It has been quite a long time since I did one of these and while it is exciting to be back, it does feel a little odd. On one hand, it feels like it has been forever, but also feels so familiar at the same time. A lot has happened since my last real post here. If you missed it in my previous update, I ended up not being able to keep up with this during grad school and now that I am graduated, I am back and ready to update this more regularly. I have a lot of things to cover because the MMA landscape has changed drastically since my last appearance so we have a lot of ground to cover. Let's not waste any more time and get to what you came here for. Just to be clear, my picks will be in the bolded font, and the real results will be listed next to it in italics after the fight is official. Official bets will be at the bottom. Bets are now being officially tracked at BetMMA as well.
Diego Lopes defeats Steve Garcia
We kick the night off with one of the best fights of the entire night. This fight is both fun and should be somewhat competitive if it extends at all. I think Lopes had like 1 fight in the UFC at the time of my last post here, so you guys haven't been privy to my opinions on him. Unfortunately for me, I have been a little lower on Lopes than what his ceiling has ended up being. I don't think he's a particularly great striker, especially defensively. What he does have is immense power on the feet that has ended up taking him a lot farther than I would have predicted when I first started watching his film a few years ago now. While his defense leaves a lot to be desired, he is extremely durable and has taken plenty of clean shots without too much of a reaction. As far as his grappling goes, his BJJ is extremely dangerous. The issue with his grappling game comes with his wrestling, which is kind of average at best. With all that said, Lopes is extremely dangerous although the lack of defense and the lack of a reliable wrestling game kind of limit him against top tier opponents while his physicality, durability, and overall horsepower allow him to overwhelm inferior opponents. On the other side, we have Steve Garcia, who is on a great run after starting off his UFC career pretty shakily. With that said, I think we have gotten to a point in the discourse where his winning streak is becoming a little overrated just because the names on that list are not nearly as impressive as what Lopes has been fighting and beating. That isn't to say that Garcia doesn't have a chance because he certainly does. Steve has massive power himself and I think he is a slightly more technical striker than Lopes. Much like Lopes, Steve also has really porous defense, but the concern for him is that the durability just isn't on that same level that Lopes is. We have seen Garcia knocked out before and hurt even more frequently against not the best level of competition. When it comes to the grappling, I don't really suspect Steve to ever get on top, but he's not the worst defensive wrestler I've ever seen. Given the relative weakness of Lopes wrestling, I would be surprised if Lopes got more than 1 takedown. If anything, I think we are more likely to see a grappling exchange after someone gets knocked down on the feet. Ultimately, I suspect that at some point fairly early on we just see this fight divulge into a fire fight with both guys trading on the feet and I have to favor Lopes with his far superior durability in that scenario.
Bets to consider: Lopes ML -146, Lopes ITD +120
A lot of people this week have been talking this week about how Garcia is a live dog and he certainly is, but I think we are getting to the point where the pendulum needs to swing back the other way. Garcia's best wins are Melq Costa, old Calvin Kattar, and David Onama. Lopes has beaten much better fighters than that and even in the first Volk fight he didn't look completely uncompetitive. If this fight goes the way I think it will, I think Lopes looks pretty good. He's significantly more durable in my opinion and if we get any grappling, I think he'll have noticeable advantages there as well. I have a hard time seeing Garcia just sitting on the outside and point fighting him even though I think he has the skill advantage to do it if he really wanted to. At this point, I feel like I will be on Lopes in some capacity, I just haven't really decided if I'll take ML or ITD. I think I'm leaning ITD right now.
Bo Nickal defeats Kyle Daukaus
To follow up one of the 2 best fights of the night, we move right into probably the worst fight of the night. Daukaus has certainly made the most of his second run in the UFC with some really nice wins and finishes. The thing with Daukaus is that I just don't really know what he does well. He's a serviceable boxer, but nothing that particularly stands out. Despite hurting some guys recently, I don't really think his power is all that special. His grappling is advantageous and his submission game is certainly dangerous, but his wrestling leaves a lot to be desired. That's not to say that Daukaus is a bad fighter because he's certainly not, but he's someone that I see to have limited upside. Bo, on the other hand, has had a bit of a fall from grace, at least in terms of public perception. At least from my perspective, nothing that has happened so far for Bo in his career has come as too much of a surprise. He's a really good wrestler, we already knew that though. His striking leaves a lot to be desired, I don't think that really surprises anyone. Offensively, it's pretty basic, but he does have some pop. Defensively, he leaves himself a lot more open than you would like and while I don't necessarily think he's chinny, he certainly doesn't like to be hit. So that brings us to this matchup and I think you have to give Daukaus a slight edge on the feet almost by default. While I do favor him there and think he would be able to out box Bo pretty cleanly if they stayed standing for 15 minutes, I really don't foresee a scenario where that actually happens. The levels of wrestling here are just really night and day. I know Daukaus has some submissions, but I really don't like his bottom game in the times we've seen it. Maybe Bo buys into the hype of the card and tries to swing with Daukaus a little, but if he ever gets into trouble, I think Bo can just take him down and lay on top of him pretty much whenever he wants. My best guess is that Bo actually handles him pretty easily.
