance, which should be half the battle. What has me leaning her way though is how poor we've seen Cowan's grappling to be in the past. When she gets taken down, she gets stuck on her back pretty consistently. She either just gets stuck on the ground or she gives her back and then gets controlled from an even worse off position. I kind of think Perez should be able to get takedowns here and if she does, she likely controls the rest of the round. Cowan's defensive grappling needs to improve or she's going to have a hard time against any legitimate UFC competition. I think I lean slightly towards Perez, but I don't feel good about it. Perez isn't spectacular and if she can't get takedowns, she'll be behind on the feet, but her defensive grappling is too worrisome for me to pick her here.
Bets to consider: Perez ML +106
For some reason, Fanduel doesn't have the props listed for any fight not on the main card yet, so I'll have to come back and edit those in as necessary. As of now, I think the only way to play the fight would be the Perez side. I really can't justify playing Cowan at minus money. She would win a striking battle, but I can't trust her grappling at all. As things currently stand, I really don't want to play this fight though. I think this fight being lined as competitive is probably correct and don't really see any need to play the money line unless either side takes a lot of money over the next couple of days.
Nurullo Aliev defeats Rafael Alves Result: Aliev by decision (1-0)
Rafael Alves is just a tough fighter to pick. His paths to victory are always so limited that it just scares me off most of the time. Alves is largely a round one or bust type of guy and this matchup really doesn't play into his strengths much. I do think Alves is the better striker in this one and he'll clearly be the faster fighter as well. He's probably the overall better athlete, but that's about it. Alves doesn't fight with consistent output, mostly because his cardio doesn't allow him to. After the first round, he's very reliable to slow down and eventually gas completely. Aliev isn't a future champion in my estimation, but he's solid enough to get UFC wins. I don't trust his striking much, especially defensively. He is aggressive though that may be enough late once Alves slows down. Aliev is going to wrestle though and I don't think Alves has the takedown defense to stop him, even while fresh. I think we likely see Aliev shoot for a takedown, Alves tries to pull guard and jump on a guillotine only for Aliev to slip out and then ride out the rest of the round on top. Aliev is probably a good enough wrestler to limit Alves explosiveness early until he wears down and then just grind him out late. I think Aliev via late finish or decision is the most likely scenario.
Bets to consider: Aliev ML -188
I feel like some people may be tempted by Alves at plus money and I do get it to a degree. However, unless he lands the big shot early, I'm not really sure where he wins that fight. He doesn't have the gas to win a decision and I don't think he's going to actually pull off a guillotine in this one. Aliev's striking defense isn't good and it wouldn't completely surprise me if he got knocked out, but I don't really place those odds particularly high. Aliev most likely grinds him out. I'm not sure if -190 is really the place to jump in, but if there were a bit of movement towards Alves, I may be interested to make a play.
Joe Solecki defeats Carl Deaton Result: Solecki by submission (2-0)
Carl Deaton is stepping in on short to take on Joe Solecki and I don't think it's a great matchup for him. Solecki is a really good grappler, especially when the fight is already down. He's a very slick and advanced jiu-jitsu practitioner that really should be able to latch onto a submission once the fight is grounded. The issue for him in that regard has been the wrestling. He's not a fantastic wrestler and I suspect that will hold him back against some higher level competition. His striking is also very raw. He's so low volume that it limits whatever success he could have. It seems like he could have some power if he let it go, but he's so tentative and opts to just set up his takedowns instead. Unfortunately for Deaton, his defensive grappling just hasn't been strong enough. I think he's pretty likely to go down and once Solecki is on top, he'll be in trouble. If he can somehow keep the fight upright, he has a very real chance. Solecki won't win a 15 minute kickboxing match against many guys, so it's not like Deaton doesn't have a chance, but I don't think it's a great one. Solecki probably takes him down and submits him, but he could also just ride it out on top.
Bets to consider: Deaton ML +410
You really can only bet Deaton here. Again, I'll have to wait until the props come out for me to find a real play for this fight, but Deaton is only side. Betting Solecki at almost -600 is really asking for trouble. His path to victory is pretty narrow because his striking is so under developed. If Deaton managed to keep it standing, he would look like a solid sized favorite. As of now, this is a pretty safe pass spot.
Charles Johnson defeats Ode Osbourne Result: Osbourne by decision (2-1)
The dynamic surrounding this fight is a bit strange. There's a lot of opinions on this fight and I'm on the side that thinks Johnson should win this fight at a very high clip. Both are strikers, so I don't expect any grappling to have an effect on the outcome. The way I see this fight playing out hinges a lot on Ode's cardio. Johnson is going to come out and fight at a really nice pace for the full 15 minutes. That puts Ode in a position where he's forced to do one of two things. He's either going to try and match Johnson's pace, in which case the fight looks competitive up until Ode gasses out and Johnson pulls away or he will fight at his own pace in order to maintain his cardio, which will see him just fall behind on the numbers. While Ode has the reach and he has the power to find a knockout, I really don't expect that to happen here. Johnson is pretty durable and he usually doesn't get hit too badly. I don't trust Ode's defense either, so Johnson shouldn't have any problems landing his strikes. I expect Johnson to win this fight at a pretty high rate.
