We got back on track with the bets, albeit with only small profit, but I'll take it. We just had to get a gredn number and now we can hit our stride. We should have a decent enough Fight Night ahead of us with a main event that I'm really looking forward to. We are getting the main event from a few weeks ago in Nikita Krylov vs Ryan Spann on this card as well. There's a handful of other fights that I'm interested in watching as well as some individuals to keep an eye on. We have a lot of fights, so let's not waste any time. Just to be clear, my picks will be in the bolded font, and the real results will be listed next to it in italics after the fight is official. Official bets will be at the bottom. Bets are now being officially tracked at BetMMA as well.
Carlston Harris defeats Jared Gooden Result: Harris by decision (1-0)
This is a fight that was thrown together on a few days notice after Gooden was able to step in. This isn't Gooden's first run in the UFC and while his first run wasn't great, I don't necessarily think he's completely behind the 8 ball here. The biggest concerns are Gooden's inconsistency and his cardio. His early UFC fights are on the lower volume side, which is strange because that normally hasn't been an issue. Gooden also hasn't had the best cardio and stepping in on about 3 days certainly can't help that dynamic. However, Gooden should at least have a chance. His defensive grappling is solid, so I think he should be able to mostly keep this one standing. In that scenario, he can compete. He normally has good volume and he has power. Harris doesn't defend strikes well, so Gooden finding a knockout is a live outcome. I do ultimately side with Harris though just due to the short notice nature of the fight. Harris has similar strengths and weaknesses to Gooden standing. Defense isn't the most impressive, but solid volume and power. On the feet, I think it's pretty even while they're fresh. I have my doubts that Harris actually gets takedowns because I think his wrestling is rather limited and Gooden's takedown defense is pretty good. However, if he were to ground the fight, I suspect that he could finish Gooden on the mat. I think this is closer than some may suggest, but the cardio and potential to grapple do have me on the Harris side.
Bets to consider: Gooden ML +240
Fanduel doesn't currently have any line on this fight, but if the odds they eventually drop are anywhere near the +240 on Gooden that is on best fight odds at the time of this writing, then he is really the only side. I don't think Harris is someone I'm looking to play at -300. I don't think his wrestling is good enough to consistently ground this fight. In that scenario, this fight has to be mostly even. Short notice Gooden is going to be a cardio problem, but it's not like Harris has great cardio himself. Neither fighter has any striking defense either. Seeing these guys absorbing damage at space for 15 minutes doesn't really translate to one guy being -300 for me. I'm not rushing to play it just because of it being on 3 days, but I definitely have no interest on Harris here. It will be interesting to see where the under ends up.
Bruno Silva defeats Tyson Nam Result: Silva by submission (2-0)
This fight is likely to not be an exciting one. Tyson Nam is not a fighter that I enjoy watching or look to back very often. His path to victory in every fight is pretty much the same and it's just too narrow for me. He's basically reliant on landing a big power shot on the counter and if he doesn't, he's probably going to lose. He just doesn't throw strikes. He's very, very content to do basically nothing. He also lets himself get hit a little too freely for me. He is a good defensive wrestler, but he never wrestles offensively either. I don't think Silva is a world beater or anything, but I have to pick him here even though I don't feel good about it. Silva should throw more output on the feet, even though he isn't the highest volume striker either. He throws a lot of low kicks, which should be effective, but they're also a bit easier to get countered off of, which scares me. Silva is probably going to try to wrestle, but Nam stops takedowns very well. I have to favor Silva just because there's a very real scenario where Nam lands legitimately like 17 strikes in the entire fight and just gets outworked, but I'll sort of be holding my breath until we get there.
Bets to consider: Nam ML +152, O2.5 rounds +100
Fanduel also doesn't have props on the prelims yet, so we'll see where those are and I'll have to add them in later. I'm not sure how they'll approach an over here, but I'll take a look at that when I get it. On the money line side, I guess I would have to side with Nam. Silva being around -200 sort of feels like a best case scenario for him. I doubt he has much grappling success and I don't think he's the caliber of striking to just blow Nam away. He doesn't have the output to just blow him away either. Nam has the power to do damage on the counters to make this close if Silva isn't going to push a pace on him. I just don't think I can bring myself to lose money on Nam while I watch him like 22 strikes in 15 minutes though and lose to low kicks. Turns out the over is interesting. One really low volume guy against another low-ish volume guy and only one has finishing upside, over 2.5 rounds at plus money doesn't really add up to me.
