After a week off, we are back in a big way for UFC 329. I'm starting to type this out on Thursday night, so I'm still holding my breath as to whether we actually see this card go down the way it is planned or not. If it does, it will mark the return of one Conor McGregor in a fight that I was very skeptical that we would ever actually see. It's been a long, long time since he last fought and it will be interesting to see just how many eyes he still brings to the sport. Maybe I am just out of the loop as far as social media goes these days, but it hasn't really felt like a true McGregor fight week to me, at least not yet. It's not like he's coming back to a softball matchup where he can just dust his opponent in the first minute. Max Holloway is realistically the biggest fight he could get where he stylistically has a chance. What is rare for a Conor card is that they actually built up the event around him quite a bit. We have quite a few former champions and title challengers sprinkled throughout. This should be a good night of action, so let's get to it. Just to be clear, my picks will be in the bolded font, and the real results will be listed next to it in italics after the fight is official. Official bets will be at the bottom. Bets are now being officially tracked at BetMMA as well.
Alessandro Costa defeats Cody Durden
We'll kick off a long night with what may turn out to be an odd fight. We have Costa jumping in on short notice to take on Cody Durden in what I think may be a good matchup for him in some regards. I don't think I am super high on Costa in the long term, but in a fight like this, he should be able to do some things that will give Durden some issues. On the feet, Costa really isn't all that great of a striker, but he does have some power. He's a stronger grappler, but I think in the grand scheme of things, his grappling is only sort of ok. Similarly, I think his chin and cardio are both middle of the road. I think a younger version of Cody Durden would have been more equipped to give him some issues. I do kind of think Durden may be on his way out as we don't see a lot of guys at the smaller weights hang on well into their 30s and he does seem to be aging to me. His chin and cardio were never really strong points of his game, but they seem to be declining. With that said, I think he still can hold his own skill wise here. If we got 15 minutes of kickboxing, I think Durden is more than capable of competing there. It also wouldn't come as a shock to me if Durden was able to out wrestle him. We just haven't really seen that version of him in awhile and I think too much time on the feet might get Cody knocked out and if he's forced to push a heavy grappling pace, he may just not have the cardio to hold up on the back end anymore.
Bets to consider: Durden ML +205
There is part of me that is still tempted by Durden because he does have the stylistic advantages. If I wake up on Monday and he just ran over Costa in the grappling and was able to out strike him for whatever time was on the feet, I'll be a little surprised, but only a little. I think what is ultimately going to keep me away from him is that he just hasn't looked like his typical self in almost any of his recent fights outside of the last one against Filho. It's hard for me to even want to look at a total because if this fight makes it to decision, I have to think Durden was probably a pretty good bet. I think if you like the over then just bet Durden and if you like Costa then take the under.
Zach Reese defeats Ryan Gandra
Next up, we have Reese vs Gandra and I'm not really buying all of the Ryan Gandra hype coming into this one. He's fast and explosive, but I don't really see much more than that in his game. He likes to blitz forward and throw big strikes and while he's had success doing it on the regionals, on DWCS, and against Jose Medina, I wouldn't say any of those fights are indicators for big success against real UFC level competition. Outside of the things I just listed, I don't really know what Gandra does well. I don't trust his grappling, his cardio, or durability all that much. I wouldn't say they're outright awful, but wouldn't guess they are a strength in his game either. With all that said, I can't say I'm a massive fan of Zach Reese either. He has his holes and is far from the next big thing, but we've seen what he can do against real competition and he at least holds his own. Reese is an ok striker and has some power. His defense isn't the greatest, but he does throw some decent looking kicks at times. Reese isn't a particularly good wrestler, but his grappling game once he's on the mat is actually respectable. He has shown some good things from top and can even be a bit dangerous on bottom. I wouldn't project Reese to get more than maybe one takedown at best, but if he finds himself on top, I think he can do some really good work from there. Could Gandra blitz into range and knock Reese out? Absolutely. However, if he doesn't do that relatively quickly, I don't think he really offers much else against a guy that we've seen have success against a far higher level of competition.