Bets to consider: Johnson ML -168
This line was a bit better before, but I still think it's playable at this stage. I'm not really buying into Ode finding the knockout punch. He's a lot faster and more explosive than the guys Johnson has fought in his brief UFC run, but I think his style is pretty well equipped to beat fighters like Osbourne. Johnson isn't necessarily the best fighter in the world or anything, but when his opponent has a clear weakness, he's well rounded enough to exploit it more often than not. I think Johnson pushes the pace and either runs away on strike totals or paces Ode and gasses him out.
Victor Martinez defeats Jordan Leavitt Result: Leavitt by KO (2-2)
People seem to be pretty split on this fight, but I'll be on the Martinez side here. I know I'm coming off of picking Leavitt against Paddy Pimblett, but I think that has more to do with my opinion of Paddy than Leavitt. I like Leavitt for what he is, but he has a lot of holes. His BJJ game is pretty slick, but beyond that, he is just a step behind. He's not a great wrestler, so I don't think takedowns are a foregone conclusion here. His range striking is hard to watch most of the time. He has virtually 0 power and physicality. Now, Martinez isn't some sort of world beater or anything, but he should be able to compete here. The thing with Martinez is that he hasn't really stopped takedown attempts very well. While Leavitt will attempt them, I don't think he's a significantly better wrestler than anyone Martinez has already faced. He won't have any kind of physicality advantage in the clinch either. Even if Martinez goes down, I don't really think Leavitt will have success in controlling him. Martinez isn't a poor grappler by any means, even though I don't think his wrestling is anything special. I'm not convinced his striking is anything out of the ordinary either, but he's going to be noticeably better than Leavitt. I think Martinez should be ok here.
Bets to consider: Martinez ML -108
I think, with the style dynamics of this fight, Martinez needs to be a smallish favorite. I'm not saying to bet the house on Martinez as I'm not that confident, but I think too many things are in his favor for him to only be at -110/-110. If this is mostly striking, he's going to look like Anderson Silva compared to Leavitt. While Leavitt could certainly have some grappling success, I don't think he holds Martinez down and I don't think he has the gas tank to shoot 3-5 takedowns every round. If Leavitt doesn't get an early submission, I think he ends up falling behind.
Jasmine Jasudavicius defeats Gabriella Fernandes Result: Jasudavicius by decision (3-2)
This is another weird fight and it isn't all that dissimilar from previous one. The same dynamic is at play to a degree, but there's some pretty key differences. Fernandes is the striker and she'll be making her UFC debut here. From what I can tell, her striking does look to be legitimate, albeit against some not so great competition. The big red flag is that her ground game really isn't developed at all. Once she hits the floor, she just closes her guard and tries to limit damage the best she can. If Jasudavicius gets a takedown, she'll finish the round on top. Now, Jasmine isn't the greatest wrestler ever, but she does attempt takedowns and I imagine she realizes the advantage she will have there. On the feet, I do believe Fernandes will be ahead, but I don't think the gap is as wide. Jasmine isn't a bad striker, she's just not a good one either. She doesn't always have great output and she takes more damage than you would like. I just think she's likely to get some takedowns here and if she does, Fernandes will likely just lay on her back until the round comes to a close. If Fernandes can stuff the shots, she should be fine at space, but even a couple of takedowns could be the fight unless she's developed her get up game.
Bets to consider: Jasudavicius ML +110
At this number, I feel ok about playing Jasmine. Because Fernandes can't get up off of her back, it really only takes 2 takedowns to swing the fight in her favor. On top of that, Jasudavicius has the experience factor and a higher level of competition. I don't think it is out of the question that Jasmine could at least compete on the feet, especially late if Fernandes starts to slow down. I wouldn't go heavy here, but I think a small play on Jasmine is fine.
Trevor Peek defeats Erik Gonzalez Result: Peek by KO (4-2)
This fight is going to be a bit of a mess. I can't say that I'm too high on either at this stage of their careers, but the matchup should at least be entertaining to watch. I think both guys are kind of evenly matched for the most part. If I had to guess, we probably see both guys trading and banging it out on the feet. I think I prefer Peek in a fight like that, at least early on. Peek is more aggressive and should have more power, so that has me leaning his way. I don't really trust his cardio though, so as the fight progresses, Gonzalez should become more live. My concern for Gonzalez is that I don't really trust his durability at the UFC level. He doesn't have a long history of getting knocked out or anything, but he was folded badly by Jim Miller and it's not like Miller is Michael Chandler or something. Peek has at least that much power, so I do kind of think Peek is able to knock him out. Gonzalez will be able to land early though so he has a legitimate shot here.
