After another solid week, we look to keep the streak going. It doesn't sound like last week was a profitable one for a lot of people in the MMA betting community, so I'll just be happy that we were in the positives. We have kind of a strange event on tap for this week. It's not a horrible event by any stretch, but randomly getting Abus Magomedov in a main event after beating Dustin Stoltzfus in his UFC debut is odd to say the least. The rest of the card should be solid enough to make this an average Fight Night. Just to be clear, my picks will be in the bolded font, and the real results will be listed next to it in italics after the fight is official. Official bets will be at the bottom. Bets are now being officially tracked at BetMMA as well.
Blagoy Ivanov defeats Alexandr Romanov Result:
This is a bit of an odd fight, but I am at least interested to see where Romanov is at. He looked completely lost last time out, which makes this fight so hard to project. We know what Romanov wants to do and that's get takedowns and swing away on top. It's really everything else that is missing. His striking just isn't there. I really don't even think he's that great of a wrestler, he's just huge and can over power people. His cardio is also nonexistent and seemingly got worse. He looked completely gassed out against Volkov two minutes in, which just isn't going to get it done. Blagoy is clearly approaching the end, but I do think he has enough left to win this fight. He didn't look great on bottom last fight and that was against Marcin Tybura. If Romanov gets that much top time, it probably doesn't go well for Blagoy. The difference is that Romanov only has like 3 takedown attempts in him before he's done. Blagoy is a big guy and has some pop in his strikes. If Romanov doesn't get the takedown he needs, we've seen him get discouraged and basically give up. If he is forced to stand and starts getting beaten up, it wouldn't surprise me to see that here. Blagoy isn't historically a poor grappler although he hasn't fought the most amazing grapplers ever. What has me on him here is that he just doesn't really have to be. He only has to defend maybe one or two legitimate takedown attempts before Romanov's cardio fails him.
Bets to consider: Ivanov ML +114
I know I picked him outright, but I'm kind of leaning towards not playing Blagoy as things currently stand. Seeing him get stuck on bottom against Tybura is very concerning. If he spends that much time under Romanov, he's probably getting finished. It's not like Blagoy was looking awesome before that fight either. Him taking over late in this fight is as much to do with Romanov's lack of cardio as it does with anything Blagoy brings to the table. The path for clear domination is there for Romanov and to only be getting +114 on the other side doesn't really feel like the spot to attack. Hopefully the line moves enough for me to jump in. If it gets out closer to +130, then maybe that's the move.
Luana Carolina defeats Ivana Petrovic Result:
This is, not a good fight, but one that I'm at least somewhat interested in seeing play out. Petrovic is making her UFC debut and she is being heavily favored. That likely has more to do with known weaknesses in Carolina's game than anything we know about Petrovic. Carolina really isn't anything to write home about. She's a fairly long, range based striker and when she's allowed to do just that, she's ok. She throws a lot of kicks and, considering she's low level, she does a decent job of keeping fights on the outside. She has some power and she throws decent output as well. She has had real problems in the grappling though. Her takedown defense isn't great, but it's not awful. It's really when she hits the ground that is the bad spot of her game. She just doesn't get up off of her back and can really be taken advantage of from top position. Petrovic is probably the more well rounded fighter, but I'm just not convinced she's truly UFC level. Her striking looks like it is relatively ok, but I doubt that she is any better than Carolina. I think it's much more likely that she's noticeably behind standing. Carolina has struggled grappling and Petrovic has had some success there, but I am really not buying into her wrestling. She relies a lot on upper body takedowns from the clinch and Carolina is ok there. She has much more problems with grapplers who can get her down from around her hips and legs. I'm not saying Petrovic can't win this fight, but the huge gap in level of competition has me pumping the breaks. She does good things on video, but I just can't put much stock into it because she's just not fighting anyone of significance. If Petrovic can get on top, she's going to look pretty good, but I'm not convinced she does. Standing, it could look moderately competitive, but I prefer Carolina based on volume and just overall experience.
Bets to consider: Carolina ML +186
I understand someone who thinks Petrovic should be a small favorite. Carolina has looked so bad on her back that a takedown should be the round for Petrovic. It's just the ability to actually get takedowns that I'm not buying. On the feet, I don't think Carolina runs over Petrovic, but I do think she is better. She should have better output and maybe even a bit better power. Add in the huge gap in experience and I'm just not sure how we get to Carolina +186. If she does get held down for long stretches in this fight then I think I'm prepared to live with that near +200.