JJ Aldrich defeats Ariane Lipski Result: Lipski by decision (2-1)
I really don't like picking JJ Aldrich, but I guess I have to. Aldrich isn't bad, but she's just not really good at anything either. She's just a very steady, very reliable fighter in all aspects. She's not going to do anything spectacular, but she's not going to do anything stupid either. She's not a great striker and her lack of athletic traits really puts a ceiling on her. Her output is uninspiring, but it's not bad. The real difference in this fight is that she really should be able to dominate the grappling. The thing is that she just doesn't shoot takedowns. If this fight stays standing, it's going to be competitive, but Aldrich should be able wipe Lipski out if she wants to. For Lipski, she should compete standing. She should be faster and have the volume edge on the feet. Aldrich is more technical, so she could potentially just win on the counters, but that would be a close fight. Lipski's grappling just hasn't been very good at all and I would be surprised to see her stay off her back if Aldrich actually tries to grapple. If Aldrich takes the path of least resistance, she should have no problem. A 15 minute kickboxing match would get very interesting though.
Bets to consider: Lipski ML +285
Seeing JJ Aldrich approach -400 is interesting to say the least. I don't think she's the kind of fighter in terms of caliber or style. It's really hard to be that large of a favorite without high level technical striking or being a reliable dominant grappler. Aldrich isn't that kind of striker, she doesn't reliably attempt takedowns, and she lacks finishing ability because of her athletic limitations. There's really no path to her being -400 for me. She should look -400, but she's just never aggressively pursued takedowns. On the feet, she may be a small favorite just based on her technical skills, but she would likely be at a volume disadvantage. I could only bet Lipski here, but with how bad she's looked on bottom, I can't really make the play just yet.
Victor Henry defeats Tony Gravely Result: Henry by decision (3-1)
This is a much better fight and one that I'm actually looking forward to. I do prefer the Henry side here, but just by a little. Henry is a high output and cardio fighter, which is really what I'm looking to back whenever I can. He's not an other worldly striker, but he's aggressive and puts a lot out there. He doesn't have great striking defense though and with someone like Gravely, he has the power to do a lot of damage if he lands. Gravely will obviously look to wrestle here and he may have some success early. Henry has solid takedown defense, but nothing too crazy. Even if he does go down, I kind of expect Henry to be active enough to work his way up. He is going to throw submission attempts up to create action and it wouldn't even surprise if he got one of them as Gravely isn't known for having the best submission defense in the world. The big problem in this fight is that we know Gravely has about a round and a half of cardio. At that point, Gravely is going to be in real trouble. Henry is going to pour it on and I don't really think Gravely is going to hold up under that kind of onslaught. If Gravely can't find the knockout early, I don't think the back half of this fight goes well for him. I suppose he could just win on top time, but I would be pretty surprised to find out that he could just blanket Henry for two rounds.
Bets to consider: U2.5 rounds +150
I don't have a number on this under yet, but it has to be one to look at. This fight feels like one that just can't really go the distance. Gravely probably has the early finishing equity. He has the power and Henry lacks striking defense. As the fight goes, Gravely will start to fade and Henry is going to pour on the pressure. I think he could just force Gravely to fold under the pressure once he's tired. I don't think Gravely is the most durable guy to begin with, so an early finish isn't out of the cards either. Add in that I don't trust Gravely's submission defense even if he can get a takedown and I think this fight goes under pretty consistently. Now knowing the number is +150, I think I'll play it. I don't think Gravely is going to get a ton of top time here, so a fight between these two standing should finish.
Mario Bautista defeats Guido Cannetti Result: Bautista by submission (4-1)
This is my weekly fight that I just would love to know how it came together. I would genuinely like to hear from someone at the UFC as to what purpose this fight serves. I'm not sure how many favorable fights Bautista needs in a row before he gets a real opponent, but apparently it is at least one more. In short, Bautista has him covered. He's younger, faster, stronger, and more athletic. He's a better striker and better grappler. Cannetti has some power of his own and he can be dangerous early though. We've seen Bautista finished before, so I guess seeing him get knocked out isn't a completely absurd outcome, but it's really all Cannetti has. If he doesn't knock him out in the first round, he's going to get finished as he just doesn't have the gas to keep Bautista off of him late.
Bets to consider: Bautista ITD -460
Still don't have these numbers and I don't think they'll be great. Money lines are untouchable right now and I doubt the props look any better. I guess if you want the shot on Guido, it has to be round 1 knockout as that's really all he has. Otherwise, I guess Bautista ITD is the move, but I doubt the number is even remotely interesting once I get access to it. Turns out the number is smoked. There's really know way to play this fight.
