Well, last week was a blood bath from the betting side of things for me and my first losing week since returning, but man was it brutal. I felt pretty good about most of my plays and they just really didn't go my way at all. Maybe it is a good thing for me that this week's card is pretty bad. There's not very many good fights and not too many places to jump in for a bet, so maybe a slow week is what I will need to get back on track. Let's get to it. Just to be clear, my picks will be in the bolded font, and the real results will be listed next to it in italics after the fight is official. Official bets will be at the bottom. Bets are now being officially tracked at BetMMA as well.
Abdul Hussein defeats Cody Gibson Result:
In a card full of uninteresting fights, we'll start with one of them. In the grand scheme of things, I think there are some questions that Hussein will need to answer before anyone can properly project just how far he can go, but I don't really suspect Cody Gibson is the guy who will provide enough resistance to answer many, if any of those for us. Hussein seems pretty good and pretty well rounded, but it is easy to do so when you've had the level of competition that he's had. How he holds up against true UFC level skills, especially if someone can force him into an extended fight is going to be interesting when that day comes, but I don't really think Gibson is the one to do it. He's on the older side of things and seems to be declining. He's not super durable at this point and not the strongest defensive grappler. I kind of think Hussein has him covered pretty much everywhere, so it is really a matter of how he decides to attack Gibson that will dictate just how long this fight will go.
Bets to consider: Over 1.5 rounds -128
I wouldn't go as far as to say that I am tempted by the over, but it is an intriguing thought. The reason I considered it briefly is because, if I had to guess, I think Hussein can and will grapple Gibson. Gibson isn't a particularly strong defensive grappler, but I don't think Hussein would get on top of him and just insta-sub him either. The reason that I am ultimately staying off of it is because if Hussein decides to strike or if Gibson can stuff a takedown or two and discourage Hussein from going to it, I think Hussein could just as easily knock Gibson out standing. The ITD is a little too far gone for me to be that tempted by it just because it is hard to say what the finishing potential is for Hussein after a round because we don't have much of a feel for what his cardio looks like past the first 5 minutes.
Nurullo Aliev defeats Mike Davis Result:
There was a time in my betting life where I probably would bet Davis in this fight. There was also probably a time where Mike Davis would have had a real shot to win this one, but I think that time is behind us. Davis has always had tremendous potential and raw tools, but he has never quite put it together and now it feels like he's on the decline a bit. All things considered, he's just very ok pretty much everywhere but he was always fast and a good athlete and it made you feel like he had another level in him that he could potentially reach. It just doesn't really feel like that is in the cards for him anymore and as far as this matchup goes, I suspect Aliev will be able to wrestle him, not easily necessarily, but consistently. There are 2 main issues I see with Aliev going forward and the first is that he doesn't look very good off of his back. I think he is a better wrestler than Davis, which is the main reason I'm picking him to win, but if he gets reversed or somehow ends up on bottom, things could get bad for him quickly. The other thing is that his cardio does not seem very good at all and while I think he can probably still get takedowns, he may look bad down the stretch of this one.
Bets to consider: Aliev by decision +105
Another fight that is hard to find a place to jump in for me. I'm not all that interested in the Davis side although I have seen people willing to take the shot on him. If anything, I was hoping that maybe the price would come in on Aliev but that hasn't happened either. I don't really expect this fight to finish. If anything, I guess Aliev could just melt down the stretch, but I think even a tired Aliev will be able to grapple with Davis and hang on. The over is over -200 at this point and I can't really get behind that, so I would rather have Aliev by decision at plus money, but I'm ok not losing money on this fight.
Magomed Tuchalov defeats Brendson Ribeiro Result:
Another really uninteresting fight up next. In short, Ribeiro has some pretty good power while he has the cardio to do anything. If he doesn't find a knockout in the first 3-5 minutes, he's going to get finished himself shortly thereafter. I'm not going to sit here and say that Tuchalov is a future champion or even that I think he's outstanding, but he's decently well rounded and that is going to be more than enough here. As long as he doesn't do anything stupid, he'll finish Ribeiro within the first 8 minutes or so.
Bets to consider: Ribeiro ML +590
Look, there's not much to say. It's MMA. It's really hard for someone to be +600 and actually look worse than that. Ribeiro is big and he has a lot of power. He's a dangerous first round finisher. Take the dart throw if you want, but that's really the only thing I can think of for a fight like this.
