We had a down week for the first time in about a month, but we'll look to get back on track with a less than exciting night in the UFC. Luckily though, combat sports will be pretty hot this weekend. I'm typing this up during Bellator 294 and we have 295 tomorrow going head to head with the UFC as well as Tank Davis vs Ryan Garcia. I would like to post more often like I used to, but even getting one in during the week has been pretty rough as I've been consistently working overtime the last month or so. If we have one thing going for us, this UFC card isn't very long, so at least it won't overstay it's welcome. I'm really excited for Patchy Mix vs Raufeon Stotts and obviously Tank vs Garcia, but I'll definitely have the UFC on as well. Let's get to it. Just to be clear, my picks will be in the bolded font, and the real results will be listed next to it in italics after the fight is official. Official bets will be at the bottom. Bets are now being officially tracked at BetMMA as well.
Danaa Batgerel defeats Brady Hiestand Result: Hiestand by KO (0-1)
First fight of the night is actually a decent one. In general, I think there are a lot of things to like about Brady Hiestand, but he feels more like untapped potential than finish product right now. He's young, he's athletic, he's already a pretty decent grappler, and he's aggressive. I just don't think his wrestling is amazing and the rest of his game isn't up to speed enough to give himself a chance. On the feet, his striking just isn't great and his defense is very porous. On top of that, I don't really trust his durability. Hiestand didn't look great in his last fight, which really should have been a good matchup for him. Danaa isn't a world beater or anything, but I give him a small edge here. He's probably going to get taken down, especially early, but I do think he will be able to work back to his feet. If he does, it really should be one way traffic. Danaa is a much better striker with more volume and more power. With Hiestand's lack of defense, it sort of feels like the knockout is in play. I guess Brady could just absolutely blanket him and get 10 minutes of top time, but if he doesn't, I think Danaa will be able to win rounds based on big damaging shots.
Bets to consider: Batgerel ML -144
It's not that I don't get the people betting Hiestand because I do to an extend. Danaa isn't a great defensive grappler and Brady is going to come out and aggressively pursue takedowns. If he can get them consistently, he could very well win a decision. On the other side, if he can't get them and Danaa forces the fight to be standing for 15 minutes, then that clearly goes his way. The reason I lean Danaa is that I think he probably wins the fight more often if we get a competitive fight. If Hiestand is getting some takedowns, but Danaa is getting up and we get 7.5 minutes of striking and 7.5 minutes of grappling, I think Danaa is going be able to have the bigger moments and take rounds. I also put way more stock into Danaa finishing this fight than Hiestand. -144 isn't great, but it's not bad either. If it got back to around -130 I would probably take a shot at it.
Francis Marshall defeats William Gomis Result: Gomis by decision (0-2)
This is kind of a strange fight. A lot of the things I'm going to say about Marshall are similar to what I just said about Hiestand. He's young, aggressive, and a pretty solid grappler. Marshall also lacks defense on the feet. The differences are that I think Marshall has good cardio and he has much better output while standing. I don't think he's necessarily amazing at anything, but he is decent enough everywhere with pace and cardio. That's a combination of skills that is going to win someone a lot of fights. I'm not super high on Gomis and even if I was, I don't think this is the matchup for him. His grappling isn't poor, but I think Marshall is better. I really don't expect Gomis to be hitting takedowns here. Marshall's standing defense isn't anything great, but at the same time, Gomis doesn't just doesn't put out the volume to really make him pay for it. He's the much bigger and longer fighter, but he's not the type of striker who can really keep the fight at his range. I just don't really see it for Gomis in this one. I think he just gets out worked on both volume and aggression in the grappling.
Bets to consider: O2.5 rounds -150
-150 isn't a great number or anything, but it's ok. I really don't see much of a path to a finish here. I guess Gomis could connect and knock Marshall out, but I don't think he has other worldly power and he just doesn't have the output. Marshall could finish based on accumulated damage and just overwhelm a tired Gomis late, but that doesn't feel especially likely either. Marshall should be able to grind his way to a decision in this one. I'm definitely not looking to bet him at -210 though.
