We're back with another UFC card in London and it's kind of a strangely put together event. We're getting the return of Tom Aspinall who I am a huge fan of. It will be almost a year to the day and luckily for him, the heavyweight division doesn't move very fast, so he hasn't really lost a ton of positioning at the top of the division. The card behind him is what is sort of strange. There's a lot of pretty decent fights, but nothing really stands out. Molly McCann is in the co-main and while she's popular, especially in London, the kinds of opponents she can be competitive with just aren't really co-main level fighters. I don't know if this card will be awesome, but it certainly shouldn't be bad either. Just to be clear, my picks will be in the bolded font, and the real results will be listed next to it in italics after the fight is official. Official bets will be at the bottom. Bets are now being officially tracked at BetMMA as well.
Jafel Filho defeats Daniel Barez Result:
This should end up being a pretty close fight to kick off the afternoon for us. I have a hard time imagining this isn't competitive, but if it was one sided, I guess I would assume it goes Filho's way? On the feet, this is probably back and forth. I think Barez may be a better striker, but it's hard to tell. His level of competition is just so limited that it's hard to really buy into anything. At the same time, I don't really trust his output or his gas tank. Filho has similar concerns in a lot of ways. I don't think his striking is great and his volume isn't really there either. His cardio is also pretty poor. The potential to grapple is what has me on his side though. Barez just doesn't stop takedowns well and in a fight where the margins are pretty slim everywhere else, I think there's a chance that some takedowns and top time can swing these rounds in Filho's favor. I don't think the striking gap is wide enough in Barez's favor to really sway me towards him and his holes are pretty glaring. Filho has his own, but his ability to get takedowns has me backing him.
Bets to consider: O2.5 rounds -106
This is kind of a dangerous bet to make, but it is sort of interesting. Having two guys with cardio issues is always interesting. Either one guy can just death gas and get finished because of it or they fight hard for a round and then the pace nose dives and they clinch to a decision. I think Filho could probably ride out this fight from top position and this fight probably goes over. I don't think this fight really has the pace to finish consistently either. I am kind of expecting a slow paced kick boxing match with Filho mixing in some grappling. I may take a shot on this, especially if we get some favorable movement.
Bruna Brasil defeats Shauna Bannon Result:
This one is probably going to end up looking pretty messy. In short, I'm not overly impressed with either woman in this spot and it sort of feels like whoever gets top position in the grappling probably ends up winning this fight. Bannon is making her UFC debut and there's really not a whole lot there in my estimation. She has what seems to be a serviceable ground game, but her wrestling just isn't there to consistently get takedowns. Her striking doesn't seem to be anything special either and her power is visibly absent in a division that isn't known for heavy hitters to begin with. Then we get to Brasil who might only be marginally better. She'll probably end up being competitive in the striking from an offensive standpoint, but her defense leaves a lot to be desired. It's not so much that she has poor striking defense, but she just doesn't defend strikes really at all. I do think that Brasil can get takedowns here though. If she does, she probably has quite a bit of success and would likely win the fight comfortably. I have no real confidence in her to follow that plan, but I do have to pick her this time out.
Bets to consider: U2.5 rounds +210
With the amount of unknowns in this fight, I feel like having the under at +210 might be the move. On the Brasil side, I think she has the chance to really get going from top position. This is a huge step up for Bannon and it wouldn't surprise me if we found out this is just a level of competition beyond her skill. At the same time, with Brasil's disregard for defense, it is certainly in play for her to be finished. It would only be a small poke, but at +210, you don't really need much to go right to cover the price. I'm undecided on if I'll play it, but leaning to no as of right now.
