Last week was kind of a strange experience. The overall card felt a bit on the slow side, but there were some fantastic moments. My bets were not one of them, but that aside, I thought we at least got a pretty good ending to the end. Ian Garry looked tremendous, Zhang Weili looked unbeatable, and Sean O'Malley did exactly what he said he was going to do. It almost feels surreal to see Sean as champion after all this time and he has so many potential options moving forward that it really does feel like the sky is the limit for him right now. He'll have to get through some tough matchups for him with a rematch with Aljo, the Merab fight, and a potential Henry Cejudo fight out there for him, but the path is there for him to be a bigger star than he already is. We move on to this week which is a sneaky good Fight Night. We get a weird start time with it being in Singapore, but I'll take a good non-PPV event whenever we can. Just to be clear, my picks will be in the bolded font, and the real results will be listed next to it in italics after the fight is official. Official bets will be at the bottom. Bets are now being officially tracked at BetMMA as well.
Seung Woo Choi defeats Jarno Errens Result:
We should have an exciting enough fight to kick things off with this one. This is Errens' second fight in the UFC and I can't say I was particularly impressed with his debut or with a ton of what he has shown before that. It's not that he's absolutely horrible or anything, but his game is a bit limited without a lot of the big upside. His striking is just kind of ok at best and without huge power, his upside standing is pretty limited. His volume isn't great and his defense has been pretty porous at times. His grappling is his real weakness though and I think he can get washed there by a lot of even bottom third of the roster in that department. Choi isn't necessarily a grappler and has had his struggles there at times as well, but he's much more polished at this stage of his career. He can probably get takedowns here if he wants them. I like Choi standing as well. I think he's a better all around striker and he'll have more power. and better output. This feels like a nice spot for Choi to bounce back from a bad losing streak.
Bets to consider: Choi ML -154
Betting Choi at juice isn't something I'm necessarily super excited to do, but this does feel a bit sort. Choi is a more refined fighter right now and probably just better. He has more high level experience against legitimate competition as well. Choi is on a losing streak, but to either much better or at least much more dangerous opponents than Errens. I think Choi could probably be closer to -190 or -200 in this fight, especially if he decides to incorporate some grappling.
JJ Aldrich defeats Liang Na Result:
This fight probably ends up being entertaining just because it will get wild, but I'm not particularly excited for it beyond that. At this point, we know what Liang Na is going to do. She's going to come out and empty the tank for the first 3 minutes and if she doesn't finish the fight, she'll gas out and lose badly. She has power and she is a dangerous enough grappler that I suppose it is possible that she can put Aldrich in a tough spot, but if she doesn't finish it, that's pretty much the fight. Aldrich isn't the type of fighter that I love to plant my flag on their side too heavily just because a lack of physicality, explosiveness, and danger is a recipe for a lot of close fights, but she really should be fine. She just has to not do anything ridiculous for half a round and then Na will be gassed out. She's not anything crazy special, but she's well rounded enough that she should be able to finish, probably in the second round. Her striking defense is a bit worrisome, but I can't really buy into Na finishing this fight in 2 minutes.
Bets to consider: Aldrich ITD -165
Betting juiced women's MMA to finish inside the distance is probably a safe way to lose money, but I think this one might be the exception. Na just isn't really capable of making it to a decision. She doesn't have the cardio and even if she did, she doesn't even try to conserve her energy. Aldrich will put the volume on her standing if the fight extends or take her down and finish the fight there. I find it hard to believe Na finishes this fight early and find it even harder to believe she can make it to a decision.
Billy Goff defeats Yusaku Kinoshita Result:
This fight is a confusing one for me. I liked Kinoshita before his last fight and most of the things I liked are still there, but that was a tough look for him. I like Kinoshita's striking and prefer it here. I think he's more technical and should look pretty good on the counters in this fight. His hands are fast and he has real power. My biggest concern is that we sort of get a replay of his last fight where his opponent just sort of grinds on him. I believe Goff has the skill set to potentially do just that. Goff is pretty well rounded. I don't know if his striking is clean enough to go strike for strike with Kinoshita, but his output should allow him to at least compete. I think he has the grappling to grind on Kinoshita and the gas tank to execute that plan over a full 15 minutes. We have seen him hurt before multiple times, so I am at least a bit worried that Kinoshita can snipe him from the outside early, but if he doesn't, I think the pace, pressure, and cardio of Goff breaks him down.
