It has been awhile since I did one of these, but I'm excited to get back into it. UFC 273, on paper, projects to be one of the best cards of the year so far. We have the return of Khamzat Chimaev and his biggest test to date. We will be getting the end to a two year long feud between Aljamain Sterling and Petr Yan in the bantamweight division. The main event will see Alexander Volkanovski try to take another step towards potentially being the pound for pound best fighter in the UFC, while Chan Sung Jung looks to pull of the upset. After a week off, I'm just excited to be back in a fight week, but this card really makes it worth it. Just to be clear, my picks will be in the bolded font, and the real results will be listed next to it in italics after the fight is official. Blaydes vs Daukaus feels like it was forever ago and maybe it is just because I've had a long and rough two weeks, but I can't wait for tonight. Let's go.
Julio Arce defeats Daniel Santos Result: Arce by decision (1-0)
Arce is the veteran here taking on Santos in his UFC debut. Santos is a solid prospect and has shown solid skills on the feet. He likes to come forward and throws with good power. Arce has been a little up and down during his UFC tenure, but his strength of schedule stands out. He's also a good striker who throws with good volume and is able to limit damage fairly well. I'm going to go with Arce as we've seen him against legitimate competition like Song Yadong, Andre Ewell, and Hakeem Dawodu. I think he'll be able to use his experience with high level competition to his advantage.
Kay Hansen defeats Piera Rodriguez Result: Rodriguez by decision (1-1)
This might end up being a striker vs grappler type of fight. Rodriguez is primarily a boxer and she's pretty good at it. She throws good combinations and has shown good power, which isn't typical for women's strawweight. Hansen is much more of the grappler and brings high level BJJ skills to the table. She's on a bit of a cold streak, but I think she turns it around here. I think Hansen can get to her takedowns and after the fight is down, she should be able to control from the top without too much issue if she chooses to. She gets over aggressive at times going for submissions and can give up position, but I'm not sure Rodriguez can take advantage in the way other opponents have. If the fight stays on the feet, I think Rodriguez has the advantage, but I don't think it is as significant as some are suggesting. Hansen is a way better striker than Rodriguez is a grappler and I think she'll find the win.
Jared Vanderaa defeats Aleksei Oleinik Result: Oleinik by sub (1-2)
I don't think I've ever felt good when picking an Oleinik fight and that isn't going to start here. Vanderaa has struggled with wrestlers so far and while Romanov and Spivac are better wrestlers than Oleinik, I'm still not sure he can stay off the ground. Apparently Vanderaa is a BJJ black belt, but we haven't really seen any of those skills from him yet. If the fight stays standing, I think Vanderaa will be able to find the victory. He's a more technical striker who will be able to throw with more volume for longer. Oleinik doesn't have the best cardio at this point in his career, so as long as Vanderaa doesn't get submitted early, I think he will be able to outlast Oleinik. Oleinik's chin has faded as he's aged as well, so I wouldn't be surprised if Vanderaa can find the finish late if it gets there. Oleinik is live early though, especially if he can get the fight to the ground.
Mike Malott defeats Mickey Gall Results: Malott by KO (2-2)
This is a bit of a weird fight. Gall still has the reputation of a young, up and comer even though that is not really the case anymore. He is weirdly reliant on the rear naked choke. If he doesn't get to the back, he probably isn't going to get the win. Malott is a little more well rounded. He is hittable, but he will also throw strikes with a decent amount of volume. Gall gets hit, but is less willing to throw his own strikes back. I could honestly see this going either way as it is hard to trust either fighter fully, but I think Malott's well rounded skillset will get him a win in this one. Gall also doesn't get takedowns at a great rate for someone who is so reliant on submissions, so I think Malott keeps it standing and can win a striking battle if he chooses to do so.