Bets to consider: Nickal by decision +250, Over 2.5 rounds +124
When I look at the lines for this fight, I'm just not really sure what people see that suggests this fight should be almost -160 to go under 2.5 rounds. Daukaus doesn't have the best durability in the world, but I really don't foresee Bo landing another high kick like his last fight. I would be even more surprised if Bo is able to sub him. On the other side, I think people potentially foresee Daukaus being able to replicate the RDR did to Bo and while I can see the parallels if I squint my eyes really hard, I don't think it is really all that likely. Daukaus and RDR have a similar body type to a degree, but RDR is just a significantly better fighter and is at least one, if not multiple levels above Daukaus in almost every way. I think a Daukaus sub is extremely unlikely as Bo will out wrestle him positionally fairly easily. Maybe Bo wants to show out for Trump and gets sucked into the hype and ends up losing a medium paced kickboxing match, but really outside of that, I don't see it for Daukaus. I think either of these plays make sense, depending how much conviction you have on the Bo side.
Mauricio Ruffy defeats Michael Chandler
I feel like this is a fight where everyone kind of knows what we're getting. This is the UFC throwing Chandler a bone after putting his career on ice for the better part of the last few years holding out for a McGregor fight that never came to fruition. By throwing him a bone, I mean putting him on the biggest card they could and letting him collect another massive paycheck by being the sacrificial lamb for Ruffy. There was a day and time where this would have been a great matchup for Chandler, but those days are just long gone. In theory, Chandler would be more than capable of taking Ruffy down and either control him or beat him up and finish him. That version of Michael Chandler really hasn't existed ever since he joined the UFC. Chandler has really ditched the wrestling and has gone all in on trying to be the most entertaining fighter in the world. While I'm sure it has worked out for him financially in some respects, but it has almost certainly cost him a few wins. Even if he did that here though, I don't know that he has the juice anymore. He's just looked so bad recently and it is really the Paddy fight that did it for me. I just can't unsee that because I've been as low on Paddy as anyone. That isn't to say that Ruffy doesn't have his flaws because he does, but I just don't see them biting him in the ass on this one. Maybe he gives up a takedown early, but I don't think Chandler has the gas to push that wrestling game for a full fight anymore. The gap in striking is just massive. At some point, Chandler is either going to be forced to strike with Ruffy because he ran out of gas to wrestle anymore or he's going to willingly just try to swing with him and he's going to get countered and badly knocked out. I really think that's all there is to it.
Bets to consider: Under 1.5 rounds -134
For anyone returning after all these years, you may remember just how much I hate 1.5 round totals, but this is probably the only spot I would consider in this one. This fight is so juiced just because there's really no one interested in the Chandler side. Under 1.5 is a little juiced but I really just think Chandler is cooked. He doesn't have more than a few minutes of cardio anymore and his chin has really gone off a cliff over the last few years. At this point, I don't know that Chandler really has it in him to get to the 7.5 minute mark against anyone of significance, especially a young gun like Ruffy.