Ismael Bonfim defeats Axel Sola Result:
This is one of the very few interesting spots on this entire card. I think Bonfim is a pretty solid fighter. He's a pretty good boxer and is able to mix in his kicks pretty well. He's pretty fast and has slightly above average power for the division. His grappling isn't amazing, but it's ok and he stops takedowns at a solid enough rate. The biggest thing is that he can sometimes be hard to trust in terms of his push back when things aren't going his way. He's a great hammer, but not a very good nail. When things aren't going his way, he has a tendency to let things snowball on him and kind of melt. While that is a concern, I don't think Sola really profiles as the kind of guy who is likely to take advantage of that kind of thing. Much like I said about Bonfim, Sola is a decent enough striker. I just think he's going to give Bonfim the kind of fight that allows him to look pretty good. Sola just isn't a guy who pushes much of a pace at all. He landed 45 strikes in 12 minutes against McKee and 65 in 15 against Mason Jones and neither of those guys have any defense at all. That kind of pace while being at a speed disadvantage doesn't really seem like the type of skillset that is going to break Bonfim. He is going to be bigger, but I don't think Sola is a particularly great wrestler, so I don't expect much top time. Maybe he just pushes him up against the cage and clinches Bonfim up and grinds him down that way, but any way I slice it, I think this fight is competitive and lean to the faster guy with more diverse strikes and higher level experience.
Bets to consider: Bonfim ML +172
Given everything I just said, I think a Bonfim play makes a lot of sense. Even if you wanted to say that you have to favor Sola because of the tendency to melt on Bonfim side, I don't think that pushes Sola out to -200. You can justify small favorite Sola but nothing beyond that. I'll have something on Bonfim.
Sam Patterson defeats Santiago Ponzinibbio Result:
Another dumb fight. Shoutout to Santiago Ponzinibbio man. He had his time in the rankings and was always someone you could rely on to put on good fights. He overcame a ton of health issues as well to come back and still be a good fighter. Those days are well into the past though. I'm not really sure why he's still fighting at all, let alone someone like Patterson. I'm not sure if I ever wrote about Patterson on here or not, but I probably underrated him a bit when he first came into the UFC. He's proven to be better and more dangerous than I gave him credit for, whether I wrote about it here or not. I have my doubts that he will ever be a true contender or someone who should be ranked, but he's more than enough here. I guess there's an outside chance Ponz can get inside and knock him out, but that feels really unlikely. He's slowed down quite a bit and his durability is fading quickly. This one should be over pretty early. Patterson probably finds a quick finish, most likely a knockout.
Bets to consider: Patterson by KO +100
I was a bit surprised to see Patterson by KO at plus money. It isn't very often someone who isn't a dominant wrestler or grappler is a -500 or better favorite on the ML and their KO is in the plus money, but that is is what we have here. It wouldn't surprise me I guess if Patterson submitted him, but at the same time, I don't think it's so likely that it should be in serious doubt. I might take a small poke at it just because it feels like such a strange combination of numbers.
Dustin Jacoby defeats Muhammad Said Result:
This is one of the few other interesting fights on the card. I think this fight sort of comes down to just how rapidly is Jacoby declining. I have long been a fan of his skillset, but it is pretty obvious he's on the back end and experiencing some regression. The degree of which is likely what determines the outcome of this fight. Skill for skill, Jacoby is just much better. He's a much cleaner striker and a good enough defensive grappler that I don't really suspect that Said can have much success there. On the feet, Said has some power, but I just don't really see how he lands on Jacoby unless he truly is just washed. Jacoby never had amazing durability to begin with and that has probably gotten worse since we've seen him last. A big shot can certainly put him down, but if it doesn't, I don't really see how he loses. Even with his decline, I think he's probably faster. He's a much more gifted kickboxer. If Said doesn't bonk him, then Jacoby probably looks pretty good. It's hard to say exactly how regressed he is, but I think he has enough in the tank to look good in this one.
Bets to consider: Jacoby ML -174
I'm probably not going to make the bet unless we see the line slide a decent bit at this point, but I really did think about it. This is a hard one to pull the trigger on. If it turns how Jacoby is washed, Said probably finishes him and looks like a great bet at plus money. If it turns out Jacoby still has some fight left in him, then he probably looks way better than the -174 price that you're getting here. It is just so hard to say which version we're getting and why I am ultimately staying away from it.
Thomas Petersen defeats Valter Walker Result:
I think the time has come where I have to admit Valter Walker is probably better and has experienced more success in the UFC than I would have guessed. With that said, I still don't really think he's all that amazing of a fighter. Walker is dangerous. He obviously has a really good heel hook and I think he's got a decent amount of power while he's fresh. Outside of that, I really don't think he has all that much. If he rolls for the leg and doesn't get it, I think he's going to end up on bottom and probably look pretty bad. He's not a good striker and he doesn't have good cardio. I don't think he's a particularly good wrestler either. That isn't to say Petersen is great because he has issues as well, but to me, he seems to have really clear paths to victory. Petersen is a better fighter in pretty much every way. He's a better striker, a better wrestler, and has better cardio. I don't really think Petersen has a great chin and his defense isn't great either. Walker has the power to put him down, but the gap in striking is pretty significant. Walker doesn't really react to shots well and I don't really think he has the wrestling to end up on top.
