Alright guys, this is the week we get back on track. This is a card with a lot of very known fighters with reliable styles that we've seen against highish level competition multiple times. There's significantly less projection required on this card than we get on a typical Fight Night these days and even all of the 2023 PPVs. This has to be the week that we get back to some green numbers. This is the best card of the year so far and as we inch closer, I'm becoming more and more excited. I'm trying to remain calm because getting excited too far out during a Jon Jones fight week isn't advisable, but here I am. This has been built up for so long that I'm almost over all of the hype. I'm just ready to see it. This card starts getting good almost right away and keeps it up for a vast majority of the run time. I'm excited and I want to have a good week betting coming up. Just to be clear, my picks will be in the bolded font, and the real results will be listed next to it in italics after the fight is official. Official bets will be at the bottom. Bets are now being officially tracked at BetMMA as well.
Loik Radzhabov defeats Esteban Ribovics Result: Radzhabov by decision (1-0)
The first fight of the night is one that sort of feels like a PPV opener. We're getting Ribovics coming off of the Contender Series and I'm not really sure what to make of him. He seems like a fighter who is talented enough to compete in the UFC, but he definitely lacks in the refined skills department. Right now, he's just an athletic guy who is game to fight. He has some power and he seems pretty fast and explosive. He's also pretty aggressive, so he has that going for him as well. What concerns me for him in this fight specifically is that he hasn't always stopped takedowns well and I don't think he's dangerous enough off of his back to cause any issues. I'm not sure he has the get up game for this matchup either. Loik is coming over from the PFL after a quick appearance in Eagle FC and I do like this fight for him. He really should be able to hit takedowns here and ride out rounds on top without too much resistance. Loik's striking isn't anything special, but it wouldn't surprise me to see him at least compete there. His defense on the feet is the biggest red flag in this one though as Ribovics does have power, so you can't rule out a knockout entirely. Loik has never had the best gas tank in the world and stepping in on short notice isn't going to help that here. If he gets stuck on the feet, things could get interesting down the stretch. However, I imagine that he is able to control the pace of this fight and get long stretches of top control, so that may not even come into play. I have to go with Loik in this spot.
Bets to consider: O2.5 rounds +108
If I had to pick a side, I think I would be on the Loik side. His wrestling path seems pretty clear and like the obvious outcome a majority of the time. However, I struggle to put money down on someone with known cardio problems at -270. I can't really be on Ribovics though as his strength of schedule is so low that it's hard to project just what level he's on. It wouldn't shock me to see him get the knockout here, but as the minutes go in this fight, he's going to get taken down. I think the odds we see Ribovics pick up the knockout are probably equally likely to the odds that he gets taken down once and immediately finished. I don't have a good feel on the over either. with Loik likely to be shooting takedowns, my instinct is to say the over. However, it's very possible that Loik could just carve right through his guard and finish him with minutes. I don't trust the under though either. Just a pass spot I think.
Farid Basharat defeats Da'Mon Blackshear Result: Basharat by decision (2-0)
Next up we have the UFC debut for Farid Basharat, who is getting some buzz due to the success of his brother. I'm not so sure Farid is as good as Javid, but I do like him in this fight. He is going to be the better striker on multiple fronts. He's more technical and he brings the volume edge. I think his grappling is ok, especially offensively, but defensively I still have some questions. I don't think Farid is spectacular anywhere, but he's at least pretty solid everywhere. I think there is at least a chance that Basharat ends up being better everywhere. I don't think Blackshear is a bad fighter necessarily, but his style is a bit strange. Blackshear is a solid grappler, but he doesn't really shoot as many takedown attempts as you would think. He's not a bad striker either, but he can sometimes fall into a trap where he doesn't throw a lot. Blackshear is one of those fighters who is well rounded, but just at a lower level. I just think Basharat may have him covered.
Bets to consider: Basharat round 3 or dec -145
This is a line where I'm sort of not sure how to go about it. On one hand, I don't really think Basharat has the skill set to look -500 in this fight consistently. I do generally think Blackshear makes it more competitive than that, but I still don't think he actually wins with any degree of consistency. I think I would rather look to Basharat decision type props. Basharat by decision is at -105 right now and I think you could play that as well. I think I'll take a shot on round 3 or decision at -145 just to cover a late, volume based finish.
