After starting off the year really well, we've started to regress back towards the middle of the pack the last two weeks. We're looking for a bounce back week and I think this might be the week for it. There's a few fights where the result seems to be pretty clear, but this is still MMA so I don't want to get too confident. This admittedly isn't the best card ever, but at the same time, I can't help but look forward to it. Clay Guida and Jessica Andrade are almost guaranteed to put on interesting fights every time they're out there, so I don't think this card can be a complete dud. There's some other interesting fighters that I'm looking forward to seeing including Alexandr Romanov and Charles Jourdain. Just to be clear, my picks will be in the bolded font, and the real results will be listed next to it in italics after the fight is official. Let's go.
Dean Barry defeats Mike Jackson Result: Jackson by DQ (0-1)
We start with one of those easier fights to pick. Mike Jackson's only two UFC fights were a loss to Mickey Gall and his win over CM Punk that was turned into a no contest. Both of those fights were quite awhile ago and I'm not sure how much better he really is now. Barry is making his UFC debut in this fight, but I suspect that he can win this fight in both the striking and the grappling, whichever he prefers. The betting odds will tell you all you need to know about this one.
Marcin Prachnio defeats Philipe Lins Result: Lins by decision (0-2)
This is one of the closer fights on the betting odds, but I like Prachnio in this one. Neither fighter looks to wrestle much and Prachnio is going to throw strikes with much better volume. He does take a bit more damage than you would like, but I like his ability to win a decision if it goes there. Lins's path to victory is via knockout, but I don't think he throws enough to have a good chance of landing that big shot. He's also cutting weight to 205 for the first time in a minute, so I'm not sure how he'll look after the big cut.
Preston Parsons defeats Evan Elder Result: Parsons by decision (1-2)
Elder is another fighter making his UFC debut and he comes in with an undefeated record. Most of his wins come via knockout, so I expect that is what he will want to do here. Parsons probably has a more well rounded skillset and that is where I'll lean in this one. He has quite a few submissions on his resume and I wouldn't be surprised if he got to one here. He showed an ability to throw strikes with good volume in his UFC debut, but he took way too much damage on the feet. I think this one could really go either way, but I'll lean Parsons.
Aoriqileng defeats Cameron Else Result: Aoriqileng by KO (2-2)
Should be an interesting fight here. Aoriqileng has lost both of his UFC fights so far, but he hasn't necessarily looked bad. He's thrown strikes with good volume and has been able to land some takedowns at a decent rate. Else didn't have a great showing in his debut and ultimately gassed out after absorbing too many strikes. He didn't land many strikes of his own either. Having a cardio issue against someone who will push a pace like Aoriqileng isn't ideal here and that is why I'm going with Aoriqileng.
Tyson Pedro defeats Ike Villanueva Result: Pedro by KO (3-2)
I have to go with Pedro here, but I can't say it is a true lock. Pedro is coming off of a very extended layoff due to injuries, so it is impossible to say exactly how he'll look and react. He's a low output striker, which always makes me a bit anxious, but I think this is a good matchup for him. Villanueva is going to be willing to exchange and he has legitimate power. However, he absorbs too many strikes and, as he's aged, his chin doesn't hold up the way it would have in the past. I think Pedro eventually finds the mark and gets the finish. Don't completely rule out Hurricane Ike finding his own knockout though.
Dwight Grant defeats Sergey Khandozhko Result: Khandozhko by KO (3-3)
This one may end up being an ugly fight. Matching up two low volume strikers isn't usually a recipe for fireworks, but here we are. I don't expect to see either guy really shooting for takedowns either, so that will limit this to largely boxing. If either fighter can provide even a little bit of volume, the fight is there for the taking. As it currently stands, I have to give a slight lean to Grant's power. If each fighter is only going to be throwing 2-3 strikes a minute, I have to go with Grant since his strikes will be more impactful when he lands.
Marc-Andre Barriault defeats Jordan Wright Result: Barriault by sub (4-3)
Wright is going to come out and start this fight strong. He's going to enter the pocket and look to exchange. He's looking for the finish, but leaves himself open to being finished in return. Barriault is coming off of a really quick knockout loss, but I like him to bounce back here. If he gets out of the first round, I think the fight is his to lose. As long as he avoids the early knockout, he should be fine. Avoiding that knockout can be easier said than done against Wright, who is going to come forward and force the action, but I think Barriault can do enough to survive the early onslaught and get the win.
Charles Jourdain defeats Lando Vannata Result: Jourdain by sub (5-3)
This is a tough fight to pick. If Jourdain fights to the best of his ability, then I think he should get the win somewhat convincingly. However, it isn't easy to rely on seeing the very best version of him from fight to fight. Vannata may be the better grappler in this one, but I don't know if the difference is enough to really effect the outcome of this fight. I think we see the version of Jourdain where he opens things up a little more and is the more active and dynamic striker.