Bets to consider: Petersen ML +156
In short, I just think this line is wrong. I think Petersen should be favored outright. There's ways Walker can win, but they aren't amazing paths. Sure, he can jump the heel hook again and maybe he gets it. Sure, he can rush Petersen early and knock him out. If he doesn't, I think his chances sort of end there. He doesn't have the grappling to get on top. He doesn't have the striking to compete at space. Most importantly, he doesn't have the cardio or pace to hold up even if he can have little pockets of success early. I'll be on Petersen and I'm consider taking a little bit of his ITD at +410 as well.
Abubakar Vagaev defeats Saygid Izagakhmaev Result:
I just can't really get into this fight. Vagaev seems like he will actually be pretty good. He's pretty well rounded as well. He seems like a pretty good striker and a pretty good grappler and wrestler. His cardio seems like it holds up well on top of that. Saygid on the other hand is coming off of a UFC debut where he really didn't look very good. Dalby is a tricky fight and is one of those guys who has a way about him where he is able to compete and win fights where it seems like he's out gunned, but even then, it's a tough look for Saygid. I really don't think he's it and especially not in this matchup. I think his best skill is his grappling, but even then, I think Vagaev is better and a better wrestler. This seems like a spot where Vagaev can look pretty good.
Bets to consider: Vagaev ML -250
I'm trying to be better about finding favorites who I think can actually be wider favorites as that has been a weak spot for me for a long time now and I think this could be one of them. I really think Vagaev has him covered everywhere in a pretty noticeable way. He's a better striker, wrestler, grappler, and has better cardio. I don't really suspect that either side has a ton of equity to find a finish here, so I think I might have to jump in on Vagaev.
Rizvan Kuniev defeats Tyrell Fortune Result:
This fight has an outside chance of being interesting, but most likely won't be. Fortune does some good things that would normally be intriguing as an underdog. I wouldn't say he's a good striker, but he isn't horrible. His strength is that he's a good wrestler, but he isn't always the best control grappler. The biggest red flag in his game is that he has the same trait we talked about with Bonfim earlier. Whenever things don't go his way, he just doesn't really have the resistance to stop the snowball from rolling down hill. His gameplan is to get the takedowns and lay on top of you and if he can't do that, he really doesn't have anywhere else to turn. Kuniev, for all of his flaws, kind of has a great style to combat that. He's not an amazing grappler by any means and I suspect Fortune may be able to get a takedown or two. However, I don't really think he's going to be able to hold him down and once they get back to the feet, Kuniev is going to sling big power shots at him with a much higher work rate than anything Fortune is going to throw back. I think the power and volume from Kuniev eventually melt Fortune and probably finish him on the back end.
Bets to consider: Under 2.5 rounds +118
While very different for obvious reasons, this fight gives similar vibes to a point I made about Ricci vs Kline last week. It kind of feels like Fortune has the skillset where he can kind of make it closer than the moneyline suggests, but also doesn't have the skillset to actually win at a high clip. I feel like there are many iterations of this fight where Fortune looks better than +265, but few where he is better enough to actually pull of the upset. With that said, I think the under would be the move. I think Fortune can have some success, but I really think Kuniev can put it on him in the second round and on. If Fortune is able to land his takedowns into the second and third rounds then maybe we are having a different conversation, but if he's already getting stuffed at the end of the first, I think he probably gets finished pretty quickly after that. The number isn't great, but it is worth thinking about.
Magomed Zaynukov defeats Damian Rzepecki Result:
This fight is actually pretty fun. We get to see the debut of John Pork and at this point in the card, that is enough to keep me awake. Both guys are high pace dynamic strikers who are probably going to stand and swing. I think what separates Zaynukov for me is that I think his striking is just a bit more crisp and his defense is a little bit better. I don't think the gap is huge and that it swings the fight drastically, but they are enough where it feels like Zaynukov should be a nice sized favorite. The one thing on the Damian side is that I think he might have a chance to grapple, but it's really hard to tell. I don't really expect that we see much grappling and in that scenario, I have to be on the Zaynukov side, but if they're going to swing, it certainly wouldn't surprise me to see Damian snatch the upset.