Josh Fremd defeats Sedriques Dumas Result: Fremd by submission (5-1)
I mention it every time, but I have mutual friends with Fremd, so maybe I'm biased. Anyways, I'll take him here against Dumas making his debut. I think Dumas has some potential as the talent is in there, but he has a lot of growing to do before he can realize that potential. His athletic traits are there, but it's the MMA skills that need to come along. He's a big, strong, fast, athletic guy and that may very well be enough here. He has power and we know Fremd likes to get reckless and is there to be hit. Dumas could also wrestle Fremd as his defensive wrestling has been hit and miss. Getting takendown by Gore multiple times certainly isn't a great look. At the same time, Dumas has fought virtually no one. I don't know that his wrestling is anything special and even if he got takedowns, I would be shocked to find out that he could hold Fremd down. On the feet, Dumas doesn't really have much defense of his own and he doesn't really have much pace. I have my suspicions that his pacing issue is at least in part due to the fact that his cardio isn't all that great. I don't think Fremd is an obvious favorite, but he's more proven. He's both fought and beaten better competition. I think he's at least even on the feet, if not slightly better. He's reckless, sure, but I like his pace and cardio a lot better. His volume will be there. Dumas has a solid submission game and he's a fine wrestler, but it wouldn't surprise me to see Fremd have some grappling success as well. This fight just seems like one that should be largely even to me. The differentiating factors are experience, level of competition, and cardio, which all go Fremd's way, so I have to go with him here.
Bets to consider: Fremd ML +154
So, I fully acknowledge that I may very well be biased here. Even in a world where that was true, I think I was just pretty forthcoming about everyone's strengths and weaknesses. I don't see how what I just described has the debuting fighter at -200. That just doesn't add up to me. I'm not saying go heavy on Fremd because he could very certainly get knocked out or even submitted here and it wouldn't surprise me. However, if these guys are just going crazy trading chances on the feet and on the ground, I want the +150 ticket. If they survive those early chances, I know Fremd is going to have the better cardio and output in extended minutes as well. I just think this is a fight that should be lined competitively around -110/-110.
Davey Grant defeats Raphael Assuncao Result: Grant by submission (6-1)
This is an interesting fight. I've gone back and forth, but I think I do ultimately have to side with Grant. He just seems like he has more left in the tank at this stage of his career. Grant isn't going to do anything wild or crazy, but he's going to come ready to fight. He's aggressive and he'll bring the pressure and volume. He's not as technical on the feet, but I think his output and power may give him a slight edge. Grant has wrestled at times, but I don't expect him to be shooting takedowns here and I doubt he would have success if he did. The downside to Grant's game is that he's so aggressive that he leaves himself open to be hit quite a bit. On top of that, because he's such a max effort type of guy, he does start to slow down late in the second round. For Assuncao, while he is clearly declining, he's still live here. He's a guy who wants to counter and Grant will give him the opportunity to do so. Assuncao was never a high pace fighter, but it's fallen off even more as he's aged. I just don't know if Assuncao can either hurt Grant bad enough or land enough to actually win on countering. Grant is going to hit him and I can't trust Assuncao's durability anymore either. He could potentially have some grappling success here though. I think this is a fun, competitive fight, but I have to lean slightly to Grant.
Bets to consider: Assuncao ML +122
The current -150 sort of feels about the max for Grant in my opinion. I think this is a fight that should be competitive, but you have to side with Grant on power and output. He's also just looked a lot more viable over his last handful of fights where Assuncao has looked like a guy who's on his way out. If Grant just flattens him in the opening minute then he looks better than -150, but if we get an extended fight, it should just be close. I think even at his age, Assuncao has the better cardio and he should be able to land solid, it's just all about if he can not fall too far behind on the numbers. Assuncao has the potential to grapple as well, so I would rather take the shot on him at +122 than Grant at -150, but it's a pass for me on the money lines.
Karl Williams defeats Lukasz Brzeski Result: Williams by decision (7-1)
This one may be a bit sloppy and has the potential to not be as exciting, but this is a fight that is good in terms of just seeing where both fighters are at in their careers. I think this should be a solid spot for Williams. Williams has good cardio for the division and his wrestling is...fine to decent I guess. I do suspect that is enough in this fight though. Brzeski is dangerous, but really only for about a round at most. Williams is a competent enough striker that he should be able to stay safe while Brzeski has the gas to be dangerous. After the first round, I think Williams should be able to hit takedowns without issue and either ride out rounds on top or look for the finish late. Brzeski could find the early knockout, but that's really his only hope here in my estimation.
