Now that we're back in the win column, we can focus on building a streak. We're coming off of a decent PPV and we have a very solid offering from this Fight Night. We also get it at a decent time of day. The main event is a little weird, but the card overall is pretty interesting. I'm not going to waste any more time. Just to be clear, my picks will be in the bolded font, and the real results will be listed next to it in italics after the fight is official. Official bets will be at the bottom. Bets are now being officially tracked at BetMMA as well.
Jessica-Rose Clark defeats Tainara Lisboa Result: Lisboa by submission (0-1)
This fight may end up being a bit of a messy one, but it's not horrible to kick off the afternoon. Lisboa is making her UFC debut and I'm not really in a position to make any significant conclusions about her game. She's only had 7 mma fights and she's 32 years old. She seems like a decent enough striker, but the rest of her game is a huge question mark. Her grappling doesn't seem to be particularly great and that her level of competition in general leaves a lot to be desired. Clark isn't a future champion by any means, but I think she has the skills to win this fight. She's been pretty reliable to shoot for takedowns over her last handful of fights and if she does that here, she should win. She'll probably be at a striking disadvantage, but I have to assume she can get Lisboa down and once she does, she can probably ride out rounds on top. We don't have a lot of evidence as to what Lisboa looks like on bottom besides one fight of her instantly giving her back and getting submitted. I know Clark is inconsistent and has been submitted in the past, but seeing her get submitted here would be legitimately surprising to me. It's only a slight lean, but I think I like Clark.
Bets to consider: Clark ML -105
I'm not necessarily super excited to bet JRC here, but I think her being an underdog in this spot is a bit odd. Like I said before, Lisboa is making her UFC debut in her 8th mma fight at 32 years old while having fought very little in terms of competition. Clark isn't amazing, but she has fought and beaten better women while having much more experience. Clark has been grappling heavy and I suspect that Lisboa isn't all that great there. I wouldn't go big on her, but it seems like most categories favor Clark. It wouldn't stun me if Lisboa stuffed all the shots and beat her at range, but I think it's equally as likely that Clark can take her down and submit her in 2 minutes after Lisboa gives her back.
Gabe Green defeats Bryan Battle Result: Battle by KO (0-2)
This fight should actually be pretty cool, but it's hard to pick. Both guys have a lot of the same strengths and weaknesses, so it makes for an interesting one. Both men are going to want to stand and will throw a lot of volume. Green is going to want to pressure and Battle will have a reach advantage. Neither man defends strikes very well either. The reason that I go with Green is twofold. The first is that I think Green has a bit more power or he at least throws with more power. Secondarily is that I think Green is a bit more durable. Green also is the more experienced fighter, but I'm not putting as much stock into that in this fight as I do with some others. It should be a pretty fun and competitive fight, but I prefer Green ever so slightly.
Betting Thoughts:
As things currently stand, I don't really see a spot to attack this fight. The money line situation is more or less right to me. Green being a small favorite makes sense to me. To me, you kind of have to wait for some movement. If Green gets out into the -150 range, that's when you can probably start looking to play Battle. If he comes back down to around -120 or better, that's when I would jump on Green. I think this fight goes over, but -180 has me uninterested. The amount of damage these guys take makes it too risky to play an over at that number. I'm still not really interested in an under though. Just a pass spot as things currently stand.
Ji Yeon Kim defeats Mandy Bohm Result: Bohm by decision (0-3)
This is a bit of a strange one. Kim has been extremely unlucky in her last few fights and she probably deserves a better record than she has. She's not the most amazing fighter you'll ever see, but I have to imagine that she is pretty much covering Bohm everywhere. Kim isn't amazing, but she's not completely awful either. Her striking is ok and her power is requisite. Neither woman is going to grapple here, but I assume Kim would be better there as well. This is the only part of running this blog that I really don't like, but I have to be honest. I really just don't think Mandy Bohm is a UFC level fighter, even at the bottom of the division. She just really doesn't have the skillset. She's not a poor technical striker, but that's really her best quality. She's low output on the feet and I think that is due, at least in part, to the fact that her cardio isn't great. She doesn't have power and she's a poor grappler as well. I also don't really trust her durability. I don't say it to be a dick or imply that I would do any better because I certainly wouldn't, but it kind of just is what it is.
Bets to consider: Kim ML -205
The idea of betting Kim at over -200 does make me uncomfortable. However, I just really have a hard time seeing her lose this one. I really don't think her being a lot closer to -300 is as ridiculous as it sounds on the surface. It wouldn't be a large play, but I really do think playing Kim here is justifiable.
