We kicked off 2022 with a bumpy start for last weeks card, but I'll honestly take 6-4 on that card without complaining too much. That was a card that wasn't a whole lot of fun to pick and if it wasn't the first card on in a month, probably wouldn't have been a whole lot of fun to watch either. I'm not someone who complains about cards very often like so many fans love to do. Of course there are cards that are better than others, but most weeks, I can just appreciate that I have something to look forward to every week. Last week and this week however leave a lot to be desired. We were spoiled with the last couple of pay per view cards last year being absolutely stacked. This week's UFC 270 is sort of like a fight night card with 2 title fights tacked on at the end. With that said, I do think this weeks will be better than last week by a bit outside of the main and comain. Michel Pereira is a lot of things, but boring isn't one of them. Said Nurmagomedov vs Cody Stamann should be decent and Barcelos vs Henry should be interesting too. Maddalena vs Rodriguez as well as Giles vs Morales have a chance to be decent watches, so while this isn't a great card with a lot of name value, it shouldn't be too bad to watch. Enough of that, let's get into the picks. Just to be clear, my picks will be in the bolded font, and the real results will be listed next to it in italics after the fight is official.
Silvana Gomez Juarez defeats Vanessa Demopoulos Result: Demopoulos by sub (0-1)
First fight listed, at least according to the UFC stats page, and I already don't know what to do. Not sure what exactly the bout order will be after all of the cancellations, but I'll use that order. Both fighters stats are less than ideal, but its in only 3 total fights combined, all losses. Gomez Juarez has a significant reach advantage and has most of her wins outside of the UFC via TKO and is 10-3 overall. Her stats come from less than 1 round against Loopy Goodinez, so they're not even worth referencing. Demopoulos is 0-2 in the UFC and has most of her career wins via submission. She's 6-4 overall. Demopoulos is known for her submission abilities and we just saw Gomez Juarez finished via submission, which could pose a problem, but I'll go with the experience, better overall record, and long reach of Juarez.
I started typing this, went to get some food, started watching a hockey game, and when I came back they had a different bout order, but I’m just going with it at this point.
Jasmine Jasudavicius defeats Kay Hansen Result: Jasudavicius by decision (1-1)
Another tough one right up front. Jasudavicius is coming off of her contender series win that saw her control her opponent on the ground for a good portion of the fight. I think she's the better striker of the two in this fight and has a pretty sizable reach advantage. She's also the more aggressive striker of the two. I think Hansen may have the grappling advantage, but that's not obviously clear. I like Jasudavicius in this one.
Genaro Valdez defeats Matt Frevola Result: Frevola by TKO (1-2)
Valdez is another fighter making their debut after winning on the contender series. Valdez hit takedown after takedown in that fight (4 in just under 6 minutes) and Frevola defends takedowns at 40% success. I think there's a good chance that we see Valdez get a lot of control time in this one. Valdez isn't a technical striker, but he's game and has power. We've seen Frevola knocked out before on an isolated strike. Valdez did gas fairly quickly in that one fight, but I like his skills in this one.
Tony Gravely defeats Saimon Oliveira Result: Gravely by decision (2-2)
Oliveira is yet another fighter making their debut after the contender series. He has good power on the feet and an aggressive grappler with submission skills. Tony Gravely is more of a veteran is will relentlessly wrestle for all 15 minutes. Oliveira has 100% takedown defense after that one fight, but that will almost assuredly not be the case after Saturday. Gravely is the more active of the two in the striking and I think that will be important for him to keep Oliveira guessing and not be anticipating the takedown attempts as much. I know Gravely and I know his skills, I think this might be a little too much for Oliveira in his debut.
Jack Della Maddalena defeats Pete Rodriguez Result: Della Maddalena by TKO (3-2)
This one should largely be a brawl on the feet. Neither guy is a particularly technical striker (in terms of professional fighters of course), but both have power and are willing to step into the pocket and swing. Rodriguez is really green. This will only be his 5th professional bout and his level of competition isn't particularly high. Maddalena has shown more and has the experience advantage overall, I like his striking a little more too. He's just a little more refined at this time.
