The main event of Saturday's UFC Vegas 52 card didn't last particularly long, but it was kind of fun while it lasted. I mentioned in my update to my picks that after the way the card started I struggled to get emotionally invested, but looking back on it now, it really wasn't as bad as I felt in the moment. The main event was setting itself up to potentially push one of the women towards a title shot and with her milestone submission, Jessica Andrade did just that. First round standing arm triangle wasn't on my MMA bingo card for the weekend, but it really was a solid way to cap it off. I did catch the Bellator main card after the fact, but I just couldn't get invested in that either for some reason, except for Raufeon Stots, that guy is must see tv. Let's get into this fight a bit.
Because this fight didn't last very long, I don't have as much to say or breakdown as normal, but I think there are still some takeaways. When it comes to Andrade, she was much more patient and controlled this fight, which I think is a good thing in the long run. Andrade's forward pressure and pace is a huge part of her game, but at the same time, she was walking into a lot of huge strikes. If she can find a balance between pressure and defense, then that is really where she can be dangerous. She was still absorbing damage from range against Lemos, but she wasn't just blindly walking into it, which will help her going forward. When she saw the opening, she did come forward and got into the clinch, which is where she needed to be. When Andrade grabbed on to Lemos, they were in a bit of an unusual position, which allowed Andrade to grab on to the arm triangle. She said it was something that she had practiced, which I definitely believe because if she hadn't, I don't know how someone would've just come up with that on the spot. When she grabbed onto the choke, I wasn't sure what kind of squeeze it would take to finish it from that position. Obviously Andrade is strong, but I had kind of assumed that there was a technique based reason that we hadn't seen that choke from that position before. When she didn't let go, I knew she had it locked in, but it still wasn't clear how close it was to being finished. There was one angle they showed where it looked like Lemos was actually gasping for air or trying to get space and then I knew not only was the choke in for real, but it was actually close. It wasn't more than a few seconds later that Lemos tapped and immediately fell to the ground after Andrade let her go. Andrade took some damage early, especially on her legs, but she got the fight where she needed it and didn't waste any time. It was a great performance from her and she was able to insert herself right back into the thick of the title conversation.
Where exactly she fits into that title picture will largely depend on what happens between Rose Namajunas and Carla Esparza. If Rose retains her title, then Andrade is right in the mix for an opportunity. If Esparza gets the win, then the division is a lot more open to new challengers. An Esparza win likely makes the Zhang Weili vs Joanna Jedrzejczyk fight for the number one contender spot. Since Rose has already beaten both Weili and Joanna twice, the likelihood that they are given a third opportunity isn't particularly high, at least right now. Andrade has also lost to Rose once, but it wasn't for the title and she's also beaten Rose once. There doesn't seem to be any real push towards the trilogy from the general public, but I think another win will put her in a spot where she can't really be denied. When the new rankings come out on Tuesday, I expect to see Andrade either 4th or 5th, which will put her either right behind or right in front of McKenzie Dern, who is the first person I want to talk about when it comes to her next opponent. Both women are coming off of wins and are looking to make a title push. This seems like the next logical step for the both of them because, I assume, they'll be right next to each other in the rankings. Dern will benefit greatly from having a former champion on her resume and Andrade will get the rub of defeating a fighter that a lot of people like and pay attention to. I don't know that a former champion really needs that kind of thing, but it can't hurt. It will also be a fresh face for her and I think conquering new challenges is important for someone in Andrade's spot. If they want to push Andrade a little faster, they could go the route of Marina Rodriguez. In my mind, Rodriguez is the current number one contender and I'm not completely sure that she even needs to fight again for the title shot. Rose and Carla is only a couple of weeks away, so they'll need another challenger after that. If Rodriguez doesn't already have that spot locked up, a win over Andrade would certainly do it. There is also no way that Andrade turns down any number one contender fight, so there's no reason to worry about it from that side. Those two options are the most likely in my eyes. One of Weili or Joanna could make some sense, but Andrade has already lost to both of them, so I don't think those fights are particularly high on the list of things to do for the UFC. I don't really think Nina Nunes or Yan Xiaonan matchups really do anything for the division either. If it was up to me, I kind of like the idea of the Dern fight a little more, but I wouldn't complain about either.
As for Amanda Lemos, she really wasn't that bad. She was winning the early exchanges in the fight and was doing a good job of controlling how everything was going. Her cardio was a huge question and she was able to control the pace and keep things slow, which was going to be important if she had any hopes of winning a decision. Her hands looked fast and crisp, while her leg kicks were probably the most effective thing that happened for either side before Andrade locked in the submission. She was doing a lot of things well, but it looks like she may have just over extended herself a bit and Andrade closed the distance and grabbed onto her. She wasn't able to fight off the arm triangle and couldn't hold out until Andrade burned her arms out, but I can't speak to how difficult those things are. I'm sure there is something she could've done defensively to try and escape, but it looked pretty tight to me. While that would've been a huge win for Lemos, I don't think this a massive setback or a career altering loss of any degree. If we're being honest, this was just way too much too soon for Lemos. The best win of her career is Angela Hill and most people thought she lost that fight. To just scrape by one of the gatekeepers of the division (using the term respectfully of course) and then go right to a former champion and multi division title challenger was just way too fast. Lemos was just biting off way more than she could chew here and there's nothing wrong with that, we just know now that she needs an opponent that is closer to where Hill is at.
As for who exactly that opponent could be? There's really no shortage of options. The only opponents in the rankings that she's fought are Hill and Andrade, so she could go in any number of directions. Luana Pinheiro is currently ranked 15 (I assume she'll be removed when Andrade is added) and she's had a couple of fights cancelled. She was booked to fight Jessica Penne twice and it was supposed to be this coming weekend. That puts her on a similar schedule as Lemos assuming she was in a full camp. If she opts to wait, I think that is a solid fight for the both of them. A lot of the other fighters in her range are currently booked, except for Penne, who just pulled out of the Pinheiro fight, I assume with an injury. Another option is the veteran Tecia Torres, who is coming off of a loss of her own. This would present a solid opportunity for the both of them to get back in the win column against another woman who is also coming off of a loss. I don't really have a good feel for what the UFC is looking to do with her next. Obviously they think highly of her to put her in there with Andrade, but her resume has her at a bit of a different level. Given that they gave her a borderline top 5 opponent this time, I think the Tecia Torres fight may be the direction they try to go with her. I don't really have a problem with that fight and it will allow them to stand and strike, which is probably what they're both looking for after being grappled to losses in their previous fights. I suppose I am ok with that fight being made. I don't really have a strong opinion on who I want to see Lemos fight next. Maybe Virna Jandiroba after she fights Angela Hill next month? Any of those sound like solid options for her next appearance.
What do you guys think? What did you take away from the fight? How close do you think Jessica Andrade is to the title? Who should she fight next? What about Amanda Lemos? What tier of fighter do you think she is in? Who should she be fighting next time out? Leave your thoughts in the comments. Thanks for reading and have a good one.
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