After a week off from picking fights, it feels good to be back. We did get the opening week of the PFL season and it was a pretty fun event, so that held us over. I've seen some interesting takes on this card as a whole and while I don't think it's like a card of the decade, it should be a really nice PPV. I'm excited for it and there's just something about the Adesanya vs Pereira rivalry that really intrigues me. I can't quite put a finger on what it is exactly, but it's just a really interesting dynamic that those two have. I'm ready for it. Just to be clear, my picks will be in the bolded font, and the real results will be listed next to it in italics after the fight is official. Official bets will be at the bottom. Bets are now being officially tracked at BetMMA as well.
Jaqueline Amorim defeats Sam Hughes Result: Hughes by decision (0-1)
I don't really have any super hot take or high level analysis for this one. Amorim seems like a perfectly fine fighter to be making her UFC debut. She has good BJJ and has been submitting people like crazy in her regional career. Outside of that, I'm not really in a position to make a lot of conclusions on her skills though. She submits people so fast that the rest of her game is basically unknown. I think her wrestling is ok overall. It's hard to say for sure, but I do kind of think her striking might not be very good. Her cardio is almost completely unknown. Hughes is more of a known commodity here, she's just not a great one. Hughes really lacks physicality and athleticism in a huge way and that is one of my biggest turnoffs when picking or betting, especially in low level fights. On the feet, you have to favor Hughes. Hughes is likely the better striker and I have to assume her cardio will hold up better late. However, her striking defense isn't very good and she has no power at all. The big thing is that Hughes just doesn't stop takedowns well. She's pretty much been taken down by anyone who really wants her down. I know Amorim is going to be better on the mat and I have to assume it hits the floor at least once. In that case, Amorim has to be the favorite and she probably has the skills to submit Hughes.
Bets to consider: Hughes ML +220
This is just one of those fights. I can't bet a debuting fighter with this many question marks at -280. At the same time, I really don't want to bet Hughes, but it's really getting out there. I think at anything +200 or better, betting Hughes is probably the way. Amorim really likes to roll for leg locks, which work much better on the regional scene than they do against UFC competition. She could end up giving up top position and getting ridden out by Hughes. She could also just get stuck on the feet and beat up. Then comes in the factor that we don't know how much cardio she has. A fighter making their debut with this many questions being -280 could make the opponent an auto bet without even knowing the names and matchup dynamics and I wouldn't really disagree with you. I still really don't want to bet Hughes because her style is one that I really don't like, but if this goes any farther I probably just have to close my eyes and hope for the best.
Steve Garcia defeats Shayilan Nuerdanbieke Result: Garcia by KO (1-1)
This is kind of a weird one. Nuerdanbieke is a guy who I just don't really know what to make of. He's certainly not a bad fighter by any means, but I don't really know that he's a good one either. It's like everything he does well is severely handicapped by some other aspect of his game. I think he's a decent wrestler, but he's not much of a grappler when it hits the mat. I don't really think his cardio is that great either. He isn't a horrible striker either, but he is extremely low output. On top of that, I don't trust his durability. Steve Garcia is a very strange fighter as well. He just is never in normal fights. It feels like every fight he's in ends up being very one sided, both win and lose. Either he'll get knocked out in 30 seconds or he gets controlled on the ground for 14 full minutes. When he wins he'll get 12 minutes of top time or he gets a 90 second knockout of his own. The reason I pick him here is that I just trust him to actually do something. For better or for worse, Garcia is going to bring the fight. Now, that could mean that he walks right into a knockout and loses, but if he doesn't, he should win. I assume Nuerdanbieke could grapple him here as well, but if he doesn't, I don't see how he wins a decision. In a fight where both guys have durability questions that cancel out, I just want the guy who is going to be more active. I don't think the grappling aspect is enough in Nuerdanbieke's favor to sway me in his direction.
Bets to consider: Garcia ML +152
I feel fairly confident in saying that Garcia is the side here for betting. I just don't really know how you get to Nuerdanbieke -190. He's not a good enough wrestler to assume he just takes Garcia down and controls him for long stretches. They're both live to find a knockout, but Garcia is the much more active striker. I could potentially buy Nuerdanbieke being a small favorite, but not -190. I think playing Garcia is the way to have action on this fight if you want it.
