Well, after coming back for the white house event and the following week, I managed to not post anything at all last week. Saturday was my dad's birthday paired with father's day on Sunday, so I just didn't have the time to get out any predictions or bets. I only was able to see a bit of the Fili vs Lok Dog fight and then the main event. Kape kind of did what he tends to do and sat back and was eventually able to find the big counter shot to put Kyoji away. I didn't even think he looked all that bad, but at the same time, there's a reason we don't see guys at his age at the very top of the division in the smaller weight classes all that often. It feels like Kape should have the next title shot after the UFC finally runs Van vs Pantoja back. Who knows how long Kape will be on the sidelines now though, which is kind of unfortunate for him, not that he's the most active fighter in the world, but it just kind of accentuates why doing Van vs Taira instead of the immediate rematch was kind of dumb to me in the first place, but we did get a great fight out of it, so I can't complain too much. Anyways, we have a lengthy card ahead of us, so let's not waste anymore time. Just to be clear, my picks will be in the bolded font, and the real results will be listed next to it in italics after the fight is official. Official bets will be at the bottom. Bets are now being officially tracked at BetMMA as well.
Jefferson Nascimento defeats Tahir Abdullayev
In the first fight of the night, we have 2 guys making their UFC debut in what should be an intriguing enough matchup to kick off the event. In the grand scheme of things, Nascimento is the better and much more interesting of the 2. He's a pretty solid striker and much better than Abdullayev as it pertains to this matchup. He throws some pretty good kicks and his overall striking game seems fit for the UFC level. His grappling isn't anything to write home about, but seems mostly competent. Tahir is much the opposite style wise in that he is a primary grappler. He's not a bad one, but he doesn't do anything that really stands out to me either. Any time spent at distance will clearly swing in Nascimento's direction, but Tahir seems like the kind of guy that knows where his bread is buttered so to speak and won't waste too much time on the outside. What is interesting about this is that Nascimento isn't a natural welterweight and typically fights down at 155. Going up against his stylistic antithesis up a weight class isn't typically a recipe for success, but Tahir isn't really all that physically imposing of a welterweight, so I think that is mitigated a bit. While I wouldn't be shocked if Tahir had some success or even pulled of the upset, I think Nascimento is just the better fighter in the aggregate. I think Nascimento has the grappling skills to at least compete with Tahir, where I don't think Tahir really has much at all to offer if this stays at range. I also have to think Nascimento has a way better chance at finishing this fight than Tahir, so I think him winning more often than not makes sense.
Bets to consider: Nascimento by decision +200
This is kind of a tough fight to bet just because there is so much unknown on both sides of this one. There's not really much to plant my flag on. I think the -145 ML on Nascimento is correct as is. Earlier in the week it was closer to a pick 'em and while I wasn't super excited to even bet Nascimento at that price, I can't really blame anyone who did. If I had to pick a method, I think I lean towards the decision. My best guess is that Nascimento just uses his kicks and is able to keep Tahir at range for some stretches and just out points him. With that said, it wouldn't shock me if he is able to beat up his legs and force a late finish. I'm not too tempted by the Tahir side just because I feel like the argument for him is purely style based and not really due to the level of Tahir as an individual, which has always been a disaster waiting to happen for me, so I'm trying not to fall into that trap as much anymore.
Jean Matsumoto defeats Bekzat Almakhan
This fight has the potential to be interesting, but also has the potential to become rather one sided down the stretch. Almakhan is the kind of guy where if he doesn't find the knockout early, he just doesn't really have anywhere else to turn to. His striking isn't bad by any means and his power for the division is pretty good, but that's really all he has. What really has me down on him in this fight and in the long term is that his work rate is just nonexistent. He just doesn't put nearly enough out there and he isn't a very good grappler to make up for it. He's essentially a worse version of Josh Emmett without the wrestling, which isn't necessarily a bad thing, but he's just really one track. That is kind of why I expect Matsumoto to handle him. I think Matsumoto is more than capable of striking with him on a technical level and is going to out pace him without too much effort. I also think Matsumoto has the better cardio and has equal or better durability in my opinion. Where the fight has the ability to really swing is in the grappling. If Matsumoto takes the path of least resistance, he's going to come out and shoot some takedown attempts and I imagine he can get to them not easily, but he should be able to land some. If he comes out looking to wrestle, I think he will not only have success there, but really push the cardio gap in this fight as well and look pretty good doing so.