Raoni Barcelos defeats Victor Henry Result: Henry by decision (3-3)
Victor Henry is a relatively unknown to the more casual MMA fan. He's making his UFC debut and if you don't know, he's actually pretty damn good. He's very well rounded and presents some serious skills. The problem is Raoni Barcelos is also really good. I may go as far as to say he's one of the best fighters that you don't know. He's extremely well rounded and has both striking skills and grappling skills that would be enough to get him far in MMA without the other. I have to take him against someone making their debut, but Henry is a name to keep an eye on going forward.
Trevin Giles defeats Michael Morales Result: Morales by TKO (3-4)
This one is actually pretty close. Morales is the better offensive grappler, but I think Giles has enough defense to keep things standing. On the feet, Morales is more active, while Giles is a little more reserved. The difference maker for me is that Giles takes way less damage. His striking defense is really good, where Morales striking defense is only 37% as opposed to Giles' 60%. I think that gives him the edge as Morales makes his debut coming off of contender series (another one).
Said Nurmagomedov defeats Cody Stamann Result: Nurmagomedov by sub (4-4)
Despite his Nurmagomedov name, Said is much more of a striker than a wrestler. He's a pretty damn dangerous one at that. He has really good kicks and uses them well to keep the fight at range, which will be key against Stamann. In this matchup, Stamann needs the fight to be in close quarters in the clinch or on the ground. Nurmagomedov is a decent wrestler, but he only uses it defensively. He's slick and powerful on the feet, but also avoids damage really well. I like him to get the win here.
Michel Pereira defeats Andre Fialho Result: Pereira by decision (5-4)
Pereira is a wild man to the highest degree. He's going to throw something spinning and something we've never seen before at some point in the fight. When he's not being an actual crazy person, he's actually a really good fighter. His wild techniques lead him to gassing out sometimes, but if he can dial that back slightly, he could be a real problem. He is fast, powerful, and dynamic to the highest degree. He has the quickness and power in the striking to finish anyone at any time. He hits takedowns pretty well and defends them at a 100% rate. Fialho is making his UFC debut and he does have power. If Pereira starts doing that thing that he does where he starts playing around, he could get caught and hurt badly. He has shown a pretty good chin, but I wouldn't want to rely on it all the time. I can't pick against him in this one, but I don't think Fialho is completely hopeless.
Deiveson Figueiredo defeats Brandon Moreno Result: Figueiredo by decision (6-4)
This is so hard to pick. There's a point and counterpoint for everything you can say about either man. When Figueiredo had a good weight cut, he won the fight, which ended in a draw due to him having a point taken after a low blow. When Figueiredo had a bad weight cut, he lost miserably. Figueiredo was the second man on the scale and looked good this time. I like his power and finishing ability in this one. He's the stronger fighter in the grappling situations and will have the power on the feet. Moreno has the cardio advantage and is probably the cleaner boxer, but I just like Figueiredo to find a way.
Francis Ngannou defeats Ciryl Gane Result: Ngannou by decision (7-4)
I don't know man. I know I should probably pick Gane. He has more ways to win, but I just feel like Francis gets it done. I believe in patient Francis. It only takes 1 shot for him to get the win and I believe that he will find it. If this gets out of the second round, its Gane's fight to lose. I've gone back and forth on this one a few times, just like I did Poirier vs Oliveira and I decided on the right one for that so maybe I can go back to back.
What do you guys think? Are you riding with me or fading me? Leave your picks in the comments. I'll shout you out on twitter if you get a better record than me, just leave your @. Leave any other thoughts you have below as well. Thanks for reading, have a good one, and enjoy the fights. As always, I'll be back probably Sunday morning to update this and update my record and all of that stuff.
UPDATE: Well, I actually forgot to update this. I started writing the next thing and then realized I never did those so, here I am. Got off to a bumpy start, but finished strong for a decent showing overall. We had some things go our way with the Figueiredo decision and unforeseen improvements by Ngannou. The only bad break was Gomez Juarez not being able to get the finish and then submitted shortly after. I said respect Victor Henry, but didn't expect him to be able to best Barcelos in his debut. Not a bad week, especially with so many debuting fighters.
Weekly Record: 7-4
Previous Year to Date: 6-4
New Year to Date: 13-8
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