After a marathon of a card last week, we have a smaller PPV, but it should be pretty fun by and large. Last week in London was a bit of a slog to get through, but it paid off at the end with the return of Tom Aspinall. He's really the best thing going in the heavyweight division these days with Stipe Miocic and Jon Jones probably in the last few fights of their careers. Ciryl Gane has lost a lot of his luster with his last few losses and both Tai Tuivasa and Curtis Blaydes have suffered some set backs. Sergei Pavlovich is the only other guy right now and making him vs Aspinall is really the only fight anyone cares about other than Jones vs Stipe at the top. The potential for both Jones and Stipe to retire after their fight in November makes booking it tricky though because you don't want to have Aspinall vs Pavlovich in December and then hear that the winner of Jones/Stipe is retiring in January. There's no real rush to book it though with Aspinall still seeing how his body will respond post injury, but it's the fight everyone wants. This week though we're getting some really good matchups one after another. Even the bad fights should be mostly fun to watch. Dustin Poirier will be fighting Justin Gaethje for a second time, this time for the lightweight iteration of the BMF title. I'm not a huge fan of the BMF belt, but I don't really care enough to have a huge issue with it like some people. I just kind of think it's unnecessary. No one is watching this fight because there's an imaginary belt associated with winning. The fight is enough to stand on it's own as just being an awesome fight between two athletes that everyone wants to watch, especially against each other. That's enough of me rambling. Just to be clear, my picks will be in the bolded font, and the real results will be listed next to it in italics after the fight is official. Official bets will be at the bottom. Bets are now being officially tracked at BetMMA as well.
Miranda Maverick defeats Priscila Cachoeira Result:
I suppose this fight could be interesting, but it seems pretty likely that this is going to be one sided. Cachoeira just is what she is at this point in her career, for better or for worse. If someone is going to give her a brawl, she can have success, but that is very unlikely to happen here. Maverick just isn't going to engage in that kind of fight. The striking is probably somewhat even. Maverick is much more technical on the feet, but the volume and power from Cachoeira would probably make it competitive. I just don't really see the fight playing out that way though. The most likely scenario is that Maverick takes Cachoeira down, beats her up, and submits her without too much resistance. Cachoeira just doesn't stop takedown attempts really at all and we know Maverick is going to attempt takedowns pretty consistently. Once she gets one, she's going to be able to do whatever she wants. She probably gets a submission pretty early in this one.
Bets to consider: Maverick ITD +135
Maverick is sitting around -300 on the moneyline and it is pretty justified. The grappling gap in this fight is so significant that it's hard to imagine this fight going any other direction. Cachoeira just isn't going to stop the takedowns and once Maverick gets on top, it will be the beginning of the end in all likelihood. It's just a matter of if Maverick gets an easy decision win or if she finishes. I choose to believe Maverick can finish this fight if she's going to be getting as much top time as I believe she'll have. She really should submit Cachoeira without too much of an issue unless she just is content to ride out rounds on top. She'll have the opportunity to finish though.
Matthew Semelsberger defeats Uros Medic Result:
This fight should be pretty fun. Medic is a guy who is going to force the issue. He's high output while he has energy and he has some power. I've had my issues with Medic and I don't know this is a good situation for them. I don't really trust his cardio and now he's fighting at elevation on short notice. His standing defense isn't great and now he's coming up a weight class against someone with legitimate power. He'll also be at a size disadvantage. His grappling defense isn't good either, but I'm not convinced Semelsberger tries it. I do think Semelsberger is in a decent spot. He's more prepared and I just think his power with Medic's defense probably results in a knockout. He could grapple if he wants to, but that's not normally his style. He's pretty content to stand and trade and Medic will give him just that. Semelsberger doesn't have great defense in his own right, but it is probably better. Medic will be dangerous early, but I don't expect him to maintain his cardio for very long. Probably a Semelsberger KO here.
Bets to consider: Semelsberger by KO +140
This is kind of a tough fight to bet. Semelsberger is at -210 and that sort of feels about right. In general, I don't know that he's the kind of fighter that I would really want to back at that kind of price. He's too much of a brawler to really want to get behind at higher numbers, It's hard to want to back Medic though given the circumstances. It wouldn't be a good matchup for him normally, but coming up a weight on short notice is really putting him behind the 8 ball. Semelsberger is probably going to stand and trade and while Medic will have a chance early, it's probably pretty limited. His defensive limitations really cap any success he could have while he's fresh because he could get knocked out at any time. It's not a great number at +140, but it's certainly better than playing -210.