Tabatha Ricci defeats Jessica Penne Result: Ricci by submission (3-0)
This is probably the least interesting fight on the card in my opinion. This fight is being rebooked after it fell apart last time. There's a clear path here for Penne, but I do generally think this fight favors Ricci. Her striking isn't great though. She's pretty raw and on the low volume side. Ricci is a pretty decent wrestler though and she goes to it consistently. Penne doesn't stop takedowns well, so I imagine this fight hits the ground early and somewhat often. On top of not having great takedown defense, Penne is pretty reliable to fight off of her back. She doesn't look to work up much and instead looks for submissions from guard. She is competent off of her back, but not at the level that I think she can submit Ricci from guard. If the fight is standing, I do prefer Penne. I think she is a better striker, but she's also low volume. She has a significant reach advantage here, so that will help her at space, but I think Ricci closes that distance and is able to control long stretches of this fight from top position.
Bets to consider: Ricci by decision -125
While I think this is a good spot for Ricci, I can't bet her at over -300. I don't think someone who relies on top control with little to no chance of finishing this fight can be favored that heavily. Much like the last fight, I think Penne may have this fight looking more competitive than the line suggests, but at the same time, I don't think she's winning this fight at any significant rate. Having poor takedown defense and not being willing or able to work back to your feet is not a good combination against Ricci. Maybe if Penne was more active in her striking or possessed more finishing ability of her own, I would be more willing to take the shot, but she doesn't. I think Ricci by decision is a good way to cut down the price.
Cameron Saaiman defeats Mana Martinez Result: Saaiman by decision (4-0)
This is a fight that I'm actually interested to see play out. I do think Saaiman wins more often than not, but I expect this fight to be more competitive than a lot of people are giving it credit for. At least in the early going, I think these guys are fairly even. Saaiman is a fine striker, but I don't think he's anything too far out of the oridinary. He's really not overwhelming in any aspect. He's fine from a technical standpoint, a power standpoint, and a volume standpoint, but doesn't stand out in any of them. He's a competent enough grappler as well, although he really doesn't attempt takedowns ever. Martinez should be able to compete here. His worst performances have come when he's been grappled aggressively and Saaiman has never shown that game plan. On the feet, Martinez probably has the better power and given Saaiman's lack of defense, I think a knockout is very much in play for him. The big thing for Mana is that he just doesn't have the best cardio. That has caused him to have some inconsistent performances. When he fights at pace, he doesn't hold up and gets finished. When he tries to conserve energy, he just falls behind. I think that and the grappling discrepancy makes Saaiman a favorite, but not a huge one.
Bets to consider: Martinez ML +225
I just don't think the dynamic surrounding this fight allows Saaiman to be this heavy of a favorite. For the first round and a half to 2 rounds, I think they're essentially even. Saaiman could look like a huge favorite if he decides to pursue some grappling more aggressively, but we've just never seen him do it. I know he's undefeated, but he's dropped rounds to guys who I don't really rate at all in his last couple. Martinez isn't amazing by any means, but he's solid and he's fought much tougher competition recently. With his power and Saaiman's striking defense, I think the chances of him finding a knockout or at least hurting Saaiman badly are very real. The cardio and grappling are tough to get over, but I think playing Martinez at this number or anything better than +200 is probably the route.
Ian Garry defeats Song Kenan Result: Garry by KO (5-0)
I like Ian Garry as much as the next guy, at least in the cage. He's a bit cringey for my taste personality wise, but that's whatever. He's being set up here to win on a big stage to put it frankly. He really shouldn't have any problems. He's the better striker here and a significantly better grappler. He just has to avoid being knocked out. Kenan isn't really anything Garry hasn't seen before. He's just a mildly aggressive guy with power. I think Garry is going to be able to keep this on the outside and then punish Kenan on the counters whenever he tries to force some action. If for some reason Garry was having problems on the feet, I'm pretty sure he could wipe Kenan out on the ground if he wanted to. That's not really his style, but it's there if he needs it.