Josh Hokit defeats Derrick Lewis
This fight may be as one sided as the previous, but there is certainly a lot more intrigue and buzz around this one and rightfully so in my opinion. Hokit is a very polarizing figure outside of the cage and it brings more attention to his fights than it otherwise would receive, at least earlier in his career. After the instant classic he put on with Curtis Blaydes, I don't think he needs any weird character or gimmick to have people checking for the next time he's on the schedule. That is a conversation for another day though. In the cage, I think Hokit is probably a lot better than people initially realized. His striking is nothing to write home about, but he's a pretty solid athlete for heavyweight and he pairs it with pretty good cardio and even better output. His power seems pretty average, but he also doesn't really sit down and try to land bombs either. His wrestling seems pretty good as well. I don't know that he'll rack up a bunch of submission wins, but he can certainly mix in takedowns and has the cardio to actually do it consistently, which is a rare commodity at heavyweight. On the other side is Derrick Lewis and we all really know what to expect from him at this point. Over the last couple of years it has seemed like he's fading a bit. Lewis has always kind of been a guy that will take his ball and go home when he gets behind the 8 ball and, especially against Waldo, he really took that to a new level. With that said, he has looked a bit more inspired for this fight, so maybe the extra heat from Hokit along with the platform will have him a little more locked in than he's been recently. Obviously, they key for Lewis is going to be timing the big shot and landing it. If he can land his power shots be it an overhand or an uppercut, there's not many guys out there that can take it and keep moving. Hokit has shown good durability but taking the big right from Lewis is a bit of a different story. Unfortunately, I think the window for Lewis to do that here is pretty narrow. He's never had good cardio but it seems to actively be getting worse as he's crossed over 40. I think he has about 2-3 minutes of real danger before it starts to tail off. There's some speculation that Hokit is going to come out and take it to Lewis the way he did with Blaydes, but I find that really hard to believe, especially when Hokit has said that he's approaching this differently. We know Hokit can probably take Lewis down at will and I suspect he's going to do just that. Maybe Lewis can get up once, at most twice, but I kind of think Hokit takes him down and pounds him out in pretty quick succession.
Bets to consider: Lewis Round 1 KO +700, Hokit KO -125
There really isn't much meat on the bone when it comes to this fight. If you really want the Lewis dart throw, then that will be the way to do it, but even that number isn't all that tempting. I think Hokit KO at small minus money is fine. Lewis laid under Jailton Almeida for 5 rounds and never got all that close to being subbed, so I don't really think Hokit will do it here. At the same time, I don't really see this fight going the distance. Hokit isn't going to just lay and pray him and Lewis isn't really the guy to really push through some adversity, especially from his back.
Sean O'Malley defeats Aiemann Zahabi
Besides, Nickal vs Daukaus, I think this fight is the other one that people just really aren't all that interested in and I understand why to a degree. Even though he is coming off a win against Song Yadong, this might be the lowest the public opinion has been on O'Malley maybe ever. While he admittedly didn't look great in that fight, I don't think Zahabi really presents many issues for Sean. We know Sean wants to strike at range and Zahabi historically wants to do a lot of the same. The issue is that Sean is taller, longer, faster, has more power, more volume, and is just an overall more gifted striker. That isn't to say that I think he's just going to come out and run over Zahabi, but it is certainly in the cards. I don't really suspect that Zahabi has any wrestling success here and I'm not all that convinced he even tries for it. I think best path for Zahabi is to try and sucker Sean into a low volume outside kick boxing match where he might be able to edge a decision, but even that feels incredibly unlikely given the issues I outlined above. On top of all that, Zahabi isn't the most durable guy in the world. I think it's possible that Zahabi can look more competitive minute to minute than the line may indicate, but I really think this matchup is just too much to overcome for him unless he can have something weird break his way.
Bets to consider: O'Malley by KO +185
I think the only decision to be made here is whether Sean finishes or if he cruises to a decision. I tend to lean more towards the knockout side. The first reason for that is that I really do not trust Zahabi's chin. We've seen him knocked out before and we have seen him hurt more often recently. The other reason is that I don't see as much of a reason for Sean to be tentative in this spot. In the past we have seen him pick his shots a little more and not take as many risks. I think he has a tendency to do that when he feels a stronger grappling presence on the other side or someone like Song that is more of a power threat. I don't think Zahabi presents either one of those and is the kind of guy that we've seen Sean more willing to open up against and style on in the past. I think he might feel him out early and when he realizes that the danger coming back is limited, he can really go in for the kill.