Bets to consider: Goff ML +116
I'm not really looking to bet this fight as things currently stand. I guess if I had to, I would lean the Goff ML The line isn't great though. This fight seems more or less even to me, with Goff having a better chance the farther this fight extends. I would just stay clear of this one and let it play out though.
Rolando Bedoya defeats Song Kenan Result:
This is a fight that is kind of strange and I can't same I'm really looking forward to. I didn't think that much of Bedoya going into his last fight and while he did look better than I expected, it's not like it flipped my entire perspective on him. He's still kind of just one dimensional. He's got some power and his striking isn't terrible, but that's not exactly a great skill set to consistently win high level fights. With that said, Song Kenan isn't setting the world on fire either. He is probably going to give Bedoya the fight he's looking for, which isn't especially likely to go his way. Song isn't much of a grappler and while Bedoya might be able to be taken advantage of there, Song isn't the guy. On the feet, if the two decided to just trade, Song would have a chance. I just think Bedoya may have more tools with his kicks and will be able to sustain his output deeper into the fight. I also trust Bedoya's durability a bit more.
Bets to consider: U2.5 rounds -120
Bedoya being out at -300 is probably a bit wide, but I'm not really looking to send it on Song Kenan either. I do think he is a bit better, but just not by this wide of a margin. I think I would rather be on the under here. Both guys have power and they're going to strike. If they decide to brawl, then someone is probably going to go down. Bedoya is probably more equipped to have success from the outside and maybe he just low kicks his way to a decision, but I do kind of think we get at least a few heavy exchanges in this one.
Michal Oleksiejczuk defeats Chidi Njokuani Result:
This fight will probably be a decent one to watch. The most likely scenario is that we get a kick boxing match and if we do, that should be pretty cool. Both guys are pretty solid there, but I do like Michal a little bit more. He fights with a better pace and he has much better cardio. I think he may have a bit better power as well. Over 15 minutes, I think Michal would probably out work Chidi pretty consistently. My worries are that I think Chidi is a better defensive fighter and he is a more well rounded fighter. Chidi is a more well rounded kick boxer, where Michal is more of just a boxer. If Chidi can use his kicks to keep this fight all the way on the outside, he could have some success. Additionally, we know how bad Michal's grappling is and Chidi does have skills on the mat, he's just not much of a wrestler. What ultimately has me siding with Michal though is that we know Chidi's cardio just isn't going to hold up. Even if Chidi is able to do some or all of those things early, I just don't think he will be able to sustain it long enough. Michal is going to keep bringing the fight and I think he can probably end up finishing this fight at some point.
Bets to consider: O1.5 rounds -102
I think the over 1.5 would be the most interesting way to play this fight. I think Michal finishing this fight largely comes after Chidi gasses out. If Chidi does his thing standing, he should be able to maintain his cardio to at least the half way point. If Chidi grapples, that is where the over gets in trouble. He could just end up destroying Michal on the ground the way others have in the past and if he doesn't, he probably uses a vast majority of his gas tank and gets himself finished quickly after. I'm just passing on this fight though.
Garrett Armfield defeats Toshiomi Kazama Result:
This fight is another one where I'm not really sure what to make of it. I'm not particularly high on Armfield, but I do feel like he has to be the more reliable side in this fight. There's part of me that thinks he may just have Kazama completely covered, but I'm still not ready to buy in. Kazama just hasn't fought any reliable competition in his career for me to really get a solid read on him. His ground game seems ok, but I don't really trust his wrestling. His striking doesn't seem to be that great either and I don't really trust his output. Despite me thinking that Armfield has limited upside in the long run, I think I have to be on his side until Kazama can prove otherwise. Armfield may be able to just win this fight on top time or just out work him at range.
Bets to consider: O1.5 -172
This is another pass spot for me. The over is a bit juiced, but I guess it's not the worst look in the world. Both of these fighters seem lower level to me, which can sometimes be the recipe for quick finishes, but I think they're also kind of evenly matched. I don't trust either side enough to actually pull the trigger at a number like this, but I do feel like it goes over at a very high rate.
