Well, another week of picks and another week of starting this at 2:30 am, so there's that. We had a solid week last week and I'm hoping for at least that again, but I already have a bad feeling about this card. This card has a lot of weird fights that I think can go either way or just don't feel particularly great about any of them. There's a few fights that I know no matter which way I go, I'll get it wrong. There's a few fights that are the Paul Craig fight from last week. Even though picking this card is going to be a challenge, it should be pretty fun to watch, so from that aspect, I really am looking forward to it. This is a bit of a longer one, so let's start. Just to be clear, my picks will be in the bolded font, and the real results will be listed next to it in italics after the fight is official.
Luis Saldana defeats Bruno Souza Result: Saldana by decision (1-0)
This one is probably going to be pretty close, but I'm going to lean towards Saldana. He's a little more active in the striking and I think he has a bit better defense as well. Souza is only in his second UFC fight, so I don't want to put too much stock into it, but he was fairly hittable against Baghdasaryan. Neither fighter has an outstanding gas tank, so that is probably a wash. I think Saldana is the more active striker, gets hit less, and has the reach, that should be enough to edge out a decision in my mind.
Matheus Nicolau defeats David Dvorak Result: Nicolau by decision (2-0)
Another fight and another one I don't feel good about. This one is going to be close as well and I'm just leaning with Nicolau here by an inch. Dvorak strikes with more volume, but Nicolau probably has the better striking defense. On the feet, I think they're of equal skill, but Dvorak is more prepared to go forward and throw strikes with volume than Nicolau. However, Nicolau has more willingness to grapple offensively and does so with decent success. For a fight that seems even using the eye test and is equally even in the stats, I'm going to lean towards the guy who has done those things against the better competition and that is Nicolau, so I'm going with him.
Manon Fiorot defeats Jennifer Maia Result: Fiorot by decision (3-0)
This is a fight that I feel a bit better about, which means I'll probably get it wrong. I think Maia is a good fighter, but this is just a bad matchup for her. Some fans have the impression that Maia is a good grappler because she took down Shevchenko, but that really isn't the case. Maia gets 0.25 takedowns per 15 minutes and lands them at a 33% rate. Maia is a solid technical boxer, but she absorbs more strikes than she lands per minute. I think Fiorot is the more dynamic striker and she throws with more volume while absorbing less. She's also proven to be a better grappler to this point, averaging almost 2 takedowns per 15 minutes and having 100% takedown defense. Maia has the better strength of schedule, but I'm a believer in Fiorot's talent.
Aliaskhab Khizriev defeats Denis Tiuliulin Result: Khizriev by sub (4-0)
This is as close to a lock as can be at this point. Tiuliulin is stepping in on short notice and is just in over his head at this stage. I'm not saying he's horrible, but he just isn't ready for UFC level competition at this point in his career. Khizriev will likely be able to get takedowns whenever he wants and he should be able to find the finish before too long.
Chris Gutierrez defeats Danaa Batgerel Result: Gutierrez by KO (5-0)
This is another one that I don't feel great about. Batgerel has serious power and he'll have the reach advantage here. He also throws with more volume, but he lands strikes at a very low percentage. I think Gutierrez's movement will give him problems. Gutierrez, along with his good striking defense, has good speed in both his hands and kicks. He throws with decent volume too, but he does slow down at times. My main concern with him is that he seems too content to just edge out decisions. He doesn't really look to finish a fight or even really pile on and pull away in rounds. I think his movement and defense will allow him to pick up the win here.
Karol Rosa defeats Sara McMann Result: McMann by decision (5-1)
This fight is going to go one of two very distinct ways. Either McMann is going to wrestle Rosa to death and smother her for 15 minutes or Rosa is going to stuff the takedowns and pick McMann apart on the feet. I'm going to go with the latter. McMann is going to get off to a good start, but she's prone to gassing out and being finished later in fights. She's also over 40 now and is on the back end. I think Rosa's volume striking takes over and she stops the takedowns. If she can't stuff them and can't get back to her feet, it will be a long night for her though.
Neil Magny defeats Max Griffin Result: Magny by decision (6-1)
I'm honestly not sure how this fight got made, but I expect Neil Magny to get the win. I think he is just the better fighter in this case. He doesn't strike with as much volume as Griffin, but he has a nice reach advantage and has the better striking defense. I think Magny has the grappling advantage as well. Griffin does throw more strikes, but he's also a little too hittable for this matchup in my opinion. I don't think it is impossible for Griffin to win, but I think his path is a narrow one.
Marc Diakese defeats Viacheslav Borshchev Result: Diakese by decision (7-1)
This is another one that I have a feeling that I'm going to regret. I think Diakese is slightly more skilled all around, but he is very inconsistent. On the other hand, Slava is very talented, but he's incredibly raw. He throws strikes with good volume and power. He's a decent all around boxer, but the other areas of his game are unrefined. He also gets hit quite a bit. If Diakese came out and decided to wrestle for the entire fight, I think he could win without a ton of resistance, but I don't know if he has the cardio to do so. He'll have a decent reach advantage and has a massive edge in experience. I just like his all around skills a little better here.
Aleksei Oleinik defeats Ilir Latifi Result: Cancelled, Litifi pulled out with non-covid illness
This fight just isn't going to be a normal one. I just don't really know how this one ends even in the slightest. Latifi is going to try to wrestle I think, which will put Oleinik where he wants to be. Oleinik is still a dangerous submission threat, but I do think Latifi is probably good enough to avoid most of those submissions. However, it is possible Latifi is scared off and opts to stand. In that case, as weird as it sounds, I prefer Oleinik. If nothing else, Oleinik is willing to throw strikes with decent volume and pretty solid power. He's going to have a 7 inch reach advantage too. I don't know. I think Oleinik has more paths to victory I think and I'll lean his way I suppose.