Bets to consider: Gonzalez ML +176
This line doesn't make a whole lot of sense to me. Believe me, I don't really want to lose money on Erik Gonzalez either, but this one is starting to get a bit out there. I don't really think Peek is a -210 fighter out of principle. He's just not that caliber of fighter and his cardio doesn't even hold up well. On top of that, the way this fight projects to play out doesn't really call for someone to be a big favorite. If both guys are just standing and trading, I agree I prefer Peek, but not significantly. If they're just planting their feet and throwing bombs, I would much rather be holding the +200 ticket, but that's just me. If this keeps sliding, I'll almost have to play it, but I really don't want to.
Mike Malott defeats Yohan Lainesse Result: Malott by submission (5-2)
This is a fight that I'm looking forward to because I just want to see more of Malott. From what we can tell, Malott is very talented, but we just haven't seen nearly enough of him to judge the depth of his game. He is a solid enough striker who throws with good volume and power. He is a competent grappler and I kind of think he could dominate there in this fight if he wanted to. It's a lot of the other things that we don't know about with Malott. His cardio, his durability, and just how high level his skills are remain unanswered. I'm not so sure his striking defense is that good either. Lainesse is sort of facing a similar problem to what I talked about with Ode Osbourne before. Either Lainesse is going to match Malott's pace, in which case he'll gas out after a round and lose badly down the stretch or he's going to do what he did last time and try to preserve his cardio. If he does that, he'll just get out worked and lose anyways. His best shot here is to go all out in the first. He has real power and Malott's suspect striking defense makes a knockout at least possible for him. However, after a round, things start to slide dramatically in Malott's favor unless his cardio collapses too.
Bets to consider: Malott ITD -140
I'm not one to bet these juiced props, but it's a decent enough way to shave the price down. If Malott wins, it's hard to imagine it not being inside the distance. His aggression makes a first round finish pretty real and Lainesse's cardio makes it hard to imagine him making it to a decision. My instinct is to say knockout, which is +200, but I really believe Malott could out grapple and submit Lainesse quite easily if he decided to. It's not a great number, so passing is probably the right option. I'm not really tempted by the Lainesse side even at the bigger plus number just because he is pretty limited to winning within the first 5 minutes.
Tatiana Suarez defeats Montana De La Rosa Result: Suarez by submission (6-2)
This fight really just comes down to what version of Tatiana Suarez we see. If this is even 80% of the old her, she just steamrolls her way to a win. There's just really no way to know. She's been gone for so long with so many different injuries. We don't know how healthy she is and even if she is close to 100%, she hasn't fought in close to 4 years. You can debate if ring rust is real all you want, but at that length of time, there's going to be something. De La Rosa isn't an awful fighter by any means and she has some solid performances, but if we're getting a top notch Suarez, she won't stand much of a chance. She's a moderately well rounded fighter, albeit a lower level one. De La Rosa could certainly win if Suarez is just a shell of her former self, but there's really no way to predict that. I have to assume Tatiana still has it in her to win this level of fight.
Bets to consider: Suarez round 3 or dec -130
Playing this fight is really difficult. Even with everything that's happened, Suarez is still juiced. I'm not losing money playing De La Rosa either. One interesting way to go is round 3 or decision for Suarez. I do expect her to start a bit slow and ease into things. De La Rosa isn't going to push a pace either or force the action. On top of that De La Rosa is at least a competent grappler. She doesn't really have a history of being finished or getting battered on the ground. I do kind of think this fight extends a bit and with Tatiana sitting around -800, getting her to win in round 3 or on the scorecards seems at least mildly interesting.
Don'Tale Mayes defeats Augusto Sakai Result: Sakai by decision (6-3)
Process wise, I have to go Mayes, but I really don't feel good about it at all. For me, I just don't really buy what Sakai is selling. For a heavyweight, he's a moderately technical striker with decent volume, but that's really about it. I don't trust his cardio and he doesn't really have much power. He also just seems to be trending in the wrong direction with some really concerning performances in his last few fights. The major hole is his grappling though. Sakai's grappling has looked suspect at best and could be exposed by almost anyone in the division if they really tried. I'm not here to tell you that Mayes is going to dominate, but I think there's a least a chance he could. Mayes isn't a grappler, but when we saw him do it, he looked decent. That is honestly enough to handle Sakai if he wanted to. He's more likely to stand and strike on the feet and while I guess I prefer Sakai there, it's not by much. Sakai is probably more technical with a more volume, but Mayes is much larger and has the power. I think he may be a bit quicker as well. I can't ever feel good about picking Mayes, but I almost feel like I have to.