Bets to consider: Matsumoto ML -164
I think Matsumoto could very easily be lined in the -200 range in this fight and has the potential to look much wider than that. I just don't really see much upside on the Almakhan side in this one. Yea he has the power to find the knockout, but Matsumoto isn't chinny, the striking is either equal or on the Matsusmoto side, and both the cardio and grappling are clearly Matsumoto. I don't really think he knocks Matsumoto out and if he doesn't, his only real path is a low paced split decision type fight where he swings around based on one big shot. While it isn't impossible, winning that type of fight when you're at a disadvantage in every other facet of the fight is a tall task. I think Matsumoto probably looks pretty good in this fight and I will be on him here.
Daniil Donchenko defeats Theodor Berggren
This fight should be pretty fun for as much as we get to see of it. I am of the opinion that Donchenko is actually pretty good. I think he’s pretty solidly well rounded for the most part. His grappling is solid and while his striking is nothing amazing on a technical level, it’s extremely powerful. His biggest issue is that he has no concept of pacing himself and he just comes out and fights at 100% the entire way. He’s hyper aggressive and at some point, he’s probably going to get knocked out because of it. Berggren is kind of the same in a lot of ways. He’s another aggressive fighter who comes out with the pedal to the metal from the jump. Early in this fight, they’re both probably going to be pretty content to just trade. I think Donchenko probably has slightly better power and is a little more durable but those are only slight edges. If this fight extends, he’s the better grappler and I think he may actually have better cardio as well. Things may get hairy for him when they’re just swinging in the pocket, but Donchenko really should be the better fighter in this one by all accounts.
Bets to confused: Berggren ML +400
While I do believe everything I just said to be true, I can’t really hate anyone taking the dog shot in this one. For a fight that projects to play out like this in the first round, it really isn’t super likely that a -500 favorite actually makes much sense. You can’t really play Donchenko and while I certainly won’t be taking the shot on Berggren, it is big plus money with a chance to pay out.
Kaan Ofli defeats Javier Reyes
This is a spot where I’ll take a swing at a bigger upset. I don’t really think either of these guys are all that great to be honest, but Ofli just seems to have a more consistent actual MMA game where I just don’t really think Reyes is all that good really almost anywhere. I think Reyes has a little bit of power, he has mildly better output, and he probably has the better chin. Like I said, I don’t really love Ofli either, so it is entirely possible that those 3 things are enough for Reyes to win this fight, but I like that Ofli has fought and competed against a real level of competition before. Ofli is not a particularly great striker, but I think he’s probably competitive with Reyes in this one. Ofli has is the less durable of the 2, so Reyes probably has a better chance of finishing, but Reyes himself has basically no defense, so Ofli should be able to touch him pretty consistently. Ofli wants to get to his grappling game, which is actually pretty good. His biggest issue there is that he really lacks the horsepower and athleticism it requires to rely on that style against real UFC level competition and while I don’t love Reyes in the long term, he will have that athleticism advantage here. It’s possible Reyes can find a knockout here, but if he doesn’t, I struggle to see how this fight ultimately isn’t a razor thin decision. Give me the guy with more experience who is more reliable to come out with a comprehensive game plan.
Bets to consider: Ofli ML +190
I fully understand someone favoring Reyes in this spot and think that is a perfectly reasonable thing to believe. What I don’t particularly understand is how Reyes has been bet up to the -230 range. While I’m not really sold on Ofli as a true UFC caliber fighter, I’m equally as unsold on Reyes. Reyes may find a finish early, but if he doesn’t, this fight is probably pretty close and could go either way. I feel like I’m being forced into an Ofli play in this spot.
Nursulton Ruziboev defeats Andrey Pulyaev
It feels like everyone pretty much knows at this point that Ruziboev isn’t particularly good but he somehow continues to find himself in favorable spots and this is much of the same. Ruziboev’s strengths are that he’s huge and has big power. That’s really about it. He is aggressive as well but he really has no actual MMA skillset or game plan to speak of. Pulyaev is much the opposite and in that sense, it is kind of similar to the previous fight. Pulyaev is going to be the cleaner striker in this one and would certainly be able to compete, if not win outright if we see this fight make it to the final horn. I just don’t really think that is going to be the case. Despite his limitations, the reason I think Ruziboev is able to find the knockout here is because Pulyaev really doesn’t offer any danger coming back. He has no power to keep Ruziboev off of the front foot and he doesn’t have any real grappling to counter it either. He will probably seem ok jabbing and moving on the outside up until he doesn’t.