Mohammed Usman defeats Junior Tafa Result: Usman by decision (1-2)
This fight will probably end up looking like a mess. I can't say I'm particularly high on either of these guys, but I think Usman's skillset lends itself to more consistent performances. Tafa is extremely inexperienced and even the MMA fights he does have are just extremely low level. He has a kickboxing background, but I don't think he's particularly technical in that regard. He has very little grappling experience as well. He's just sort of big and powerful while being willing to engage in the pocket. His defense also lacks a little. Usman isn't someone that is looking like a future champion, but I think the style dynamics work in his favor. He really should grapple Tafa and if he does, he would likely dominate him. I don't see Tafa stopping his takedowns and he won't have anything for him once it hits the mat. Usman isn't a great striker on the feet and I don't favor him there, but he's not worlds behind either. Usman is low output, but he has power and Tafa has no defense. Usman gets hit too much as well, so if Tafa connects, he could put him out as well. However, with the massive grappling and cardio edge for Usman, I have to lean his way.
Bets to consider: Usman ML -104
This fight is nearly impossible to bet. While the style dynamics do favor Usman, he's just too unreliable. He hasn't even really been attempting takedowns in his recent fights and I wouldn't feel good about betting him here without knowing he's actually going to take the route he needs. I just don't want to bet Tafa either. If he doesn't nuke Usman early, his best case scenario is a sloppy split decision. Tafa probably has the finishing upside though. Usman has the grappling upside and if this fight is one sided, it's likely in his favor. It's hard to predict the O/U 1.5 as well just because of the power and lack of defense on both sides. Just save your money.
Karol Rosa defeats Norma Dumont Result: Dumont by decision (1-3)
This is a fight that I've gone back and forth on. Ultimately, I think Rosa is just a little more reliable and consistent, so I have to go with her in this one. I like Dumont more than the general consensus in the betting community, but I just think Rosa is better. Dumont is a legitimate featherweight and that gives her an advantage here. Her physicality combined with her speed and power is hard to deal with for a lot of women. She's had some grappling success in the past and she's not awful there, but I'm really not convinced she's all that great either. Rosa's struggles have come against grappling heavy styles and her moving up a division against the larger Dumont is a real concern. If she doesn't get taken down and held down the entire fight, I do think he will be fine. She's the more skilled fighter. She's the better striker with better output and much better cardio. It's just a matter of if she stays standing or not. Even if she goes down early, I think she can win the latter part of the fight on volume and potentially even finish Norma. It's a weird fight and I don't really have a super hot sizzling take on it.
Bets to consider: Rosa ML -102
I just think I would rather play Rosa in this one, but probably not at this number. If we see this number get out towards +120 then at that point I probably would make the move though. There's just too many questions with the weight and physicality of Dumont at featherweight that make me pause even though I do believe Rosa is the better fighter in terms of a complete skill set.
Montel Jackson defeats Rani Yahya Result: Jackson by KO (2-3)
I sort of think this fight might be interesting, at least for a little bit. Rani Yahya is one of the last of a dying breed in specialists. His BJJ is as good as it gets, but especially in his current state, it's really all he has. His striking just isn't there in terms of technical ability, power, or volume. His wrestling is ok, but it's nothing special either. He'll be at a massive physicality disadvantage in this one and his cardio lacks at this point as well. I don't doubt that maybe he could get a takedown early and maybe even get Jackson into a compromising position, but if he doesn't within the first 4 or so minutes, he's really in a bad spot. Jackson is just the kind of fighter that Rani doesn't need to be matched up against right now. He's much younger, much bigger, and a freak athlete. His size and explosion for the weight class really should be enough. I have questions about him in the long run, but he really should be fine in this one. His output isn't great and he's a little too accepting of doing what his opponent wants him to at times, but I just don't really see how Rani gets it done unless he can take him down on the first or second attempt.
Bets to consider: Yahya by submission +950
This is a pass spot. Jackson is way too big of a favorite to have any interest in him. You can't bet a low output guy at -600 when his opponent is the more dangerous grappler. You can't really bet Rani either though knowing the state that he's in. If he had better cardio, I may take a shot, but he just doesn't. Rani by submission at +950 would be the way as that is really his main path, but that is only a dart throw. There's no real play to make here.