Bets to consider: Mayes ML -102
I don't know if I can bring myself to bet Mayes after what he did to me last time, but if I could, this would be the spot. The overall dynamic has me at least considering it. I do prefer Sakai slightly standing, but it's not something I feel good about. Add to it the potential for Mayes to control Sakai in the grappling and I think he has to be a small favorite. I just don't really see how a fight that should be a close, competitive fight striking where one side has the potential, albeit small, to dominate in the grappling and is lined essentially -110/-110. That just doesn't make a ton of sense to me, but I still don't know that I can lose money on Mayes again and look myself in the mirror, especially with how cold I've been lately.
Andre Muniz defeats Brendan Allen Result: Allen by submission (6-4)
I like Andre Muniz, but picking him gives me a bit of anxiety. We just don't really see many specialists like this anymore in MMA, especially at the level that he's reached. His wrestling is fine, but really nothing special. However, his BJJ game is really good and I kind of think that is enough to get the win over Allen in this one. Allen's grappling hasn't been great over his career and he gets taken down far too easily. Surviving takedowns from Jacob Malkoun and Kristof Jotko is very different than surviving on bottom against Muniz. I think Muniz either just controls him or submits him once Allen tries to scramble out. I have two concerns for Muniz in this fight. The first is that he gets stuck on the outside. At some point, someone is going to force Muniz to stand and strike. I don't think that goes well for him, but I also don't think Allen is that guy. If he did somehow, Allen could surely outstrike him from the outside. The bigger concern for this matchup is Muniz's cardio though. I feel comfortable saying Allen has the better gas tank and if he survives early, I do wonder what the back half of this fight would look like. It's not enough for me to pick Allen, but I will be watching this one closely.
Bets to consider: Fight starts round 3 +130
From a money line perspective, I think you could only go with Allen here. I don't think Muniz completely washes Allen on the mat. Allen is an ok grappler and I think he would at least be able to defend himself on the mat. Muniz creeping towards -250 really feels more like a ceiling than a playable number to me. If his cardio doesn't hold up or if he gets stuck at range, he won't look anywhere close to that. At the same time, I'm not all that tempted on Allen just because he has been so easy to takedown even for fighters who aren't tremendous wrestlers. I do think this fight extends though and getting plus money next to starts round 3 is something I'm taking a look at.
Nikita Krylov defeats Ryan Spann Result: cancelled
I'm not sure how good this fight will actually be, but it should be entertaining enough as a main event. In short, I think Krylov is more skilled in virtually every aspect of MMA. I think he's a more technical striker with a wider array of techniques available to him. I think he's a better wrestler and a better overall grappler as well. I think he has better defense and better cardio. The only advantages I think Spann really has are his athleticism and power. Spann is the more explosive guy and more dangerous because of it. The thing that's holding me up is that Krylov just hasn't been reliable in the past. He finds ways to give his opponents a chance to win. Krylov will have to survive early in this one, while Spann is dangerous. Spann only has about a round and a half of cardio, so after the 5 minute mark, Spann's chances will start to fade, but I think he is live early. I think Krylov getting knocked out or diving into a guillotine are much more live outcomes than they probably should be. I still have to go with Krylov, but I'm anxious about it.
Bets to consider: Krylov rounds 1, 2, or 3 -105
I just can't pull the trigger on Krylov money line. In reality, the skill gap is going to be noticeable. Krylov is better everywhere. He just has a tendency to put himself in the worst possible position. If anything, Spann is dangerous and it only takes one. Whether it's a huge right hand that puts him out or he's able to latch onto a guillotine, Spann can do that. He's a big, strong, explosive athlete, who is very dangerous early in fights. In order to shave down some of that price, going with Krylov ITD at -130 or within the first 3 rounds at -105 seems like a better look. Given Spann's cardio, I don't see how this fight lasts more than 2-ish rounds regardless. Either someone gets finished early or Spann gasses and gets finished anyways.
Saturday wasn't a great morning at work, so this is later than it should be. Thanks for reading, have a good one, and enjoy the card. Official bets are below.
Official Bets
Charles Johnson ML 1.5 units at -168 to win .89 units
Victor Martinez ML 1 unit at +102 to win 1.02 units
Jasmine Jasudavicius ML .75 units at -108 to win .69 units
Tatiana Suarez round 3 or decision .5 units at -130 to win .38 units
Muniz/Allen fight starts round 3 .75 units at +118 to win .88 units
Nikita Krylov rounds 1, 2, or 3 .5 units -105 to win .48 units
Net Gain/Loss
Event Total: - 1.42 units
Previous Year to Date Total: - 7.46 units
Updated Year to Date Total: - 8.88 units
UPDATE:
Weekly Record: 6 - 4
Previous Year to Date Record: 40 - 19 - 2
Updated Year to Date Record: 46 - 23 - 2
2022 Winning Percentage: 62.919%
2021 Winning Percentage: 60.000%
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