Natan Levy defeats Pete Rodriguez Result: cancelled
This fight is very likely to be a mess, but for better or for worse, I don't expect it to last all that long. I don't think either of these guys are even in the middle third of the division, but I guess this fight may be competitive. On a skill by skill basis, it feels like Levy should have him covered, but it's near impossible to actually trust him. At the same time, Rodriguez is very clearly low level. His striking isn't necessarily poor, but it's not special either. He has some power, but that's really the extent of it. We have no idea what his grappling is like, but given his level of inexperience, I don't have high hopes. We've also never seen him fight a full round of mma, so his cardio is an unknown. We know Levy's cardio isn't very good and his grappling is sort of mid at best. I think the most likely outcome is that we see Levy take Rodriguez down and then either submit him or just pound him out. However, I don't really like Levy's defense on the inside and if Rodriguez just rushes him, he could probably knock him out. I guess I have to go with Levy, but I don't feel good about it.
Bets to consider: Rodriguez ML +205
This one is tough to bet. Natan Levy being -250 in an mma fight against anyone who is a real fighter is really a stretch. He just really doesn't have the skill set. His grappling isn't good enough to truly smother someone and even if it is, his cardio isn't good enough for me to assume he could do it for 15 minutes. On the feet, he's vulnerable and I don't trust his durability. I can't strongly advocate for a play on Rodriguez for all the reasons I've already mentioned, but it's certainly more palatable than Levy -250.
Cody Stamann defeats Douglas Silva de Andrade Result: Andrade by decision (0-4)
This is kind of a weird fight, but another one that should end up being fairly competitive. This is sort of a tough one for me to breakdown because there's very little that I feel that I have a solid grasp of how it will play out. On the feet, I think Cody is probably the better striker. He should have slightly better output and he'll be more technical. Andrade is going to have the better power and he'll be faster. Stamann is both the better and more willing grappler, but Andrade does stop takedowns fairly well and should be explosive enough to get up when taken down. This fight really comes down to the pace for me. If Stamann can force the fight to be at a high pace, he will be able to force Andrade to slow down over the second half where he can take over. If Andrade can slow things down, then he will give himself a chance. I think I just slightly prefer Stamann's well roundedness and cardio, but it wouldn't surprise me if Andrade were just too athletic. He could stuff takedowns, explode up when he does go down, and do enough damage while at range to force Stamann to be more tentative. It's a tough one for me, personally.
Bets to consider: Stamann ML -144
This isn't really a number I'm looking to jump on, but I could see it looking really good in retrospect. Stamann hasn't looked great in recent times, but this does feel like a fight where he should do fairly well. He's just been a much better fighter against better competition over the long haul. I probably need the number to come in a bit, but if it does, I may make the move.
Karl Williams defeats Chase Sherman Result: Williams by decision (1-4)
We're getting this fight rebooked from a few weeks back, so I'll put that breakdown here:
" This is about as bad a matchup as you can find for Sherman outside of ranked fighters. Sherman gets a lot of shit from fans and while a lot of what people say isn't completely wrong, a lot of it is also unnecessarily disrespectful. Sherman is a guy who really needs his opponent to give him the exact fight he wants. Sherman isn't a poor striker by any means, but he needs someone to stand in front of him. He has power and decent low kicks, but that's sort of it for him. His cardio really doesn't go more than a round and his grappling is very poor. He just doesn't stop takedowns and while he can work his way up, he just doesn't have the gas in the tank to do it more than a few times. Williams is a wrestler and he's going to go after it. He's going to shoot takedowns and once he gets Sherman down a couple of times, he should be able to do whatever he wants. As long as Williams doesn't get knocked out in the first few minutes of the fight, he should be fine.
Bets to consider: Williams ITD +110
I get that Karl Williams isn't necessarily a prolific finisher, but he really should be able to here. Sherman has been submitted by much worse grapplers in the not too distant past. Sherman just isn't a guy who's cardio allows him to make it to decisions very often, one way or another. Williams is going to be on top for long stretches and should be able to posture up land some shots after a round. I've seen some people wanting to bet Sherman and while the number is big, it's not for me. It is heavyweight MMA and that comes with a lot of variance, but this isn't the fight for that in my opinion. "
I don't really have a whole lot to add onto what I already said. Williams ITD has moved to -115, but I'm probably still going to be on it. Sherman just doesn't make it to decisions. Williams isn't Charles Oliveira looking for submissions, but against Sherman you really don't have to be.