Guram Kutateladze defeats Elves Brenner Result:
I don't really have much to say about this fight. Guram has his issues when it comes to fighting top level competition, but this isn't that. He really should be able to do whatever he wants in this one. He's both a better striker and a better grappler, but we know he's not very likely to attempt many, if any, takedowns. Guram is just the much cleaner striker and I suspect he won't really have too many issues. The major problem is that he's just very low output. He just doesn't put a lot out there and that forces him to rely on big moments or just narrowly edging out his opponent. Brenner isn't really going to have any answers skill for skill. The one real path for him is going to be the volume. He's not going to be better than Guram, but he has the path to at least try and out work him. I don't think his odds are great as he is just going to be behind Guram skill wise, but that is his best shot.
Bets to consider: O2.5 rounds -122
I just don't really think the style dynamics of this fight really lend itself to a finish very often. I don't think we see much grappling in this one. Guram is very good as a defensive grappler and he doesn't really pursue takedowns offensively very often. Standing, I think we're in store for a slow paced kick boxing match. Guram doesn't push a pace and I think his technical advantage is wide enough that he can keep Brenner on the outside somewhat easily. I just don't really see the opportunities for finishes coming consistently in this fight.
Karol Rosa defeats Yana Santos Result:
I used to think very highly of Rosa and I still do to an extent, but not nearly as much as I have. Her striking is still pretty good and her power is solid for the weight. She has good output, but she can get a bit porous with the defense at times. It's just her grappling that has held her back. Her takedown defense isn't the worst, but her overall ground game just isn't there. When she goes down, she just doesn't really do a whole lot and doesn't really get up either. She's also had trouble in the clinch at times. Santos is clearly on the back 9 of her career, but she still has some left in the tank. At range, it's not that she can't compete, but I think she is probably behind. Rosa has the better output and power, so it doesn't feel like Santos has a great path standing. Santos really isn't much of a grappler historically, but I think she has a path here. Santos has been decent in the clinch and if she can somehow get Rosa down, I feel pretty good about her holding Rosa down. I do ultimately prefer Rosa, but it isn't really something I feel too strongly about.
Bets to consider: Santos ML +144
If I had to make a play on this fight, I guess I would rather play the Santos side. I'm really not feeling too strongly about it though. The path for both is pretty clear, so to get one side close to +150 seems ok. I think Rosa should be the favorite and a solid one at that, but I think -180 is just starting to get a bit too confident. Seeing her lose to Norma Dumont last time out really just wasn't a good look. She lost to Sara McMann not too long ago as well and she doesn't even have good cardio. Santos does have good cardio, so I just think she probably makes this a pretty competitive fight. I would much rather have the +150 side as we got to decision in this one.
Joanderson Brito defeats Westin Wilson Result:
I really don't know why this fight is happening, but here we are. Brito is just a much, much better fighter. I don't think Wilson is the worst fighter to ever live, but he's just way in over his head here. His striking is fine, I guess, offensively. The problem for him standing is that he just doesn't really defend strikes very well at all. He has a fair amount of submission wins on his resume, but I don't really think his grappling is any good. It feels like Brito should be able to do whatever he wants, but striking probably gives Wilson his best chance. Brito really should grapple, I think he can get takedowns and get to dominant positions somewhat easily in this one.
Bets to consider: Brito by submission +195
This is a pretty tough fight to bet. Most of the lines are smoked beyond belief. I suppose you could throw a dart on Wilson at +700 or wherever he's at now, but I can't really get behind that. Brito by submission being almost +200, while the KO line is -115 feels a bit strange though. I guess they are expecting that Brito chooses to stand with him? I can't really advocate for anything significant here, but I don't think a small play on Brito sub is the worst look ever.
Rinat Fakhretdinov defeats Kevin Lee Result:
We have the return of Kevin Lee and while the fight may not be super exciting to watch, I am excited for it. It's just kind of hard to pinpoint exactly what version of Lee we're getting. It feels like he should be a lot older than he actually is, yet he's taken a long time off and he has a history of injuries. We do sort of know what to expect from Lee style wise though. We know he wants to wrestle and get himself on top. Lee is pretty good at all of those things. His wrestling is pretty good and then his top game is pretty good both with striking and submissions. Standing, Lee isn't anything special, but he's not bad either. His volume isn't great and his defense also leaves some to be desired, but it isn't too bad. He's a solid defensive grappler as well and usually does a good job of getting up off the bottom. The major hole in his game has been his cardio. He pretty consistently slows down in the second half of the fight whenever he faces some resistance and that could be his undoing here. Skill for skill, I think Lee is a better fighter than Rinat. If you look back, I think I probably have underrated Rinat, but I think his success has a lot more to do with his physical traits than his MMA skills. Rinat is a grappler as well, but I don't think his skills are as good technically as Lee. The same goes for striking. The difference is that Rinat is going to be much bigger and stronger. I think his cardio is only a little bit better as well. Lee is a former lightweight and I think that might be the difference in this one. Rinat's cardio has been looking improved since he came to the UFC and his strength has been a problem. I think the fight probably looks close, and maybe even favors Lee early, but as things progress, I think Rinat starts to look better and better as Lee fades.