Bets to consider: Williams round 3 or decision +145
I think this is the way to go here. Williams isn't really a crazy finisher or anything, but if he gets on top, he really shouldn't have an issue. Brzeski could get so gassed late that he basically finishes himself. Otherwise, Williams will probably cruise to a decision victory as long as he stays safe on the feet. I prefer this to trying to guess at which method we actually get.
Anton Turkalj defeats Vitor Petrino Result: Petrino by decision (7-2)
This fight is going to go one of two very distinct ways. Either Petrino is going to nuke Turkalj early and have a very impressive knockout win on his resume or he's not, which means he'll gas out and have Tukalj on top of him for multiple rounds. Petrino is the striker in this matchup and I do think he's a decent one with pretty good power. His cardio isn't the best though, which sort of resigns him to a first round knockout. What makes that somewhat likely is that Anton Turkalj has legitimately 0 striking defense. Turkalj is a decent wrestler though and he has good cardio. The back half of this fight is his if he can get there. I suspect he can even get takedowns early, but Petrino is a competent defensive wrestler while he has energy. He is kind of hit and miss in the takedown defense department, but when he goes down, he does have a get up game while fresh. The first round of this fight will be dicey, but Turkalj really should win the later rounds without too much of an issue. I have to lean towards him, but I don't feel great about it.
Bets to consider: Petrino finish only -140
The cardio dynamic does make me wonder if Turkalj could get a late finish just because Petrino is too tired to defend himself. While that is certainly in the cards, I think a vast majority of the finish upside is on the Petrino side. If he wins, it is extremely likely it happens inside the distance. I'm not sure if I'll play it yet, but I'm considering it.
Said Nurmagomedov defeats Jonathan Martinez Result: Martinez by decision (7-3)
I think I like Said a little more than a lot of the betting community, but he's starting to get to a point where the rubber meets the road. He's going to need to dial in some more consistent performances if he wants to continue to rise. By that, I'm mainly referring to his offensive output. Sometimes he strikes with a good enough pace and other times he just isn't throwing enough. He throws a lot of flashy spinning kicks and stuff like that, which is great, but he uses a lot of energy on things that don't land. He has some submissions, but I do kind of think someone could really wrestle him, although I doubt Martinez is that guy. I don't really think Martinez is the guy to beat him in general. Martinez is just too reliant on low kicks for me. Martinez kind of needs someone who's going to stand in front of him and Said won't do that. He's going to skirt the outside and be able to land more on Martinez than I think Martinez does back. I don't think Martinez will be able to get takedowns in this one either. Said fights so close so often that eventually one of these narrow decisions is going to go against him, but I don't think this is the one.
Bets to consider: Martinez ML +205
This is a pass spot for me. In general, I don't think backing Said as a big favorite against legitimate competition is a good idea. He just fights too close. His output isn't high enough and he isn't the kind of grappler who can just run away with decisions against high level fighters. With that said, I do think he probably wins a close-ish decision against Martinez at a high rate. Said is the better defensive fighter and is more durable as well on top of what I said earlier. I think the optics of this fight will likely work in his favor too. While Martinez is throwing low kicks, Said is going to be throwing and landing with more power. I guess I would rather be on Martinez since the fight is likely to be competitive, but I'm not that interested in either side or the over/under.
Nikita Krylov defeats Ryan Spann Result: Krylov by decision (8-3)
This fight was just on the schedule, so I just broke it down. I'll copy and paste what I said there below:
"I'm not sure how good this fight will actually be, but it should be entertaining enough as a main event. In short, I think Krylov is more skilled in virtually every aspect of MMA. I think he's a more technical striker with a wider array of techniques available to him. I think he's a better wrestler and a better overall grappler as well. I think he has better defense and better cardio. The only advantages I think Spann really has are his athleticism and power. Spann is the more explosive guy and more dangerous because of it. The thing that's holding me up is that Krylov just hasn't been reliable in the past. He finds ways to give his opponents a chance to win. Krylov will have to survive early in this one, while Spann is dangerous. Spann only has about a round and a half of cardio, so after the 5 minute mark, Spann's chances will start to fade, but I think he is live early. I think Krylov getting knocked out or diving into a guillotine are much more live outcomes than they probably should be. I still have to go with Krylov, but I'm anxious about it."