Alexandr Romanov defeats Chase Sherman Result: Cancelled
I expect that we will see Romanov on top in this fight and he will either ground and pound his way to victory or find a submission. If somehow Sherman can keep it standing, then he has a chance. Sherman has decent power and low kicks. He will also strike with a pretty good volume for heavyweight, but taking this fight on short notice may just stack too much against him. Sherman was submitted by Jake Collier his last time out and Romanov is a significantly better grappler than Collier. I have to go with Romanov in this one.
Montana De La Rosa defeats Maycee Barber Result: Barber by decision (5-4)
Maycee Barber has a lot of the same issues that Charles Jourdain has. She's just very inconsistent from fight to fight. If we knew we were getting the best Maycee Barber, she would be the easy pick here. Barber is much stronger and more powerful, but she'll have a length disadvantage here. De La Rosa is probably the better grappler, but she won't be as strong as Barber. If she can keep Maycee on the ends of her punches before closing the distance and working for takedowns, I think she can get the win. Barber hasn't looked good off of her back, so I like De La Rosa to grind out a decision win.
Clay Guida defeats Claudio Puelles Result: Puelles by sub (5-5)
I can't believe it is 2022 and I'm still picking Clay Guida to win UFC fights, but here we are. In the grappling, these two may be fairly even, but I think I trust Guida more to stay off the bottom. Puelles does have the better submissions though, so maybe that deters Guida from doing as much wrestling as he normally would. If the fight stays standing, I think Guida also has an edge. He is generally a more willing striker than Puelles, so I think this fight favors him in more than enough ways.
Jessica Andrade defeats Amanda Lemos Result: Andrade by sub (6-5)
I did a full preview for this one, so I'll keep it short. As long as Andrade doesn't get finished or become severely compromised early, I think this is her fight to lose. Lemos will be dangerous in the early going, but we saw her gas out against Angela Hill and Andrade is much better than Hill. Andrade is going to come forward and put on the pressure, which will only drain Lemos faster. After this fight gets out of the first round, Andrade should be the heavy favorite. I expect to see Andrade get into the clinch and work for takedowns where I expect her to have the biggest advantage.
That's it for me on this card. What do you guys think? Who is your lock of the night? Let me know if you're riding with me or fading? What do you think of the card in general? I'll be back to update this and my record after the event as always. Thanks for reading and have a good one.
UPDATE:
Another week and another mediocre performance. I don't know what it was, but after this card started, I just couldn't get into it. I just felt so emotionally disconnected from the action this week for whatever reason. I think the Jackson fight really killed the vibe and then the huge delay in the middle of the card killed whatever momentum it had.
We'll start by going over the losses. Honestly, I don't think Mike Jackson really wanted to be there. Now, he did get fouled for real multiple times, which is out of his control, but he just didn't really look like someone who was dying to be in the cage to me. Dean Barry was completely out of control though and he let a win get away from him because of it. I really don't have much interest in seeing either one of them fight in the near future. Prachnio definitely gassed out first in his fight, but Lins actually looked really good at 205. He really put in the work to cut down the right way, so good for him. The Grant fight could've gone either way, I'm just glad they didn't stand and stare at each other the whole time. Maycee Barber did what I though she could, but wouldn't do. That's a loss that doesn't surprise me because I knew it was an option. If she fights like that all the time, she might actually be something yet. Claudio Puelles pulled off another knee bar. I thought Guida's pure wrestling would be enough to deal Puelles submission attemps and it was for a little. When Puelles grabbed onto the leg, it was basically over within a blink of an eye. Great win for him.
We did have some pretty solid wins though. Parsons vs Elder was the best fight of the night and that was the debut for Elder. Parsons was fully prepared and likely swung it in his favor, but if Elder can fight like that on short notice up a weight class, he's someone to keep an eye on. Aoriqileng looked good up a weight class himself. He has improvements to make, but he finally showed us the potential we all thought he had. Tyson Pedro beat Ike Villanueva and I think we all saw that coming. Pedro had been off for so long and he's such a big and powerful guy, it was really only a matter of time before he put Ike down. He started it with the leg kicks and the finished him on the ground. I'm interested to see if he can really recapture some of the momentum he had pre injury. I never would've guessed that Marc-Andre Barriault would've gotten a submission, but I wouldn't have really guessed that Jordan Wright would've been shooting takedowns either. Either way, it was a nice bounce back win for him. Charles Jourdain got a nice submission win in his own right. He started a bit slow, but he got the knock down and jumped on the neck for the finish. Finally, Jessica Andrade looked good in her first round win. We all knew she was extremely strong, so when she latched onto the arm triangle, I thought it had a chance. Once Lemos looked like she started to panic, I knew it was a real attempt and then she got the tap. That is a big win for her to put herself back into the thick of things at strawweight.
Weekly Record: 6-5
Previous Year to Date Record: 98-50
Updated Year to Date Record:104 - 55
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