Court McGee defeats Matt Brown Result: Brown by KO (1-5)
This fight may have been a lot better about 8 years ago, but it's not a bad one now either. Obviously, we have a matchup between two guys coming to the end of their careers and both have diminishing skill sets. At this stage, I think McGee is just more equipped to win this fight. He still has good cardio and he is still going to push a pace. He is going to attempt a high number of both takedowns and strikes. I think that is really the reason I'm behind him here. Brown has never been a tremendous grappler or had tremendous cardio and that seems to be getting worse as he ages. His durability is also fading on him. He still does have power though and we've seen Court's durability start to slip as well. If Brown doesn't get the knockout early, I think Court probably takes him down and really puts it on him after the first 5 minutes.
Bets to consider: U2.5 rounds +136
I can't really bet Court at -220, but the under here is interesting to me. I just think all of the circumstances dictate better chances of a finish than the number we're getting. Brown's win equity is mostly by finish, especially early. His power is still there and we know McGee isn't nearly as durable as he used to be. Brown very well could find the big shot that puts McGee out. On the other side, it's not that McGee is a finisher, but he will have the opportunity. Brown isn't the most durable guy anymore either. McGee is going to bring the fight and push the pace enough that he could just get a finish based on amount of activity. He could just melt Brown late. He should have enough top time to get off a lot of damage. I wouldn't go heavy on it, but I think this is a number worth playing.
Alex Morono defeats Tim Means Result: Morono by submission (1-6)
This is actually a pretty interesting fight. I think you have to favor Morono, but it's not as clear to me as it is to some others. The difference is just that Morono has generally been looking pretty good over his last handful of fights where Means is pretty clearly declining. With that said, I don't think the gap is really all that wide. Offensively, Means isn't what he used to be, but he's still mostly there. He is still a moderately technical striker and throws with good volume. He's not an amazing wrestler, but he's a decent enough one that I think he could incorporate it here. The big thing for Means is that he's just not physically what he used to be. He's a bit slower with his strikes and his durability is very clearly fading. With Morono, he has looked better in the last couple of years, but I don't think he's significantly better. He's probably a worse technical striker, but he will have more power and he's probably faster at this stage as well. He doesn't stop takedowns well though and that does concern me some. Morono doesn't have a history of being especially durable in his own right and I think his defense is probably worse too. I do favor Morono just because of recent trends relating to their ages, but Means probably makes this very competitive minute to minute.
Bets to consider: Means ML +184
Means isn't the fighter he once was, that much is clear. However, I don't think he's nearly as shot as this line suggests. On the feet, I think this fight is probably pretty competitive exchange to exchange. Means is probably a bit better on volume with Morono having the better power. Means has the potential to grapple as well and while he's not going to wipe him out on the mat, Means does at least attempt takedowns and Morono doesn't stop them well. Morono could very well knock Means out, but if he doesn't, Means won't look anywhere near +184. Over -200 just sort of feels more like a best case scenario for Morono than something likely.
Carlos Ulberg defeats Ihor Potieria Result: Ulberg by KO (2-6)
This fight is really something else. Ihor really just leaves a lot to be desired. He's aggressive and he's got some power, but that's really about it. He's not a grappler, I suspect his cardio isn't great, and his defense isn't that great standing. With that said, I'm not nearly as high on Ulberg as a lot of people are. He's technical on the feet and he's got some power of his own. He could probably grapple in this one as well if he really wanted to. I just don't trust his defense on the feet. I also don't really think he has the best cardio ever if someone is really going to push him. I think he should have Ihor covered, but I'm a bit wishy washy on what exactly his future holds.
Bets to consider: U1.5 rounds -134
I hate betting 1.5 round totals, especially under, but this sort of feels like the way to attack this one. Ihor is going to come out hot. He's aggressive and will pursue the knockout. I think Ulberg's defense is questionable enough that he could get clipped and go down. If he doesn't, he probably hurts Ihor on the counters pretty badly and finds the finish of his own. I struggle to bet an under 1.5 at minus money, but if there was ever a time, this may be one of them.
Ian Garry defeats Daniel Rodriguez Result: Garry by KO (3-6)
This is an actual good fight. This is a very interesting matchup. Garry is a very solid technical striker with real power and speed. He's going to have to let that be at the forefront of this fight if he wants to succeed. Otherwise, we're going to be in store for a pretty competitive 15 minutes. Garry has shown that he can grapple and he would probably be smart to at least try to mix it in here. Rodriguez is pretty clearly the best fighter he's ever fought. He's a good striker with good volume. He's going to bring the fight and with Garry's defensive holes, he should be able to land consistently. Rodriguez doesn't have great defense either though and he will be at every athletic disadvantage. Garry is the rightful favorite here, but I struggle to see how this fight doesn't end up competitive unless Garry comes out with a heavy wrestling gameplan or Rodriguez is just over the hill.