Ignacio Bahamondes defeats Trey Ogden Result: Bahamondes by decision (2-1)
I think this fight is pretty straight forward. This really should be a good night for Bahamondes. He's a big, long, range based striker who is going to put out good volume. He's also a young guy who should still be improving fight to fight. His defensive grappling has already improved from when we first saw him on Contender's Series and that trend should continue. He does have a decent enough submission game as well if he needs it. Ogden is primarily a grappler, but I just don't really trust his wrestling. Even if he gets Bahamondes down, I'm not so sure that he would be able to do anything with it. On the feet, Ogden is an all the way in or all the way out kind of fighter. If he's not in close working for takedowns, he wants to be all the way on the outside. That isn't going to work for him here. Bahamondes is just a significantly better striker with more volume and power. I have some questions surrounding Bahamondes, especially his striking defense, but Ogden isn't the caliber of striker and doesn't have the power for me to worry about that here. I suppose Ogden could theoretically win on top control, but I'm really not buying into that.
Bets to consider: U2.5 rounds -124
I think the moneyline is an easy pass for this fight. I don't think laying -330 on Bahamondes is a great idea at this stage and I really just don't think this is the matchup for Ogden. Playing the under may end up being sweaty, but that's my way to play this one. The worry is that Ogden gets scared off early and becomes content to stand on the outside and just get out pointed to a decision loss. If he's aggressive, he probably gets clipped while closing the distance and knocked out. I wish the number was a bit better, but it's not horrible either.
Loopy Godinez defeats Cynthia Calvillo Result: Godinez by decision (3-1)
This is a really strange fight. It feels like the way this fight plays out is almost completely reliant on Calvillo and what version of her we're getting. If we were getting the best version of her, she would probably be lined as a favorite. Calvillo is a very solid all around fighter. She's an ok striker with decent output. She is an adequate grappler as well and should probably go to it more often than she does. There's two very huge things going on with Calvillo coming into this fight. The first is that she's going back down to 115 lbs. Fighters moving down in weight is usually not a great sign and Calvillo wasn't exactly making weight with ease when she moved up in the first place. The bigger problem is that Calvillo has just looked lost recently. She hasn't looked very good at all. She failed to get off the stool a few fights ago and lost her last fight because she just didn't engage. I just can't even begin to predict where she's at mentally coming into this one and what version of her is even in the cards. Loopy, for the most part, has been pretty reliable. She is going to want to wrestle, but I'm not so sure she's going to be successful there. Calvillo has done a pretty good job defending takedowns for the most part in her career. On the feet, again, I think Calvillo really should be better there. I just don't really trust her at this stage. I think it probably ends up being a pretty competitive fight and we see Loopy win based on activity. She's going to throw more and be the one initiating the takedown attempts. I don't have a great feel for it, but that's my feeling right now.
Bets to consider: Calvillo ML +235, FDNGTD +210
I really don't know what to do here. Betting Calvillo seems so obvious, but it really isn't at the same time. Just the way she's looked the last few times out may very well be enough to scare me off. At this point, it's hard to trust that we're going to even get a solid effort and adding the additional weight cut into the mix really has me wanting to steer clear of her I think. It's just the number has gotten pretty far out there. The fight doesn't go is interesting. If Calvillo just doesn't show up again, she could very well end up being finished. Loopy is going to bring the fight, so if Calvillo isn't ready, she could just get run over. I think this fight has way too much variance for anything more than a small dart throw.
Karl Williams defeats Chase Sherman Result: cancelled
This is about as bad a matchup as you can find for Sherman outside of ranked fighters. Sherman gets a lot of shit from fans and while a lot of what people say isn't completely wrong, a lot of it is also unnecessarily disrespectful. Sherman is a guy who really needs his opponent to give him the exact fight he wants. Sherman isn't a poor striker by any means, but he needs someone to stand in front of him. He has power and decent low kicks, but that's sort of it for him. His cardio really doesn't go more than a round and his grappling is very poor. He just doesn't stop takedowns and while he can work his way up, he just doesn't have the gas in the tank to do it more than a few times. Williams is a wrestler and he's going to go after it. He's going to shoot takedowns and once he gets Sherman down a couple of times, he should be able to do whatever he wants. As long as Williams doesn't get knocked out in the first few minutes of the fight, he should be fine.
