UFC 272 is upon us and I'm excited for it. Some fans have decided that they don't like this card and like I said in my last post, maybe this isn't the best pay per view that has ever been constructed, there's still quite a few fights that I'm looking forward to watching. We've been pretty good with these picks so far in 2022 and I'm looking to keep that momentum going. At worst, we've been mediocre, at best, we've been really good, especially recently. The PPVs are usually pretty fun to make picks for because most of the fights are 2 well known fighters from the first fight of the card all the way through. Just to be clear, my picks will be in the bolded font, and the real results will be listed next to it in italics after the fight is official. Let's go.
Dustin Jacoby defeats Michal Oleksiejczuk Result: Jacoby by decision (1-0)
We're going to have a good striking battle right from the jump here. These are two high level kick boxers. I do however like Jacoby to get the win in this one. He's a little bigger, longer, and more powerful. He's a little more active in landing strikes and takes a little less damage. I think this is his fight to lose, but he can't take Oleksiejczuk lightly either.
Ludovit Klein defeats Devonte Smith Result: Klein by decision (2-0)
Going out on a little bit of a limb on this one, but I like Klein to pull off the small upset. Devonte Smith fights with a "kill or be killed" style, so this one won't be going the distance. His chin has been cracked a few times and I think Klein can find it. Smith has the speed and natural power, but I like Klein to use his kicks to even the playing field and create openings to find a finish.
Tagir Ulanbekov defeats Tim Elliot Result: Elliot by decision (2-1)
This fight is probably more even than it is getting credit for. Elliot is a long time UFC veteran and very solid in all aspects. Ulanbekov is the younger prospect who probably has the more natural talent. Elliot may be the better grappler, but I think Ulanbekov is the better pure wrestler and would probably be the one in top position. His striking is also pretty solid and he'll have a 4 inch reach advantage. I think this is his fight to lose. The one concern I have is the cardio. Elliot will never get tired, so Ulanbekov will have to be ready to go all night.
Umar Nurmagomedov defeats Brian Kelleher Result: Nurmagomedov by sub (3-1)
Similar to Tim Elliot, Brian Kelleher is a respected UFC veteran. He's scrappy, tough, and can do a little bit of everything. Nurmagomedov can hang in the striking if he has to, but I expect him to be relentless with his takedowns. I think it is possible or maybe even likely that he just overwhelms Kelleher at some point later in the fight and eventually forces the finish.
Mariya Agapova defeats Maryna Moroz Result: Moroz by sub (3-2)
This is an interesting fight. Moroz is the more technical striker of the two, but she's coming off of a 2 year layoff. Agapova is a solid striker in her own right and probably the more powerful of the two. Agapova has the better grappling as well, especially with her ability to finish submissions. Agapova is the more well rounded fighter and given Moroz's time away, I have to lean towards Agapova slightly.
Kennedy Nzechukwu defeats Nicolae Negumereanu Result: Negumereanu by decision (3-3)
We have a striker vs grappler matchup here and I'm going to go with the striker. Negumereanu was known as a wrestler coming into the UFC, but he's struggled to get takedowns so far in his promotional career. Nzechukwu also has pretty good takedown defense and if he can keep it standing, he can get the finish. Both men get hit more than they land on a per minute basis, but Nzechukwu lands a lot more of his own strikes. He also has the power advantage and a significant reach advantage.
Marina Rodriguez defeats Yan Xiaonan Result: Rodriguez by decision (4-3)
This is probably my favorite fight of the entire card. This should be a high level striking battle for the full run time. Xiaonan has a slight volume advantage, but I think Rodriguez is the faster, more powerful, and more technical of the two. If Xiaonan can mix in a takedown, then things get very interesting, but if it stays on the feet, I prefer Rodriguez.
Jalin Turner defeats Jamie Mullarkey Result: Turner by KO (5-3)
This should be a pretty fun fight in its own right. These are two guys who aren't afraid to take some shots to land their own. They both absorb more damage than their coaches would like, but that's just their style. Turner lands with significantly more volume and has a slight edge in power as well. Mullarkey does have a wrestling advantage, but Turner has the takedown defense and submission game to counter. I think Turner finds a way to finish this fight.
Serghei Spivac defeats Greg Hardy Result: Spivac by KO (6-3)
This fight is going to go one of 2 very distinct ways. Either Hardy is going to knock Spivac out in the first 2:30 of the fight or he's going to gas out, get taken down, and finished on the ground. Hardy won't have as big of a size and reach advantage as he is used to and I think Spivac can avoid his big shots on the feet and get to his takedowns. Hardy does have good defense early, but as the fight progresses, his cardio isn't in a good enough spot to maintain that for the entire fight. I think Spivac gets a ground and pound TKO at some point in the second round.
Kevin Holland defeats Alex Oliveira Result: Holland by KO (7-3)
This should be a pretty fun one while it lasts. Both fighters are on losing streaks, but Holland was losing to guys in the top 10 and Oliveira was losing to a lower level of fighter. If this fight stays at range for any period of time, Holland will have an advantage and will find a knockout before too long. He was exposed to need help in the wrestling department and he's been working on it since. Moving down a weight class will only help him as he will have a greater size advantage and be on more equal footing strength wise. Oliveira can get takedowns, but I think Holland will be able to stuff them. Oliveira isn't afraid of a fire fight and I think that will get him finished.