Waldo Cortes Acosta defeats Lukasz Brzeski Result:
This is an interesting fight where I'm not fully sure what we'll see. I have been too low on Acosta since he officially joined the UFC and this spot is a bit weird for him. I think he has some clear advantages in this fight. He's a better striker and his cardio is clearly better. Acosta does a good job of fighting behind his jab, which isn't typical for heavyweight. He is able to push pretty good pace. Beyond that, he's a bit limited, but he's held up better than I initially anticipated. He struggles with low kicks and his grappling isn't all that great either. Brzeski has his issues, but he is kind of fun. His cardio isn't good, but he is somehow able to push through it pretty well. On the feet, he's not as clean, but he does throw volume out there. He can probably keep the fight competitive as long as he doesn't gas horribly. Brzeski also has the potential to grapple in this fight. Acosta isn't much of a grappler and I wouldn't necessarily say Brzeski is either, but he has done it before and if he could get on top, he could probably have some success. It's really the cardio dynamic that makes me still have to go with Acosta, but I think this fight may be closer than people are giving it credit for.
Bets to consider: Brzeski ML +180
This isn't a super hot take or something I'm ready to pound the table for, but I think this line is probably wide. It's not that I have an incredible amount of confidence that Brzeski pulls off the upset consistently, but I do feel like this is going to be a competitive fight for the most part. I am leaning towards not making the move just because I don't really trust Brzeski, but I'm thinking about it.
Parker Porter defeats Junior Tafa Result:
This is a weird fight, but I don't think we'll be seeing this one go to decision. I feel decent about Porter in this one as the style matchup does favor him. Porter just fights a much more reliable style. He's the better all around fighter in almost every way. Some people would say Tafa is a better technical striker and I don't think I agree, but it's also not clear on the other side. What Porter does have on the feet is his aggression and volume. He's going to bring the fight and he'll put a lot out there. The concern is that Porter gets himself knocked out. We've seen it a few times now and, if nothing else, Tafa does have power. Porter is also getting up there in age now as well. The issue for Tafa is that his grappling might be the worst in the entire UFC. Porter really should be able to just take him down and finish without too much of an issue. Porter also has the much better cardio. It's just the durability and age that are the only drawbacks in this matchup for him.
Bets to consider: Porter ML +126
I'm not really sure how we get to Porter being an underdog here. I get that Tafa could knock him out, but I don't think that outcome is so likely that he needs to be at -150. The cardio dynamic is enough for me to make him a small favorite, but the grappling disparity is so wide that this line is pretty clearly wrong. I don't think you can make Porter a huge favorite just because his age and his history of durability, not problems, but questions, but making him +130 just doesn't make a ton of sense to me.
Erin Blanchfield defeats Taila Santos Result:
I'm having a hard time determining what I actually think about this fight. It's probably the best fight on the entire card and it should be a good one. The reason that I do lean the Blanchfield side is that I think she's improving everywhere and because of her cardio. Her striking has looked improved in every fight and actually looked good in the last one. Her grappling is where she normally makes her money, but I'm not really expecting her to have a ton of success there. Santos is huge and very strong, so I think she can probably defend a lot of the takedowns, at least early on. Santos probably won't have any grappling success of her own either. Santos has some really good power of her own and while she's on the lower volume side, she could end up doing real damage when she connects. It's just that her cardio is unreliable and she's going to slow down at some point. When Santos slows, Blanchfield is going to put her foot on the gas and that's really all I have to go off of for this fight. It should be a good one.
Bets to consider: Santos ML +130
This is going to end up being a pass spot for me in all likelihood. However, if I had to pick a side, it would have to be Santos at +130. This fight seems so even that whichever side got the plus money would have been of interest to me. The physicality of Santos leads me to believe she can keep this fight standing and we've seen Blanchfield take damage at times. With her power, if Santos can land, she can do some damage. It's really the cardio gap that I think this line justifiable and is keeping me from doing anything. I can't bet the under in this fight despite getting a big number either.
Rinya Nakamura defeats Fernie Garcia Result:
I don't really know why this fight is on the main card. Nakamura should probably win this fight. He's shown himself to be a pretty good wrestler and if he comes out looking for takedowns, he should be able to get them. I don't know if he would be able to submit or hold Fernie down for long stretches, but he should be able to get takedowns when he wants them. Nakamura also has really good power and has fast hands. His striking does need some work though as he relies on his speed and power a bit too much. He throws wild hooks and leaves himself open too often. If Nakamura comes out grappling heavy, he's probably going to look pretty good. If he wants to stand and trade with Fernie, he's going to put himself in harms way. I don't think Garcia is an incredible fighter, but if he has anything, he is tough. If he can take a few shots and keep fighting, he's going to have a chance to land big. He has some pop of his own and if he can land a few, he could easily put Nakamura down. While we don't know anything about Nakamura's cardio, I don't really trust Fernie's cardio either. His output isn't really there either. I have to go with Nakamura because of his upside, but Fernie will have a chance if Nakamura engages him on the feet.