Kai Kara-France defeats Askar Askarov Result: Kara-France by decision (8-1)
I'm taking a chance with this one, but I'm going to trust Kai's defensive grappling. I did a full preview on this one, so if you didn't read that, check it out for more details. I think Kara-France will be able to keep it standing and then be able to take advantage of Askarov in the striking. I don't know if he can find the finish, but I think he can out do Askarov with volume striking. I'm going out on a limb here, but I think he has a real chance.
Bryan Barberena defeats Matt Brown Result: Barberena by decision (9-1)
This should be a fun one. It seems likely that these two will opt to stand and bang this one out. Brown could win this one on grappling potentially, but I don't know that he will opt to use it and even if he does, I like Barberena's get ups. In the striking, I like Barberena's volume to stand out. Brown just isn't active enough and he's shown an ability to lose on points in the striking at times. He also isn't the most durable fighter and he's getting older now. I think Barberena finds a way to get this one done. One thing to note is that Barberena does get hit more than one would like, I don't think Brown strikes with the volume to really take advantage of it.
Alexa Grasso defeats Joanne Wood Result: Grasso by sub (10-1)
This should be an interesting fight. Wood is going to throw with more volume, but I think Grasso is the better technical boxer and has a little more pop on her shots. Wood may have a grappling advantage, but I don't think it is enough that it will sway the fight in either way. Even if Wood lands more strikes, I think Grasso can land with good volume and can land shots that look more impactful. She looked great against Macey Barber and I think she carries that momentum through another win.
Curtis Blaydes defeats Chris Daukaus Result: Blaydes by KO (11-1)
This is another one that I did a full preview for, so check that out. I think Blaydes wrestling is just going to be too much for Daukaus here. I think Blaydes is just a better athlete with better cardio. Unless Daukaus has a great gas tank that we don't know about or BJJ skills off his back, then I think he's basically just relying on a knockout. It isn't impossible, but Blaydes largely has a better chin than most people will give him credit for. Blaydes can either grind out a decision or he can look to finish this fight with ground and pound later in the fight.
Well, there's the picks. Leave yours in the comments. Let me know your thoughts on the card and who you like and who you're fading. Leave your thoughts below and let me know what you're thinking. I'll be back after the card to update this and my overall record. It is 4 am and I'm going to bed. Have a good one. Thanks for reading. Enjoy the fights.
UPDATE:
Wow, so how about that. Best I've ever done since I started doing these posts and this really wasn't the card I was expecting it on. So many of these fights felt so close and there were multiple split decisions that all went our way.
As for our only loss of the night, I said it right in the section that we were going to get 1 of 2 results and we unfortunately didn't get the one I went with. Rosa was able to come on late like I thought, but she didn't provide enough resistance early to tire McMann out to be able to win multiple rounds. It is a really nice win for McMann though and she should be getting an interesting fight next time out.
We did get a lot of wins that actually make me look kind of smart, so I'll take it. Saldana looked decent early and then did just enough late, but he has to get the cardio situation in a better place. Nicolau is a talented fighter, but he's going to have to pick up his pace if he wants to rise much higher in the rankings. I don't know if his striking is so slowly paced because he's just waiting for the perfect opening or if his cardio can't handle a higher pace. He has great skills, but he can't win higher level fights, especially at flyweight, being so inactive with his offense. Manon Fiorot finally met some resistance with Jennifer Maia, but she still looked really good and with the state of that division, she may be getting a title shot whenever she fights next. Khizriev largely did what we though, but shoutout to Tiuliulin because he actually provided some resistance, more than most thought he would and more than most would have in his situation. Chris Gutierrez largely did his thing and took some heavy shots on the ground in the last 30 or so seconds of the first round, but other than that brief time frame, he was controlling the fight. I wasn't expecting a devastating knockout from him, but that was one of the highlights of the night. Max Griffin performed better than I expected, but Neil Magny is such a tough fight. He did what he does so well and shoutout to him for tying GSP's record. That is an incredible accomplishment and I felt so good for him during his interview. Marc Diakese looked pretty good too. He used my advice and wrestled and his cardio even looked great, which was a little surprising. We even pulled off the Kai Kara-France upset and that is when I knew it was just my night. I feel great for Kai and he should most certainly hold out for the title shot, whether that comes after Figueiredo vs Moreno 4 or not. Brown vs Barberena was an awesome fight, definitely the fight of the night, even ahead of Askarov and Kara-France. It was a great performance for both and the decision could've gone either way. I guess Barberena got it with that last flurry in round 3. Alexa Grasso was fantastic. We know her boxing is top notch, but if she's going to be able to handle herself on the ground and maybe even find some submissions every once in awhile, she could rise up this division even faster than I thought. Finally, Curtis Blaydes came out to prove a point and he did so dramatically. He never shot for a takedown and dropped Daukaus with a huge right hand early in the second round. It was really a statement win for him and probably has the fans as behind him as they've ever been. He's inserted himself directly into the interim title conversation that is extremely wide open with no fewer than 6 fighters deep right now. Despite not having a ton of finishes, that was a pretty fun night of fights. Next week is off, but we'll be back in 2 weeks with Volkanovski vs The Korean Zombie.
Weekly Record: 11-1
Previous Year to Date Record: 75-35
Updated Year to Date Record: 86-36
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