Chris Duncan defeats Yanal Ashmouz Result:
This fight may end up being an interesting watch or it could go pretty sideways. I kind of think Duncan is the better fighter here in almost every aspect. He's a much better grappler with much better cardio without a doubt. I think he's a much better striker from a technical standpoint as well. The biggest downside to Duncan is that he gets hit too much and he isn't the most durable guy in the world. That will definitely leave the door open for an Ashmouz KO, but if he doesn't get it, his path seems pretty narrow. His defensive grappling really just isn't there and if Duncan comes out prepared to wrestle heavily, Ashmouz probably ends up in a pretty bad spot. Even striking, Ashmouz has power, but he doesn't really do much beyond that. He'll get wild and chuck some really wide shots, but that's about the extent of his game at the moment. He also has defensive deficiencies and his cardio is weaker in this fight. Ashmouz has a shot at an early KO, but after round 1, his chances will start to dwindle pretty badly.
Bets to consider: Duncan ML -146
Duncan's lack of defense does make this one a bit sketchy, but he really shouldn't be -150 in this fight. I just think the skill gap is so wide that any shot of an Ashmouz KO is washed out by Duncan being better in almost every way. He could get himself knocked out and it wouldn't surprise me one bit. If he doesn't, he really should win very consistently.
Ketlen Vieira defeats Pannie Kianzad Result:
I don't really expect this fight to be that interesting. I also don't really have any strong takes. I guess if this fight takes place in boxing range then Pannie could look decent? It's just if it doesn't, I'm not really sure it goes her way. I think Pannie is the better striker, but she'll be at a size and length disadvantage at range. Ketlen also has more power, which I think is enough to potentially sway the judges if we get otherwise competitive rounds striking. It's just the potential for Ketlen to grapple that has me thinking that this is her fight. She's bigger and stronger, so she should be able to control clinch exchanges, which we've seen Pannie have trouble with before. If Vieira can get the fight to the ground, we've also seen in the past that Pannie doesn't really offer all that much from her back. If Pannie gets her perfect fight, then she'll have a shot, but otherwise, Vieira probably is ok.
Bets to consider: Vieira ML -146
I don't know that there is a ton of value left to be extracted here, but I would much rather be on this side than on Kianzad. I feel like the amount of advantages that Ketlen has in this fight really should make her a larger favorite, but at the same time, it's kind of hard to trust. It's sort of a weird spot and I don't think I'll actually pull the trigger on it, but I have a feeling we could be going to bed Saturday night thinking Vieira was the value side.
Makhmud Muradov defeats Bryan Barberena Result:
I think everyone is sort of on the same page that Barberena is very clearly and very rapidly declining. He's just not the same guy he used to be and this matchup doesn't really seem like an especially beneficial one for him. Muradov is bigger, longer, faster, has better power, better grappling, and better defense. Barberena wants to strike and while at least Muradov will give him that, his only real edge is volume. That is something, but it comes with so little power that I don't really think it's going to be enough to overcome every disadvantage he is at. Muradov is probably going to be able to stay on the outside and land whatever he wants. I'm not really trusting Barberena's durability much these days either. Barberena probably does have the better cardio and if he can survive early, maybe he can make a push down the stretch, but I don't really see it. Muradov could grapple here if he wants to and we've seen how much Barberena has struggled there over the years, but I don't really expect Muradov to take that path this time. I feel pretty good about him standing nonetheless though.
Bets to consider: U2.5 rounds -118
I think the under is an ok look in this one. Barberena is going to force a high pace, high action kind of fight. I don't think a finish on his side is especially likely just because of the technical gaps and I don't really think his power is all that great, but he could just melt Muradov with pace at some point I guess. Muradov could also very well finish in this one. Barberena has no defense and I think his chin is deteriorating. Muradov has power and he is going to land clean shots. Wouldn't go heavy on it, but I think it's a decent look.
Jamal Pogues defeats Mick Parkin Result:
This is a pretty ugly fight. I really don't know what to make of Parkin. It's not that he hasn't shown anything per se, but the level of competition he's fought really just doesn't make me feel confident that he will have skills that translate to real competition. He has some power and I feel confident in that. I suppose he can grapple a bit, but I'm skeptical in that regard. His defense isn't very good, which is becoming a theme on this card I guess. I also don't trust his gas at all. Pogues isn't a favorite of mine either, but I do think he has a more well defined skill set that we can rely on. He's probably a better striker and he's certainly faster. I think he's probably the better grappler as well. I don't think his cardio is amazing, but it is definitely better than Parkin's. Maybe he's slightly undersized for the division and if Parkin did get on top of him, I guess that could play a factor, but it's not a huge size discrepancy. I think this fight is probably pretty slow and then we see Pogues pull away around the half way point after Parkin starts to slow. The gap isn't wide enough for Pogues to run Parkin out of the octagon, but I do think he is a bit better in most regards.