Bets to consider: U2.5 rounds +104
In a fight that projects to be as high action as this, it did surprise me a bit that we get plus money on the under. While both guys seem durable, I just think a high action fight like this needs a minus number on an under 2.5. Maybe they both hold up or the debut spotlight gets to them and they aren't as aggressive, but I think I'll take a small poke at this under.
Islam Dulatov defeats Wellington Turman Result:
This is a bizarre fight. I honestly didn't know Turman was still in the UFC or even fighting in general but here we are. I feel pretty comfortable saying that Dulatov is not particularly good. He just comes out and throws bombs until he lands and knocks his opponent out. He's got huge power and he's super aggressive, but that's really about it. The thing with Turman is that he really also isn't all that good and he's been away for over 3 years at this point. In a perfect world, I think Turman could have a path. Dulatov has no defense and there's no reason to expect that his cardio would hold up. The issue is that Turman isn't a very good striker and his power isn't all that impressive. He's shown some flashes grappling but his wrestling isn't anything noteworthy and even if it was, he doesn't have the cardio to maintain it. All of that is now coming off of a 3 year layoff when it looked like he was in decline before that. There's just no way to expect Turman to look any good here. Maybe he can clinch Dulatov and grind on him that way and look better after Dulatov gasses, but Turman doesn't really have the cardio for that either in my opinion.
Bets to consider: Turman ML +640
Like I was mentioning earlier, it is really hard for someone to be +640 pre fight and look worse than that. Given the flaws in Dulatov's game, I just can't imagine Turman looking worse than the number we have now. The line is probably wide just because Dulatov doesn't have a style that can be -1000 against anyone actually worthy of a UFC contract, but I really don't think I will be able to continue on if I lose money on Wellington Turman.
Steve Erceg defeats Ramazan Temirov Result:
This is the last good fight and probably the closest fight of the night. I ultimately lean the Steve side, but it should be close and competitive. Temirov is the kind of fighter who is at his best early and it is just a slow decline from there. The longer the fight goes, the more likely we are to see Steve take over. Temirov is going to come at him early and throw power. We've seen that Erceg's chin is not the best ever and it would not surprise me one bit to see him knocked out again here. If that doesn't happen though, it feels like the fight starts to swing to Steve pretty quickly. I don't really think he can grapple Temirov while he's fresh, but once he wears down, it could be in the cards for Erceg to get a takedown. The biggest thing for me is just the size gap. Temirov is going to go at Steve, but he's so much smaller and the reach gap is so wide that he's really going to have to work to close the distance and I think Steve is going to be able to see a lot of those shots coming and either avoid them or land on the counter. Maybe it turns out that Temirov is just too powerful and finishes Steve early or he's able to get his own grappling going, but I have a slight lean to the Erceg side in this one.
Bets to consider: Erceg ML -108
This fight is pick em and I've seen people on both sides of it all week. If you have more conviction than I do then I think picking a side is probably the way to go, but I really don't have enough confidence to place my money on Erceg here.
Magomed Ankalaev defeats Bogdan Guskov Result:
To me, there's really only one way for Guskov to win this fight. I think he just has to come out and just send it. Ankalaev doesn't really do a whole lot volume wise and we saw Pereira have success doing this not too long ago. There are 2 problems with this. One is that Guskov is not Alex Pereira. The other is that Ankalaev is still a lot better at pretty much everything. Ankalaev is a much better striker and maybe Guskov has more power, but Ankalaev has more than enough power himself. He also has all of the wrestling ability in this fight. It's past 2 am and these fights start at 9 for me so, I don't know what else to say. Ankalaev can likely do whatever he wants as long as he avoids the knockout in the first round.
Bets to consider: Over 2.5 rounds +112
I don't think I can or will ever bet another Ankalaev under. I've just seen him drag too many fighters that he's way better than way longer than he should. He was about to go to a decision against Paul Craig before he got triangled. He went to decision against Klidson Abreu. He went to a third round against Dalcha Lungiambula. He went to decision against Nikita Krylov. He went to a 5 round decision against the corpse of Thiago Santos. While he's been better since, those are hard to unsee. I don't know if I'll actually play it, but I thought about it for a second.
It's late. The card is early. The bets are below. Enjoy the card and have a great rest of your weekend.
Official Bets
Ismael Bonfim ML 0.75 units at +172
Patterson by KO 1 unit at +100
Thomas Petersen ML 2 units at +156
Petersen ITD 0.5 units at +410
Abubakar Vagaev ML 2 units at -250
Zaynukov/Rzepecki Under 2.5 rounds 0.5 units at +104
Net Gain/Loss
Event Total:
Previous Year to Date Total: +0.42 units
Updated Year to Date Total:
UPDATE:
Weekly Record:
Previous Year to Date Record: 32-14
Updated Year to Date Record:
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