Ricky Glenn defeats Christos Giagos Result: Giagos by KO (2-4)
This fight could be interesting, but I actually think it's a decent spot for Ricky Glenn. He's not an amazing fighter or anything, but he's about as reliable as it gets. He's a fine striker with solid output and decent defensive grappling. He's been out grappled at times, including recently against Grant Dawson, but I don't think Giagos brings that level of wrestling. If Giagos isn't going to hold Glenn down for long stretches, I think he just ends up being behind. Giagos is just an ok grappler and his striking is fine, but he's low output. He's somewhat dangerous while he's fresh, but once he starts to slow down, it should be all Ricky Glenn. I think we may see a moderately competitive round one and then Glenn really takes over in rounds 2 and 3. Maybe Giagos finds the early finish, but if he doesn't, I think Glenn wins this fight at a pretty high rate.
Bets to consider: Glenn ML -148
This is one play that I actually feel good about. I just think Ricky Glenn is probably closer to a -200 favorite or so. At least -180. I think playing him here is more than justified. Giagos does have the tools to make it interesting early, but the cardio edge really is enough for me to favor Glenn pretty heavily.
Matthew Semelsberger defeats Jeremiah Wells Result: Wells by decision (2-5)
This is kind of a strange fight that leaves me unsure what to think. I do think I prefer Semelsberger, but it's not something I feel strongly about. I think he's a better striker with more consistent volume and better cardio. That's really what I'm relying on here. His defensive grappling has looked shaky at best though and that's what worries me. Wells is the more dangerous fighter in most aspects though. His power on the feet, especially early, is very real. Semelsberger doesn't seem to have a durability problem, but you can't rule out a knockout entirely. I don't really trust Wells to hold up cardio wise, especially in comparison to Semelsberger, but he will still carry some of that pop. The big thing for Wells is his ground game. I have the sneaking suspicion that he could really dominate from top if he gets there. His wrestling lacks behind his overall ground game, but with how poor Semelsberger has looked there, it may only take one or two takedowns to decide this one. I have to go with Semelsberger just based on the cardio and output aspect, but I don't feel great about it.
Bets to consider: Semelsberger ML -106
Another spot that is really hard to bet. Having the under set at only 1.5 rounds really eliminates that from consideration. If Semelsberger crept out into the plus money territory, maybe I would take the shot there. His defensive grappling has just looked not great recently against grapplers who are probably worse than Wells. That gives Wells some serious upside if he decides to go for takedowns and is able to do so without gassing himself out. That's a lot of question marks on both sides though, so just another pass for me.
Iasmin Lucindo defeats Brogan Walker Result: Lucindo by decision (3-5)
This is a fight that I just don't really have an opinion on. I just don't really rate Walker's skillset all that highly in any regard. I think she's a mediocre striker in the bottom third of her division and she isn't a grappler really at all, especially defensively. I'm not nearly as high on Lucindo as a lot of people are here, but I just kind of think her aggression and potential to grapple is enough. Neither fighter is good defensively, but while Walker will be throwing uninspiring volume, Lucindo will actually be pushing a pace. I don't think Lucindo is a great grappler by any means, but if someone was going to be landing takedowns, it would probably be her. I don't really have much more to say than that. Lucindo is more aggressive and really shouldn't be in danger anywhere.
Betting thoughts:
This sort of feels like Ed Herman last week, a mistake I will try not to make here. On one hand, does Walker probably make the fight more competitive than it is currently being lined as? Probably. However, does Walker actually win this fight at any significant clip? Probably not. After losing money to Zak Cummings last week, I have no interest in doing the same this week. Betting Walker at this point would be more based on Lucindo just not being a -350 caliber of fighter than anything about Walker's game or the style dynamics of the fight. I'm trying to do less of that this year.
Bobby Green defeats Jared Gordon Result: No Contest
This is a decent fight, but I like Bobby Green here. Jared Gordon is perpetually underrated and it's mostly because he just lacks a real high end skill or trait. He is, however, very well rounded and doesn't have a clear weakness. He's a solid wrestler and a decent striker with good cardio that he uses to keep a high work rate. He just lacks the really high level BJJ to be dangerous on the mat and doesn't have the athletic traits to generate the power to get a lot of knockouts. The lack of a danger component is sort of what caps his ceiling. That's really what the difference is in this one for me. Bobby is just going to have a significant speed and quickness advantage both with his strikes and movement. I wouldn't be completely surprised if Gordon could get a takedown or two, but Bobby is pretty solid defensively, so even if he does, he probably gets back up. On the feet, the hand speed difference is going to be very noticeable and Green is just the better striker to begin with. Gordon sort of has the reputation of not being the most durable guy in the world, but I'm not so sure that's the case. He's not Max Holloway, but I think his chin is mostly fine.