Bets to consider: Pulyaev ML +184
For much of the reasons that I mentioned for the previous fight, I think you have to at least consider Pulyaev here. The reason I am not as confident in this one is that I think the power gap is so significant that it has a much better chance of canceling everything out. Pulyaev really has nothing to offer that should stop Ruziboev from just walking him down. While Pulyaev is obviously better technically, I don’t really think he’ll be able to just skirt the outside for 15 minutes either. If you like the Ruziboev side, definitely just play the under 2.5 instead. If Ruziboev is having any success at all, he should knock Pulyaev out soon after.
Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev defeats Julius Walker
I ultimately think this fight finishes pretty quickly, but if it doesn’t, this one has the chance to be close down the stretch. The most likely scenario is that Yakhyaev just smokes Walker in the first round. Yakhyaev has his issues, but he’s a good striker who is extremely fast and powerful while he has gas in the tank. I don’t really trust his cardio much and the same can be said for his grappling. Now, Walker is a guy that can grapple and while I wouldn’t say his cardio is anything out of the ordinary, it is clearly better than Yakhyaev’s. If Walker is able to survive the early going and make this fight dirty, he will have a real chance to take over and potentially even finish the fight on the back end. The issue is that it’s really hard to imagine Walker making it there. Despite what some may say and the fact that we see Walker get hurt very regularly, I don’t actually think he has that much of a durability issue. His problem is that his striking defense just doesn’t exist. Normally I would call someone’s defense porous, but that doesn’t really even apply here because that would imply there’s something to even have holes in. The speed and power of Yakhyaev against someone with that level of defense who has anything less than legendary durability is really set up to end only 1 way.
Bets to consider: Yakhyaev KO round 1 +350
Normally a prop this specific at such a low number is a non starter, but this truly feels like the way to go. I don’t think I’ll pull the trigger but, I don’t hate it completely. I don’t hate anyone taking a shot on Walker just because the path is there for him in theory, but I’m not all that tempted.
Eric Nolan defeats Farman Hasanov
This fight is kind of similar to the very first fight in how it is set up. We have Nolan who is probably the better fighter overall and a much better striker in this fight who is a weaker grappler against Hasanov, who probably isn’t as good long term, but has the grappling heavy style that could give Nolan issues. Now, the interesting thing with Nolan is that there are some fights in the past where his bottom game looks absolutely horrific. There are more recent fights where his overall grappling does seem to be improved, at least to a degree, but it’s not against the level of competition that would make me say that with my chest definitively. On the feet, I think Nolan is pretty solid and offers some decent power to go with it. Hasanov, on the other hand, is an ok grappler, but I think the rest of his game leaves a lot to be desired. His striking is not very good and what really does it for me is the fact that I don’t trust his cardio even a little bit. He may have some success here early, but if this fight gets out of the first round, I think Nolan has the potential to just melt him over the back half of the fight. I think we probably see Hasanov start to gas at some point and Nolan is able to take over and we would see a later finish.
Bets to consider: Nolan ML +142
I’m not really sure how this is lined as it is. I get all of the stylistic things I mentioned above and if you go far back enough in Nolan’s tape, his grappling does look pretty bad. I do think he’s getting better there however and even if he does get taken down early, I don’t really think Hasanov is just going to cut through him and finish him in the blink of an eye. Once the fight starts progressing, I really don’t think Hasanov has the cardio to put out that kind of game for a full 15 and Nolan is going to punish him any time this fight is at distance. I feel safe betting Nolan here.
Abus Magomedov defeats Michal Olekziejczuk
Up next we have what should be another really cool fight. I think we all sort of know what to expect out of both of these guys at this point, which usually doesn’t make for a very interesting fight or closely lined fight, but that somehow isn’t the case. We know Michal is going to come out on the front foot and is going to put the pressure on with his boxing. Abus will throw some flashy strikes and does have some decent body kicks at times, but he’s really no match for Michal on the feet. The volume and technical boxing difference is really night and day. The other big issue for Abus is the cardio. We know he has around 5-7 minutes of cardio before he just goes off a cliff and basically just collapses after that. I suspect that with the pressure Michal is going to bring, it probably plays out as less than that. The big thing on the other side is that Michal just offers next to nothing as a grappler. He doesn’t stop takedowns very well at all and his bottom game is probably worse than his defensive wrestling. Abus isn’t as great of a grappler as many of his Dagestani counterparts, but he is certainly good enough to get Michal down. I have to lean the Abus side here just because it feels like he only needs one takedown attempt to end the fight, but this one should be good. It wouldn’t surprise me at all if Michal finds a way to put him down early.
