We were having such a good week last week until the end when Korean Zombie decided to go out on his shield a round earlier than I needed, but that's just how it goes sometimes. It was probably a fitting end to an incredible career for him. It wouldn't have been right for someone named the Zombie to just sheepishly lose a decision in their last fight. Zombie went out the way he fought his entire career and it's nothing but respect to one of the legends of the game. Unfortunately, I had some trouble getting my post to actually upload after I finished writing it. I think it was a problem with Blogger because my internet was working fine, but I just couldn't get the upload to work. I have all of the picks saved, but my bets didn't, so I have to redo that part at the end. The post is up as of now so all of the picks were there. The bets were still tracked on BetMMA so the transparency of the operation is upheld, but it is a bit annoying that I couldn't get that out there as normal. This week we are back in Paris and it brings the return of Ciryl Gane, who's really seen his stock take a hit over the last couple of years. He picked up a win over Tai Tuivasa but really got blown out of the water by Jon Jones before we really even got to register what was happening. Spivak has been on a nice run, but this does feel like a step down for Gane, so we'll see how he looks. Just to be clear, my picks will be in the bolded font, and the real results will be listed next to it in italics after the fight is official. Official bets will be at the bottom. Bets are now being officially tracked at BetMMA as well. Unfortunately just ran out of time with this one, so skipped the betting after the first two fights. We'll be back at it next week.
Jacqueline Cavalcanti defeats Zarah Fairn Result:
This is sort of an unfortunate fight to start the night with. It's really just not a UFC level fight and I think we'll see as much. Fairn just doesn't really do a whole lot to impress me. She has some degree of kickboxing ability and if we saw this fight play out at range for a full 15 minutes, she could probably look ok enough, but that's really the extent of things for her. Her grappling just really isn't there and it's not like Cavalcanti is going to be mistaken for Tatiana Suarez anytime soon, but if she goes for takedowns, she should get them and win without too much of an issue. Even on the feet, she has some pop and should be able to land some shots cleanly as Fairn's defense really isn't there either. Cavalcanti should roll in this one.
Bets to consider: U2.5 rounds +102
This, in all likelihood, is the kind of fight that you should pass on basically 10 times out of 10, but the under is the way to go if you really need money down on it. Even if women's MMA, the finishes come in these low level fights and that is what we have here. Fairn has been finished twice in the first round, both times on the ground. Cavalcanti is a solid enough grappler that I really think she could and probably should finish this fight in all sincerity. I can't bring myself to possibly lose money on a fight like this, but I do think this fight probably finishes at decent clip.
Farid Basharat defeats Kleydson Rodrigues Result:
This should be a decent enough fight. Rodrigues is coming up from 125 for the first time and he's going to be a bit undersized. Coming up should help his cardio issues a bit since he's not cutting as much, but I'm not sure that his power will translate the same way. He's already had issues grappling and dealing with heavier fighters probably isn't going to help matters there. That isn't to make Kleydson sound helpless though. His striking is decent and his power was pretty good at flyweight. If he can maintain most of his power and improve his cardio by cutting less weight, he may be able to string some wins together at 135. Basharat is probably better from a technical standpoint in almost every facet though. He's a more technical striker, especially from the outside. He fights with a pretty decent pace and even though he slows down later in fights, he is usually able to maintain a decent level of output the entire time. His biggest advantage will probably come in the wrestling though. He shoots takedowns at a high rate and he really should be able to get some here. Rodrigues has looked poor off of his back and the extra size advantage will only help Basharat in that regard. I think Farid probably ends up looking pretty good in this one.
Bets to consider: Basharat by decision -115
This isn't really an amazing number, but I don't think it's all that bad either. Basharat is creeping out towards -400 and the over 2.5 is at -200, so this number probably makes sense. This feels like one where you might be ok to just lay the minus number though. Basharat holds most of the advantages and I wouldn't say he's inherently a finisher, especially at the UFC level. I do worry a little bit about him just putting it on Rodrigues and finishing late, but I don't project that to be super likely.