Jake Matthews defeats Darrius Flowers Result:
This fight is set up to be a bizarre on. We have Darrius Flowers, who is almost all physical and athletic traits, and Jake Matthews, who is extremely inconsistent and unreliable. Flowers is a guy who relies mostly on his athleticism, power, and strength to win him fights and it's worked in the past. He can finish guys standing and can out muscle opponents to get takedowns at times. We've seen time and time again that in 2023, that skill set just doesn't get you as far as it used to. I wouldn't say that Flowers has horrible MMA skills, but it's lower level compared to the roster as a whole. The bigger issue for me is his cardio. He's got about 6 minutes of gas before he just doesn't really have anything left. Matthews is just hard to pin down. He'll come out and look awesome one fight and then just look like a completely different fighter the next. I think his decision making has a lot to do with it. Skill for skill, Matthews is really good, but he just never quite delivers. With that said, I have to think he's just fine here. Given his history, it wouldn't completely shock me if Matthews got caught and knocked out or ended up getting controlled on the ground, but the skill gap is so wide that I think Matthews is ok. As long as he doesn't get finished early, he's going to take over in the second half of the fight and probably should finish the fight. He should take the fight to the ground and he would probably submit Flowers, but relying on Matthews to choose and execute the right gameplan seems unlikely at this point.
Bets to consider: O1.5 rounds -122
I think I prefer the over in this fight. The volume just isn't going to be there on either side. Matthews is almost always low output and Flowers doesn't throw a ton of strikes either. He also doesn't have the cardio to push a pace even if he wanted to. We probably get a low paced fight on the feet and I'm not sure either guy is a good enough wrestler to really get into a dominant position early. Matthews is going to pull away late, but I think Flowers should be able to get to 8 minutes.
Roman Kopylov defeats Claudio Ribeiro Result:
This fight is a bit of a weird one for me. I don't really like a lot of what Ribeiro does, but at the same time I don't really trust Kopylov. Ribeiro is essentially all early knockout potential. He has huge power and he's pretty fast for a guy his size. I think I underestimated his grappling a bit, but still don't think he's fantastic there. I wouldn't go as far as to say Kopylov is a poor defensive fighter, but he can be hit at times, so the openings can be had. The issue for Ribeiro is that I just don't think his technical striking skills are far along enough to really allow him to compete with more seasoned strikers like this. On top of that, his cardio is just nonexistent. Kopylov isn't going to grapple him, but even some time in the clinch may be enough to take a significant chunk of Ribeiro's gas and a lot of his explosiveness goes with it. Kopylov is by no means going to fight for a title any time soon, but as a striker, he's pretty solid. His grappling is not very good and if he somehow ended up on bottom, he would be in a pretty bad spot, but I don't think it's likely he gets taken down. Kopylov has been durable during his career, so I think he's ok in that regard and his cardio is much, much better. Maybe Ribeiro could wobble him a couple of times and steal rounds, but otherwise, Kopylov is probably ok.
Bets to consider: O1.5 rounds -136
I would rather be on the over I think. It's not great though. I can't bet Kopylov at over -200 and while the path is there for Ribeiro, it's not a great one. Betting under 1.5 rounds is never my thing and I think an under 1.5 is reliant on the Ribeiro side. Kopylov isn't going to come out and push a crazy pace looking for a finish. A finish for Kopylov is more based on Ribeiro just gassing out and getting overwhelmed than anything. I suppose Ribeiro could get wild and get himself clipped, but it's not like Kopylov has other worldly power. My guy is that this goes over, but I can't say I'm dying to play it either.
CJ Vergara defeats Vinicius Salvador Result:
This is an interesting fight. This is sort of a situation where both guys will sort of give each other what they want. Both guys want to engage on the feet and that is largely what we should see. On the Salvador side, he is the bigger fighter and he has better power. If he can land early, he has the pop to finish this fight. His striking is fine, but he's more reliant on his power than anything else. The higher volume and plus power have a limited life span though because Salvador just doesn't have the cardio. His standing defense also isn't particularly great. His grappling isn't the worst I've ever seen, but I'm not overly impressed with his ground game either. Vergara has a lot of similarities. He also wants to stand and is going to bring high output. He doesn't have the power Salvador does, but he does bring better cardio. His striking defense lacks and he will probably have to weather a storm early. If he can survive that, he probably is able to put in on Salvador late. He never pursues grappling, but he really should. If he did, he would probably have a fair amount of success. I think Vergara is probably the more durable fighter as well. That combined with his cardio edge and grappling edge has me feeling decent about him in this spot.
Bets to consider: Vergara ML -162
This number isn't fantastic, but I do like CJ in this fight. The thing is that if he loses, it's probably early and this would look like a horrible bet. I do think he wins the second and third round at decently high rates though and wouldn't be surprised if he was able to really put it on Salvador in the third and overwhelm him to a finish. -162 is a bit high for someone with porous defense fighting someone with legitimate power, but if this came back down to around -140 then I think that's the spot to jump in.