Bets to consider: Magomedov ML +102
Now, from a pick perspective, I think you could really go either way. From a betting perspective, I don’t really think having Abus at plus money makes a whole lot of sense. Yes, his cardio sucks and if we get extended at all, he’s just going to fold. I just don’t really think someone who has this significant of a gap in both grappling overall and wrestling specifically can be plus money without the fighters just being on completely different levels. I’m tempted on Abus even though I’m not super into his game overall.
Ikram Aliskerov defeats Brunno Ferreira
This fight has the potential to be a little wild at the start, but I do generally think this is Ikram’s fight to lose on every level. If Ikram is smart, he’s going to come out, take Brunno down and either beat him up or submit him. If that’s the path he takes, I really don’t think Brunno has much in his arsenal that he can use to combat it. If Ikram decides to stand with Brunno, I actually think he’s better there as well. He’s taller, longer, and is at least equal, if not a better striker. The only real advantage Brunno has here is power, but given the reach and size difference, I’m not really sure that he’s going to be able to do much with it. Brunno really is all just horsepower and explosiveness, but I would be a little surprised to see him use it here as he just has too many other disadvantages to overcome. The only other thing I’ll mention is that I don’t think Ikram is particularly durable. I almost don’t really even care that much in this matchup because Brunno has so much power that it almost doesn’t matter what kind of chin you have because if he lands the shot, you were going out regardless.
Bets to consider: Over 1.5 rounds -106
This is a tough fight to bet. Everything seems pretty straightforward. It’s really a matter of deciding if you think Ikram knocks him out or submits him and I don’t really know if there’s any good way to decide at the given prices. The number isn’t great, but I think I would rather take an over 1.5 rounds. The grappling edge is pretty obvious and there’s really no reason for Ikram not to go to it. The over is banking in just that, but I think we see grappling early from the Ikram side. Not doing so gives Brunno his best, and really his only, chance to win.
Asu Almabayev defeats Charles Johnson
This is probably one of the easier fights for me to pick on this card in favor of Asu. At this stage of both of their careers, Asu is just the much better and more complete fighter. I expect Asu to dominate this fight in the grappling. He’s just the better wrestler and grappler by a pretty significant margin. The striking isn’t as obvious, but I really think Asu is more than capable of competing there with Charles. Maybe a few years ago that wouldn’t have been the case or I wouldn’t feel as confident in saying so, but I really think Charles is at the end of the line at this point. He just doesn’t seem to be the same guy he was when he first made the jump over to the UFC. He’s never dealt well with grappling heavy styles and it’s only gotten worse for him. I do suspect he is able to stand up a few times after some takedowns, but he’s always been able to get back to his feet. His issue is that he struggles to break away once he does stand back up and I don’t think Asu is the guy we see him figure it out against. The best case scenario for Johnson feels like we get a lot of clinch work without a whole lot of action and he’s able to steal rounds based on a couple of big flurries. Even then, I don’t really feel like Charles is at a cardio advantage like we’ve seen him have at times in the past, so I am pretty confident in saying Asu here.
Bets to consider: Almabayev ML -270
You almost never see me wanting to lay big favorites like this, but I really don’t see a reason not to. Charles is a veteran and we’ve seen him win fights he was supposed to lose before, but that isn’t really enough here. The path beyond a strange split decision just isn’t there to me. His regression has brought the striking close to even, with wide gaps in the grappling and in the ability to finish the fight. I’m tempted to bet Asu, even at this large price tag.
Nazim Sadykhov defeats Matheus Camilo
We follow that up with what is also a pretty easy fight for me. I have my questions about Sadykhov, especially when it comes to him fighting real high level UFC fighters, but this matchup really shouldn’t be an issue for him. I really just don’t think Camilo is a UFC level fighter. He’s a grappler and while his grappling isn’t bad by any means, for it to be his best ability as a specialist, you would expect it to be a bit better. His striking is not very good at all and his cardio is even worse. He very consistently falls off a cliff around the half way point if the fight and I see no reason to expect anything different here. Now, Nazim does have a tendency to work his way into fights and start rather slowly in round one. It wouldn’t shock me if we see Camilo get a takedown early, but I don’t really suspect that he is able to hold Nazim down. Even if he does, I’m not sure that it matters all that much because by the time we get to round 2, Nazim is going to be able to turn up the pressure and he’s eventually just going to break Camilo and find the finish.
Bets to consider: Sadykhov ML -205
This one is tough for me because I don’t like betting juice very often, especially on fighters I don’t particularly like, but this feels like a spot to do it for me. I think what makes me more confident in this spot as opposed to others is even if Camilo is able to have some success in round 1, I really don’t feel like he presents any danger. I really don’t see him finishing Nazim even if he can get the takedowns, so even if he looks good in round 1, I don’t think it really does anything to effect my thoughts on the fight all that much. I’m not pumped to bet this number, but I might.
