Well, last week certainly didn't go as planned. I've been doing a lot of thinking recently and I clearly need to adjust my betting approach. I've hit a bit of a tough stretch in general recently, which is going to happen, but the bets were still hit and miss even when my picks were doing well. I still think I could do a better job of betting favorites and minus money props, so maybe there will be more opportunities to attack those spots going forward. Anyways, we're really in the midst of what is likely to be the worst stretch of the UFC calendar. We've had some pretty rough events over the last handful of weeks and we have a few more to go before we get to July. At least when the PPVs are good, you can sort of justify the weaker Fight Nights, but when the PPVs are thin, these bad Fight Night cards are a lot tougher to deal with. July is on the horizon though and that's when things are really going to pick up. This isn't the worst event of all time, but it's not a great one either. There's a lot of weird fights on this one so I guess that could be a recipe for a mixed bag of results. Just to be clear, my picks will be in the bolded font, and the real results will be listed next to it in italics after the fight is official. Official bets will be at the bottom. Bets are now being officially tracked at BetMMA as well.
Takashi Sato defeats Themba Gorimbo Result: Gorimbo by decision (0-1)
I'm really not sure what I should think of this fight. I don't think Sato is really all that bad of a fighter skill for skill, but his talents just don't blend in a way that consistently wins fights. His striking is fine and he has power, but that's really the extent of his strengths. His grappling has looked not great, but I don't think he has the worst takedown defense ever or anything like that. Gorimbo really isn't much of a wrestler, so while he could have success on the mat, I'm not really convinced that he gets it there. On the feet, Gorimbo is going to put more out there, but he is going to be at a technical disadvantage. Sato has minimal output in a somewhat alarming way, but I think the skill gap at range is enough that he should be able to punish Gorimbo on the counters pretty consistently. I won't be surprised even a bit of Gorimbo ends up controlling this fight with grappling, but I just don't trust his wrestling enough to believe he grounds the fight consistently. I guess I lean Sato, but I don't feel good about it.
Bets to consider: Sato ML +100
I don't have a ton of interest in this fight as it currently stands. I think at the current price of +100, that's where I start to monitor the number. If we get a little bit more movement and Sato drifts closer to +120 or better, that's when I would start to have to really consider it. Both of these fighters path to a clear victory feels kind of thin, so we're probably going to get a messy, relatively close fight. The fight being lined competitively probably makes sense and unless we get some movement, I'm content to just pass on it.
Natalia Silva defeats Victoria Leonardo Result: Silva by KO (1-1)
This is a fight that doesn't really need to happen and thus I don't have a ton to say about it. In short, Silva is just a better fighter and Leonardo has very little path to victory in my mind. I guess Leonardo could control this fight in the clinch? I don't think Silva is an amazing grappler and maybe she'll get exposed there one day, but that isn't going to be Saturday. Leonardo just isn't the level of wrestler or grappler that is going to be able do much. Silva has done at least somewhat well against better grapplers already in her career. On the feet, this will be one way traffic. Silva is going to pick Leonardo apart and beat her up at space. This should be Silva's fight and she really should finish it.
Bets to consider: Silva ITD -170
You can't bet Silva at -1000, but I also have no interest in playing Leonardo even at these inflated prices. Now, you could go with the under 2.5 and get a better number at around -140, but in this case, I'm willing to trade the 30-ish cents for the extra 2.5 minutes in this case. Silva could finish this fight late and Leonardo's cardio is poor enough that she could just melt late. Maybe she knocks her out in 3 minutes and I look stupid, but that's a trade off that I'm willing to take in this situation.
Chase Hooper defeats Nick Fiore Result: Hooper by decision (2-1)
This is another fight that is kind of a mess. I'm not really a fan of Hooper's game in the grand scheme of things, but if there was a fight that gave him a chance, it's probably this one. We know Hooper's striking isn't very good. He also lacks explosion and speed to really do any damage. His output is ok and his cardio is fine, but nothing that stands out. His defense on the feet also isn't great. He's pretty tough, but he takes so many clean shots that it only goes so far. His grappling is really good though, even though his wrestling leaves a lot to be desired. I just don't really see Fiore as the kind of guy who is capable of running away with this one. His striking just really isn't that great either. He's not very high output and I don't trust his defense either. It doesn't take much to be better on the feet than Hooper, but I'm not convinced that it isn't a competitive fight standing. Fiore usually wants to grapple as well, but I think he'll be at a disadvantage there. He doesn't stop takedowns particularly well and neither does Hooper. On the mat, I think they're on very different levels. Fiore is ok on top, but nothing special. I think Hooper is going to create space and opportunities for submissions or scrambles where he could get himself on top. When Fiore is on the bottom, he is content to just stay in guard and finish rounds on his back. It wouldn't surprise me to see Fiore out strike Hooper, but I really don't think it's as significant of a skill gap as some are suggesting. In a fight that seems like it is going to be grappling heavy, I have to think Hooper should be favored.