Gabriel Bonfim defeats Trevin Giles Result:
I'm actually weirdly interested in this fight. I think Bonfim is a pretty solid prospect and just a very talented fighter in general. His striking is pretty good and he should have a speed advantage here. I think he is a more diverse and complete striker as well. Grappling wise, Bonfim has some slick submissions, but I'm not completely sure his wrestling is anything all that special. Giles is an interesting fighter in his own right. I like some of what he does, but he has similar issues to what I talked about with Matthews earlier. He has some tools, but his decision making has held him back at times. He's also low volume and he doesn't have great cardio. He does have power in his hands though and I think Bonfim is there to be hit at times. Bonfim is the more durable fighter though. I think the best path for Giles is to wrestle. I think he could be ok on top and might have a solid advantage strength wise. I do worry that a game plan like that would drain his cardio too quickly though. I think Giles can make it interesting for a little, but Bonfim's speed and athleticism probably give him a noticeable advantage. The cardio and durability are on his side as well, so it is his fight to lose.
Bets to consider: Giles ML +275
This is one of those spots where it just feels like the line has really gotten out of hand. I just said that I think it is Bonfim's fight to lose and it's by a solid margin. However, Giles has real power, the potential to wrestle and much more experience against better competition. It's not that I'm super excited about the idea of losing money on Giles, but to see him move all the way out to +275 seems a bit strange. I don't think I want to bet it, but I am at least considering the possibility. It's really the cardio and durability that are keeping me off more than the skill gap.
Michael Chiesa defeats Kevin Holland Result:
This is an interesting clash of styles and a matchup of guys who have some question marks coming into this one. Chiesa's activity has sort of fallen off a cliff over the last few years and injuries have played a role in that. It's hard to say how healthy he is and even if he is 100%, how long has that been the case and how long has he been able to be fully training lately? With that said, he does bring the style that has given Holland issues in the past. Chiesa is going to grapple hard and even with the improvements we've seen from Holland, I have to think Chiesa is going to be able to hit some takedowns. Chiesa does have his problems with getting submitted and Holland does have some submissions at his disposal, so it wouldn't completely shock me I guess, but I'm not really feeling a Holland submission. Holland is coming off of some injuries of his own though. He's a much better striker, he's faster, and he's bigger. He's just going to have to stay off of his back. The interesting part for me is that Chiesa isn't the kind of wrestler who's just going to run after Holland until he gets ahold of him. He's more methodical and basically won't engage until he's ready to close the distance. I do see a scenario where Chiesa is just never able to get in and he loses a decision based off of low kicks and jabs. Where I ultimately come down on Chiesa is that we've seen him out grapple much better wrestlers than Kevin Holland by a significant margin. I have to think Chiesa can get some top time here and might be able to find a submission of his own.
Bets to consider: Chiesa ML +124
With everything I just said, I think you have to take a shot on Chiesa at +124. There's a lot of unknown on both sides, but I feel like I have to side with the guy who has a massive grappling edge at plus money. It wouldn't surprise me if Holland knocks him out or is able to keep him on the outside, but I'll have a shot on Chiesa in this one.
Bobby Green defeats Tony Ferguson Result:
This fight is causing me physical discomfort. What we've seen happen to Tony Ferguson over the last few years is almost tragic. The fact of the matter is that Tony just isn't the guy he used to be in almost any way. He is showing his age in every facet. He physically looks older, he's slower, he's creativity is gone, his durability is fading, and he's tapping out to guillotines now. That's just not the guy we once knew and loved. If anything, I suppose Tony could still have his cardio and he's still a tough guy, but that's not enough to win fights like this anymore. Bobby Green is getting older in his own right, but I think he's just much more equipped to win this fight. He could probably wrestle some if he wanted to, but I highly doubt he does. Bobby is going to be a lot faster, he's more solid defensively, and he'll throw volume. He probably touches Tony up and I don't doubt he could finish him if he really tried. Bobby is never really the guy to step on the gas though, but maybe the referee just steps in out of pity at some point. I hope we get to see Tony turn the clock back one more time and give us something or at least shades of what we used to see from him, but at this point, I would be pretty surprised if he did.
Bets to consider: U2.5 rounds +106
This is kind of a weird betting spot. I don't think you can really look to bet Bobby at over -300 though. He's aging too and was finished himself not too long ago. I'm sure Tony could clip him with an elbow or do something wild. With that said, I don't think I can bet Tony this time. It is +300, so I don't hate anyone taking a shot, but I can't this time. I would rather play the under. I think we see a high output fight and Tony's defense really isn't there. Bobby should be able to land and based on what we saw last time from Tony, I'm not really sure that he won't go down this time.