Bets to consider: Reese ML +112
I just don't really understand this line all that much. In my opinion, it should be flipped with Reese being the one farther out in the -130 to -140 range. To me, all of the downside in this fight is on Gandra. I just don't really see how him just blitzing into range and hoping to find a knockout in the first 3-5 minutes is enough to make him -140. Reese isn't a world beater, but I'm not sure he has to be. I think the skills that he's shown us to date are very much capable of taking Gandra here. As long as he doesn't get finished himself, I think he can find his own finish. I'll probably be on the Reese side.
Farid Basharat defeats John Garza
We have John Garza jumping in on short notice to take on Farid Basharat and it would be kind of hard to imagine Garza pulling the upset here. Basharat is a pretty good looking prospect and he's extremely well rounded without much in the way of exploitable holes. If anything, the biggest hole in his game is that he just doesn't really present much in the way of danger. He doesn't really put out big numbers in the striking and overwhelm with volume, he doesn't have big power, and his ground game isn't particularly dangerous either. What he does bring is a high level technical skillset. In the limited tape that I was able to watch on Garza, he doesn't seem all that bad. The biggest question is in regards to his strength of competition because it is not very good to say the least. I think it is pretty easy for Garza to look good because most of his opponents just offer no danger coming back at him. Garza is aggressive with his strikes both on the feet and from top position, which should be useful against an otherwise low output Basharat, but I don't really love his defense in some stretches. I think Basharat could have some success countering him. While Garza has seemed ok from top, he has been taken down before and I think that is likely what is his undoing in this fight. Even if he can offer some danger to Basharat standing, I think Farid can probably just take him down whenever he feels like it. Farid is not a super aggressive fighter so even with Garza on extremely short notice, I'm not that confident that he finds a finish unless Garza just completely death gasses, but a fighter with Farid's well rounded skillset should be able to win this fight under these circumstances a a very high clip.
Bets to consider: Over 2.5 rounds -122
As I was just hinting at, Basharat isn't much of a finisher at all. He doesn't have much power on the feet, doesn't throw a ton of volume, and doesn't offer all that much danger in the submission game. The only reason we are getting a price anywhere near this is because Garza is largely an unknown with limited experience against subpar competition. I would be pretty surprised if Farid knocks him out standing just because he's not a guy with a ton of pop in his hands and he won't pour on volume late even if Garza slows down. He's not super aggressive with his submission game either. The only real way I imagine this fight finishes is if Garza truly death gasses late and is flat on his back and basically just gives up. I am tempted to take a small swing at this one.
Damian Pinas defeats Caesar Almeida
I think this might be the fight on the card that I am least interested in. I just don't really have much of a solidified opinion on it I guess. In the long run, I don't think Pinas is destined for the title or anything, but he seems like an ok enough fighter to carve out a role for himself. He's big, strong, fast, and explosive. Outside of that, we don't really know a whole lot, but I have no reason to expect he is an exceptional grappler or has great cardio. I think that probably is enough to put him in a decent spot in this matchup though. Almeida is making the transition from kickboxing to MMA, which seems to be much more common these days, but he's already in his late 30s. Obviously, he is not much of a grappler, but even his striking isn't other worldly. I think he probably gets knocked out in this one even though he hasn't been finished to date. He's at a firepower disadvantage and a reach disadvantage in this one. If anyone is going to get on top, it's going to be Pinas. The path for Almeida is to keep things lower paced on the outside and fight behind his low kicks and while I wouldn't be shocked if that's the outcome, I don't think it is particularly likely either. I just don't really think he has the power to stop Pinas from walking him down to get that outside fight that he needs.
Bets to consider: Almeida by decision +700
I just said how I'm not really much of an Almeida guy, but this does seem a bit odd of a price to me. I don't really see Almeida as a guy who has tremendous power. I mean, he has some, but nothing outstanding. Pinas seems pretty durable as well. I don't think Almeida is going to come out swinging and if he can indeed give Pinas a vet lesson, I thinkt he fight probably goes pretty long. If you like the Almeida side, which I've seen a decent amount of people do, I think it might be worth a poke. I don't personally want to be on the Almeida side, but I would rather sit on this +700, than to be on any of the Pinas numbers that are juiced into oblivion. One thing I didn't mention above is that this feels like two guys moving in opposite directions. This is the best opponent Pinas has fought and this is a step down for Almeida, so there's also that element.