Shara Magomedov defeats Michel Pereira
There was probably a day and time a couple of years ago when this fight would’ve been much better, but unfortunately for Pereira, that has come and gone. There are things to like about Shara and probably and equal amount of things to dislike about his game, but he knows his strengths and weaknesses and does a decent job of managing them. He’s a good striker and he’s very fast when he’s fresh. He sticks mostly to his outside kicking game and while his boxing isn’t amazing, I think it’s become a bit overstated how little he actually throws his hands. His grappling isn’t particularly good but he does have a decent clinch game. This fight would’ve needed a much longer breakdown if this was a few years back, but Pereira seems to be pretty cooked to me. He’s always had his own flaws but they seem to only be getting worse, namely his cardio. He used to just redline because he couldn’t pace himself but now it feels like he just gasses out without even doing all that much. I think he has the capability of knocking Shara out early and he definitely has the ability to grapple him early. It’s just that an early success that doesn’t come with a finish seems to be all for not because he doesn’t have the cardio to maintain any of that success. It also feels like his durability is really on the decline as well. While I think Pereira is well rounded enough and still has the skill to make round one interesting, I would be surprised if he were able to actually maintain it in a way that allowed him to pull off the upset.
Bets to consider: Magomedov by decision +165
This line really does feel wide on the ML side of things just because Shara’s game doesn’t really lend itself to looking like a huge favorite most of the time, but I do think he should be ok. Pereira can definitely grapple him in round one, but that would basically cripple him beyond that point because his cardio just can’t hold up to that style. It feels like we get a round of a competitive fight and then Shara is able to get his outside kicking game working after Pereira is left to just wing a few big shots every 25 seconds from the outside while gasping for air in between. I lean the decision just because I can’t really imagine Pereira getting caught with a high kick, but getting knocked out by Kyle Daukaus is not a great sign for his durability.
Rafael Fiziev defeats Manuel Torres
This is a pretty interesting fight and a fun main event at that. Both guys are going to want to strike and Torres in particular is a guy who we’ve seen find a lot of early finishes. We know he has really good power, but unfortunately that leaves a lot of questions about the rest of his game. I really don’t suspect we see Fiziev try to grapple him, so it’s not so much that, it’s just his cardio. While we don’t know for sure, I think it is safe to assume his cardio probably isn’t amazing. He just fights at so high of a pace early on that it just wouldn’t be sustainable to do that for 25 minutes. With that said, Fiziev doesn’t really have great cardio either. We’ve seen him fade pretty consistently over the back half of fights himself. However, I do think Fiziev is the best fighter we’ve seen Torres matchup against by a fairly significant margin. I think Fiziev is a noticeably better technical striker and just has way more tools in his tool box. The diversity in his game will be noticeably more than what we see from Torres. I think the biggest difference maker is going to be the work to the body and legs that Fiziev is reliable to do. I think he’s going to be able to beat up the legs early on and ultimately set up a finish later. There are concerns for Fiziev though, mainly that he just hasn’t looked the same as he did before the injuries. I just don’t really think he looks to be the same guy speed wise. We’ve also seen him start to get hurt more over recent fights and while getting hurt by Justin Gaethje and Mauricio Ruffy js far from a death sentence, it is something to monitor. With that said, I have to lean Fiziev here just based on his all around game and success we’ve seen him have against true, high level competition.
Bets to consider: Fiziev ML -108
At a pick em price, I feel like playing Fiziev here makes some sense. I obviously broke down the entire fight but it’s the gap in strength of schedule that really makes me think we could see some value on Fiziev. He didn’t get knocked out super early against Ruffy and I don’t think Torres is really anywhere near that level. I think he works the body early and then we probably see a finish not too long after Torres starts to slow in the back half of the second round or sometime in the third.
That’s it for me on this card. It is very late and with the card starting early tomorrow, I’ll have to get some sleep. Like always, official bets are below. Thanks for reading and enjoy the fights.
Official Bets
Matsumoto ML 3 units at -164
Ofli ML 0.5 units at +190
Nolan ML 0.75 units at +142
Abus Magomedov ML 0.5 units at +102
Almabayev ML 5 units at -270
Sadykhov ML 1.5 units at -205
Fiziev ML 1.08 units at -108
Net Gain/Loss
Event Total:
Previous Year to Date Total: +1.7 units
Updated Year to Date Total:
UPDATE:
Weekly Record:
Previous Year to Date Record: 6-1
Updated Year to Date Record:
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