Bets to consider: Green by decision +100
While Bobby could knock Jared out, it's not like Bobby Green is known for having great power. He should be able to land when he wants, but we know Bobby is going to mess around a little bit too. I don't think Gordon is chinny and he's going to be in good shape as always. Green is going to touch him up from the outside, but I think this one gets to decision way more often than not. There could be some grappling going on as well which will only increase the chances of going the distance and I don't doubt that Bobby could grapple some as well if he really wanted to.
Brad Tavares defeats Bruno Silva Result: Silva by KO (3-6)
Like most Brad Tavares fights, this one is kind of strange. I like Brad more than most, but he just lacks like one or two skills that would take him from a really solid fighter to a really great one. I think he could probably wrestle his way to a win here if he wanted to, but he's never really done it before, so I don't expect him to start now. With that said, Tavares is a good kick boxer, but he doesn't have knockout power and he doesn't push a pace. That leaves you with a moderately technical, but middling output kick boxer with no grappling upside. At the same time, Silva isn't a grappler and he wouldn't take Tavares down even if he was in all likelihood. Silva has more power, but Tavares doesn't have a durability problem and he's more technical. I think Brad should be ok here, but like most of his fights, it's probably going to be a pretty close decision, which Tavares has made a career of winning.
Bets to consider: Fight goes the distance +120
This line just kind of seems off to me. I get that Silva has power, but Brad Tavares isn't a guy who has ever really had durability concerns and even as he ages seems to be mostly intact in that regard. Tavares isn't really a finisher and Silva doesn't have a durability problem either. This seems pretty destined to be a medium to low output kick boxing match that makes it to a decision a majority of the time in my estimation.
Curtis Blaydes defeats Sergei Pavlovich Result: Pavlovich by KO (3-7)
I really think Blaydes handles business in this one. Pavlovich is sort of the stereotypical heavyweight. He's absolutely huge and has massive power. If he doesn't land a big overhand or hook, I think his game is pretty ordinary. We saw him get bulldozed by Alistair Overeem not too far back and while I can only assume Pavlovich has improved since then, I doubt it's enough. Improving from what we saw to being able to stop takedowns from Blaydes would be legitimately stunning. Pavlovich could just come forward and nuke Curtis in 12 seconds and while it's possible, I think that's really the only way he wins. If this fight makes it to the middle of the first round, I think Blaydes is probably already on top and doing work. I really don't think it's out of the realm of possibility for Blaydes to out strike Pavlovich either. Sergei isn't particularly technical and Blaydes does some good things on the feet. When he is letting it flow, he looks just fine there. The path of least resistance is the takedowns though and he could finish him early or late. Pavlovich looked lost on bottom against Overeem, so Blaydes may only need one takedown, but even if he doesn't finish him instantly, Pavlovich is likely to gas out and just get finished later on.
Bets to consider: Blaydes ML -156
Curtis Blaydes is simply a better fighter. He should be at least -200 and probably closer to -300 if we're being completely honest, at least in my estimation. Pavlovich essentially has to knock him out in the first 90 seconds of the fight. It's not that it is a physical impossibility, especially with someone with that kind of power, but every other aspect of the fight is in Blaydes favor. He's faster, more technical, a significantly better grappler, and has better cardio. Much like always, Blaydes has a strange reputation for being chinny, but it really doesn't make sense. He got doctor stopped against Francis once, TKO'd by Francis a second time where he was still getting back up, and got put out cold when he ducked into an uppercut from Derrick Lewis. I really don't see that as someone with a chin issue, but that's just me.
That's it for me on this one. Enjoy all of the fights this weekend and have a good day. Official bets are below.
Official Bets
Ricky Glenn ML 1.64 unit at -164 to win 1 unit
Bobby Green by decision 1 unit at +100 to win 1 unit
Tavares/Silva FGTD 1 unit at +120 to win 1.20 units
Curtis Blaydes ML 3 units at -156 to win 1.92 units
Net Gain/Loss
Event Total: - 5.64 units
Previous Year to Date Total: + .26 units
Updated Year to Date Total: - 5.38 units
UPDATE:
Weekly Record: 3 - 7
Previous Year to Date Record: 95 - 51 - 3
Updated Year to Date Record: 98 - 58 - 3
2022 Winning Percentage: 62.919%
2021 Winning Percentage: 60.000%
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