Tracy Cortez defeats Cong Wang
This is actually a pretty interesting fight. This is about as classic striker vs grappler as you're going to get in modern MMA. Cortez is the grappler and she's a pretty good wrestler, especially in women's MMA that doesn't see a ton of true wrestlers. Her top game isn't the most advanced, but whenever she's gotten on top of women who she is definitively better than, she's looked pretty good. Over the last few years, we've seen her striking improve some as well. She has serviceable boxing and while it isn't flashy, she's able to use it to set up her takedowns when things are working her way. She doesn't have much power, which isn't surprising for someone her size, but she is ok enough at distance. I don't really like the way she went out in her last fight just because it felt like she could compete skill wise, but ultimately got bullied and finished. That raises red flags coming into this matchup specifically because Wang is going to bring the fight to her. Wang is an aggressive striker and she has real power. I think there is a real chance she comes out and really takes it to Tracy and beats her up. She can work her low kicks and then bully Tracy with power shots and eventually break her. The downside is that we've seen Wang look not very good against grapplers that are not as good as Tracy Cortez. This kind of feels like a fight where whoever wins looks -800 but it could really go either way. If Tracy is getting the fight down, she can more than likely stay on top and maybe even find a finish because Wang gives her back often. If Tracy isn't getting the takedowns, she probably just gets beaten up until she folds. It's hard to say, but in cases like these, I often lean towards the grappling side. Seeing Wang look the way she did when grappling against Moura in her last fight is what scares me away from that side.
Bets to consider: U2.5 rounds +210
This fight is pick em on the ML side of things so, if you have some conviction, then the number is there for a decent payout. I'm somewhat tempted to go with Cortez, especially if the number keeps moving towards Wang. The other way to move would be to take the under. I know WMMA unders are not exactly the way to major profit, but this number does seem a bit off to me. If you like the Wang side, you almost have to like the under, I would imagine. It's hard for me to see her having this fight go her way without starting to melt Tracy at some point. After seeing her wilt to Blanchfield, it feels like Wang could get a similar result, albeit in a different fashion. There is some scope for Tracy to finish as well. If she can get her game going, she's going to be spending a lot of time on top. Wang is prone to giving her back and could open herself up to a submission at some point. At big plus money, I think this is worth a second look.
Luke Riley defeats Kai Kamaka
This is a more interesting fight than I think I initially gave it credit for. Kamaka is a really interesting case study in his own right. He has a really odd skillset in that he is good and well rounded enough to fight close with guys who profile as being much better than him, but at the same time, doesn't have any of the skills to separate from guys who he should be much better than. He's a good boxer and a pretty solid wrestler. He has decent enough cardio and he's tough with a good chin. That should, in theory, be a pretty tough guy to beat. The problem is that he just has no power on the feet to be dangerous there. His overall grappling game is a little weak in that he isn't particularly dangerous with his submissions and he doesn't really even consolidate top position and spend long stretches on top. Then, while his chin holds up, his defense isn't really that good and he gets hit a ton. He's kind of the poster boy for a mid-tier fighter who has a high floor with no ceiling. Luke Riley, in a vacuum is a much more flawed fighter. His grappling has not been particularly good historically. I have to imagine that Kamaka can get him down in this one, but I think Riley can work his way back up. The strength of his game is that he's a pretty solid boxer with good power and good cardio. He is able to throw his power shots for 15 minutes and I think that should be enough. He's going to be able to find Kamaka on the feet and even if they are roughly the same from a technical standpoint, the lack of defense from Kamaka and the power gap is going to swing the striking pretty easily in Riley's favor. I am not particularly convinced that Riley is all that durable, but I doubt Kamaka is the guy to do anything about that. Kamaka's path is in the grappling but I just don't think he's going to be able to hold Riley down much at all.