Marcos Rogerio de Lima defeats Derrick Lewis Result:
This one kind of hurts as well. We all sort of know the story with Lewis at this point. If he punches you, he probably wins, if he doesn't, he probably loses. It's just starting to feel like the likelihood of him connecting is starting to dwindle. He just seems like he's starting to really show his age these days. He seems a bit slower and a bit stiffer than he was even a couple of years ago. His durability is fading, he's never had the best cardio, and it just seems like his explosiveness isn't really there anymore. He still obviously has enough power to register knockouts against almost anybody, but I just don't really feel like he generates the chances as often anymore. De Lima isn't a particularly exciting fighter, but he's very steady. He can likely grapple Lewis somewhat easily if he tries. He's been pretty durable and has power of his own. I think he probably has a speed edge at this stage as well. Lewis did look good at the weigh ins so maybe he's a better version of himself, but I don't really think that's the case. I think the low kicks from de Lima probably do good work in this fight as well. With Lewis, it always comes down to if he lands or not, but in what is a noticeable step down in comparison to what Lewis has been fighting over the last however many years, I still don't really like this matchup for him.
Bets to consider: de Lima ITD -150
I mean, it's just anything to shave the number down. This fight isn't going the distance and I do like de Lima by a fair amount. He can certainly submit him and he can certainly knock Lewis out as well. Lewis has sort of been finding his way out of fights these days as well. I hope Lewis can find a way and I don't really hate anyone taking a shot on him, but I can't make myself do it this time.
Jan Blachowicz defeats Alex Pereira Result:
This is a tremendous fight, obviously. I feel mildly ok about Jan though. The point everyone is making is Jan's ability to grapple and that is clearly there. Jan is a much, much better grappler. Pereira was getting out grappled by Andreas Michalidis not too long ago and while I'm sure working with Glover is helping, I don't think he's closed that gap. For me though, I think Jan's ability to compete in the striking is being underrated. We know Alex is the better pure kickboxer and I'm sure his power is going to translate just fine, but I don't think the difference in striking is night and day. Jan is one of the only larger fighters who checks low kicks and throws really good low kicks of his own. We're not too far removed from Jan going strike for strike with Izzy. On top of that, Pereira is coming up a weight class only a few months after being brutally put out cold. Jan has some power of his own. Alex has a small advantage at range, but the grappling upside and the few questions surrounding Pereira have me feeling decent about Jan coming into this one.
Bets to consider: Blachowicz ML -108
I just don't really think Pereira's KO equity is enough to make this a 50/50 fight. The grappling is enough for me to think Jan needs to be a small to medium sized favorite. One takedown could legitimately be the end of the fight. Jan is going to be able to compete standing, so in my opinion, he needs to be favored.
Dustin Poirier defeats Justin Gaethje Result:
This fight is almost guaranteed to be a back and forth war, but there are a few things that have me on the Poirier side. We saw him win the first matchup between these two, but I'm not really putting too much stock into that here. I think Poirier is the better technical boxer and if they are going to engage in the pocket, I think Dustin is just a bit cleaner. Gaethje had a lot of success with his low kicks last time, but he has sort of gone away from them a bit recently, which is a slight concern. I think Dustin is slightly more durable at this stage as well. Gaethje is getting hurt in almost every one of his fights at this point, I think more so because his defense just isn't there. Dustin doesn't defend strikes well either, but he has held up a bit better recently. It is really hard to narrow down a prediction though because they're just going to bite down on their mouth pieces and trade from the opening bell. While I do favor Dustin, it's hard to feel good about it.
Bets to consider: U2.5 rounds +102
To see this under at 2.5 and plus money seems like a decent spot. There's really no other way for this fight to go than for them to just try to slug it out. If that's the fight I'm getting, then I almost have to take the shot right? I know it went over the first time, but I don't think that's a reliable outcome this time. Two aging guys with huge power, lackluster defense, and high output sounds like a recipe to go under 2.5 rounds somewhat consistently.
That's it for me on this one. Thanks for reading, have a good one, and enjoy the card.
Official Bets
Miranda Maverick ITD .5 units at +135 to win .68 units
Michael Chiesa ML .5 units at +124 to win .62 units
Marcos Rogerio de Lima ITD 1 unit at -150 to win .67 units
Jan Blachowicz ML 1.08 units at -108 to win 1 unit
Poirier/Gaethje U2.5 rounds .75 units at +102 to win .77 units
Comments
Post a Comment