Bets to consider: Williams ITD +110
I get that Karl Williams isn't necessarily a prolific finisher, but he really should be able to here. Sherman has been submitted by much worse grapplers in the not too distant past. Sherman just isn't a guy who's cardio allows him to make it to decisions very often, one way or another. Williams is going to be on top for long stretches and should be able to posture up land some shots after a round. I've seen some people wanting to bet Sherman and while the number is big, it's not for me. It is heavyweight MMA and that comes with a lot of variance, but this isn't the fight for that in my opinion.
Gerald Meerschaert defeats Joe Pyfer Result: Pyfer by KO (3-2)
When Meerschaert is involved, you're always going to get an interesting fight. I find him to be perpetually underrated and I think it has to do with his style. He's a slow starter and the first few minutes of every fight are usually a bit hairy. Gerald has been knocked out early in fights his fair share and that is certainly in play here. Pyfer is a guy who has sort of fallen in love with his striking, but I'm not really sure he's anything special there. He's a decent enough athlete and has some pop, but that's really about it. He seems pretty limited technique wise and he doesn't throw a ton of output. He may end up knocking out Gerald early, but if he doesn't, I think this fight is competitive. Pyfer could get takedowns, but laying in Gerald's guard is asking for trouble. I think we get a competitive fight here and like Gerald to find a way. He's the more experienced fighter against a higher level of competition as well, which only works in his favor.
Bets to consider: Meerschaert ML +168
I know I back him more than I probably should, but I'll take it one more time. I think Gerald is just consistently better than he gets credit for. If he doesn't go down in the first 3 minutes, this should be pretty even. I think Gerald is a pretty effective striker even if it doesn't always look pretty. It's not that I favor Gerald if he's just going to stand toe to toe with Pyfer and bite the mouth piece, but he isn't a massive underdog there either. As this fight goes, I think it starts to swing in Meerschaert's favor more and more. I'll take the shot at +170. I don't feel the need to play by submission since I think he could just wear Pyfer down and win a decision as well. If he survives the first 3 minutes, Gerald is very live.
Luana Pinheiro defeats Michelle Waterson-Gomez Result: Pinheiro by decision (4-2)
I really don't have a ton to say about this fight. It's probably the fight on the card that I'm least excited for as well. The reason that I go with Pinheiro here is that I think she has a lot of the upside. It sort of feels like the best case scenario for Waterson is a narrow split decision. The positive for Waterson though is that she's just not easy to fight against. She fights pretty much everyone close. She keeps fights on the outside and turns everything into slow paced, low output kick boxing matches. Waterson could have grappling success here as well. In her pre-UFC run, Pinheiro was a bit prone to fighting off of her back, so if she reverts back to that, then Waterson could ride out rounds on top. The reason I go with Pinheiro is that I think she has the better chance at big moments. She has more power and should land the bigger shots. She's also younger and more explosive. I think she may be able to get takedowns in this one as well. I don't feel good about it and the margins are pretty thin, but I guess I slightly prefer Pinheiro.
Bets to consider: Waterson-Gomez ML +140
This really isn't the fight I'm looking to bet, but I would rather be on Waterson I think. Waterson just forces fights to be close. I would rather be on the +140 side of a close decision, especially since Pinheiro doesn't have the best gas tank in the world. If you're betting every fight, Waterson is the side I would want in this one.
Kelvin Gastelum defeats Chris Curtis Result: Gastelum by decision (5-2)
This is a fight that I'm really looking forward to. I imagine that this one ends up being fairly competitive as well. Despite the current run that Kelvin is on, I don't think he's completely cooked. He's not the guy he was a handful of years ago, but he still has some left in the tank in my estimation. As long as that is true, I believe that he has the wider array of skills to use in this fight. Curtis is a guy who generally needs to be given his style of fight in order to succeed. When that happens, he's been very good, but he struggles when that isn't the case. Kelvin may very well just stand in front of him, but I think he has a least a shot if he does. However, Kelvin has the ability to wrestle Curtis if he wants to. I don't think he is going to dominate in the grappling, but he could hit a takedown or two. Additionally, I think Kelvin will be able to fight on the outside a bit better. Curtis really needs this fight to take place in the pocket and if it does, he could win that fight. I just think I prefer Kelvin's more diverse set of skills.