Bets to consider: Riley by decision +140
I get some people being tempted by the bigger number on the Kamaka side, but I just can't really get there. To me, he just doesn't really have the upside to make it worth it. Even if things go his way, it's hard to imagine the margins being anything other than razor thin. If you want to go with Riley, you have to decide whether you want the knockout or the decision and I think I lean the decision way. Kamaka isn't a guy who gets finished very often and I think Riley has enough holes grappling that Kamaka can have some periods of success. I think this is actually a pretty good number for Riley decision when his ML is pushing out towards -250,
Adrian Yanez defeats Cody Garbrandt
This fight has a very real chance of being pretty strange, which is kind of theme for this stretch of Cody's career. I think there is a case to be made for Cody in this fight, but it is really a huge a stretch at this point. In theory, I think Cody is a capable enough boxer to strike with Yanez. I think he may even be able to hit a takedown or two. I think he has the faster hands and more power than Yanez. The downside of Cody is just so low that I'm not really sure any of it matters. Cody could probably strike with Yanez for a little, but his cardio is just gone at this point. He gasses out very quickly in fights that aren't even fought at a pace these days. He might be able to hit a takedown, but the energy required to do that would severely hinder what he's able to do the rest of the way. Even when he's fresh, he really doesn't even throw that many strikes. On top of all of that, his chin has just deteriorated even farther. All of that to say, I don't think this is necessarily an easy fight for Yanez either. He can be high volume at times, but he can also have his volume tail off at times. He likes to counter and if he's going to sit and wait to counter Cody, there are going to be long stretches where they are just staring at each other. Ultimately, I think Yanez is just too precise and if he can push Cody even a little bit, he's probably going to gas out and Yanez will be able to find the finish from there. This should be ok for Yanez as long as he doesn't get slept early, but it's hard to have a ton of confidence in him at this point.
Bets to consider: Fight goes to decision +136
This is a tough fight to bet. You can't go anywhere near Yanez at these numbers. I really don't want to bet Cody at this stage. It's hard to pick much of anything. It feels like a fight where someone is eventually going to land the big one and find the finish, but with so few strikes getting thrown, there will be long stretches with not a whole lot going on. If there were a gun to my head, I think this is probably the most interesting number out there, but this is a fight that is pretty easy to stay away from.
Gable Steveson defeats Elisha Ellison
This is a squash match if we've ever seen one. With all due respect to Elisha Ellison, he's really not a UFC level fighter. On the other side, we have Gable Steveson, who is one of the most physically gifted athletes we've ever seen enter the UFC in the bigger weight classes. This matchup really should not be any issue for him. He's an Olympic level wrestler who should come out, spike Ellison on his head, and finish him soon after. Ellison just doesn't have the tools to deal with anything Steveson is going throw at him. Based purely on athleticism and his wrestling background, Steveson could probably beat most of the top 15 today, but we'll see how far that goes. He'll have to develop his striking over time and given his athletic gifts, I imagine that he will to an extent. He appears to have some power in his hands, but it's hard to say for sure given his level of competition. I tend to think Steveson is going to get to the top of the division as quickly as the UFC decides to push him. The level of grappling he possesses is just not something you see at heavyweight basically ever, so, he'll be a real test for everyone when they push him up there. As far as this fight goes, he should be able to get in and get out as quickly as he wants. We'll see if he wants to show any striking on the big stage or if he just wants to put Ellison down from the jump.
Bets to consider: Steveson by submission +280
I don't know man, what do you want me to say? The guy is -3000. His numbers are blown to smithereens and I would rather bet on some obscure ping pong tournament that I know nothing about and lose my money that way then to lose it on Elisha Ellison even though he's +1100. This is the only thing even remotely playable with this fight.