Raquel Pennington defeats Aspen Ladd Result: Pennington by decision (3-2)
This is a pretty important fight to be taking place this early on the card, but I think that has a lot to do with Ladd's last performance. Ladd successfully made weight, which is a huge hurdle for her. She's returning to bantamweight after her last fight was at featherweight and it was a disappointing performance. She really couldn't get her offense going and struggled to pull the trigger. I think she does have legitimate skills, but I can't pick her after what we saw last time. Her path to victory in this fight and most fights is to get the fight down and dominate from the top. Pennington has solid takedown defense and if Ladd isn't going to really shoot for any like last time, I think she'll be able to win the fight on the feet. Pennington is the superior striker both offensively and defensively and I think she'll be able to get the win here, probably by decision.
Josh Fremd defeats Anthony Hernandez Result: Hernandez by decision (3-3)
For full transparency, I have a mutual friend with Josh Fremd, so maybe I'm a bit biased. However, I think he has a real shot here and that he pulls it off. Both Fremd and Hernandez are willing to stand and trade on the feet. Hernandez will strike with good volume, but he also absorbs a lot of damage. Fremd is a huge middleweight and has power in his own right. He uses his knees very well in the clinch too so that is something to look for. Both fighters will give their opponent a chance to finish them, I think it is just a matter of who finds the mark first. I think Hernandez would have a grappling advantage, but I'm not sure if it is worth the energy to try to get the takedowns. This should be a fun one while it lasts.
Ian Garry defeats Darian Weeks Result: Garry by decision (4-3)
This should be an interesting fight as well. Garry has all the hype and for good reason. He's inexperienced, but he's shown some skills in all facets. He's long and has the power advantage in this one. Weeks will be looking to strike as well and he'll probably be able to throw with more volume. Both guys have shown themselves to be a tad hittable, but I think that will allow Garry to land one of his huge power shots and find the finish.
Vinc Pichel defeats Mark Madsen Result: Madsen by decision (4-4)
This fight is so even. Madsen is an Olympic silver medalist in wrestling and Pichel only has 25% takedown defense. You would think that would be the end of that, but Madsen's cardio may be a real problem. He often starts to slow down near the midpoint of the fight and that is when Pichel will be able to take over. Pichel is a good striker and will have the cardio to push for the full fight. He's also not afraid to bite down on the mouth piece when he has to. While he doesn't defend takedowns particularly well, he has both the cardio and technique to get back to his feet as many times as necessary. I think he weathers the storm early and then is able to win the fight late.
Tecia Torres defeats MacKenzie Dern Result: Dern by decision (4-5)
This is about as "striker vs grappler" as a fight can get. Dern has improved her striking quite a bit since she came over to MMA, but make no mistake, she needs this fight on the ground. If she can get even one takedown, her BJJ is so good that she'll likely find the submission. However, her wrestling just hasn't been good enough to get the higher level fighters down and she only finishes 10% of her takedowns. Torres doesn't have fantastic takedown defense, but she's proficient there. When the fight is taking place in the striking realm, she'll have both the technical advantage and speed advantage. She'll probably have the cardio and volume advantage as well. As long as she doesn't hit the ground, this is her fight to win.
Gilbert Burns defats Khamzat Chimaev Result: Chimaev by decision (4-6)
There are just too many unknowns for me to be able to go with Khamzat in this one. Burns has the BJJ advantage and I can't imagine Khamzat is a better striker. We've never even seen Chimaev get hit before, so I just have to go with Burns out of principle. Burns has great submissions that even scared off Kamaru Usman and had the power to put Usman on wobbly legs. It wouldn't surprise me if Khamzat smashes him, but I don't have the confidence with so many unknowns with Khamzat.
Petr Yan defeats Aljamain Sterling Result: Sterling by decision (4-7)
I think Aljo has a much better chance than some people are giving him credit for, but I do like Yan to get the win in this one. Sterling couldn't get his takedowns going early last time and if he can't this time, it will only be a matter of time. Yan will be able to come on late and I think he could find the finish in the championship rounds. If Aljo is going to pull of the upset, he's going to have to do it early or at least bank the early rounds. He could do what he did to Sandhagen, but I don't think that is particularly likely.