Bets to consider: Pogues ML -158
I wish the number were slightly better, but I think there's still some value on Pogues. I'm just not really convinced that Mick Parkin is a UFC level fighter. Besides power, I just don't think there's any real reliable skill that Parkin can bring that I am confident will translate to this level. Betting Pogues at -160 does make me feel a bit uncomfortable, but he really does hold most advantages. He has better cardio and I know he's a better grappler. I think that is probably enough and he probably holds a smaller striking edge too.
Joel Alvarez defeats Marc Diakiese Result:
This is a weird fight and I'm not really sure how I should feel about it. I do sort of like Alvarez more than I probably should overall. His striking is kind of hit or miss. A lot of his game is hit or miss to be honest. He has an ok submission game, but he's not a good wrestler, so I don't really expect him to be hitting takedowns in this one. I don't really trust his cardio that much either. On the Diakiese side, he's just so unpredictable. It feels like he's a completely different fighter from fight to fight at times, which makes him really hard to pick or bet on. I feel confident saying that he could take Alvarez down, but I don't know that he should. That would be putting him right into the most dangerous part of Joel's game. Standing, it is probably competitive-ish. Alvarez doesn't defend strikes well and Diakiese is a fairly decent striker with real power. Alvarez probably has better output on the feet. I'll give him a slight edge just based on the danger component of his game, but I don't feel good about it.
Bets to consider: O2.5 rounds +144
As this line grows, betting Diakiese has become more and more tempting. The one thing I can't really get over is just that I think Alvarez's ability to finish this fight is significantly higher. That's an aspect that I think I overlook and I don't want to get burned by that here. Going with the over does come with a risk, but it is an interesting number. Neither guy really fights with much of a pace, so I'm not really expecting a wild fight. I don't think I can actually play it, but it does seem like the kind of fight where it either ends inside the first round or it ends up going to decision.
Danny Roberts defeats Jonny Parsons Result:
I'm starting to run out of time, so we're going to shorten these up a little. This fight sort of comes down to whatever Roberts has left in the tank to me. If we're getting a mostly intact version of Roberts, then he is the better fighter in almost every aspect. If we're not getting that version, then it is going to be a much more interesting fight. I can't say I am overly impressed with Parsons. He seems like an ok striker and he has some power, but that's about it. Roberts could probably grapple if he really wanted to, but I suspect he doesn't. Roberts is the better striker, but he just hasn't been looking as good lately and it seems like his durability is starting to fade as well. Parsons can swing in the pocket, so if that's what we get, it could really go either way. I'll take Roberts based on his overall experience and more proven skills though.
Bets to consider: U2.5 rounds -145
It's a bigger number than I'll typically play on over/unders, but it feels like the only reliable way to play this one. If both guys are going to do what they normally do, then they'll trade until someone goes down. I think Roberts is the better striker, but he is going to get hit at some point. When he does, I'm not sure I really trust him to stay upright. If he can, he really should be able to connect with his own and he has more than enough power to finish as well.
Davey Grant defeats Daniel Marcos Result:
For me, I kind of expect this fight to be fairly competitive standing. Marcos will have better volume while he's fresh and he does have some power as well. When you combine that with the fact that Grant is fairly hittable and it seems like he's starting to show his age a little more, that isn't a great recipe for Grant. However, I just don't really trust the grappling or cardio of Marcos. Those are two things that I think are still very much intact for Grant. He could probably take Marcos down and look pretty good from top position. I think it is likely that Grant looks better late in the fight as well. It's just a matter of if Grant can stay in it. He could very well get knocked out here, but if he doesn't, I actually think I prefer his experience and better all around skill set. He maintains his output deeper into fights where I think Marcos could have an edge early and then see it fall off late.