Robert Whittaker defeats Nikita Krylov
This is another really interesting fight and we'll see Robert Whittaker making another jump in weight, this time up to 205. It's no secret on here that Rob is one of my favorite fighters and I haven't gotten to write about him in awhile. Unfortunately for him, things have looked a little rough recently. I don't really put too much stock into losing to Khamzat just because he's one of the toughest fights in the division, especially style wise for Rob. Losing to RDR the way he did really wasn't a good look though. He kept the fight mostly standing and still lost a decision where he got beaten up to the body in the clinch and gassed out. Rob was a bit undersized for the division then and now jumping up another 20 pounds, it feels like he's going to be at a real size disadvantage. As it pertains to this matchup, I do think Rob still as a slight striking edge. I would say I expect him to be faster, but with the added weight, I'm not as confident. Rob normally has really good footwork, but that didn't really seem to be there against RDR, so I'm not even feeling super confident there. Rob didn't have a ton of power for middleweight and now that is going to be even less up a division. I think I've been a bit higher on Krylov than most, but he has his flaws. It's mostly his cardio and his chin. He is reliable to slow down about half way through the fight and even though Rob isn't a high output guy, I don't expect that to change here. He also has been a bit chinny, but with Rob's power, I don't know if we'll see that be much of an issue. Krylov does have some pretty big power, at least while he's fresh in both his hands and with his kicks. Rob isn't the most durable guy ever and I don't expect moving up will really help that issue at all. A real advantage for Krylov here will be the grappling. He will obviously be bigger and while Rob does a decent job of stopping takedowns, he really doesn't have much once he is on the mat. If Krylov ended up on top, I think he has a chance to do real work there. I do have to slightly lean to the Rob side though just because a lot of their issues kind of even out. I think their durability is about the same and Rob is slightly better defensively. I do think Rob is a slightly better technical striker at range. Krylov has the grappling edge, but he doesn't really have the cardio to do it for the entire fight. It should be a pretty good fight, but I will lean on the experience and better movement from Whittaker to stay safe while Krylov is fresh and then pull away in the back half of the fight.
Bets to consider: Whittaker ML -126
Earlier in the week, I was actually considering pulling the trigger on a Krylov bet and second guessed it. Since then, the line has really slid in that direction. I think Rob was around a -145 when I thought about jumping in on Krylov but now that he's slid a whole 20 cents, I've kind of flipped. I'm going to be monitoring this line right up until the fight at this point because if it continues to move, I'm going to jump in on the Whittaker side. I think Rob being around a -140 favorite makes sense just because of the cardio gap. I might stay off just because there's a lot of unknowns and question marks going into this one for Rob, but I'll be keeping a close eye on his one.
King Green defeats Terrance McKinney
Kicking off the main card is going to be a fire fight. We all know both of these guys by this point. McKinney is going to come out and empty the tank trying to find the finish on the feet and in the grappling. I suspect that he's going to come out and try to get Green to the ground. Green is just a much better and cleaner striker, so I think even with his athletic advantages, McKinney is going to be at a disadvantage standing. Terrance is actually a pretty decent grappler and if he gets on top, he's going to have Green in a really bad spot. The thing with McKinney is the same thing that it's always been. He just has not gameplan with any substance. He just gives it everything he has until he finds the finish or gets finished himself. I wouldn’t really even say he has a cardio problem, it’s just more of a pace issue. He has no interest in even attempting to pace himself and it’s just balls to the wall from the start. I also wouldn’t say his striking is really all that great. He’s got the power, but that’s really all it is. His defense is also pretty bad and to go with it, he’s not all that durable. All of that to say, I think Green has the chance to look really good. He’s getting up there in age and his own durability is clearly declining, but he’s still got gas in the tank offensively. He still moves pretty well and has the quick reflexes he’s relied on defensively. He fights with his hands down so McKinney could end up putting him out, but I think Green is going to end up landing some really clean counters that I’m not sure McKinney can stand up to. In either case, it’s going to end pretty quickly, but I’ll take the movement, countering ability, and veteran savvy of King Green in this one
Bets to consider: Green Round 1 +210
I was originally going to advocate for the Green ML, but he’s taken some money over the last few days and has gone all the way to -106. That isn’t as obvious as a play for me and instead I would look to the round 1 at +210 or the round 1 and 2 at +125. McKinney doesn’t really allow fights to go long because he just hunts the finish and forces you to fight him. I think Green probably clips him pretty quickly and as long as he doesn’t go out himself or dive into a guillotine, he will look pretty decent.