Bets to consider: O1.5 rounds -104
This one may look risky at points, but I think over 1.5 is the spot. Garry really isn't the kind of guy who's going to come out and push a pace. He's pretty willing to fight however his opponent wants to. If Kenan comes out and gets aggressive, he probably gets battered on the counters pretty quickly and knocked out. I'm not confident in Kenan's durability either. However, if Kenan doesn't force it, Garry really isn't going to pursue a finish. He's perfectly happy to just touch him up from the outside. I think I'll be taking a small shot on the over here.
Marc-Andre Barriault defeats Julian Marquez Result: Barriault by KO (6-0)
This is pretty much guaranteed to be a fun one. I think Barriault has more ways to win consistently, so I'll be on his side in this one. I think he's probably just better in most aspects. He's the better technical striker both offensively and defensively in this fight. He has the better pacing, better volume, and better cardio as well. It wouldn't even shock me to find out that he was the better overall grappler. That's not to say Marquez is bad, but I think he's just a step behind here. His best bet in this one is to create some chaos and hope he lands the knockout blow. Marquez normally does just that, but his striking defense leaves a lot to be desired. I don't think that goes well against a striker like MAB. I think he gets touched early and often. The one edge Marquez does have is his submission game, but he's neve successfully landed a takedown in the UFC, so he's unlikely to end up on top. Marquez could find the knockout if they start exchanging in the pocket, but beyond that, I think he's just going to be behind the 8 ball in this one.
Bets to consider: Barriault ML -154
I'm not sure how what I just explained results in MAB being only -154. I get Marquez is going to create chaos, but MAB doesn't really have a durability problem. The only times we've seen MAB really struggle is against grappling heavy styles, and like I said before, Marquez has never landed a takedown in the UFC. If this fight stays standing, Barriault really has every advantage, especially defensively. Marquez takes way too much damage and MAB should land almost everything he throws. I think he should be out closer to -200 if you ask me.
Viviane Araujo defeats Amanda Ribas Result: Ribas by decision (6-1)
I'm a fan of Vivi and to pick against her again would just be sacrilegious. This is kind of an interesting fight in that I do think these two are somewhat even in a lot of ways, but I sort of give Vivi the edge in a few key spots. The more and more that I think about this fight, the stronger I feel that Vivi should probably be a small-ish favorite. I do like a lot of what Ribas does, but I don't think this is the spot. She's a fine striker and she may even be better if this turns out to be a 15 minute range kickboxing match. However, I don't think that's particularly likely. When they're in close spaces, I think Araujo is better. She has a clear power advantage. I also don't know that Ribas is all that sound defensively, so if Vivi starts landing clean, Amanda may be in a bit of trouble. I think the physicality of Vivi is going to be a big factor. Ribas is a decent grappler, but she's not really much of a wrestler. Vivi stops takedowns very well, so I don't expect her to be on bottom much. Conversely, I do think Vivi can land her own takedowns and we haven't really seen Ribas be willing or able to get back to her feet once taken down. While I think Ribas can win on the outside if it turns into a volume based striking match, I don't know how she wins if the fight is anything else. Vivi has had a cardio issue in the past, but she seems to have improved on that, if not ironed it out entirely. I like Vivi to mix in some takedowns and come away with a hard fought win.
Bets to consider: Araujo ML -102
I think what I just laid out suggests that Vivi should be a small favorite. In addition to the dynamic that I just described, I think a lot of the finishing potential is on the Vivi side. Ribas doesn't have the power to get a knockout on the feet and I don't know that she really pours on the volume enough to get a late finish from accumulated damage. I don't expect her to get on top in the grappling and Vivi is too good to get submitted from guard. Vivi has the power to get a knockout on the feet and while I don't expect her to submit Amanda, she will likely be in the dominant position on the ground. I think the physicality of Vivi is going to be a real problem though. Her strength in the clinch and power in the pocket are going to separate her in my opinion. I'll probably be on Vivi in this one.