Bets to consider: Rodriguez ML +245
I'm not an Ian Garry hater, but this just seems kind of off. We've seen Garry have some not great moments or stretches against Jordan Williams, Gabe Green, and Song Kenan. Daniel Rodriguez is significantly better than all of them. Like I said, Garry should be a favorite and maybe even a decent sized one, but -300 seems pretty out there. Garry will be faster, probably has more power, and has the potential to grapple, but I still don't see how that gets him past -180. Unless Rodriguez age has just caught up to him and he can't take a shot anymore, I don't see how we don't get a competitive fight. Both guys are high output with poor defense. I'll be on the +245 side of that every time, especially when that is the side with more experience and more high level experience.
Anthony Smith defeats Johnny Walker Result: Walker by decision (3-7)
I'm an Anthony Smith fan and I'm not going to hide that, but I really think he should win this fight somewhat consistently. Like always, Walker's best qualities are that he's huge and powerful. Outside of that, his skills aren't necessarily poor, but they're not where they need to be to compete against the top 10 of the division with consistency. Smith should have an advantage everywhere from a technical standpoint. He's a better striker, especially in close. He's also a significantly better grappler. He doesn't stop takedowns well, but if Walker takes him down, I honestly think Smith submits him. Walker is long and powerful enough that he could knock Smith out, but if he doesn't, I don't know where else he turns. Smith has been pretty durable through his UFC run, even as he's aged and Walker has been the opposite. Walker also has very little cardio and Anthony Smith has pretty good cardio for his size. Give me Anthony Smith.
Bets to consider: Smith ML -108
I just don't really see how we're getting this fight lined like this. I just don't quite get how we're at the point where this is a 50/50 fight. I get Walker is dangerous and I'm not dismissing it, but just power only goes so far. He's not a technical striker, he doesn't have good output, and he doesn't have good cardio. Smith is the better striker while being more durable and having a better submission game. Whatever odds you give Walker to finish, I feel like Smith has an equally good chance to finish plus he has virtually all of the win equity if this fight goes to a decision due to the cardio dynamic. That doesn't make a 50/50 fight to me.
Jailton Almeida defeats Jairzinho Rozenstruik Result: Almeida by submission (4-7)
This is an odd fight in a sense that it feels pretty binary in nature. If Almeida gets a takedown, he probably gets on top of Jairzinho and either bludgeons him from mount or submits him with little to no resistance. If he doesn't and the fight stays standing, Rozenstruik probably picks Almeida apart and knocks him out. That's really all there is to this fight. I don't trust Almeida's gas, but I don't trust Jairzinho in that regard either. In general, I think Jairzinho probably has better takedown defense than the consensus opinion, but I don't think that means he's going to stop them in this one necessarily. I think the most likely outcome is that Almeida takes him down and then finishes the fight in whatever method he decides. However, if he's forced to stand for any extended minutes, Jairzinho is going to punish him on the counters very, very badly. I just don't really think the fight stays standing long enough for us to see that.
Bets to consider: Rozenstruik ML +405
I mean, this is really the only side. You can't bet Almeida at over -500 when he only has 1 way to win. At the same time, I can't say I'm overly tempted to play Jairzinho, even at this inflated number. I would much rather have his side, but this doesn't feel like the spot to make a play on this card. All the lines are kind of strange for this fight. Just a pass for me.
That's it for me on this one. Thanks for reading and enjoy the card. Official bets are below.
Official Bets
Jessica-Rose Clark ML .75 units at -102 to win .74 units
Karl Williams ITD .75 units at -115 to win .65 units
McGee/Brown U2.5 rounds .5 units at +134 to win .67 units
Tim Means ML .5 units at +184 to win .92 units
Daniel Rodriguez ML .5 units at +245 to win 1.23 units
Anthony Smith ML 2.16 units at -108 to win 2 units
Net Gain/Loss
Event Total: - 3.99 units
Previous Year to Date Total: - 5.87 units
Updated Year to Date Total: - 9.86 units
UPDATE:
Weekly Record: 4 - 7
Previous Year to Date Record: 109 - 68 - 3
Updated Year to Date Record: 113 - 75 - 3
2022 Winning Percentage: 62.919%
2021 Winning Percentage: 60.000%
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