Lone'er Kavanagh defeats Brandon Royval
We have another really good fight to follow it up. I think the crux of this fight for me comes down to the fact that I think Royval is starting to age a bit. He still gets to his game, but it’s a style that really requires you to be at the peak of your powers and when you start to fade, it’s really easy to go off a cliff. He wants to come forward and throw a ton of volume and he has the cardio to back it up. At his best, he was crazy durable and was able to march forward and eat your best shot and land 3-4 in return. I don’t really know that his durability is at that level anymore and with Lone’er on the other side, it really seems like a recipe for disaster to me. I’m not convinced Lone’er is a future champion, but he is lightning fast with legitimate power in a division where we don’t see that very often. He’s a pretty good boxer and is pretty nasty when he lands counter shots, which is kind of perfect for what Royval is going to try to do. Royval is going to want to throw first and I think Lone’er is both more technical and faster. He can probably just take Royval’s shots or roll with them and the land back harder. A younger version of Royval probably takes those shots and turns this into an absolute war. While I think it will be that for a little, I’m not sure this version of Royval can absorb the damage the same way he would’ve a few years ago. Now if he can, we have a really interesting dynamic on our hands where Lone’er probably looks good early and then Royval starts to push him to his limits late. I just think Royval’s chin is starting to go on him and I tend to think that if Lone’er actually did get into any hairy spots, he could probably land some takedowns on Royval but I wouldn’t necessarily expect him to go to them unless he gets into any hairy a bit of trouble.
Bets to consider: under 2.5 rounds +136
I don’t think betting Royval is necessarily a bad move. If he is able to stand up to the power, he probably looks like value over the second half of the fight. I just kind of have a feeling that’s not really how the fight goes. I think it’s much more likely that Lone’er counters him one too many times and puts him down. Royval will make things crazy and I’m not convinced he couldn’t finish Lone’er either so this covers some of that, although a bulk of Royval finishes likely come pretty late. I think I would rather be on an under here than trying to snipe the dog in Royval.
Cory Sandhagen defeats Mario Bautista
This is probably one of the closest fights of the night and it kind of leaves me without much to say because I think the fight projects to be so even. I really can’t imagine this fight now being competitive and close at the end of the night. When I look at Cory, I think his advantages are that he’s got more high level experience and he’s the bigger of the two. I think he has slightly better output, I trust his cardio to hold up even if he’s on the back foot, and he’s the much more dynamic of the two. For Mario, he’s much more of a pure boxer in the striking than Cory who likes to mix in a lot more different types of techniques. Mario also has really good cardio and if anyone is going to have an edge grappling, it’s probably him. I think he could probably get a takedown or two and in a fight that otherwise projects to be close, that could be enough to swing it. I lean ever so slightly to the Sandhagen side, mostly based on how I’ve seen him compete at the highest level of competition, but it really is only a slight lean.
Bets to consider: Sandhagen by decision +180
I really don’t see a need to bet this fight, but if you have some conviction in a side, taking their decision prop buys back some money. Sandhagen is -135 or so and his decision is +180 and Mario ML is +115 about and his decision is +185. If you more firmly stand on a side than I do then I think that might be the way to play it, but I’ll be sitting this one out.
Benoit St. Denis defeats Paddy Pimblett
I’m actually looking forward to this fight but I’m not really sure how viewer friendly it’s going to be. I tend to think this fight is going to be a lot more grappling heavy than what I’ve heard some people saying. We know BSD is going to come out on the front foot and look to push the pace. I imagine we see these guys spend a lot of time in the clinch and up a long the cage. I just think BSD has the advantage there. I think he’s stronger than Paddy and just a better wrestler than Paddy. I think BSD is way more likely to get a bulk of the top time in this one. If paddy did somehow get on top, I think he could look just as good. For as much bad as I’ve said about the guy in the past, he is dangerous on top and BSD doesn’t always look very good from his back. If we get any striking exchanges, your guess is as good as mine. Both guys have a little bit of power and no defense. I can’t really say the striking favors one over the other because we saw paddy landing clean on Gaethje and didn’t really even make him take a step back, so I’m not banking on him stopping BSD in his tracks. At the same time, paddy took every shot Gaethje threw at him, so I tend to believe he can take the shots from BSD here. Even with the insane pace BSD pushes, I tend to think his cardio is probably better late and I think he is much more likely for top time and clinch control time. I don’t really see paddy being able to sub him from guard. I think the only real way I see paddy finding the sub is to capitalize on a mistake, which is probably more likely here than in most fights. BSD is extremely reckless and will probably give paddy a chance to jump for a guillotine at least once. I could see him falling off the top and ending up on bottom or just rushing things and ending up out of position for paddy to take advantage of as well. This fight is going to be frantic and as long as it’s not taking place in the clinch for too long, it should be action packed.