Bets to consider: Hooper ML +112
The idea of losing money on Chase Hooper does make me uncomfortable, but it really sort of feels like this fight is set up for him to have some success. I think this fight is probably competitive on the feet. I do think Fiore is better standing, but it's not by a lot and the cardio aspect does make me think Hooper could have more success late. This fight is likely to be grappling heavy and I think Hooper is better there. The differences in the ground game is apparent and I don't think Fiore's wrestling is so much better that it nullifies the BJJ of Hooper. Even if Fiore does get on top, I think there are real chances for Hooper to reverse. I kind of think this line should be flipped.
Rodrigo Nascimento defeats Ilir Latifi Result: Nascimento by decision (3-1)
This is sort of destined to be another really sloppy fight. It's kind of hard to feel passionately about one side or the other in this one, but I guess I have to lean the Nascimento side. The margins in this one are so slim though. The main reason that I prefer Nascimento is that I know he is going to have the better output and I think he probably has the better cardio, although it still isn't great. There is a path for Latifi though. He has the power on the feet. Nascimento doesn't have much defense and he isn't the most durable guy in the world either. That opens the path for Latifi to either knock him out or at least hurt him. If anyone is going to get takedowns, it's also Latifi. The issue is that I just don't trust his gas and he has no output on the feet. If he isn't getting takedowns, he's going to get outworked on the feet. This one is kind of a coin flip for me.
Bets to consider: Latifi ML +158
I just finished saying that I think this fight is probably a coin flip, so to get one side at almost +160, then I kind of have to be interested. I don't really want to be Latifi just because his holes are so obvious, but he also has clear paths to victory. I feel like this is a spot where you just have to play the number on principle and look away as the split decision is being read. Regardless of what conclusion you come to, I think almost everyone agrees that betting Nascimento at -188 is a bad idea.
Orion Cosce defeats Gilbert Urbina Result: Urbina by KO (3-2)
I really don't have much of an opinion on this fight. It's just kind of a weird matchup based on the strengths and weaknesses of each side. I can't say I feel great being on the Cosce side for multiple reasons. His striking isn't great, he's low output, and I don't trust his cardio. On the Urbina side, he has poor striking defense, he doesn't have great takedown defense, and I also don't trust his gas tank. With Cosce, I feel like he is more reliable in what he does. He's not an amazing grappler, but he is a pretty solid wrestler and he is reliable to at least attempt takedowns. I think he does a better job of pushing through his exhaustion as well. Urbina is the better striker and he'll have better output, but his defense in general just leaves a lot to be desired. I kind of assume that Cosce can get takedowns and he can probably land some strikes as well. Urbina has the better submission game, but I really don't think he's submitting Cosce. My prediction is Cosce by top time, but I really can't say I have a strong inclination as to how this fight goes.
Bets to consider: O2.5 rounds +104
With both sides at -108, I really don't feel compelled to play a side in this fight. I guess if I had to make a play, I would go with the over. Cosce has some power, but he's really just not much of a finisher. He's not a technical striker and his volume really isn't there for me to put his odds of getting a knockout that high. Urbina has a submission game, but I doubt he's submitting Cosce and while I guess he could get a late finish by TKO based on accumulated damage, I don't really think that's all that likely either. It's a pass for me though.
Karolina Kowalkiewicz defeats Vanessa Demopoulos Result: Kowalkiewicz by decision (4-2)
It was at this point in the process where I really started to feel just how strange all of these fights are. I don't know how many fights in a row I can start off by saying "this is a weird matchup that I don't really have a strong opinion on", but here we are again. I do feel slightly better about this one, but not a ton. I feel more comfortable in my stance that Karolina is the rightful favorite. The striking should be pretty clearly in her favor. Demopoulos has some pop, but from a technical standpoint, she's noticeably behind. Her defense isn't great standing and her output isn't great either. The danger in her game comes from the grappling where she has a solid enough submission game and she's aggressive with it. The issue is that her wrestling really just isn't very good. If she could get Karolina down, she would have real success there and could find the submission, but I just don't feel great about her actually doing it. Demopoulos is dangerous, but I think Karolina has the edge in this matchup.
Bets to consider: Demopoulos by submission +500
I don't have a ton of interest in this fight, but I guess the dart throw would be Demopoulos by submission. I really can't bet her money line because her path to victory is just so narrow. With that said, the danger factor that she brings with her submission game is enough to keep me off of Karolina at -134. Take the stab if you want, but it's a pass spot otherwise.
