If you guys read my preview for Tom Aspinall vs Alexander Volkov then you know I'm writing this at 3 am, so I don't have time to mess around. I've been doing well with these picks, but this card is honestly kind of difficult for me to pick for some reason. If I have a terrible week, I'm blaming it on exhaustion. Just to be clear, my picks will be in the bolded font, and the real results will be listed next to it in italics after the fight is official. Let's do it.
Muhammad Mokaev defeats Cody Durden Result: Mokaev by sub (1-0)
Mokaev is one of the most talked about prospects who has yet to debut and for good reason. He has shown a lot of skills that make a lot of people look at him as a future contender. However, he still has a lot of growing to do and all of the video we have is against very limited competition. Durden is a good intro to the UFC. He's a solid wrestler and has skills that may be able to give Mokaev problems. However, I think Durden takes too much damage on the feet and has too questionable of a gas tank for me to want to rely on him. I'm going with Mokaev here.
Cory McKenna defeats Elise Reed Result: Reed by decision (1-1)
This one is my lock of the night. Reed stepped in on short notice for her UFC debut against Sijara Eubanks and got overwhelmed, which isn't a surprise as that is a really tough debut fight. Unfortunately for her, I think she has another really tough match up in this one. Frankly, I think McKenna is better in both facets of the fight. Reed is definitely a better striker than grappler, so I think the best route for McKenna is to wrestle her way to a win. However, if it stays standing, I think she can win it there too.
Jack Shore defeats Timur Valiev Result: Shore by decision (2-1)
I'm surprised Shore is the underdog here and I like him quite a bit. Valiev will have a slight advantage in the striking, but I don't think it is by miles. Shore avoids damage fairly well and he'll have a 4 inch reach advantage. They both strike with good volume, but I like Shore's power. His advantage here will be his wrestling. I think he can get Valiev to the ground and control him there. If not, I expect that he will be able to control him in the clinch. I lean Shore, but wouldn't be completely shocked if Valiev found a way.
Nikita Krylov defeats Paul Craig Result: Craig by sub (2-2)
No matter who I pick in this fight, I'm going to get it wrong. In theory, Krylov should win, so I have to go with him here. He's the better striker and I think he may also be the better pure wrestler. If this fight stays on the feet, Krylov should be able to use his jab and kicks to win on points. However, Paul Craig has a way of finding submissions and winning fights that he shouldn't win and part of me expects that to happen here. However, that is really his only path the victory, so I do have to go with Krylov.
Sergei Pavlovich defeats Shamil Abdurakhimov Result: Pavlovich by KO (3-2)
To be honest, I think Shamil is the better fighter here skill for skill, I just can't trust his chin. Pavlovich has massive power and he throws his strikes with good volume. He gets hit a lot, but I think he finds the knockout in this one. He has a massive 8 inch reach advantage that I think he can use to find Shamil's chin. Shamil doesn't throw his strikes with enough volume to make up for it if he finds himself getting hurt, if he's able to survive the round. I don't think his wrestling is good enough to completely neutralize the striking either.
Mike Grundy defeats Makwan Amirkhani Result: Amirkhani by sub (3-3)
This is a weird fight and I expect it will be weird in the way it plays out. Neither is a particularly great striker and they absorb more strikes than they land. I think Grundy is a little more willing to fight and throws with more power and that may be enough. In the wrestling, Amrikhani hits more takedowns and with a greater success rate. He also attempts more submissions. Neither defends takedowns super well either. However, I just don't really trust his gas tank in this one and think Grundy's willingness to scrap will allow him to edge out a win.
Ilia Topuria defeats Jai Herbert Result: Topuria by KO (4-3)
This should be an interesting fight. Herbert is a long and powerful striker who will have a huge reach advantage. Topuria isn't a poor striker and has legitimate power of his own, but his path to victory is in the wrestling. He is a really good grappler both in the top control game and in submission attempts. Herbert doesn't defend takedowns very well and it is really a matter of time before he finds himself on the mat. Once he's down there, I think it is only a matter of time before he's submitted. If he can keep it standing, he has the advantage, but I just see Topruia taking him down whenever he wants.
Molly McCann defeats Luana Carolina Result: McCann by KO (5-3)
This should be a fun one. Molly McCann is going to turn everything into a true fight and that is where she thrives. She does absorb quite a few strikes, but she lands hers with even greater volume. Carolina will have a big reach advantage and takes less damage on the feet, but I don't think she'll be able to deal with McCann's volume. I expect Molly to have the advantage in the wrestling in this one as well. I think she can take Carolina down and win minutes with top control if she chooses. I expect this fight to be pretty close, but I think McCann edges out a win.