Bets to consider: Krylov ITD -115
Now that this fight is only 3 rounds instead of a 5 round main event, it changes the dynamic slightly. Spann's cardio becomes a little bit less of an issue, although he's still going to have diminished chances after a round. I still think Krylov ITD at only -115 is the way to go. I'm not really sure how Krylov ITD is -115 and Spann ITD is +160, but the fight doesn't go is almost -700. I would be shocked to see this one go the distance. I just don't think Ryan Spann is capable of fighting a decision one way or another. Either he's going to find an early finish or he's going to gas so bad that he gets finished himself. Krylov really just should be the better fighter, so I have to be on his side here.
Alexander Volkov defeats Alexandr Romanov Result: Volkov by KO (9-3)
This is a weird fight. In general, I think Volkov is the better fighter. It's really the style matchup that makes this one very interesting. Volkov is the better striker and if this fight is at space, he should punish Romanov pretty badly. He also has the better cardio, although not be as much as one may initially assume. The issue with Volkov in general and especially in this fight are his grappling. His takedown defense hasn't been great and his ground game off his back is probably worse. Romanov is an aggressive wrestler and he's going to shoot early. I expect that Romanov can probably get takedowns while he has energy, but that's only a round. If he doesn't finish Volkov early, it may be trouble as his cardio just falls off of a cliff beyond 5 minutes. Where I'm left wondering is that the most trouble we've seen Volkov in on the ground has come against Tom Aspinall and Curtis Blaydes. We just saw Romanov lose to Marcin Tybura. Those are two very different levels of fighters. I've just seen Volkov beat better competition, so I think I have to side with him, but the early going may be very scary for him. He's going to end up on bottom and he very likely could get finished pretty quickly.
Bets to consider: Volkov ML +130
I just can't really advocate betting on Romanov at -160 knowing he doesn't have the cardio to push beyond 5 minutes. At the same time, it's hard to want to put money down on Volkov. Romanov really should have no problems getting him down early unless he gets clipped early. I think the under is a little too far gone for me to want to play anything there as well. Ill be passing here unless we get some weird line movement late.
Petr Yan defeats Merab Dvalishvili Result: Dvalishvili by decision (9-4)
I know I'm the Yan hater, but I think this matchup serves him well. Merab is an aggressive grappler and he has good cardio, but I'm just no so sure this is the spot for him. Yan is a good grappler as well and even if Merab can get a takedown here and there, I would be pretty surprised if he actually was able to control Yan for long stretches. Yan can at least hang with Merab cardio wise and at range, Yan should have no problems. Merab really isn't a finisher so even if he can solidify position with an early takedown, he's going to have to do that over and over again. I don't think we'll see Merab be able to control Yan in the clinch either. It really should result in Yan being able to strike in space and that is going to favor Yan significantly. Yan should either win the later rounds pretty clean or find a late finish. I've been on Yan in the past for his slow starts, but Merab's lack of finishing ability and this being a 5 round fight works in his favor here.
Bets to consider: Yan 4, 5, or decision -120
This fight should get into the championship rounds. Merab isn't a finisher as we just went over and Yan doesn't really push a crazy pace early. He's going to ease into the fight and his finishes all come late. Merab is a tough guy and maybe his takedown attempts limit the danger enough for him to make it to a decision. In either case, I think you have to be on the Yan side of the betting here. I guess Merab by decision is the route if you really want to play him.
Thanks for reading, have a good day, and enjoy the card. Official Bets are below.
Official Bets
Nam/Silva O2.5 rounds .75 units at -106 to win .71 units
Henry/Gravely U2.5 rounds .5 units at +150 to win .75 units
Josh Fremd ML .5 units at +176 to win .88 units
Karl Williams Round 3 or decision .5 units at +130 to win .65 units
Nikita Krylov ITD 1.15 units at -115 to win 1 unit
Yan Rounds 4, 5, or decision 1.15 units at -115 to win 1 unit
Net Gain/Loss
Event Total: + .13 units
Previous Year to Date Total: - 8.75 units
Updated Year to Date Total: - 8.62 units
UPDATE:
Weekly Record: 9 - 4
Previous Year to Date Record: 58 - 25 - 2
Updated Year to Date Record: 67 - 29 - 2
2022 Winning Percentage: 62.919%
2021 Winning Percentage: 60.000%
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