Bets to consider: Garcia ML +610
This is kind of one of those spots where, I know the line is wide, but I still don't want to play it. I would be really surprised if Nakamura looks -900 in this fight. At the same time, I'm not particularly excited by the prospect of losing money on Fernie Garcia in this fight. It will be unfortunate if Garcia does knock him out and we miss it at +600, but it wouldn't be more than a dart throw.
Giga Chikadze defeats Alex Caceres Result:
We are finally getting the return of Giga Chikadze after what seems like forever. He's not getting eased back into things either as he'll have to deal with Alex Caceres. I do ultimately like Giga in this fight though. The reason I prefer Giga is mostly because of his power. Giga has decent power in his hands and has really good power in his kicks. Caceres hasn't always dealt well with kicks and if Giga starts landing his, Caceres could be in trouble. The big question with Giga is that we just haven't seen him in so long. We're assuming that he's improved and that he's actually healthy, but that doesn't necessarily have to be the case. With Caceres, he is much more reliable fight to fight. He can compete standing, but his path is based on volume. I worry that the difference in volume will be overshadowed by the gap in power that Giga is bringing though. I think Caceres better path is going to be with his grappling. If Caceres got him down, he would be able to have a ton of success. He's just never been that great of a wrestler. I think Giga can have good success with his kicks and potentially finish later in the fight.
Bets to consider: U2.5 rounds +152
I'm probably not going to play this, but I did at least think about it. Giga is going to land his kicks to the body and can probably beat up the legs as well. If he can time up a high kick then that could be the end of the night. Caceres could finish this as well on the ground. If he can get on top or get to the back then he would have a decent chance of submitting Giga. I feel like this fight is high enough paced in both ways to potentially justify a shot on the under at +150.
Anthony Smith defeats Ryan Spann Result:
I don't understand how we got here. We just saw this fight a couple of years ago and it wasn't competitive even a little bit, so now we're getting it again. I know Anthony Smith looked kind of bad his last time out, but I don't think he's cooked just yet. I just think that this matchup gives Smith so much of what he needs. Spann just doesn't really do it for me. He has the physical and athletic traits that you look for, but that's about it. He's big, strong, and fast. It's just his MMA skills lagging behind. His striking is pretty limited, his wrestling isn't horrible, but his ground game is limited to basically a guillotine, but the biggest issue is that his cardio just doesn't exist. Spann is very clearly dangerous, but it's capped to the first 3-4 minutes of the fight because if the fight gets beyond that, he just gasses and dies. He could knock Smith out for sure, but if he doesn't, I think Anthony probably runs over him without too much of an issue. He's a better striker, he has a better ground game, he has significantly better cardio, and he's probably still more durable.
Bets to consider: Smith ML +108
I understand how Smith looked in his last fight, but I don't think that completely off sets how he looked against Spann not too long ago. There's still a huge skill gap in almost every aspect. The cardio gap is enormous. The only real questions I have are in regards to Smith continuing to age and Spann's power, but I don't really understand how that makes him -130. I'll be on Smith.
Max Holloway defeats Chan Sung Jung Result:
I don't really have a ton to add that you probably haven't already read or heard. Max is probably still one of the 15 best fighters in the UFC and Korean Zombie is on his way out of the sport. Zombie is old and he's kind of showed his age in his last few fights. He's just clearly not the guy he used to be. He can still compete with a lower level of fighter, but putting him in there against Max is asking for bad things to happen. His path on the feet is pretty limited. He won't be able to keep up on volume and Max has the best chin in the history of MMA, so I don't really see Zombie putting an end to that. I don't really foresee a ton of grappling success for him either as Max is really hard to take down and even harder to keep down. Zombie doesn't have the output in general and I don't think he has the cardio anymore even if he tried. His durability is starting to fade on him as well. This seems like a pretty tough matchup for him.
Bets to consider: Holloway 4, 5, dec -120
All of the lines for this fight are pretty juiced. I don't really want anything to do with Korean Zombie in this fight. I think getting max 4, 5, decision at -120 when he's over -800 on the money line is solid. Max is throwing huge power and has never really been that guy. He's a volume based striker, so I do think this fight extends at least a little bit. I worry about Zombie's durability not allowing him
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