Dricus Du Plessis defeats Derek Brunson Result: Du Plessis by KO (7-1)
This is my brother's favorite fight on the card (besides the main) and I am very excited to watch this one as well. In short, I think this probably looks very similar to Brunson vs Cannonier. I think Brunson is probably winning this fight up until the moment that he loses. I just don't really trust his durability anymore. He gets stung a little too easily for me these days even in fights that he's otherwise dominating. With that said, this is the fight that Brunson has won time and time again in his latest run. I think Brunson can probably take Dricus down and I have to assume he's better on top. On the feet, Brunson has power and Dricus doesn't defend strikes at all, so you can't rule out a knockout either. I don't think either guy has great gas, but if both are sucking wind, I assume Brunson gets takedowns there. The reason I do ultimately side with Dricus is his power. When Brunson gets hurt, the fight really snowballs on him quickly. He doesn't take damage well and once he gets clipped, it's really just a matter of time. Dricus has massive power and Brunson doesn't have great striking defense either. Unless Brunson can get like 10+ minutes of top time, I think Dricus connects and probably knocks him out. If they do get tired late, Dricus has at least shown an ability to push hard through being gassed. I think Brunson can very well win this fight, but at his age, I'm not sure I trust him to make it to a decision often enough.
Bets to consider: Du Plessis by KO +125, Brunson ML +186
To me, there's two ways you can go with this one. If you're on the Dricus side, I think you have to play him by knockout. If Dricus is landing enough to win a decision, then I think Brunson probably goes down. The other side is that I think this line is probably wide. Dricus has a large amount of finishing potential in this fight, but so does Brunson. Derek has real power and Dricus is there to be hit. He could easily find a knockout of his own. There's also the very real possibility that Brunson just out classed Dricus on the ground. I don't know that he can instantly pass to mount and submit him, but I think there is a very real chance that Brunson is just a much better wrestler and can get takedowns whenever he wants. I'm not sure which way I'll go, but I think playing one of those has to be a play.
Cody Garbrandt defeats Trevin Jones Result: Garbrandt by decision (8-1)
I mean, Cody Garbrandt can't lose to Trevin Jones, can he? This is a huge step down in competition for him and he really needs it. Cody has just looked lost recently and it's kind of hard to watch. He turned in what is probably the greatest individual performance that I ever saw in real time against Cruz, but he just hasn't been the same since. With that said, he's still losing to fairly high level competition. A loss in a fight like this would be very worrisome. Cody should just be the better fighter here. He's a better striker and a better grappler. The problem for Cody is that he just doesn't fight the way he should. It's almost like he lacks confidence in his skills and resorts to just trading in the pocket and hoping for the best. If he really went for the path of least resistance, he could probably grapple Jones, but I kind of doubt he tries. On the feet, Cody should be faster and should be better. Cody is on the low volume side though, which doesn't help him. He doesn't do much until he creates an exchange in the pocket and his chin just hasn't held up to that very often recently. Jones is the kind of guy who can win a fight like that. Jones also doesn't throw a ton of strikes, but he's got the power to. This is kind of set up to be one of those fights where nothing happens until someone goes out cold. I have to assume this significant step down gets Cody back on track, but I can't be too confident at this point.
Bets to consider: O1.5 rounds -128
This kind of just feels like a fight that I should stay away from, but if you must, I guess the over may be the way to take a stab. I'm not sure that I can actually pull the trigger because I don't trust the durability of either guy though. The thing is, I don't really expect a lot to happen in this fight. We'll probably see pretty low strike totals and a slow pace in general. Unless someone just gets flattened, it should go over, but the odds of someone get flattened actually seem high, just a matter of when.
Bo Nickal defeats Jamie Pickett Result: Nickal by submission (9-1)
What do you want me to say? This fight is being put together in order to make Bo look awesome and that is very likely what we're going to see. I really don't think there's anything that Jamie Pickett is going to offer Bo Nickal in this fight. Despite all of the unknowns surrounding Bo, the one thing we do know is that he is already one of the best wrestlers in all of MMA. That really should be enough. Pickett just isn't equipped to stop the takedowns and then deal with Bo on top of him. Pickett doesn't deal with pressure well and that is exactly what Bo is going to do. We have no idea of Bo can even take a punch, but I don't think Pickett is the guy who's going to really test his chin. Bo should take him down and pass his guard without too much of an issue and find the finish soon after.
