This will be coming out right up against the deadline so, sorry about that up front. If anyone is in the north east, shoveling the snow this morning threw off the normal schedule of when I do these so, it will be a little late. Anyways, this is actually a pretty good card that I am looking forward to quite a bit. There's a lot of pretty fun matchups that should provide an interesting afternoon of competition. If you're a better, a lot of these fights are lined pretty closely, so even if every fight isn't extremely high level, they should be close, competitive, fun, or some combination of those. Just to be clear, my picks will be in the bolded font, and the real results will be listed next to it in italics after the fight is official. I don't have time to screw around. Let's go.
Tafon Nchukwi defeats Azamat Murzakanov Result: Murzakanov by KO (0-1)
Should be an interesting one off the bat. Murzakanov has shown some intriguing skills against lower level competition that results in him finishing a lot of fights very quickly. I don't really know how his skills translate over 15 minutes against higher level fighters. Murzakanov will be looking for takedowns. Nchukwi is powerful and throws his strikes with solid volume, especially in the clinch. He's proven to be able to take a shot too. I think he will survive an early onslaught and come away with the win later in the fight. If Murzakanov can get his takedowns easily, it will be a long day for Nchukwi though, but I think he can stop them.
Guido Cannetti defeats Kris Moutinho Result: Cannetti by KO (1-1)
This is a fight that could really go either way. Both fighters have had their chins cracked at times in their career, so keep that in mind. We saw Moutinho go forward against Sean O'Malley, but not really much beyond that. I expect that he will use that same forward pressure against Cannetti and he should have a little more success. While Cannetti isn't the best fighter in the world, he does present a somewhat well rounded skill set. I think he can mix the striking and grappling enough to find the win here.
Cody Brundage defeats Dalcha Lungiambula Result: Brundage by sub (2-1)
Another fight that I don't feel all that great about. It is a weird matchup. Lungiambula is huge and has the power, but he is so inactive in the striking. He absorbs more strikes than he lands on a per minute basis. Brundage isn't horribly active either, but he does have a positive differential. Lungiambula likes to use judo style takedowns, but I think Brundage may be the better freestyle wrestler. If Brundage can stay off the bottom and not get clipped with one big shot, I think this is his fight.
Miranda Maverick defeats Sabina Mazo Result: Maverick by sub (3-1)
We have a striker vs grappler matchup here and I think I have to go with the grappler. This fight may be a little closer than the line suggests as Mazo is a pretty good kick boxer. She throws and lands strikes at a good volume, but I think Maverick will be able to get to her takedowns and control her way to a victory. Maverick isn't completely lost on the feet either, so I think she can handle herself for as long as it stays standing.
Damon Jackson defeats Kamuela Kirk Result: Jackson by sub (4-1)
We have another striker vs grappler fight here and I am again going with the grappler. Jackson isn't a great striker and takes more strikes than he lands, but he's shown an ability to take some damage. He uses a high pressure and grappling style to smother his opponents and even if he can't get the takedown, he will be able to control the clinch. Kirk is the striker here and while he will have the advantage there, he also takes more strikes than he lands. I think Jackson will be able to keep the pressure on and grapple his way to victory in this one.
Javid Basharat defeats Trevin Jones Result: Basharat by decision (5-1)
This is a bit of a weird one. Both guys have shown some ability and willingness to grapple at times, but not enough that I can say one will be both willing and able to take advantage of any edge the have. If the fight stays on the feet, I have to give Basharat the advantage. They both have decent power, but Basharat lands significantly more strikes. Jones just doesn't throw with the volume to be able to out point a decision win. Basharat also does a better job of avoiding damage, where Jones can be hit a little more frequently.
JJ Aldrich defeats Gillian Robertson Result: Aldrich by decision (6-1)
This might be a weird fight as well. With most Gillian Roberts fights, she is going to be relying on her grappling and submission game. She is very dangerous on the ground, but it has led her to be on her back for long stretches at times. Aldrich is a solid grappler in her own right and I think can keep herself off the bottom. If it stays on the feet, Aldrich isn't the most amazing striker in the world, but she's willing to scrap a little more than Robertson. This means she'll take more damage, but she throws more strikes as well. I think that higher striking volume paired with Robertson's slower paced striking will allow her to get a decision win.
Matthew Semelsberger defeats AJ Fletcher Result: Semelsberger by decision (7-1)
Fletcher will be looking to take this to the ground early and often. He's had success with that in his career, but not against UFC level competition. Semelsberger doesn't have an amazing resume by any means, but he does have 100% takedown defense. On the feet, he's looking to turn it into a brawl and he's had the power to put his opponent down first for most of his career. I think if he can fend off the early takedown attempts, then he will be able to find the win on the feet.
Alex Pereira defeats Bruno Silva Result: Pereira by decision (8-1)
This one should be fun while it lasts. It doesn't seem like Silva is going to be shooting for any takedowns, which would probably be a good idea. If left on the feet, I have to go with Pereira. We all know his history as a kick boxer and he's extremely explosive. He will also have a noticeable reach advantage, so if he can manage the range, this should be his fight to lose. If Silva can clinch and put the pressure on him, he'll have a chance though. I don't expect this fight to make it out of the second round unless Silva opts to grapple.