Bets to consider: Grant ML +124
I do get Grant being a dog to a degree. He's aging and he hasn't looked his best lately. However, I do think he is a more well rounded fighter with more paths to victory in this fight. I just kind of feel like this is a spot to take a shot. He's much more experienced and I have very real questions about Marcos. The under at plus money is interesting as well. If Grant is shot then he probably ends up getting finished himself. If he isn't, I think he can put it on Marcos and finish him later in the second or early third. Maybe that is a better way to play it for some.
Lerone Murphy defeats Josh Culibao Result:
I think this is actually a pretty decent spot for Murphy. When Murphy has struggled, it's been against grappling heavy fighters. Culibao may try that kind of game plan, but if he does, I don't really suspect that he has a ton of success. I think it is more likely that Culibao decides to strike and if he does that, he probably puts himself behind the 8 ball. I think Murphy is a better technical striker with better output. Culibao's striking his very reliant on his power to create fight changing moments and it's not like you could completely rule that out here, but in a matchup where he is at a technical disadvantage, I think it becomes a lot less likely for him. Murphy probably just out works him in this fight.
Bets to consider: Murphy ML -146
This is sort of a tough one to bet. I do like this spot for Murphy, but I'm not sure the margins will be super wide. Murphy is going to throw and land more volume, but the danger component of Culibao's game does give me at least a little cause for concern. I'm not sure that I want to jump in at this price even though I think this is Murphy's fight to lose.
Fares Ziam defeats Jai Herbert Result:
This fight might end up being ok or it could end up being a boring one, depending on how Ziam wants to approach it. If he wanted to, then he could probably take Herbert down and handle him in the grappling, but I'm not so sure he actually wants to do that. If it stays standing, then Herbert will have a chance. Both guys do a lot of the same things in the striking. They both like to use their length and stay on the outside. Herbert probably has the better power and that is going to be his key to getting a win. He either has to finish or land big shots to swing rounds. I think Ziam is a bit better technically and is better defensively. The big issue for Herbert standing is that his durability just isn't there and he's only getting closer to 40. I think a kickboxing match is competitive for the most part, but the durability concerns maake me lean the Ziam way. Add in that he has the potential to have grappling success and I feel decent about him in this spot.
Bets to consider: Ziam ML -162
I think I kind of missed the boat on Ziam a bit. The line has sort of grown out to the point where it may actually start to get wide, but I don't really want to play Herbert. His holes are just too well known at this point for me to have much interest. Being at a grappling disadvantage with a deteriorating chin just makes paths to victory too narrow for me to want to jump in on at this stage.
Andre Muniz defeats Paul Craig Result:
If Paul Craig submits Andre Muniz then I really just don't know what to say. I think Muniz is pretty much better everywhere. The striking in this fight is going to be ugly, but I still think Muniz is better. In the grappling, Craig gets a lot of weird and/or random submissions, but he's not much of a wrestler and I just don't think he's going to triangle someone of Muniz's caliber from the bottom. Muniz can probably take Craig down and either ride him out on top or do some damage there. I don't know if he'll submit Craig, but he can probably do some damage with ground and pound. I don't really see too much of a path here for Craig. He could get some takedowns of his own, but I think Muniz is plenty good enough in that spot to get himself into better positions or find submissions of his own. Paul Craig has made a career of winning fights like this though, so we'll see.
Bets to consider: O1.5 rounds -122
I might end up regretting this one, but I think the over 1.5 is a fine spot. Neither is going to present any danger on the feet. When this fight hits the mat, I think we could see both guys show some respect for each other and maybe be a bit cautious. I think both guys are good enough from top or bottom that neither side is going to lock up a submission right off the bat. I might end up playing this one.
