The UFC keeps rolling out interesting cards and this weekend is no exception. The co-main even will feature ranked welterweights Michael Chiesa and Sean Brady. This is a typical UFC pattern as we'll see a veteran who took a step back against a rising prospect. This will also be a grappling heavy fight as both fighters prefer that the fight takes place on the ground rather than stand up, which will be a good change of pace from most of the fights that take place within the rankings. Typically, we see a striker versus a grappler or two strikers, but grappler versus grappler doesn't happen very often anymore, especially within the top 15. Just because it will likely be grappling heavy, doesn't mean it will be boring because I don't expect to see either guy just working for control and position. Both guys will go for submission attempts as Chiesa has 11 submission wins and Brady has 4 in only 14 career fights.
Michael Chiesa represents the veteran side of this matchup. He has more experience in terms of both volume and level of competition. Chiesa won the ultimate fighter back in 2012 and has had more success than failure during his UFC career, but hasn't managed to really break through into the top of a division just yet. He can't quite seem to get over the hump when it comes to the victory that will get him into the top 5, but his losses generally come against really high level competition. His only UFC losses come against Jorge Masvidal, Joe Lauzon, Kevin Lee, Anthony Pettis, and Vicente Luque, so it's not like those losses are anything to be ashamed of. He also has some really good wins on his resume including Jim Miller, Al Iaquinta, and Beneil Dariush. Since making the move to welterweight, he added 4 consecutive wins over Carlos Condit, Diego Sanchez, Rafael Dos Anjos, and Neil Magny. His streak was stopped by Vicente Luque, which was his last appearance. Chiesa's striking isn't the best, but I think he may have to use it a little bit in this one. He will have both the height and reach advantage in this one and I would like to see him use it to keep Brady at a distance until he's ready to shoot his own takedowns. If he can use that length to prevent Brady from closing the distance and then close that distance on his own terms, I think that would go a long way towards him coming out victorious on Saturday. Chiesa's striking looks rudimentary at times and the stats say that he lands 1.87 per minute and absorbs 1.72 per minute. He doesn't dish out a lot of damage with strikes, but he also doesn't take a lot of damage either. He averages 3.62 takedowns per 15 minutes but only at a 53% rate. Michael Chiesa is the more known commodity in this one. Those stats have all largely come against high level opponents.
As for Brady, we'll start with the stats for comparison. He lands 4.72 strikes per minute and absorbs 3.60 per minute. As for grappling, he lands 2.69 takedowns per 15 at a 60% rate with a 100% takedown defense. If you were just to compare numbers, it would seem like a no brainer that Brady is the better fighter. However, all of these stats have come against lesser competition, with none of his past opponents being near the level of Chiesa at the time Brady fought them. With that said, I do believe Brady can win the fight if this stays on the feet. While I consider him a grappler if I had to define him, he is much more comfortable kick boxing then Chiesa is and the stats suggest as much. I also believe that Brady has the power advantage. With all due respect to Jake Matthews, that's a big jump to make. We'll see how Brady can fair but, I do think this is a matchup where he has some advantages. I do just wonder if this will be too much too fast for him. That's where all the questions are with Brady at this point. His skills have looked fantastic, we are just waiting to see how long it takes before he faces some resistance and I think the pressure and pace from Chiesa will do just that. Brady is 14-0 as a pro and 4-0 in the UFC. His wins have come over Jake Matthews, Christian Aguilera, Court McGee, and Ismail Naurdiev. It seems a little strange that Brady would go from Matthews and jump all the way up to the number 6 ranked guy, but they're clearly not asking me for my opinion. It's a fight that I'm excited to see because a win for Chiesa will put him back on track to potentially get a shot at Kamaru Usman in the future and a win for Brady could potentially fast track him for his own title shot.
I'll make my picks like I do every Saturday morning, so be on the look out for those. What do you guys think? Do you think this matchup favors one over the other? Who do you think comes out with the victory? Leave any and all predictions below. As always thanks for reading and have a good one.
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