Bets to consider: Lee ML +172
With all of that said, I think Kevin Lee is very obviously the side. Lee is the much more experienced and refined fighter. He has a much more diverse skill set and he is just the more skilled fighter all around. The question is really just how does he hold up physically. How does his cardio hold up late and how does he deal with the size and strength of Rinat? Early, I think Lee is fine because he is just better. It's just hard to say how he holds up because his cardio has never been the best and now we're seeing him for the first time in awhile. I have to think he has some left in the tank. He's also fought and beaten fighters significantly better than Rinat. I think Rinat being a small favorite makes sense, but -200 seems to be pushing it.
Brunno Ferreira defeats Nursulton Ruziboev Result:
For me, I kind of think Ferreira should be fine in this spot. I have my questions about him in the long term, but I don't think this matchup is really going to answer any of them. Ferreira really should be able to do whatever he wants. He probably chooses to stand and bang this one out. Ferreira is just better on the feet. The only thing is that he does leave himself open to be hit and Ruziboev is big, so there is at least some power in there. If he wanted the path of least resistance, then he would probably go for the takedowns. He really should be able to grapple Ruziboev without too much of an issue. I just don't really think Ruziboev is high enough level to expose any of the weaknesses I think are or at least could be there for Ferreira. The one chance he does have is if he can extend this fight long enough. I don't trust Ferreira's gas tank at all, but I really don't get the vibe that Ruziboev is going to be around long enough to really push it. Ferreira should be in a good spot here.
Betting thoughts:
I don't really think this fight is playable. Ferreira is a rightful favorite. However, his style just doesn't really lend itself to -225 and I just don't feel comfortable saying that he is that level of fighter. With that said, I think he is just better than Ruziboev in almost every way. I can't really bet Ruziboev because I just don't really think his game holds up at the UFC level. I don't want to bet Ferreira because I don't trust his cardio at that high of a number. The inside the distance and KO numbers are smoked. The under 1.5 rounds is juiced. I think the best case scenario is that Ferreira comes out and gets a dominant finish in round one and then we can fade him with a better matchup next time.
Ismael Bonfim defeats Benoit St. Denis Result:
This is probably the best fight on the card, at least in my opinion. Ismael is the better Bonfim brother in my opinion and I'm excited to see him again. In this fight, he'll want to keep things at range. He'll be the better distance striker in this one by a considerable amount. St. Denis really doesn't have much defense so Bonfim should be able to land pretty consistently with power. St. Denis has shown good toughness, but it does feel like a finish would be on the horizon if the fight is taking place mostly at space. St. Denis isn't a horrible striker offensively, but his defense is so porous that he can't afford to be at range with good strikers for very long. His path in this one will be grappling. He does have a solid ground game, but he does lack in the wrestling department. Bonfim's defensive grappling is somewhat of an unknown. We just don't really know exactly how good he is at stopping takedowns. If he can stuff all of St. Denis's shots, he should win this one no problem. If he can't, that's when things get interesting. The best parts of St. Denis's game aren't his MMA skills, but his athletic traits. St. Denis is going to be the bigger and stronger fighter in this one. He will also have the better cardio. If he can force a high pace early and survive the early shots, I think he could wear Bonfim down and potentially melt him late. I have to give Bonfim the edge, but it should be fun to watch.
Bets to consider: Bonfim ITD -105, St. Denis ML +245
I think there's two ways you can go with this one. The easier route to see is the St. Denis money line. I have my concerns about if he can get to his takedowns or not, but at near +250, you don't really need much to cover that price. The physicality, cardio, and toughness are enough to take a dart throw on at that kind of price. For the Bonfim side, I think his ITD is interesting. If he isn't finishing consistently, then he was never the side at over -300 to begin with. I think some people are scared off of the ITD because St. Denis survived to a decision against Zaleski Dos Santos and while I get it, that fight really should have been stopped multiple times over. Now, he did show the durability to take that damage and sort of fight back, but if we get a 15 minute kick boxing match, it wouldn't surprise me if we get a similar looking fight. If Bonfim gets the fight he wants, he really should finish. I think either of those options are playable, just depending which side you come down on.