Bets to consider: St. Denis ML -146
I don’t know there’s a ton of meat on the bone at this number, but I think there is a little. I just think that all of his advantages make BSD somewhere around -170. I really don’t think he can lose this fight without making some mistakes and while his style makes him more prone to that than the average fighter, I have a hard time seeing paddy actually capitalize on it in a big way. Even if he does make a mistake or two, I just can’t really see paddy submitting him in any sort of process oriented way. I might pull the trigger.
Max Holloway defeats Conor McGregor
We’ve made it to the main event of the evening and I’m not sure what is left to say, but I’ll try to put my spin on it. I think we all know that Conor is not the guy he used to be. His last fight was 5 years and a broken ankle ago. He’s not going to come back and all of the sudden be better than he was when we last saw him in both Poirier fights. Most likely he’s going to be worse. Conor most likely still has pretty good power in his left hand and can still throw the kicks that were so vital to his success once upon a time. It’s just hard to imagine him really having much of a chance beyond the 8 minute mark of this fight. Even at his best, his cardio was questionable and for it to be any better now would be one of the most unforeseen developments in the history of the sport. I think his chin is most likely declined as he really didn’t seem to be taking shots well against Dustin. I really don’t think being away for so long is good for any fighter, but especially someone like Conor. At his peak, some of his best attributes were his timing and his ability to perfectly manage range. It’s hard to keep those tools as sharp as they were without actually fighting. On the other side is Max who has done basically the opposite of Conor. While Conor has been mostly away, Max has been fighting almost only elite competition for the better part of the last 10 years. Max, pretty clearly, is starting to regress, but even then it’s only slight. His chin isn’t quite what it used to be. Being knocked out by Ilia is kind of whatever and he got hurt bad by Dustin but even then, I don’t think that’s a sign that he has one foot in the grave already. His defense isn’t very good but it never has been. Could Conor land a huge left and put him out? I guess so? He could sting him for sure, but I have a hard time believing he has Topuria type power in his left still where he’s able to cleanly drop Max with one shot. Max also isn’t just going to dive into the pocket and swing with Conor. Max has his moments where he can be reckless, but it is typically later in the fight when he knows his opponent is tired and not able to hit him with their full power anymore. I don’t think Conor has 0 chance, but it’s certainly not a good chance. If he doesn’t finish Max in the first round to round and a half, I think he likely gets finished himself not too long after that.
Bets to consider: Holloway ML -230
I’m most likely going to be betting Max here. I know the casual money always comes in on the Conor side no matter what but -230 is a bit shocking to me. I don’t know how the sharp money hasn’t moved it to at least -300 if not wider. I know there’s the size conversation and that it’s a huge jump for Max, which it is, but I don’t really think it’s all that big of a deal. It’s not like Conor wasn’t also a featherweight at one point or has any height or reach advantages of huge significance. I think a nice bet on max makes sense.
That’s it from me on this card. It’s a long one, so it should be a great night of action. Enjoy the card and thanks for reading. Official bets are below.
Official Bets
Reese ML 0.75 units at +114
Basharat/Garza Over 2.5 rounds 0.75 units at -122
Tracy Cortez ML 0.5 units at -104
Robert Whittaker ML 0.75 units at -120
King Green Round 1 or 2 1 unit at +125
Benoit St. Denis ML 1.46 units at -146
Max Holloway ML 6 units at -260
Net Gain/Loss
Event Total:
Previous Year to Date Total: +5.59 units
Updated Year to Date Total:
UPDATE:
Weekly Record:
Previous Year to Date Record:16-4
Updated Year to Date Record:
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