Viacheslav Borschev defeats Maheshate Result: Borschev by KO (5-2)
This is a fight where I'm kind of torn. On a larger scale, I like Slava here. This is a fight between two strikers who aren't going to initiate grappling and Slava is the better striker. Seems straight forward. However, a few key points have me questioning myself. Slava's defense isn't always the best and Maheshate has very real power. I don't think him getting knocked out is really all that wild of an outcome. However, that isn't really enough for me not to pick him here. He should just be the cleaner striker and I think his cardio is probably a tick better with better output. That's really all there is to this one. Slava's grappling has obviously not looked very good, but I have no reason to believe Maheshate is going to attempt takedowns, let alone get them, let alone actually hold Slava down. Even if all of those things happened, I'm not so sure Maheshate has the gas to sustain that gameplan for very long. I prefer Slava's striking, but it's not a significant enough margin that I'm firmly planting my flag on his side.
Bets to consider: O2.5 rounds +130
I really have no interest in the money lines here. Over -160 on Slava is way too far for me to have any interest. At the same time, I really can't advocate for a Maheshate play either as I'm just not really bought into him at this stage. I think the over could be an interesting way to go. Maheshate's power does worry me some, especially combined with Slava's defense, but neither of these guys are really known for pushing a crazy pace. If we get a low to mid output kickboxing match, I don't think this fight going over is all that unlikely.
Michael Johnson defeats Carlos Diego Ferreira Result: Ferreira by KO (5-3)
As I've said many times before, I'm a bigger fan of Michael Johnson than has been good for my health. Here I am again picking him in a fight. We know Johnson can be inconsistent, but skill for skill, I think he's significantly better than what his record says. His boxing is really good and that is what I think wins him this fight. Ferreira isn't a poor striker necessarily, but he relies more on pressure and volume. I think that is going to get him picked apart on a technical level by Johnson. Ferreira is also starting to age and is coming off of a long layoff. Johnson has struggled with grapplers at times, but I think his takedown defense is actually pretty decent. The worrisome part is that one takedown really could be the end of the fight as Ferreira should have the submission game to find one against Johnson if he's in dominant position. If this was a prime version of Ferreira, I would feel a lot more confident in him here, but it's not and he didn't look all that great the last time we saw him. Johnson has been looking better lately and he's just been more active. I'll side with him here.
Bets to consider: U2.5 rounds -158
The number is a bit inflated, but I think it is still playable as it stands. Ferreira could come out and get a takedown and submit Johnson in 90 seconds and make this look great. I think Johnson could be in line for a finish as well. Ferreira could just be done and go down after the first clean combination that lands, but even if he's not, Johnson does have power. Ferreira is 38. That's not the most amazing case for a knockout ever, but it puts it firmly in play.
Joaquin Buckley defeats Andre Fialho Result: Buckley by KO (6-3)
This is actually an interesting fight. On one hand, it feels like Buckley is just a better MMA fighter, not by a huge margin, but a noticeable margin. However, the style dynamics of how the fight is likely to play out sort of caps that advantage. Buckley is very likely the better grappler, but he just doesn't have the cardio to sustain that gameplan for very long. Buckley's best attribute is his power and he has a lot of it. However, on the feet, he's just a bit limited. He just doesn't have a wide array of techniques to turn to. He is mostly limited to low kicks, overhands, and big, looping hooks. It's been effective, but it's just simple. Fialho isn't a complicate fighter either. He's a big, strong, powerful guy with good power. He throws the straighter shots, which could be an issue, but he has legitimately 0 defense. He's been knocked out his fair share and I'm not even convinced he has a durability problem. There's just only so many clean shots someone can absorb in a night and he usually meets his quota unless he gets a quick finish himself. He's very fast and his boxing is decent. I think this fight is more than likely going to become a swinging contest and if it does, Fialho is very much live as Buckley doesn't have the best durability ever either. The lack of defense from Fialho and power from Buckley has me leaning him, but it's really a matter of who lands the first clean power shot.
Bets to consider: Fialho ML +180
Given how this fight projects to play out, I'm not sure how one side gets to +180. If they're just going to stand and trade, which I believe they're going to, then I'll take the +180 side every time. In this fight, you're getting two different versions of a similar fighter. Big power, poor striking defense, untrustworthy durability. That doesn't align with someone being +180 in my mind.
Emily Ducote defeats Loopy Godinez Result: Godinez by decision (6-4)
I'm starting to come around on Ducote after being somewhat skeptical of her early in her UFC career and I think this may be a decent spot for her. She's going to be the better striker with more power and better cardio. If this fight becomes a 15 minute range kick boxing match, she really shouldn't have too many issues. Loopy is a decent striker with some power of her own, but not really on Ducote's level in that regard. The question really is how much does Loopy wrestle and how much success does she have. If Loopy wrestled aggressively all the time, then I would feel a lot better picking her, but she doesn't. Ducote has decent takedown defense and if Loopy is only going to shoot a couple of times, then that feels like a win for Ducote. Loopy could be more aggressive with it, but I'm not sure that her cardio can hold up with that gameplan for a full 15. Ducote's striking defense isn't great, but she will have the better output. This feels like a competitive fight where I give Ducote a slight edge.