Bets to consider: Fight starts round 2 +152
There's really no safe way to bet this fight. You're going to have to get wild to find anything with a meaningful number next to it. Everything Bo is so juiced that I don't think it's even worth digging that deeply into. Is -2200 a bit steep? Probably. Am I going to be the guy betting Jamie Pickett? Absolutely not. Fight starts round 2 being at +150 is at least somewhat interesting. There's a world where Bo gets the takedown and Pickett just lays on his back with a closed guard and controls his posture for a round. I'm not saying I'm playing it, but if I had to, that is at least somewhat playable.
Mateusz Gamrot defeats Jalin Turner Result: Gamrot by decision (10-1)
As the leader of the Mateusz Gamrot fan club, I'm legally obligated to pick him in this fight. It doesn't feel good picking against Turner though. Gamrot just fights a style that is really hard to deal with. He is a really good athlete and a top level grappler. He relentlessly shoots takedowns for the entire fight and doesn't get tired. Even if he isn't hitting all of those takedowns, he's attempting so many of them that his opponent essentially spends the entire fight defending just by default. I have a feeling that may be how this one goes too. Turner is extremely dangerous though. If he somehow stops all of the takedowns and keeps this fight at space, he should win it. He's huge and very powerful. He could easily find the knockout with a big left hand or catch Gamrot with something as he changes levels. I just don't know that Turner has that level of defensive grappling. He hasn't always looked great off of his back either and anything less than elite against Gamrot is going to be a problem. I think Gamrot can grind him out or maybe even find a late finish.
Bets to consider: Gamrot ML -215
Under normal circumstances, I think this line may be on the border of playable. What's giving me second thoughts is that Gamrot is coming in on somewhat short notice. I think he's had this fight for around 3 weeks or so. If Gamrot doesn't have his normal levels of cardio then maybe he is a bit more exposed than I think. With a full camp, I think I might lay this price, but I'm not sure how I'll go about it right now. Betting anyone else at -200 against Jalin Turner feels like asking for trouble as well, so we'll see how it goes.
Shavkat Rakhmonov defeats Geoff Neal Result: Rakhmonov by submission (11-1)
So, I know I was a bit late to jump on the Shavkat hype train, but this is when we really find out how real he is. This is a very, very good fight. Shavkat has pretty much ran over everyone he's fought in the UFC, but I do suspect that we see him face resistance here. Shavkat has been able to dominate guys on the ground and is a pretty solid striker from space. We don't know a whole lot about what Neal looks like on his back, but I think it's fairly safe to say Shavkat would have the advantage in that scenario. The wrinkle is that we don't know much about Neal on his back because he just doesn't get taken down. Shavkat is a good grappler, but I do think Neal can stuff at least some of his attempts. If forced to stay at space, I favor Neal there. He's just a better striker with more power and a better work rate. Shavkat generally does a good job of staying at range, but I don't know that his striking defense is all that great once the fight closes distance. The biggest thing that has held Neal back is that he's inconsistent. Sometimes he'll look great and other times it just looks like he doesn't want to fight. Him missing weight by a large portion doesn't help. Did he not train hard enough because he was lazy? Could he not train hard enough because of an injury? Or is he intentionally retaining weight to combat the grappling? There's no way to say for sure. Assuming Neal's healthy, I think we see a pretty good fight here. I have to go with Shavkat because I think there is a real chance that he can just carve Neal up once he's on top, but if this stays standing for long stretches, the speed of Neal is going to give him real issues.
Bets to consider: Neal ML +380
I'm not really sure exactly how we got to Shavkat -500 other than everyone just buying into the hype. Shavkat has too many unknowns for me to want to play him anywhere near this number. We've never seen him forced to stand at range with a fighter of this caliber. We also really don't know much about his cardio. On the other side, we've seen Neal hang with the best fighters in the division. What is holding me back is Neal's generally inconsistency and then the weight miss. I may pull the trigger anyways because this just seems wide for someone with as many unknowns as we have with Shavkat.