Melissa Gatto defeats Ariane Lipski Result:
This is kind of a weird one. If this fight stays standing, then I think Lipski ends up looking pretty good. Lipski isn’t an amazing striker, but she’s going to have a technical advantage there as well as having a slight volume edge. Gatto can probably compete standing to a degree, but that’s not where she wants or needs this fight. Gatto needs to be getting takedowns here and I think she can probably do just that. If she can get on top, I don’t suspect that she’ll really have any issues. Lipski does an ok job of stopping takedowns, but once she hits the mat, she’s typically just a step behind. Gatto really should be able to control from top at worst. I do kind of think she should be able to advance position and get some good offense off though. She’ll have some opportunities to find a submission and I think there’s a decent chance she locks one in.
Bets to consider: Lipski ML +188
This is a tough fight to bet. On one hand, Melissa Gatto isn’t really the caliber of fighter that can be -225 very often, but her ability to get takedowns in this fight really should make this a very winnable fight for her. If this fight stays standing, Lipski will cover her price pretty consistently. It’s just that when she goes down, it’s virtually guaranteed she spends the rest of the round there. I’m just kind of stuck between this line probably being a tick wide, but not actually feeling strongly enough to put any money down on it. I think I’m going to pass but if we get to +200 then maybe.
Michael Morales defeats Max Griffin Result:
I’m really torn on what I am to expect in this fight. I’ve been a fan of Griffin for awhile despite his short comings just because he’s been so reliable in his career. Skill wise, I think Griffin has most of the advantages in this fight. I don’t really expect to see a ton of grappling in this fight, but Griffin should be able to hold his own there if he has to. At range, Griffin is the much more advanced fighter at this stage. He’s much more technical in general, but it should really show defensively. Griffin doesn’t eat a lot of clean shots and that should be the key for him in this one. My biggest concerns for him are age related. I didn’t realize it but he’s quickly approaching 40 and we’re now in the range where we have to consider the possibility that he goes over the edge. His cardio has never been a strong point and it seems like it may be fading on him a bit. His durability may also be starting to waiver slightly, so he’s going to have to avoid big strikes in this one. At this stage of his career, Michael Morales is much the opposite. He isn’t a very refined fighter in any aspect, but his athletic traits are off the charts. He has some ability to wrestle and I wouldn’t say he’s a mess as a technical striker, but he clearly has a lot of work to do before he makes a real run. He’s just so big, strong, fast, powerful, and explosive that it covers a lot of holes. We’ve seen him get his share of knockouts already and I don’t suspect that stops any time soon. Given his age, it’s also very possible, if not likely, that Morales has made significant improvement since we’ve seen him last. The biggest part of his game that needs cleaned up is his striking defense. He takes way too many clean shots and as he moved up the ladder, he’s going to pay more and more if he’s that open to be hit. This sort of feels like two fighters going in opposite directions, it’s just a matter of if their trajectories have crossed over or not. I have to think that Morales has made major strides. At the same time, Griffin is coming off of an extremely competitive fight with Tim Means. This feels like a spot where Morales takes the next jump.
Bets to consider: U2.5 rounds +105
As for the money lines, I think I would rather be on the Griffin side. He should have the technical advantages and I think that’s enough to take a shot on a much more experienced fighter in Griffin. I think a small play is reasonable and if he’s cooked and gets finished then you just have to live with it. I think the under is a much better way to go though. It covers a lot of your bases at a solid price. If Griffin is over the hill, he probably gets knocked out. Even if Griffin isn’t over the hill, Morales is powerful enough to find a finish. If Morales is still having the defensive issues, then Griffin has the power coming back to find a knockout of his own. At plus money, I think this is a pretty decent spot.