Joselyne Edwards defeats Nora Cornolle Result:
This fight is another mess, much like the first of the night. Cornolle is making her debut and Edwards is someone who is just so hard to trust. Add in the fact that we get a weird style matchup and this one is probably guaranteed to be a strange one. I do lean Edwards here just because she is the much more proven fighter against a higher-ish level of competition. I wouldn't necessarily say her striking is good, but it is certainly not bad. She does a better job when she's at range and can just throw front kicks to the body and stay on the outside. She does an ok job of putting out volume too and that is more than likely what she does here. The biggest thing with Edwards is that her grappling just isn't very good. Her takedown defense isn't horrible, but it's just kind of ok. Once she does go down though, she really doesn't have much. She doesn't offer much of a threat off of her back and she has never shown an urgency to work her way up. I don't think Cornolle is anything outstanding, but she has shown a willingness to grapple. She seems to have some decent strength for the division and if she can muscle Edwards to the ground, she will likely ride out the round on top and has the potential to finish. I think Edwards is the better fighter and has fought significantly better competition, but her tendency to stay on her back when she gets taken down has me nervous for her in this one.
Ange Loosa defeats Rhys McKee Result:
This fight probably ends up getting pretty chaotic, pretty quickly. In that scenario, it's hard to favor one side too heavily, but I do slightly prefer Loosa. On the fight, it's hard to imagine this fight not divulging into a slug fest. Both guys have power, both guys don't really defend strikes well, and McKee is going to force the issue for better or for worse. I think Loosa is a bit more powerful, a bit faster, and probably more durable. The only thing I question him on in a brawl is that sometimes his volume kind of disappears, but I think he is better suited in a brawl, slightly. If anyone is going to grapple, it will also be Loosa. I don't think I really suspect him to have a ton of success there and he doesn't really commit to grappling heavily often, but he could hit a takedown or two in what would otherwise be a close fight. I think most aspects of this fight are pretty close, but I do just slightly prefer Loosa in a few of them. I think the speed difference is what ends up making the biggest difference and Loosa may end up getting an early-ish knockout in this one.
Taylor Lapulis defeats Caolan Loughran Result:
This is kind of a weird fight, but I do think it is a decent one at the same time. Loughran is making his UFC debut and while I do like a lot of what he does, I don't know if this is a good matchup for him. On the feet, Loughran has power, but at least for now, his technical striking is behind. That's not to say he's a poor striker because I don't think he is, but his defense definitely needs to be cleaned up. Lapulis should have a pretty clear advantage though. If he can keep this fight at range, I think he can just pick Loughran apart. He's not only better standing, but he's longer and just much smoother. If Loughran tries to just force his way inside, I think Lapulis counters him pretty badly. I do like Loughran's grappling, but Lapulis has shown himself to be a solid defense grappler. He's stopped takedowns pretty well for most of his career and he's been able to work up whenever he has gone down. Add in the fact that Lapulis has much more success against much better competition in his career and I think he is in a decent spot in this one.
Morgan Charriere defeats Manolo Zecchini Result:
This fight seems pretty well set up for Charriere to make a good impression in his UFC debut. I like a lot of what Charriere does. He's pretty well rounded and I think he has upside in most areas of his game. He should be the better striker in this one. He definitely has power, he should be the more technical fighter, and he should be faster. My one area of concern for him is that he doesn't always bring the volume you would like, but I think the skill gap is wide enough to not really worry about that here. He really should grapple in this fight though. He has the potential to just kind of roll over Zecchini if he did, but we'll see if that's the route he chooses. Zecchini does have a chance in this one thouhg, albeit a limited one. Zecchini has power and he's going to force the action. It wouldn't really surprise me if he knocked out Charriere, but if he doesn't, I don't really think that his skills are at the level to compete minute to minute. He could try to just out work Charriere, but I fear that just mindlessly pressing forward would get himself clipped and finished. Charriere probably looks good in his debut.