Valentina Shevchenko defeats Alexa Grasso Result: Grasso by submission (11-2)
In our first title fight of the evening, I think Valentina bounces back and retains her title. I like a lot of what Grasso does and how much her game has developed over the years, but this is just a bad matchup for her. Grasso is a good boxer, but relying on striking to beat Valentina is a tough way to go. Valentina doesn't fight with a tremendous pace and Grasso does throw volume, but Valentina controls the range so well that she basically doesn't take any damage. We've seen Valentina struggle some with grapplers and Grasso has improved there, but I don't think it's enough to be able to overcome Valentina. If anything, I think Valentina could dominate the grappling here if she wanted to. In short, I think Grasso's paths are pretty limited. She could look competitive for stretches, but I think Valentina is just too good and her style should be a tough case to crack for Grasso in this one.
Bets to consider: O3.5 rounds +100
If Valentina wanted to finish this fight, she would come out and grapple hard. She really just doesn't do that though and likes to play the outside game. In a fight like that, Grasso would be able to hang around. Valentina doesn't push a pace and isn't a true one punch knockout threat. If Valentina does go to the takedowns though, this over may end up looking not so great. Not sure how I'll approach this one yet.
Jon Jones defeats Ciryl Gane Result: Jones by submission (12-2)
I don't really know what to say about this fight. Jon Jones is almost entirely unknown at this point. He looked like he was declining when we saw him last. He's now 3 years older and in a different weight class. How much has he slowed? What is his cardio like? What is his durability like? I don't know the answers to any of those. I feel pretty comfortably saying what he is and isn't. He's a big, fast, athletic guy. His striking is really advanced for heavyweight. He also had his defensive grappling exposed a bit not too long ago. We're kind of left with deciding which of these two is more likely: Jon Jones, largely considered the greatest fighter of all time, is able to translate his game to heavyweight and is still a championship level fighter at 35 years old or that Ciryl Gane improved his grappling enough to prevent takedowns from someone who took down Daniel Cormier even though last year he couldn't stop takedowns from a guy that we didn't know could shoot for one. Now, I over simplified that a bit (somewhat intentionally) but I just think I would rather be on the side of proven greatness. I also think it's much more likely that Jon can win rounds striking than it would be for Gane to win a round grappling. Francis controlled Gane on the ground, but I think Jon could really damage him, especially if Gane starts to slow later in the fight. Gane is also a little too willing to go backwards for my taste and if he puts his back on the cage, that is just going to invite the takedown attempts and clinch work from Jon. I lean the Jones side here.
Bets to consider: Gane ML +138
When it comes to betting, you have to remove the narrative stuff and emotion though. I could really on play the Gane side here. I don't think I could ever bet someone with as many unknowns as Jones has at -170. The age, the layoff, and the new weight are all major components that will effect everything Jon does. How much slower will he be? How much cardio does he have? I have no idea how to even begin to speculate on those. If this fight stays standing for all 25 minutes, I think Gane wins that fight more often than not, which is what has me really thinking about taking a stab on Gane here. It's just how likely is it that we actually get that style of fight. Can Gane hang on the ground with Jon to at least stay safe or get up? Does Jon just punish him with elbows? I have no idea. I think there are such a wide array of outcomes that I feel better just watching this one as a fan.
Thanks for reading. Enjoy the card. Official bets are below
Official Bets
Tabatha Ricci by decision 1.25 units at -125 to win 1 unit
Garry/Kenan O1.5 rounds .75 units at -108 to win .69 units
Marc-Andre Barriault ML 2.5 units at -148 to win 1.69 units
Viviane Araujo ML 1 unit at +100 to win 1 unit
Derek Brunson ML .5 units at +194 to win .97 units
Geoff Neal ML .25 units at +380 to win .95 units
Shevchenko/Grasso O3.5 rounds .75 units at +100 to win .75 units
Net Gain/Loss
Event Total: + .13 units
Previous Year to Date Total: - 8.88 units
Updated Year to Date Total: - 8.75 units
UPDATE:
Weekly Record: 12 - 2
Previous Year to Date Record: 46 - 23 - 2
Updated Year to Date Record: 58 - 25 - 2
2022 Winning Percentage: 62.919%
2021 Winning Percentage: 60.000%
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