Bets to consider: Gastelum ML -132
This isn't the best line ever, but I think there is a bit of value to be extracted. As the line continues to move though, I have considered the point where I would actually want Curtis. I think I make Gastelum somewhere in the realm of -150 to -160 favorite, so if he did get out to -180 or something, I'm not against playing Curtis. The over on this one is smashed. Gastelum finish only -108 is interesting though. Kelvin is was too durable to be finished, even with the power Curtis has shown. Nothing is really standing out to me here.
Raul Rosas Jr. defeats Christian Rodriguez Result: Rodriguez by decision (5-3)
I don't think I can pick Rodriguez outright, but damn I thought about it. Rodriguez is very underrated coming into this fight. I think he's a pretty solid young fighter. The one big issue in his game is that he's been taken down way too often. That will be the thing against Rosas as he obviously wants to get this fight to the ground. Rosas is aggressive with his takedown attempts, but I don't think he's an amazing wrestler by any means. I expect his takedowns are getting better, but I also assume Rodriguez is improving defensively. Rodriguez does have a tendency to give his back once he goes down and that's really what has me thinking I still have to pick Rosas. He could easily end up getting back mounted for like 8 minutes in this fight. Rodriguez is a good enough grappler to not get submitted, but if he has his back taken over and over, he'll lose a decision. If he stays standing, I think he wins no problem. He's a significantly better striker than Rosas. I'm also not fully convinced that Rosas has the cardio to go a really hard, competitive 15 minutes. Those stylistic things have me still picking Rosas, but Rodriguez will make this closer than he's being given credit for.
Bets to consider: Rodriguez ML +198
As I'm sure you could have guessed, I think Rodriguez as the side. He could end up having Rosas on his back all 3 rounds, but at +200, I think you have to take a small shot. Whatever percentage chance you give this fight of staying standing for extended minutes is all Rodriguez. I believe his grappling is enough to scramble with Rosas and potentially hold his own there. I'm ok with taking the plunge at +200.
Kevin Holland defeats Santiago Ponzinibbio Result: Holland by KO (6-3)
Unfortunately, I think we're coming to the end of Ponzinibbio's run as a top welterweight. His last fight against Morono was really just not the old Santiago Ponzinibbio. He won the fight late, but he was losing pretty cleanly to that point. His durability seems to be starting to fade on him and he looked a touch slow as well. For this version of Ponzinibbio, Kevin Holland is a tough night at the office. Holland is much bigger, longer, and faster. Watching Ponzinibbio get hurt consistently by Morono only leads me to believe that Holland is going to be able to hurt him. Holland is a really good striker and has great hand speed. If Santiago's chin is somehow able to hold up, he could make this one competitive, but I just don't think that is very likely. Santiago still holds some of his power, but Kevin Holland doesn't really absorb much damage and he's always been durable as well. I think this should be a good spot for Holland.
Bets to consider: Holland by KO +210
I hate to keep harping on it, but the Morono fight just wasn't a good look for Ponzinibbio. Morono is a good fighter, but he's not really a guy that we think of as having crazy power. He was putting Ponzinibbio on wobbly legs very consistently in that fight before he lost. Sub in a guy in Kevin Holland who has really good power, elite speed, and a massive size advantage and I don't really see how this goes any other way.
Adrian Yanez defeats Rob Font Result: Font by KO (6-4)
This is going to be a fun one. For me, this fight is going to go one of two ways. Either Rob Font's durability is just gone and he's going to be getting hurt very consistently or it's not and we'll get a competitive fight. That's really it for me. If Font has his durability mostly intact, then he could win this fight. I think he's a better fighter in terms of a complete skillset. He has good volume on the feet and will put on the pressure. I think he would be better in the clinch and potentially from top position if he decided to initiate some grappling. It really is the last two fights for Font that seem to be suggesting that his chin is fading fast. If it is indeed mashed potatoes, Yanez is going to hurt him and probably knock him out. Yanez is really good on the counters in the pocket. Font is going to force the issue and walk into the fire, it's just a matter of if he can step back out of it or not. If he can keep things intact, I think he has better cardio late. I just don't know that he'll be intact enough by that point of the fight to take advantage of it. My gut is that Yanez is going to hurt him with short hooks on the inside when Font comes into the pocket and probably knocks him out.