Terrance McKinney defeats Drew Dober Result: Dober by KO (8-2)
This should be a fun fight as well. McKinney is making a huge jump up, but I think he can handle it. Dober has had problems with grapplers in the past and that is McKinney's background. On the feet, Dober throws with huge power and can absorb almost anything his opponent can throw back. We don't know much about McKinney's cardio, so if forced into the deeper waters, I think Dober may be able to find a knockout, but he will be susceptible to the submission, especially while McKinney is fresh.
Karl Roberson defeats Khalil Rountree Jr. Result: Rountree by KO (8-3)
This fight is pretty even, but I have to go with Roberson because I think he is just a little more well rounded. Roundtree is a little more active on the feet, but he also absorbs more strikes. Roberson doesn't land as much, but his defense is better. Roberson also has the better grappling, so I just feel like he has more ways to win.
Alex Cacares defeats Sodiq Yusuff Result: Yusuff by decision (8-4)
Going against the grain a bit here, but I like how this fight matches up for Cacares. He's the longer fighter who uses good movement and straight punches to land with solid volume. Yusuff throws with more volume, but he throws wild shots at times, which I think Cacares will intercept with his quicker straight punches. Yusuff has had a shaky chin at times, so I'm not sure how many clean shots he will be able to take. Yusuff does have really good power and Caceres doesn't have the Max Holloway chin, so he could definitely find a finish, but I think Cacares will be able to out land Yusuff and win a decision. I think Cacares also has the better grappling if he decides to use it.
Song Yadong defeats Marlon Moraes Result: Yadong by KO (9-4)
This just feels like two guys trending in opposite directions. I don't expect to see a ton of grappling in this one and that will leave Moraes to strike and his chin just hasn't held up recently. I think Yadong is just a better striker at this stage of their careers. He throws with more volume and has the better striking defense right now. Moraes has taken too much damage of late and we saw him gas out after trying to finish Merab Dvalishvili last time out. He still has power and speed in his hands, so I'm not ruling him out entirely, but I do expect Yadong to get the win.
Magomed Ankalaev defeats Thiago Santos Result: Ankalaev by decision (10-4)
Thiago Santos isn't as bad as some fans may lead you to believe, but this isn't a good matchup for him. Ankalaev has a better feel for technical striking and has the grappling advantage. Both men have really good power, so the fight could end at any moment, but if it does go the distance, I think that is almost a guaranteed win for Ankalaev. I think Santos has his best chance to win if he comes out and puts the pressure on early. He has a chance to out volume Ankalaev, who doesn't throw strikes in bunches often, but he's really going to have to push for it. If he stays patient and is content to fight a slow paced, technical battle, that is going to favor Ankalaev significantly.
That is finally it. Leave your picks in the comments. Let me know where I'm right and wrong. Who is your lock of the night? Enjoy the fights, thanks for reading, have a good night. I'll be here to update this with the results either later tonight or tomorrow morning.
UPDATE:
Overall, that card was pretty fun and we did pretty well again. Of course, the curse of the main card is a real thing. I don't know how or why I can pick the prelims so well and then struggle on the main card every week, but maybe we'll figure it out one of these days. It isn't even like I have personal biases for or against any of these fighters so I really don't know if I just overthink the main card fights or what.
Anyways, as for our losses, I can't complain too much. To lose the Nchukwi fight after he had done so well hurts though. It was at worst 19-19 going into the 3rd with Nchukwi being the noticeably fresher fighter. He had probably won the first 2 rounds but he ducked right into the step in knee and got put out. Great shot from Murzakanov, but he'll have to get his cardio up in order to push farther at this level. I thought Terrance McKinney had initially pulled off the upset, but Drew Dober is a very tough guy and after they got back to the feet, I had a feeling McKinney was in trouble. He started throwing some spinning kicks and I took that as a sign that he gassed himself out and I think that may have been the case. After he got dropped, he didn't seem like he had the ability to really try and get out of that position. Taking that knee obviously effected things as well, but that big shot combined with him emptying the tank is what did him in. In a fight that was perceived as being almost even, Khalil Rountree looked really good. His strikes were crisp and powerful. I hope he has a quicker turnaround because I'm very interested to see him again and where he can go from here. Our last loss this week was Alex Cacares and he just couldn't continue his momentum. He looked solid early, but the leg kicks from Yusuff really did him in. As someone who is a fan of Sodiq Yusuff, it was a really good sign to see him bounce back so well. He was much more measured and in control than he's been at times and it looks like he's responded well after the loss to Arnold Allen.
We did have a few good wins. We cashed the underdog in Cannetti after he got the huge standing TKO against Kris Moutinho. We got another underdog and a comeback win when Brundage got the submission over Lungiambula. The Aldrich/Robertson fight had pretty even odds, so that was a good one to come away with. Other than that there wasn't any crazy or unexpected wins, but there was so many really nice finishes. Also, Bruno Silva really held his own against Pereira in what was largely a standup fight.
Weekly Record: 10-4
Previous Year to Date Record: 57-27
New Year to Date Record: 67-31
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