Nathaniel Wood defeats Andre Fili Result:
This is kind of a weird fight to me. On one hand, I do like Nathaniel Wood in this spot, but on the other, I feel like Fili is being slightly overlooked. On the feet, I think this one gets pretty good. I like the output, speed, and low kicks from Wood at range. With Fili, he is going to have a noticeable size advantage and I think that could give Wood some problems. Wood has taken too much damage at times as well and that could be a problem as Fili does have some pop. The separating factor for me is Wood's ability to grapple. I think Wood could have success there in this fight and he probably should go to it. I'm not so sure he will, so I couldn't make him a huge favorite, but I do prefer him slightly.
Bets to consider: Fili ML +164
While I do prefer Wood, I just think we see a much closer fight than what this line suggests. If we get a 15 minute kickboxing match, the I think Fili covers this price pretty easily. I just don't know how often he actually gets the win. The grappling is what is holding me back though, so I don't know if I will actually be able to play it.
Molly McCann Julija Stoliarenko Result:
I don't really know what to make of this one. The one thing I do know is if this fight hits the mat, it's going to be Stoliarenko on top and Molly is going to be in trouble. Her grappling isn't good at any level. She doesn't stop takedowns and she's just not very good off of her back. Stoliarenko isn't a particularly good wrestler, but I'm not sure she has to be. She does have some submissions though and she could probably lock one up if she has extended top time. On the feet, I certainly prefer Molly, but I don't think it is a night and day difference. She's much larger and will have the reach advantage. Her striking doesn't stand out, but I don't think it is as bad as some people are suggesting. Molly takes damage, so Julija should be able to land some. The differences for me are the cardio and output for Molly. She's going to put a lot more out there to be judged and she isn't going to slow late. It feels like Stoliarenko needs to have a lot of success early because if this fight extends, she's going to slow down and that's when Molly is going to turn it up on her. I have to pick Molly, but it is hard to feel good picking her against anyone who can grapple even a little bit.
Bets to consider: Stoliarenko ML +172
Given the potential for Julija to have significant grappling success here, I think you have to at least consider playing her at +172. Molly's history of grappling problems is long and while Stoliarenko isn't Erin Blanchfield, I'm not sure she needs to be. If she can get a takedown, she should be fine on top. She isn't a great wrestler, but with how easily Molly gets taken down, it's hard to imagine her stuffing every single attempt. I normally don't like betting fighters with known cardio issues, but at +172, I think that is taken into account a bit already.
Tom Aspinall defeats Marcin Tybura Result:
Tom Aspinall is going to be ok in this fight. I just don't think there's really much of an angle for Tybura here. The athletic gap is so significant that it's really hard for me to imagine that Tybura can get this fight where he needs to be. We don't know what Aspinall's cardio looks like deep into fights and Tybura does have decent cardio for a big guy. However, I really don't think we get to that point. Aspinall is so much faster and more powerful that I think he probably knocks him out early. I don't think Tybura can get him down early either. Tybura's standing defense is too porous to hold up against someone with the power and speed of Tom. I just think Tom knocks him out pretty quickly in this fight.
Bets to consider: Aspinall by KO -150
I'm not the guy to play juiced props, but this is really the only way to play it for me. I just really think this is how the fight goes. I guess unless Tom is still not 100%, but I have no reason to believe that. I'm not really sure what the path for Marcin is to not get knocked out to be honest. I can't imagine him just eating bombs and somehow surviving an onslaught and we know his defense isn't at the level where he can just avoid the big strikes forever. I think I'm actually going to lay this number.
That's it for me on this one. Thanks for reading, have a good afternoon, and enjoy the fights. Official Bets are below
Official Bets
Chris Duncan ML 1.48 units at -148 to win 1 unit
Muradov/Barberena U2.5 rounds .75 units at -118 to win .64 units
Jamal Pogues ML 1 unit at -158 to win .63 units
Davey Grant ML .75 units at +124 to win .93 units
Muniz/Craig O1.5 rounds .75 units -122 to win .61 units
Julija Stoliarenko ML .5 units at +172 to win .86 units
Tom Aspinall by KO 1.5 units at -150 to win 1 unit
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