Gunnar Nelson defeats Takashi Sato Result: Nelson by decision (6-3)
Sato is the better striker here and he has legitimate power, but I'm going with Nelson. He's been away for over 2 years, but I think this is a good matchup for him. Sato has pretty solid takedown defense, but I think Gunnar's grappling will be too much. Once Sato is on the ground, he's very susceptible to the submission. That is Gunnar's strength and I think he finds that submission late in the first or early in the second.
Paddy Pimblett defeats Kazula Vargas Result: Pimblett by sub (7-3)
I think Paddy is a tad overrated. He was on wobbly legs in his debut and I think he has a lot of questions to answer. However, I like this matchup for him. He should be able to grapple his way to a win here if he so chooses. If he decides to try and find the knockout in the standup again, he's putting himself at risk. Vargas strikes with decent volume and hasn't absorbed a ton of strikes, but I just think Paddy is more talented. If Paddy takes the path of least resistance, then he should get the win here.
Dan Hooker defeats Arnold Allen Result: Allen by KO (7-4)
I did a full preview on this one so I'll keep it brief. I think Hooker has the striking advantage here. Allen is more technically sound, but I think Hooker is better in terms of consistently striking to win rounds. He's bigger, longer, and throws with significantly more volume. I think his kicks will allow him to keep range and his takedown defense is good enough to keep it standing. I don't think Allen can take him down at will, so unless he lands one huge strike to hurt Hooker, I don't see him winning a decision. I'll lean Hooker here.
Tom Aspinall defeats Alexander Volkov Result: Aspinall by sub (8-4)
I also did a full preview for this one. I like Aspinall's explosiveness and athletic ability here. I think he can look for a finish early, but if not, I like his grappling quite a bit. I'm not claiming that he's at Curtis Blaydes's level, but he's really good. Volkov has improved takedown defense, but I think Aspinall is physical enough to get past it. I think Aspinall will be both willing and able to consistently close the distance and make Volkov uncomfortable. I think he can get the win and set himself up for huge fights going forward.
Whad do you guys think? Leave your picks below. Let me know if you're riding with me or if you're fading me. Who's your lock of the night? Thanks for reading and enjoy the fights. As always, I'll be back after the card to update the results and tabulate my up to date record. I'm excited for this card and need to get to bed. Have a good one.
UPDATE:
All in all, it was a pretty solid day. We got off to a bumpy start, but the main card got us on track for a decent day overall. Having a good day of picks while having an amazing card to watch is about all you can ask for. I wish more Fight Nights had a sense of urgency and meaning like that, but the cards just aren't deep enough to create intrigue from start to finish most weekends.
As for our losses, I really can't complain too much. I'm not sure why Cory McKenna opted to just stand with Elise Reed despite it being pretty clear from the jump that Reed was going to have the striking, speed, and power advantage. She could have grappled her way to a potential win, but she opted not to try for that. I knew I should have picked Paul Craig, but I did the thing again where I pick with my head over my heart. I did the same thing when I picked Jimmy Crute over Jamahal Hill and it hurt me there too. Those were the 2 that were a bit frustrating. Losing Grundy wasn't as big of a deal because I knew that fight could go either way. It was a close fight and both guys had similar styles, but it just didn't go our way this time. Coming into the week, I was leaning with Allen over Hooker, but writing my preview actually convinced me otherwise. I liked what I saw from Allen a lot, so I'll get into that when I write my fallout post on the fight later in the week.
When it comes to the wins, some of them played out sort of how we thought. Mokaev seemed like the more talented fighter against Cody Durden and that showed. I'm interested to see who they give him next. Jack Shore vs Timur Valiev was really close as we expected and Shore was able to just edge out the decision there. Pavlovich did get the knockout like we expected he would. Topuria was in deep trouble in the first round, but he bounced back to knock out Jai Herbert in devastating fashion. Speaking of devastating knockouts, Molly McCann finished Luana Carolina with a vicious spinning elbow. Gunnar Nelson returned and he looked like we expected him to by controlling the fight on the ground. Paddy was also able to grapple his way to a win like we predicted. Tom Aspinall won, but in much easier fashion than I anticipated.
It was a great night of fights, easily the best of the year in my opinion. We got some of the best performances to go with it. I wish every week could be like that, but we'll be back in the apex for most Fight Nights still. Next week is in Ohio though, so maybe we'll have another fun crowd.
Weekly Record: 8-4
Previous Year to Date Record: 67-31
Updated Year to Date Record: 75-35
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