Alexander Volkanovski defeats The Korean Zombie Result: Volkanovski by KO (5-7)
I think the odds for Volkanovski have gotten a bit out of control, but I understand why. Volkanovski is that good and I would be pretty surprised if he doesn't get the win. Zombie will be dangerous, especially early and is capable of finding the finish, but I don't think that is likely either. Volk will use his leg kicks early and has a chance to push the pace and finish the fight late.
Those are my picks for today's card. What do you guys think? Who are you riding with and who are you fading? Leave your picks and predictions in the comments. I'll be back after the event to update this and have my updated record. Thanks for reading, enjoy the card, and have a good day.
UPDATE:
What a great nice of fights. The card really lived up to the hype and it was good to have MMA back in our life after basically every major organization took last week off. Unfortunately, it didn't lend itself to success for these picks, but we were probably due for a poor weak. I'm not sure how, but my dad picked this card perfectly, 12-0 and he really doesn't even know most of the prelim fighters so. Let's talk about these for a minute.
For our wins, we start Julio Arce. He looked good and I thought that is what we would see when he took that step down in competition compared to the killers he had been fighting. Malott was a lot of fun as well. We saw him jump the guillotine in his contender series fight, but this one was all striking. He showed a good chin and good power as he folded Mickey Gall. I look forward to seeing him fight again. Raquel Pennington did largely what we thought she would. She had to keep it standing and then use her boxing and she was able to win a clear decision. Unfortunately, she said she thought her hand was broken, so she may not return for awhile, but she's in line for a big fight when she does. Ian Garry was able to do enough to get the win, but not much beyond that. He still has a lot of growing to do and I think once he reaches another level of opponent, he's going to have to find a way to increase his volume. My final win was Volkanovski and that fight was really not competitive for even a second. As usual, I'll be doing a full post on it, so I won't dive too deeply here.
For the losses, Piera Rodriguez was able to handle herself on the ground much better than I anticipated. That is what got her the win and she looks to have potential as her striking was definitely an advantage for her. I should have known Oleinik would find a way to get a win. I picked him when his opponent was Latifi, but not here. If we're being honest, I don't think Vanderaa is actually a black belt, but Oleinik is just one of those guys who finds was to get submissions that don't work for many other fighters. I love watching him fight and look forward to the next one. I said that I thought Hernandez could grapple his way to a win, but I didn't expect him to actually do it. Well, he did exactly that and his cardio looked great in doing so. It was a good win for him, but also a good showing for Fremd. To be able to push that hard on short notice stood out and I think he'll definitely get at least one more UFC fight. Mark Madsen largely controlled that fight and his cardio was able to hold up much better than it had in the past. That was the key as he was able to continue to get Pichel down and keep him down. MacKenzie Dern was able to win a decision, which I didn't really anticipate. Torres looked good early, but Dern grabbed onto a submission in the second and then edged out a close third round. I'm not sure what changed for Torres, but she didn't seem like herself in that third. It is possible the kimura damaged her arm more than she let on, but it was a good win for Dern after the community was a little down on her after the loss to Marina Rodriguez. Khamzat was able to beat Burns and picking against him wasn't the smartest, but Burns was in that fight until the end. We got a lot of questions answered and that will get its own post so I'll leave it at that. The final loss was Petr Yan and Aljo was able to execute his plan much better this time. He managed his cardio better and banked the first three rounds. Of course, the key was getting his takedowns and having all of that ground control time. I thought that fight was scored correctly, so I don't know what Dana was complaining about. How anyone thought Yan won the first by landing 13 total strikes is beyond me.
Anyways, that's it for now. I'll have the full posts for the last 3 fights and then probably the one where I write briefly about some others all week before we talk about Belal vs Luque. Below will be the updated record. Hope you enjoyed the card and thanks for reading this far.
Weekly Record: 5-7
Previous Year to Date Record: 86-36
Updated Year to Date Record: 91-43
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