Bets to consider: Ducote ML +124
In a fight where I ever so slightly lean Ducote (maybe -125), I guess I sort of have to play her at +125. While I do wish the number was a bit better, this should be enough for me to jump in. My only real reservation is that I fail to see either side pulling away. This is probably going to be a pretty close fight regardless of which side wins. I think I have to play it, but I am having second thoughts.
Anthony Hernandez defeats Edmen Shahbazayan Result: Hernandez by KO (7-4)
This sort of feels like a tale of two fights. The first round of this fight probably looks pretty competitive. Edmen is a better striker with more power. Hernandez doesn't have the best defense standing and if Edmen connects, he can certainly knock him out. Hernandez is going to fight with the better output early to make things competitive. Edmen has also struggled to grapple defensively, so we could see Hernandez hit an early takedown. This dynamic will only last for about a round though as the huge question is Edmen's cardio. He's still only in his mid-20s and should be improving fight to fight. Both his defensive grappling and cardio should be getting better, but it's impossible to say if they did or to what extent until we actually see it. If we get a similar version to the Edmen we know, the pace and pressure of Hernandez is going to be too much. He's going to put it on him late and potentially even find a finish down the stretch. Hernandez can probably just attempt enough takedowns to the point where he gasses Edmen out and takes over. As long as he doesn't get knocked out early, I kind of think he wins late pretty consistently.
Bets to consider: O1.5 rounds -154
I'm not sure I really understand this being lined at a O/U 1.5 rounds. Under 1.5 sort of feels strongly tied to an Edmen knockout. Most finishes for Hernandez are coming later. Even if he does find early grappling success, it's not like Hernandez is Khabib or Charles Oliveira on top. He's not the most aggressive in throwing strikes from the top or fishing for submission attempts. I kind of think this fight goes over at a pretty high rate. If I knew Edmen would be even like 15-20% better with his cardio and grappling, I would take the shot, but he's shown that he can slow down dramatically and I really can't bet it even though I think he is very much live for a knockout in round 1.
Mackenzie Dern defeats Angela Hill Result: Dern by decision (8-4)
I don't know man, what do you want me to say? Everyone sort of knows how this fight is going to go. If the fight stays standing, Hill is going to beat her up. If Dern gets the fight to the ground, she probably submits her. The tipping point is that Dern isn't a good wrestler and can't consistently get fights to the ground. On top of that, I don't think either fighter has very good cardio. I just sort of come down on the side where I think at some point during the 25 minutes this fight hits the floor. If it does, I really don't know that Hill can survive for more than maybe a minute before Dern has her in a very compromised spot. We know Hill's grappling isn't great and Dern's is elite. It's just a matter of if she actually gets the takedown or not. I don't really have a lot more to offer than that. I guess I also expect Dern to compete better on the feet than Hill does on the mat, but I'm not sure that even matters all that much. I prefer Dern, but I don't feel good about it.
Bets to consider: Hill ML +144
You could really only bet Hill. Betting Dern at -170 is just asking for trouble. The reason I'm probably not actually going to do it is just that it feels so narrow. It feels like Hill would have to fight the perfect fight to win. She would have to go a full 25 without making a mistake to keep the fight standing the entire time. Dern has a lot of room to work. She could get beaten up for 18 minutes and then have Hill slip, get on top of her, and armbar her in like 25 seconds and end the fight. I think if there was more of a path for Hill to finish the fight herself then I would be more interested, but her chances of finding a knockout are pretty slim.
That's it for me on this one. Thanks for reading, have a good one, and try to enjoy the card. Official bets are below.
Official Bets
Chase Hooper ML .5 units at +112 to win .56 units
Ilir Latifi ML .5 units at +158 to win .79 units
Michael Johnson ML .5 units at +134 to win .67 units
Andre Fialho ML .5 units at +180 to win .9 units
Emily Ducote ML .5 units at +124 to win .62 units
Shahbazayan/Hernandez O1.5 rounds 1.54 units at -154 to win 1 unit
Net Gain/Loss
Event Total: - 0.44 units
Previous Year to Date Total: - 9.86 units
Updated Year to Date Total: - 10.30 units
UPDATE:
Weekly Record: 8 - 4
Previous Year to Date Record: 113 - 75 - 3
Updated Year to Date Record: 121 - 79 - 3
2022 Winning Percentage: 62.919%
2021 Winning Percentage: 60.000%
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