Cyril Gane defeats Alex Pereira
This really pains me to type because I really do not want to see this happen. I think most people are fans of watching Alex fight and I am certainly no different. On the other side of that we have Cyril Gane, who I am not a huge fan of from a watchability perspective. We'll start with Alex. He's clearly one of the most accomplished and gifted kickboxers we've seen transition over to the UFC. The power he possesses, especially in his left hand and kicks is some of the most impressive power we have in the UFC today. Most of the questions surrounding him are in his move up to heavyweight. We are not all that far removed from him being at 185 and he definitely looks quite a bit heavier than he did even when he filled in at 205. When it comes to Gane, I think he presents a really great skillset to give Alex issues regardless of weight class. For as great as Alex at range, he isn't all that fleet of foot. Gane is the exact opposite. His movement, especially laterally, is pretty incredible for someone of his size. I think he will probably have some success just using his movement and popping his jab out. There is also the grappling side of things where I also have to favor Gane. He's not a great wrestler by any means, but he does consistently at least show a willingness to attempt some takedowns and Pereira is just not experienced enough as a grappler. If Gane got on top of him, I have to imagine he looks pretty good there. Even if he can't get Alex down, he probably can control him in the clinch for some stretches. I think my main concern on the Gane side is that he is just a little lackadaisical at times. He fights with his hands down a little too much for my liking and he is too willing to move backwards as well. This is a guy who we have seen almost flat lined by Tai Tuivasa not all that long ago. If he takes that same shot from Pereira, I don't know that we see him get back up. He may have to make some adjustments in order to gain some respect from Alex. Gane isn't a guy who really sits down and fires back counters, but he might need to do so in this one. If he's going to accept the back foot and just try to skirt the cage and land jabs, Alex is going to come after him hard. I think we need to see Gane at least try to throw some power back every now and again. Even then, I think the unknowns surrounding Pereira's move up and Gane's style force me to lean his way in this one.
Bets to consider: Gane ML -104, Over 3.5 rounds +108
Because of everything I just said, I think considering Gane as he flips to dog money has to at least be a consideration. He holds too many advantages to be dog in my opinion, even if Alex does end up eventually putting him out. The other way to go in my opinion is the over. This one might get a little sweaty, especially if Alex is just walking him down from the jump, but if Gane is doing what he wants, the exchanges will be limited. Pereira himself is getting up there in age and we see him get hurt more than we used to, but Gane really isn't going to go out of his way to finish unless he feels that there's truly no threat coming back. For that to happen, Pereira would have to gas out late, which is possible, especially at the larger weight, but that wouldn't happen until after 3.5 rounds go by. It's not my favorite spot in the world, but it is worth a second look.
Ilia Topuria defeats Justin Gaethje
Being the main event, this fight has been dissected over and over, so I'm not sure I'm going to say anything you haven't heard already but I'll try. Everyone knows that Gaethje is kind of between a rock and hard place in a lot of ways, so when I have been thinking about this fight, I've been trying to think about what Gaethje's camp has in place for him gameplan wise. Obviously, we aren't going to see Gaethje just come out and swing with him. He could come out and try to stay at range and use his size, but I don't really know how great of an idea that is. Ilia is faster, way more technical, and he's going to absolutely punish Justin on the counters if he throws naked low kicks. I don't suspect that Gaethje is going to actually be able to grapple with Ilia, but I think a path for him lies in just trying to make things dirty. The one real part of Ilia's game that can be exploited is his striking defense. Ilia gets hit in basically all of his fights. I wonder if Gaethje can in close and try to clinch with Ilia and try to land something on the inside if that is not his best bet. That comes with a huge risk though because if he gets stuck in the pocket, he's going to get absolutely smoked. It's not a perfect strategy, but it's really all I could come up with. Any of the standard Gaethje moves are really going to make it a tough night for him. Even if he can put Ilia in some danger, Ilia can probably just take him down and have his way with him from top position anyways, but I guess we'll see.
Bets to consider: Over 1.5 rounds -116
This fight is so juiced that it's almost impossible to play. If anything, an over here would be a sweaty way to go. Whatever the game plan is, it has to be based around staying safe early. Gaethje usually strays from the plan and starts going crazy at some point, but he should be able to stick to it for at least a little bit. Ilia isn't a guy who typically comes out hot as well. He generally takes his time and kind of eases into the fight. He lets the knockouts come to him as opposed to hunting them from the jump. If Justin tries to stay safe, I don't think Ilia is just going to dive into the pocket and start swinging haymakers at him. It's not the best play in the world, but if you want some action on the main event, that may be the best way to go about it.
Well, that's it for a short card, but it should be a fun one. It's great to be back and be on the lookout for regular updates on this from here on out. Have a great night and enjoy what she be an interesting event no matter what. Official bets and record are below like always.
Official Bets
Lopes ITD 1 unit at +120 to win 1.20 units
Nickal by decision 0.5 units at +250 to win 1.25 units
Gane ML 1.04 units at -104 to win 1 unit
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