William Gomis defeats Yanis Ghemmouri Result:
I really don't have a ton to say about this fight. This might end up being the worst one on the card from an entertainment perspective. I think these guys are kind of similar in a lot of ways. They bring a similar archetype in that they're primarily kickboxers, but they're low volume and sort of mediocre grapplers. I have to give Gomis the benefit of the doubt because he has more higher level experience, but it's really hard for me to find something to really plant my flag in. Gomis really wants to stay at range and just fight from the outside and he has a solid reach advantage to do that here. Maybe Ghemmouri could have some grappling success and I think the low volume nature of Gomis at least allows him to compete standing, but I just slightly lean Gomis. I don't have much more to offer than that.
Volkan Oezdemir defeats Bogdan Guskov Result:
This is a fight where I think Oezdemir should be ok unless he truly is just done. Oezdemir looks like he is probably slowing down, but he would have to really go off a cliff to lose this fight at any significant rate. Guskov has power, but I think that's really about it. He's not a great striker, I don't think he's a great grappler, and I don't suspect that his cardio is really any good. He's picked up a ton of wins over really low level competition, so it's really hard to say that any of his skills are truly UFC level. Oezdemir is much the opposite. He's only been fighting top opponents for years now and his skills are still largely intact. As long as he doesn't get himself knocked out in the first few minutes, he can probably win this fight however he wants. That typically means he'll stand a strike, but he could just as easily grapple his way to a win here if he wanted to. I don't think there's really much to add beyond that. Better striker, better grappler, and just way more experience against a night and day difference in strength of schedule.
Benoit St. Denis defats Thiago Moises Result:
This is an interesting fight. I think Moises is probably the more skilled fighter. His BJJ is the best part of his game and I think he has a significant edge in that department in this fight. I think Moises may have slightly underrated wrestling as well, although I wouldn't say he's outstanding there. On the feet, I do like what he presents technically, but his output is always low. I just think that his overall grappling and striking are probably more advanced than Benoit's right now. What Benoit does though is that he is just going to come to fight. He's going to bring pace, pressure, and a will to engage and win. That is sort of the exact style that Moises has struggled with at times. Moises can hit him with everything early, but Benoit is going to keep coming for him and we could see Moises just kind of melt. I like the physicality that Benoit brings as well and that should help him in the wrestling. His pace will allow him to outwork Moises in the striking, but Benoit's defense lacks and he is going to take damage. This is a pretty cool fight and I just kind of have the feeling that Benoit's pressure gets to Moises at some point.
Manon Fiorot defeats Rose Namajunas Result:
We have Rose moving up to flyweight and I really can't figure out why that would be the case. She's putting herself in a tough situation and I'm sort of struggling to see where her path really is in this fight. Fiorot is bigger and taller. I think she's a better striker, especially from the outside. She has better power and much better volume. I think the grappling in this fight is probably more or less even, but factoring in the size and strength advantage for Fiorot, I probably prefer her there as well. I think Rose is good enough to compete obviously as she's proved that with her two separate title reigns, but I don't know if she actually has any advantages in this fight. The volume disparity is the biggest thing for me though. Even if they are roughly equal in terms of striking skill, Fiorot is just going to put so much more out there that she could just takeover in a big way.
Ciryl Gane defeats Sergey Spivak Result:
Look, I know the whole thing with Gane vs grapplers, but I think it's being a bit overstated. I agree that if Gane ends up flat on his back, he might be in some trouble. However, I don't think that's just a foregone conclusion. Before this current run, Gane had been able to get up from takedowns pretty consistently. Spivak is a good grappler from top, but I'm not sold on his wrestling. He uses more judo style takedowns and I just have a hard time putting too much stock into those kinds of takedowns working again and again over 5 rounds. If he can't immediately get takedowns or if Gane can get back up, it's going to be one way traffic. I don't think Spivak is the worst striker I've ever seen or anywhere close, but it's going to be one way traffic. Gane is a much, much better striker. He's much faster, much more powerful, and significantly more athletic. I just kind of think Gane stays on the outside and stays pretty safe until he can find a finish. I don't really trust Spivak's durability to hold up either. I don't think he's capable of doing the kind of thing that we saw Tuivasa do against Gane. Ciryl should be ok here I think.
That's it from me on this one. Thanks for reading, have a good one, and enjoy the card.
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