Bets to consider: U2.5 -102
I don't hate anyone taking the shot on Font, but I can't do it myself. Seeing him get hurt and dropped over his last two fights so consistently is just not the type of situation I'm looking to lose money on right now. I think going with the under is a better way. If Font's chin really is done, then Yanez should finish him. At the same time, Font could finish Yanez if he starts getting his volume off. Yanez isn't the most defensively sound fighter in the world, so Font could potentially put it on him. Probably another pass for me though.
Gilbert Burns defeats Jorge Masvidal Result: Burns by decision (7-4)
Much like what I just said about Rob Font, it kind of feels like Jorge Masvidal is on his way out. He just doesn't feel like the same guy to me anymore. At his age, he may just be starting to lose a little speed and a little of the juice on his strikes, get ups, and movement. His power is still there and he's still a good striker, but the physical traits seem to be declining on him. Even his durability is starting to go. With that said, this isn't an unwinnable fight for him or anything. Gilbert isn't a fun matchup for anyone, but Masvidal has a couple of key advantages. He's likely still the more durable fighter and his cardio is better. The worry is that Burns just gets on top and does whatever he wants. I think that is the most likely outcome, but not a foregone conclusion or anything like that. Masvidal doesn't really get submitted, but Burns is elite in that department. If Masvidal can stay upright, this fight is probably competitive and given his technical edge, I think Masvidal can have success there. He just can't get stuck on his back. It just doesn't feel like Jorge has the same fire in him though and when someone already has one foot out the door and is using the R word, that's not usually a good sign.
Bets to consider: U2.5 rounds -146
It's a big-ish number, but I think this is the safe way to go. I've contemplated taking a shot on Masvidal, but he just doesn't feel engaged to me. I know that's not really quantifiable, but he just seems like a guy who knows he's sort of done with this portion of his career and is transitioning to his post fighting role in this sport. He could still get a knockout, especially with the status of Burns durability, but it doesn't feel likely. If Jorge really is checked out, then Burns could probably finish him on top, either by ground and pound or submission.
Israel Adesanya defeats Alex Pereira Result: Adesanya by KO (8-4)
This may seem like a weird thing to say, but I just think Izzy is better at MMA. I think he's a better striker and we mostly saw that last time. He was on his way to a 49-46 win until he got knocked out. He almost finished Pereira as well, so Izzy can finish this fight too. Izzy has the path to grapple and he really should use it. I don't know if his ego will let him, but that would be the easiest way for him to win this fight. With Pereira, it's all about the power. He's just waiting to land the left hook and no one can stand up to it. He's an equally elite kick boxer, but I think Izzy is just slightly better. The one thing that I think gives Pereira a real chance of getting the knockout again is that Izzy is too willing to go backwards. If he puts his back on the cage again, Pereira could contain him and find the knockout blow again. If he doesn't, Izzy probably wins a decision. I prefer Izzy slightly at space and then he has the potential to grapple here if he wants.
Bets to consider: Adesanya ML -128
I just have to think Izzy is ok in this fight. Pereira's path is pretty straight forward. He just has to stay patient and land the big shot. If he doesn't do that, I'm not sure he wins a decision. I think Izzy can low kick and jab his way to a decision and could probably win some rounds based on top time too.
This was a bit rushed at the end, so that last few may not be as good as you have come to expect. Thanks for reading, have a good day, and enjoy the card. Official bets are below.
Official Bets
Sam Hughes ML .5 units at +220 to win 1.10 units
Steve Garcia ML .5 units at +152 to win .76 units
Calvillo/Godinez FDNGTD .5 units at +205 to win .51 units
Karl Williams ITD .75 units at +125 to win .94 units
Gerald Meerschaert ML .5 units at +164 to win .82 units
Christian Rodriguez ML .5 units at +198 to win .99 units
Kevin Holland by KO 1 unit at +210 to win 2.10 units
Israel Adesanya ML 2 units at -132 to win 1.52 units
Net Gain/Loss
Event Total: + 5.47 units
Previous Year to Date Total: - 3.04 units
Updated Year to Date Total: + 2.43 units
UPDATE:
Weekly Record: 8 - 4
Previous Year to Date Record: 81 - 39 - 3
Updated Year to Date Record: 89 - 43 - 3
2022 Winning Percentage: 62.919%
2021 Winning Percentage: 60.000%
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