Edson Barboza defeats Bryce Mitchell Result: Mitchell by decision (7-4)
Classic striker vs grappler in this one. Mitchell is going to need takedowns early and often as his striking is still too rudimentary to have any chance to survive against Barboza on the feet. Barboza has decent takedown defense early and I think that will be enough to get him the first round and the early parts of the second. My concern is his tendency to fade as the fight goes on. Mitchell won't fade at all and his wrestling should take over the back half of the contest. I think Barboza uses his reach advantage to keep Mitchell off of him and keeps a slow enough pace early that he can edge out a win if it goes the distance.
Rafael Dos Anjos defeats Renato Moicano Result: Dos Anjos by decision (8-4)
I just have to believe that there is a way that RDA figures this one out. Moicano has a lot of advantages in this one though and he's probably one of the more tempting underdog bets on the card. It is just impossible to know what kind of shape he is in for this fight. The fact that it is a 5 round bout really sways me towards RDA because he has been preparing for 5 rounds this whole time and Moicano took this fight on Monday or Tuesday. If this fight gets finished, Moicano is probably the winner, but I'll take the experience and veteran savvy of the former champion.
Colby Covington defeats Jorge Masvidal Result: Covington by decision (9-4)
As much as I would like to pick Masvidal, I just can't do it in good faith. Colby is the more well rounded of the two and I think he combines that with his cardio advantage to get a decision win. I think this is going to be a way tougher fight than a lot of people are giving it credit for, but the wrestling and cardio of Colby give him the advantage. If Masvidal can force this fight to become only a kick boxing match, then he becomes the favorite, but I don't think he can stuff every single takedown over 5 rounds or bounce right back up without giving up some control time to Colby that he can use to grind out some rounds in his favor.
What do you guys think? Are you riding with me or fading me? Who is your lock of the night? Leave your picks and predictions in the comments. I'll be back after the card or tomorrow morning to update this and calculate my updated record. Thanks for reading, have a good one, and enjoy the fights.
UPDATE:
Honestly, a pretty solid night of picks. We went through a rough stretch in the middle part of the card, but got back on track to finish strong. As someone who defended this card, I have to say that it really didn't feel big at any point during the entire event up until Masvidal's walkout. There was one decently fun stretch from Rodriguez/Xiaonan to Holland/Oliveira, but that was honestly about it. I was really interested in some of these matchups and so many of them just underwhelmed for one reason or another.
As for our losses, part of me thought to take Elliot, but I thought the reach advantage for Ulanbekov would be more of a factor. That was also the best version of Tim Elliot that we've seen in some time, so I don't feel too bad about that one. Losing with Kennedy Nzechukwu was disappointing to say the least. I'm still not sure the judges, commission, and Buffer got the scores correct, but Kennedy didn't deserve to win that fight regardless. The Moroz vs Agapova fight I was just completely wrong on from start to finish. Agapova wasn't as aggressive as she usually was and it was pretty clear from very early on that she wasn't going to be getting her hand raised. There wasn't a fighter I was more disappointed with on this card than Edson Barboza though. That was such a lackluster performance from someone that has a track record of being an extremely high level fighter. I'm not necessarily surprised that he lost, but to lose and offer virtually no resistance beyond a few early low kicks was not really on my radar for this one.
I feel like my own really good winning pick was Ludovit Klein. Other than that, they sort of went how I envisioned, but with little intrigue. It was a good bounce back win for Kevin Holland at a new weight. RDA dominated, but Renato Moicano saw his stock rise after an incredible display of heart and will power. His corner or someone should have stopped that fight before the 5th round, but that has nothing to do with his performance. Rodriguez vs Xiaonan was the fight of the night like I hinted it could have been, but of course that was on the prelims so we could instead see Greg Hardy dominated in a little over 2 minutes. We did get to see his weird reaction to the medical staff when he was on the ground though, so I guess that's something. I honestly feel like Dustin Jacoby should be fighting some higher level opponents. He fought to a draw with Ion Cutelaba, who is now in the rankings, but Jacoby can't get a little closer? Just my opinion though. The main event was fine, but in the immediate aftermath, it feels a little underwhelming to me. I didn't think I would care that there was nothing on the line, but as I sit here less than 20 minutes removed from it, it honestly feels pretty empty. Also, I'm not someone who hates wrestling, grappling, and BJJ, but that 5th round just didn't feel right to me. Of course it is Colby's job to win the fight by any means necessary and I don't blame him at all, but when the fight is billed as this crazy grudge match and in the build up to the fight, both men talk about how they're going to murder each other, to have it end by one out positioning the other just felt a little odd to me. Colby calling out Poirier was interesting too so, maybe something will come of that, but Dustin may be tied up with Nate Diaz, so we'll see on that. I think that's it from me for now. I'll have the reactions to the big fights coming this week.
Event Record: 9-4
Previous Year to Date Record: 48-23
Updated Year to Date Record: 57-27
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