Grant Dawson defeats Damir Ismagulov Result:
This is actually a pretty interesting fight. Boiling this down to striker vs grappler may be an over simplification, but I don’t think it’s necessarily wrong either. Dawson fights what is probably my least favorite style to watch, but he’s damn good at it. Everything he does is in order to set up his takedowns. His striking is not very good. He throws no volume, he doesn’t have much power, and his striking defense is also poor. I’ve seen some people suggest he has a durability issue and I think his chin is ok, but he can be clipped and he’s so open to being hit that durability really only goes so far. His overall grappling is about as high level as it gets for someone unranked. He has a combination of wrestling and jiu-jitsu that you just don’t see very often. He is really good on top. I do sometimes wish he was a bit more active with ground and pound, but his control grappling is really, really good. He is also really good at transitioning to the back and looking for submissions. That is really where I think he's going to do a lot of his work in this fight. Damir is a pretty solid grappler. He has good initial takedown defense, but he can eventually go down. When he does, his bottom game isn't especially impressive. He gives his back in order to stand up and if he does that here, Dawson is going to jump his back and probably ride him out from there or submit him. However, if Damir is somehow able to stay upright, it really should be one way traffic. Dawson just doesn't offer much offensively or defensively standing. Damir doesn't have great volume either, but he won't need it. He'll be able to touch Dawson every time he throws. My concern there is that Damir really hasn't shown significant power, but with how much he can connect, maybe he could find a finish. I do have to go with Dawson here though. I think one takedown for him is probably the round, if not the entire fight. Damir should be good enough to not get submitted, but I would be surprised to see him get up more than maybe once against Dawson. This is probably a boring one to watch, but I think Dawson gets it done.
Bets to consider: Dawson ML -106
I don't have a fiery hot take here. The lines are kind of weird. The over is juiced into oblivion so that's gone. I think if I had to put something down, it would be on Dawson. There isn't much there though. I would make him a very small favorite, like -125. It feels like a fairly binary fight in a lot of aspects, which is why I don't really want to make a play here. If Dawson can get takedowns, he's going to hold Damir down or finish him. If he can't, he's going to get beaten up. The reason I slightly prefer Dawson is that I think he has most of the finishing potential. I would be pretty surprised to see Damir get a knockout. It wouldn't surprise me if Dawson got the submission. It feels like Dawson has more wiggle room to me. He only needs one takedown in a round and he's going to control the rest of the round. Damir needs to force the standup for the entirety of the fight. It's a pass spot unless a bunch of money comes in on Damir though.
Sean Strickland defeats Abus Magomedov Result:
I really don't understand why this fight is happening. Abus knocked out Stoltzfus very quickly so I guess that means he's ready for a top 8 opponent? Sure, why not. I don't necessarily think he's a bad fighter, but assuming he's ready to compete in a 5 round fight against Sean Strickland is a significant jump. Abus has talent, but that's as far as I can comfortably say right now. He's a diverse striker and he's got some power with both his hands and kicks. He seems to be an alright grappler as well. I just can't see him get knocked out in 33 seconds by Louis Taylor and think he's ready for Strickland 4 fights later. Strickland isn't particularly exciting to watch most of the time and I don't really like him that much, but he really should be fine here. Getting Strickland main events usually results in a relatively boring fight and I have to deal with his nonsensical interviews all week, but boring isn't always bad in MMA. Strickland doesn't do anything you haven't seen before, but he executes it really well. I think that is really all he needs here. He's just a better striker. He throws much better volume and he's much cleaner. He's better defensively both standing and in the grappling. Even if he does get taken down, I think he'll get back up without too much of an issue. I think the cardio advantage for Strickland is going to be the most obvious aspect of the fight. Strickland is going to pour on the volume and when Abus slows down, Strickland will be able to maintain. Even if Abus can keep the striking competitive early, he won't be able to late. I think Strickland wins here without too much resistance.
Bets to consider: Strickland ML -162, O3.5 rounds -148
I just fail to see how Strickland is only -160. For him not to be -200 or more seems strange to me. He's just a better fighter in almost every regard. He's a better striker, I'm pretty sure he can prevent the grappling, and he has better cardio. The one path for Abus would be to catch Sean with something and knock him out, but that doesn't seem likely either. Sean is good defensively and he doesn't have any durability problems. He got knocked out by Pereira, but I'm not putting a ton of stock into that. I think the over is a decent look as well. Strickland just doesn't get finished except against elite finishers like Pereira and he doesn't finish fights either. I think I'll be on both here.
I'm moving as of the day of the fights, but I should be in front of the TV for the entire card. Thanks for reading, have a good one, and enjoy the fights. Official bets are below.
Official Bets
Blagoy Ivanov ML .5 units at +120 to win .6 units
Luana Carolina ML .5 units at +180 to win .9 units
Kutateladze/Brenner O2.5 rounds 1 unit at -122 to win .82 units
Kevin Lee ML .5 units at +176 to win .88 units
Benoit St. Denis ML .5 units at +260 to win 1.30 units
Morales/Griffin U2.5 rounds .75 units at +104 to win .78 units
Sean Strickland ML 2 units at -162 to win 1.23 units
Strickland/Magomedov O3.5 rounds 1.5 units at -148 to win 1.01 units
Strickland/Magomedov FGTD .5 units at +116 to win .58 units
Sean Strickland by decision .5 units at +190 to win .95 units
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