I foreshadowed that Marina Rodriguez vs Yan Xiaonan could be the fight of the night on Saturday and I think I was right. The UFC opted to give the bonus to Masvidal and Covington instead, but I don't think there was really a fight better than this one. Maybe you could argue Turner vs Mullarkey, but I think that was too one sided to be a true fight of the night. It only makes sense that the fight that was probably for the next number one contender spot for the women's strawweight title. This division is in a bit of an unfortunate spot in that Rose Namajunas is one of the more inactive champions in the UFC right now. This has sort of created a back log of opponents in the top 5. Carla Esparza seemingly locked up the next title shot when she defeated Yan Xiaonan and that was almost a year ago now in May. Rose last defended her title in November. We've seen 4 PPV cards pass since and there's not even a rumored date for her next fight. We know she won't be fighting in April and it seems unlikely we see her in June since there's already 2 title fights booked for that card. May would in theory have an open spot, but if that is going to happen, we probably would have gotten the announcement already because an 8 week training camp would be starting now. Pushing a title fight with Carla all the way until July sets up the fight with Rodriguez to take place no earlier than November. If Carla wins, then maybe that schedule gets sped up a little bit, but that remains to be seen. We are getting a bit ahead of ourselves, so lets bring it back to this past weekend.
Marina Rodriguez was able to just edge out a very close decision victory. I honestly thought the judges were going to score the fight for Xiaonan, but Rodriguez ended up getting the win due to her volume of strikes. She was able to out land Xiaonan in both the 2nd and 3rd round, which was enough to get the win. Now, I was definitely wrong in my initial assessment of this fight. I thought this matchup favored Rodriguez a little more than it did because I thought she would have the speed advantage. It was very clear from the jump that Xiaonan was the faster fighter, which made it a lot closer than I anticipated. She did have the power advantage, but not by as much as I originally thought. What she did well was to limit Xiaonan's volume striking and out strike her in 2 of the 3 rounds, which I saw as an advantage for Xiaonan based on the numbers. This was an extremely high level striking affair that was back and forth for basically the entire contest. Xianonan was able to win the first round pretty clearly and Rodriguez got the 3rd round, but the second round was really up in the air. Rodriguez did a better job as the fight went on of getting into the clinch to use her knees, which slowed the pace down, which worked in her favor. She was also less willing to just stand and exchange later in the fight. When she was just standing and throwing shots, Xiaonan was able to use her speed to land counters at a higher clip. Rodriguez tightened things up late and focused on landing fewer strikes per exchange and instead getting out of the pocket and avoiding more of Xiaonan's punches. I think Rodriguez still needs to work on her grappling and takedown defense as she ended up on her back again in the early part of the fight. If she does go on to fight Rose, Zhang Weili, or Carla Esparza, she will have to get her takedown defense in order or she's going to spend a lot of those fights on her back.
I think Rodriguez has done enough to earn the title shot at this point, but this is where what I was saying in the intro comes into play. With Rose just not being an active champion, we are left with multiple number one contenders just sort of waiting around. I think Rodriguez can and should just wait for the title shot. Having this long layoff will be perfect for her as she can use all of this time to work on her grappling, which she's going to need regardless of who wins the Rose vs Carla fight that I assume we are getting next. At this point, I don't think it is impossible for Marina to skip the line and immediately get a title shot, especially considering that Dana White didn't seem too high on the idea of giving Carla the title shot to begin with. Carla just beat Rodriguez 2 fights ago, so I don't think they would look to make them fight it out for true number one contender status, but you never know. Since Rodriguez just fought, that would really push Rose's next fight back. The only options beyond that are Zhang Weili and Joanna Jedrzejczyk. These women both present similar issues. While they would both be great stand up battles and are definitely fights I would love to see, I don't think there's any upside to booking them. Both Zhang and Joanna have lost to Rose twice already. If you book them against Rodriguez and they win, you have now effectively eliminated a contender without building a new one. Sure, they could book a 3rd fight with Rose and Weili/Joanna, but is there really any demand for that right now? Of course, Carla could win and throw all of this out the window, but I don't think you can book fights by assuming the result of another. Marina Rodriguez is a fighter that the UFC has been giving a big push to for a reason and I don't see a reason for them to possibly kill all of her momentum just to potentially wind up in a situation with no fresh challenger. Marina is a very fun fighter to watch, so regardless of if she ends up sitting and waiting for the title shot or has to win 1 more, I'll be there to watch. I think the smartest thing for everyone would be told hold her back and save her for the title fight that follows Rose vs Carla.
While Yan Xiaonan didn't win the fight, she definitely fought really well and proved her status as a member of the top 5. She started off really well and won the first round pretty clearly. She was using the speed in her strikes to land counter shots against Rodriguez. She was waiting for Marina to enter and then would out land her once the two were within range. She was even able to get the fight to the ground in the first round, which was somewhere we knew Rodriguez was vulnerable. Unfortunately for her, she was unable to adjust to what Rodriguez started to do in the 2nd and 3rd rounds. She couldn't land her strikes with the volume that she normally does and couldn't get the fight back to the ground. I think she should have been more willing to mix it up and go for takedowns, but that just isn't her usual game plan and she opted to stick with the striking. Of course, in order to get takedowns, she would have needed to clinch with Rodriguez and whenever they got to that position, Rodriguez was punishing her with knees, so maybe that is why the grappling stopped. Xiaonan is still a fantastic fighter and someone who I could see fighting for a belt sometime in the future. Saturday wasn't her night, but this isn't the end for her at all.
There seems to be a couple of options going forward that make sense of Yan. The first of which is Zhang Weili. Weili hasn't fought since her back to back losses against Rose Namajunas and is going to have to look for an opponent to get her back on track. I think this probably represents the best fight that each woman could get. They are both top 5 opponents coming off of a loss, so everything seems to align for them to step in against each other. Similar to what I said with Rodriguez, I think Jedrzejczyk is an option, but it is hard to get a read on what she's really looking for in a fight. She's lost to Rose Namajunas twice and hasn't fought since she lost to Zhang Weili in March of 2020. She doesn't really seem to be interested in just fighting another contender at this stage in her career, so I'm not sure if or when we would see her again because I'm not really sure what type of opponent she wants. The last fight that I think makes some sense would be Nina Nunes. Nunes is the highest ranked opponent left who doesn't already have a fight booked and she is also coming off of a loss. I'm not really sure what kind of schedule she is looking for either as she returned in 2021 after missing all of 2020 due to the birth of her daughter. It is unclear whether or not she actually wants to fight again and when she would be interested in returning. I assume that she wouldn't want to be in a training camp at the same time as her partner Amanda Nunes, but I obviously don't have that information. I am also assuming that a top 5 opponent would be enough to entice her to fight again. I personally would look to make the Weili fight for Xiaonan because I think that is the best possible fight to make not only for her, but for Zhang and the division as a whole. When fights make sense for all 3 parties, they tend to get made, so I think we have a good chance of seeing that one at some point. Mackenzie Dern is booked to fight Tecia Torres next month, so the loser of that fight presents a possible opponent as well. Yan Xiaonan doesn't have a shortage of options, so I wouldn't expect her to have a horribly long lay off. Whoever it is, it will also end up being a pretty good fight.
What do you guys think? What are your takeaways from the fight? Who did you score it for? Did Rodriguez earn the next shot? If not, who should she fight next? What did you think of Yan Xiaonan's performance? Who should she look to rebound against? Leave thoughts and suggestions in the comments. Thanks for reading and have a good one.
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